Cillmatic

Where do we pick?

941 posts in this topic

You reckon? It's not an amazing class by any stretch and I'd say both Tunsil and Stanley could have gone top five in any other recent draft class (maybe not 2014, but Jake Matthews went at 6). It's good that a couple of the teams we've fallen behind (49ers, Cowboys) probably won't be interested in a LT, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Chargers took Tunsil and Stanley went to Miami or Jville (the Jags have recently gone on an annoying run of drafting guys I like....). Hell, even the Browns might be interested if they can flog off Joe Thomas for whatever asking price they have at the time.

Obviously it's too early to say for sure, but that's how I see it atm.

One other point, while I'm looking at the draft order, is that the Browns and Steelers losing single-handedly puts four more losses on our SOS column, which might prove useful when the dust starts to settle.

I think it's very possible Stanley or Tunsil and Hargreaves and/or Ramsey are there for us in the top 10. We'll need to stay in the top 10, though. I also think Treadwell is another likely option for us where we'll pick.
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Treadwell becomes a real value option now, if Stanley falls that is immense value. Also Myles Jack and jaylon Smith become real options. Less pressure actually makes this look not so bad

If Stanley's there, I'm buying a plane ticket to wherever the hell the draft is this time and handing in the card myself. Treadwell was one I was going to mention as a possibility, and him and Breshad would form a really nice red zone duo.

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Treadwell becomes a real value option now, if Stanley falls that is immense value. Also Myles Jack and jaylon Smith become real options. Less pressure actually makes this look not so bad

Was thinking the same thing but I just can't see Ozzie taking a WR in the first round two years in a row. VH3 or Stanley is looking more likely by the week. 

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Was thinking the same thing but I just can't see Ozzie taking a WR in the first round two years in a row. VH3 or Stanley is looking more likely by the week.

I think Ozzie would take Treadwell but it depends on who's there. We need a WR as well.
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I think Ozzie would take Treadwell but it depends on who's there. We need a WR as well.

Treadwell is a poor man's Dez Bryant. Not saying I wouldn't take that, but that's a bit of a reach for a top 10 draft pick especially since there will be a handful of talented WR's in the second round.

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I think it's very possible Stanley or Tunsil and Hargreaves and/or Ramsey are there for us in the top 10. We'll need to stay in the top 10, though. I also think Treadwell is another likely option for us where we'll pick.

I agree it's definitely possible that Stanley or Tunsil drop, but at this (admittedly early) stage it feels like it's more hope than anything else. Obviously there's a lot of draft process still to play out, but we'll see what happens - you know I'd be learning to do cartwheels and then doing cartwheels if we somehow landed one of them. I agree about staying in the top 10 - as filthy as it sounds it may be best in the long run if we lose to the Bengals next week.

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Treadwell is a poor man's Dez Bryant. Not saying I wouldn't take that, but that's a bit of a reach for a top 10 draft pick especially since there will be a handful of talented WR's in the second round.

Why is it a reach? Can you name me 10 guys you'd take over him?
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I agree it's definitely possible that Stanley or Tunsil drop, but at this (admittedly early) stage it feels like it's more hope than anything else. Obviously there's a lot of draft process still to play out, but we'll see what happens - you know I'd be learning to do cartwheels and then doing cartwheels if we somehow landed one of them. I agree about staying in the top 10 - as filthy as it sounds it may be best in the long run if we lose to the Bengals next week.

I honestly feel like one of Tunsil or Stanley falls to our pick. I think it's a pretty good chance it happens. I can see the Jaguars take one if they're there, but they could do many different things with their pick. It's hard to say what they'll do.
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Why is it a reach? Can you name me 10 guys you'd take over him?

No, but we have more pressing needs other than a WR. Do you think Treadwell will be an elite playmaker? 

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No, but we have more pressing needs other than a WR. Do you think Treadwell will be an elite playmaker?

We need a WR, though, and he's a pretty talented WR. I'm not saying I'm in love with the idea, but I think it would be foolish to just pass on him because "we need other positions" and because we could "find another WR in the second, third, fourth rounds." That type of gambling caused us to miss out on good players at times.
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We need a WR, though, and he's a pretty talented WR. I'm not saying I'm in love with the idea, but I think it would be foolish to just pass on him because "we need other positions" and because we could "find another WR in the second, third, fourth rounds." That type of gambling caused us to miss out on good players at times.

Good points. We shall see!

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I honestly feel like one of Tunsil or Stanley falls to our pick. I think it's a pretty good chance it happens. I can see the Jaguars take one if they're there, but they could do many different things with their pick. It's hard to say what they'll do.

Yeah, the Jags have a few ways they can go (VH3 or Ramsey would be good picks for them too, and they're essentially local boys) - and they might not even be picking ahead of us if they beat Norleans or the Texans next week. The Dolphins are another wild card, as are the Titans, but I just feel like Tunsil and Stanley will both have really strong BPA cases when teams potentially looking for a LT get on the clock (hell, I would have been happy with Stanley at 4 had we lost today) so I wouldn't be surprised if they're both gone by the time we pick. But obviously I hope I'm wrong!

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Frankly it's a good thing. We were too far down for Bosa or Tunsil anyways. So now we can take whichever stud happens to fall to us without feeling guilty, like an Ogbah or even a Jalen Ramsey if he ends up dropping into our lap.

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wow by winning we are looking to pick at 9? thats huge. 

 

not that i'm mad because i live for beating pitt but 9th draft pick with 5 wins?

Edited by pep_meister
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Well, the saints are gonna beat Jacksonville. Does that put us at 8?

Yep, we were going to be at 8 after that game no matter what happened (unless they can draw, in which case I suspect we'd be at 7).

 

And we all buy Jags jerseys for when they face the Texans next week.

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If the Bengals win they'll likely sit some of their starters next week. The Ravens have a real possibility of ending the season at 6-10 (with a 4-2 division record, oddly enough). That would probably put us in the 10-14 range. I'd be alright with that. Alexander, Ogbah, or Treadwell would still be on the board and likely turn out to be a fairly good pick for us.

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With Treadwell and Smith a tier after that. Still need to look into Myles Jack. Also not sold on Stanley yet so he's a bit in flux for me.

Myles Jack is an animal.
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What's the lowest we can possibly pick? Is top 5 still realistic?

No. You need four or less wins to really lock up a top 5 pick. There would be a small chance of getting pick 5 with five wins, but our strength of schedule is higher than most of the other 5 win teams. I think 8th pick is the highest the Ravens could get, with possibly picking as low as 15th. Depending on next week's games, that's the general range we'll be picking in.

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Not like it's really needed, but this is the provisional order after the Saints game:

 

1. Tennessee Titans: 3-12 (.487 strength of schedule) 
2. Cleveland Browns: 3-12 (.536 SOS) 
3. San Diego Chargers: 4-11 (.518 SOS)
4. Dallas Cowboys: 4-11 (.540 SOS) 
5. San Francisco 49ers: 4-11 (.549 SOS) 
6. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-10 (.464 SOS)
7. Miami Dolphins: 5-10 (.473 SOS) 
8. Baltimore Ravens: 5-10 (.518 SOS)

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-9 (.478 SOS) 

10. New York Giants: 6-8 (.496 SOS)**

11. Philadelphia Eagles: 6-9 (.513 SOS) (3-8 conference)

12. New Orleans Saints: 6-9 (.513 SOS) (4-7 conference)

13. Detroit Lions: 6-9 (.531 SOS) 
14. Chicago Bears: 6-9 (.540 SOS) 
15. Indianapolis Colts: 7-8 (.504 SOS) 
16. Oakland Raiders: 7-8 (.509 SOS) 

 

I'm surprised there are only three 5-10 teams atm, but our SOS is only going to have us at the bottom of the pile. Need the 9ers, Cowboys or Chargers to win next week and hope we can pip them in terms of SOS.

 

With our current SOS we could fall to the 13th pick if we win next week. We got CJ with the 17th pick after barely missing the playoffs from an underwhelming 2013 season. Considering how much worse this season has been, I have to say picking 13th would be really a underwhelming consolation for everything we've gone through (beside sweeping the Steelers).

Edited by Inqui
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Not like it's really needed, but this is the provisional order after the Saints game:

1. Tennessee Titans: 3-12 (.487 strength of schedule)

2. Cleveland Browns: 3-12 (.536 SOS)

3. San Diego Chargers: 4-11 (.518 SOS - 3-7 in conference, 0-4 in division)

4. Dallas Cowboys: 4-11 (.540 SOS)

5. San Francisco 49ers: 4-11 (.549 SOS)

6. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-10 (.464 SOS)

7. Miami Dolphins: 5-10 (.473 SOS)

8. Baltimore Ravens: 5-10 (.518 SOS - 3-7 in conference, 2-2 in division)

9. New Orleans Saints: 6-9 (.513 SOS)

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-9 (.478 SOS)

11. New York Giants: 6-8 (.496 SOS)**

12. Philadelphia Eagles: 6-9 (.513 SOS)

13. Detroit Lions: 6-9 (.531 SOS)

14. Chicago Bears: 6-9 (.540 SOS)

15. Indianapolis Colts: 7-8 (.504 SOS)

16. Oakland Raiders: 7-8 (.509 SOS)

I'm surprised there are only three 5-10 teams atm, but our SOS is only going to have us at the bottom of the pile. Need the 9ers, Cowboys or Chargers to win next week and hope we can pip them in terms of SOS.

With our current SOS we could fall to the 13th pick if we win next week. We got CJ with the 17th pick after barely missing the playoffs from an underwhelming 2013 season. Considering how much worse this season has been, I have to say picking 13th would be really a underwhelming consolation for everything we've gone through (sweeping the Steelers aside).

Thanks for the updates Bro. You're the real MVP.
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Thanks for the updates Bro. You're the real MVP.

I got yo' back (aside from having to make a couple of minor corrections).

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question... if we win next week possibly facing the bengals bench, and end up in the teens, does leonard floyd come into play? he may not be a system fit, but our system seems a little dated anyway and a guy like floyd could be a nice spark to bring some explosiveness to a team that desperately needs it, the value was way off for where we were picking before though. 

 

also, gimme alexander in the teens over hargreaves in the top 5 all day, the value is much better. 

 

my biggest issue with falling behind, is our 2nd round pick, it hurts knowing we were basically geting 2 first rounders and now we arent

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Well if we're picking around 8-11 now, I wouldn't mind Buckner so long as he doesn't shoot up boards like I think he could.

Buckner has terrible technique I wouldn't take him in the 4th round in college you can rely on athleticism not in the NFL
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