Grantland's Bill Barnwell on defensive decline: 'starts with personnel woes'

[Inqui]

I'm surprised no-one's said anything about this one yet. Here's a good piece breaking down what's gone wrong on defence so far:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-anatomy-of-baltimores-lost-season/?ex_cid=GrantlandFB

 

The whole thing's worth a read, but here are a few paragraphs I think bear repeating:

 

 

The biggest difference between this year’s terrible Ravens defense and last year’s above-average Ravens defense, then, isn’t that they can’t get to the quarterback or that they’re giving up big plays. It’s that they can’t get off the field. Last year, the Ravens allowed opposing teams to convert 40.3 percent of their third downs, which was 17th in the league, essentially league-average. This year? That figure is up to 47.8 percent, and only the Jaguars (an even 50 percent!) have been less effective on third down. Nobody’s faced more third downs (92) than the Ravens.

 

 

 

The Ravens have seen each of their first six games decided by one score or less. That happens, but it’s rare: Just 13 teams have done that since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. If you regularly read this space, you know that teams tend to split those close games 50/50. The Ravens have not. Every one of those other teams that started with six one-score games managed to win at least two of those contests. The 12 previous teams went a combined 35-37 in those one-score games.

 

He also talked about the need for more turnovers and how that's the other significant area of decline for us.

 

Even with our dreadful secondary last year, there were quite a few games where the defence was able to come up with a couple of big sacks or turnovers that could stave off an opponent's comeback or get us the ball back for another shot at a winning drive.

 

Another key point is the loss of McPhee. While we've lost players like him in the past, this season we haven't been able to replicate what he brought to the table. The result is that we need to send more blitzes (read the article) and don't have the secondary to compensate.

 

If you're curious about our red zone stats (personally I thought this would be another big reason we're struggling more this year), they're actually about the same - top five:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-red-zone-scoring-pct

 

The bottom line is that we've been historically unlucky to not have a better record, but I'm also a huge believer in making your own luck and that these 50/50 games aren't truly 50/50. But Barnwell's also talked at length about the 2013 Texans (that got Clowney after going 2-14, nine of those losses coming by less than a score) and how teams that lose so many close games don't tend to stay that bad. And unlike the Texans, we actually have a respectable quarterback.

 

Where am I going with all of this? It always sucks to admit the season's effectively over so early, but I actually don't think we're as far off as our soon-to-be 1-7 record says we are.

[Willbacker]

Its just a hiccup. That's the only way I'm gonna look at it.

[jazz1988]

So you saying we have a chance to make it to the playoffs

[Static]

Turnovers was a big focus heading into the off season and somehow we got worse at them.

Thanks Peas

[Tru11]

mcphee , ngata,suggs, doom , elam and tyson  accounted for about 77 % of the sacks we got last season.

 

only guy left standing is doom.

 

its up to everyone to believe if those players and that production is easily to be replaced.

[Inqui]

So you saying we have a chance to make it to the playoffs

Haha, I wish. I think this season is as done as you can pronounce it to be at this early stage, but a few of the right moves should have us back on track next season.

[ratedr]

A Barnwell article that doesn't bash Flacco? I'm stunned.

 

And yes, our bad luck in these close games is not the norm. This season is dead but we're not that far away.

 

We will be a very popular "worst to first" pick next year.

[Purple Punishment]

So you saying we have a chance to make it to the playoffs

So you're saying there's a chance? Hahaha Jim Carey

[JoeyFlex5]

i dont think its personnel woes man, i think its a cam cameron situation. he is trying to force the players to adapt to his way of coaching, rather than adapting to his players, and that is just not how things work. he is up in the booth so he cant even communicate with his guys when they hit the sideline and need to make adjustments as a group, he just sits up there and calls the plays with zero regard for advantages and disadvantages. 

 

sure, our db's lack communication and they always seem to be in the wrong place, but when we have fielded like 6 different safeties in the past 3 years and they ALL look lost as if they have no clue whats going on, and our corners are regressing, it just seems to that there is one constant in play, and thats pees. 

 

i defended him for the longest time but i just cant anymore, there is no reason our defense should be THIS bad, i know weve had injuries, but we have looked so horrible that i dont know if the loss of suggs and will davis can explain this. pees still can not make adjustments at halftime, he is still not willing to alter his gameplans, he is still stuck in his ways. he HAS to go, immediately, this is so eerily similar to what we saw with cam cameron.

[Guest]

Are we really reading the "D Failed" on personnel article and predicting an about face next year?

Don't think the author implied an immediate about face.

Edited October 21, 2015 by Danny D

[PurpleCity5]

I definitely think its a personnel issue, but I don't think we should keep Pees either way. Personally I think we need changes, we aren't and haven't been good at the defensive side of the field for a while. I personally think to get back to our defensive dominance, we need to make changes, drastic ones. What will you do? Invest more on Defense and just expect the offense to at least put up points.

 

I think we botched some calls on Free Agents, It wasn't a good call to pass up on Corey Graham, especially when you consider how hard it is to find great coverage CBs at such a cheap price. Terrible idea quite honestly. Then there's McPhee. I can't call this one a bad idea since we were cap strapped, but I wish we would've made more efforts to keep him. We need him more than anyone outside of Suggs. I really think out of everyone from last season who's not on the roster now outside of Suggs, the person we miss the most is McPhee. His loss deeply hurts this team. I personally wanted to keep McPhee over Torrey, but I didn't think we would miss him this badly. 

 

I'd also like to add, we really need a FS. We need a FS who can play some damn coverage because quite frankly we don't have that. We need a coverage safety really badly. I know they're hard to find but if you can't draft one then pay up for one. FS is one of the positions you can't afford to just leave unplugged. Either you get one or continue to hope that draft hopefuls and cut-guys can step up. If you don't want to have to deal with this problem then so be it and pay up.

 

I said this in another post, I don't think we're as bad as our record says we are. We came close, what we need is some leadership and talent. 

[atomicfront]

I would say other than our linebackers, wide receivers and safeties and cornerbacks we aren't that bad 

[Ravens4Real]

The D needs a massive overhaul. With Suggs, Doom and Smith careers coming to an end, and most of our secondary being terrible. We are in for a transitional period on defense.

Jimmy Smith, Williams, Hill, Jernigan and Mosley are competent building blocks but that leaves 6 more positions to be fielded.

[lgcs27288]

I don't know if it still holds true after this week, but heading into week 6 the Ravens led the league with sacks on third down. It's crazy to think we have the most sacks on third down yet yield the 2nd highest 3rd down conversions allowed.

[flynismo]

I don't know if it still holds true after this week, but heading into week 6 the Ravens led the league with sacks on third down. It's crazy to think we have the most sacks on third down yet yield the 2nd highest 3rd down conversions allowed.

That's almost certainly because we keep letting teams move the chains, not getting off the field...and giving us more sack opportunities as a result, in addition to the third down conversion rate

[HomeoftheBRAVENS]

That's almost certainly because we keep letting teams move the chains, not getting off the field...and giving us more sack opportunities as a result, in addition to the third down conversion rate

 

Stats don't always tell the whole story.

[ratedr]

I don't know if it still holds true after this week, but heading into week 6 the Ravens led the league with sacks on third down. It's crazy to think we have the most sacks on third down yet yield the 2nd highest 3rd down conversions allowed.

This is likely a function of us facing more 3rd downs than any other team.

[Inqui]

Are we really reading the "D Failed" on personnel article and predicting an about face next year?

Don't think the author implied an immediate about face.

The author didn't talk about next season, he just said that even if we start winning those 50/50 games this season it's really unlikely to get us beyond 6-10 this season. The about-face was my own opinion, and I really don't think it's that unreasonable. You can point out a long list of holes we have now, but we had pretty much all of them last season as well and were just a few plays away from another AFCCG appearance. We're not as completely dysfunctional as a 1-5 record usually implies.

 

The about-face has also been written about a lot by the same guy in the past 12 months - just not about the Ravens. Even if we do absolutely nothing in the coming offseason, it only makes statistical sense that we win more than we are now.

[Guest]

To my reading, you hit it squarely on the head. Same issue as the linked writer in the "OP".

We are suffering from a talent decline. We've let too many "expensive" pieces go and substituted "cheaper" less effective players.

I rewatched the Frisco game and C.J. Mosely is struggling tremendously. He really cannot cover to save his life. He doesn't always tackle well either. I don't know if he's hurt or getting worn down.

Other than S.Smith we don't have an effective WR and Steve is getting worn down as well.

We are walking into an angry Cardinals team, (like we used to be after a loss). Then we have to facePhilip Rivers and he's gonna shred our secondary. After that we get Blake Bortles, who has come to life if anyone is watching with a top flight receiving corps.

I'm not sure what we are going to do. 3-13 is looking realistic. Oz has a trick in his pocket though. It's his lucky Bama Rabbits Foot.

I definitely think its a personnel issue, but I don't think we should keep Pees either way. Personally I think we need changes, we aren't and haven't been good at the defensive side of the field for a while. I personally think to get back to our defensive dominance, we need to make changes, drastic ones. What will you do? Invest more on Defense and just expect the offense to at least put up points.

 

I think we botched some calls on Free Agents, It wasn't a good call to pass up on Corey Graham, especially when you consider how hard it is to find great coverage CBs at such a cheap price. Terrible idea quite honestly. Then there's McPhee. I can't call this one a bad idea since we were cap strapped, but I wish we would've made more efforts to keep him. We need him more than anyone outside of Suggs. I really think out of everyone from last season who's not on the roster now outside of Suggs, the person we miss the most is McPhee. His loss deeply hurts this team. I personally wanted to keep McPhee over Torrey, but I didn't think we would miss him this badly. 

 

I'd also like to add, we really need a FS. We need a FS who can play some damn coverage because quite frankly we don't have that. We need a coverage safety really badly. I know they're hard to find but if you can't draft one then pay up for one. FS is one of the positions you can't afford to just leave unplugged. Either you get one or continue to hope that draft hopefuls and cut-guys can step up. If you don't want to have to deal with this problem then so be it and pay up.

 

I said this in another post, I don't think we're as bad as our record says we are. We came close, what we need is some leadership and talent.

[PurpleCity5]

To my reading, you hit it squarely on the head. Same issue as the linked writer in the "OP".

We are suffering from a talent decline. We've let too many "expensive" pieces go and substituted "cheaper" less effective players.

I rewatched the Frisco game and C.J. Mosely is struggling tremendously. He really cannot cover to save his life. He doesn't always tackle well either. I don't know if he's hurt or getting worn down.

Other than S.Smith we don't have an effective WR and Steve is getting worn down as well.

We are walking into an angry Cardinals team, (like we used to be after a loss). Then we have to facePhilip Rivers and he's gonna shred our secondary. After that we get Blake Bortles, who has come to life if anyone is watching with a top flight receiving corps.

I'm not sure what we are going to do. 3-13 is looking realistic. Oz has a trick in his pocket though. It's his lucky Bama Rabbits Foot.

We have been picking too low in the draft lately so to your point, it limits us from drafting talented players, not to mention our mantra of keeping it conservative in FA. To my belief, we didn't get better in the offseason. I don't believe we got worse, injuries are hitting us square in the mouth and its crazy quite honestly that we have to go through this many guys getting hurt. Its a bump on the road.

As far as Smith Sr. goes, oh yeah he will burn out. No man at 36 can take on this kind of workload, this is becauses we were depandant on Marlon to step up, which I really thought we shouldn't have and Aiken, who indeed has stepped up but shouldn't be the starter. We were relying on Perriman to be that #2 and quite frankly I have no idea whats up with his injury. This whole saga has been absurd.

Philip Rivers passed for 500 against Greenbay and they have a great secondary, if Kaepernick can do what he did then I do want to imagine what Philip Rivers will do.

That said, I don't see us getting 3 or 4 wins. I just don't. I think we'll pick it up, but the season is in the books.

[berad]

Injuries hurt, sure, and if Sizzle was here I'm sure it would be better but that doesn't help us now. Isn't it on the coaching staff to get the most out of these players and put them in position to succeed? If not, what do they get paid for. They've been underperforming, miscommunicating, and failing late. These are repeated issues over the years.

 

Also from the article:

 

 

If “smdh” could be a coverage, this would be it. The Ravens have no deep safety on the play and send five men after Colin Kaepernick without really getting close. They have defenders in intermediate zones, but Wright has to know he can’t get beat deep by Smith, because there’s absolutely no help behind him. That’s exactly what happens,² even as Wright tries to interrupt the double move with illegal contact. This is asking a lot out of Wright in his first game this season, and truthfully, it was too much.

 

I'll also reference two posts from our other members in another thread

 

http://boards.baltimoreravens.com/topic/65562-the-dean-pees-thread-merged/page-69?p=2256048#entry2256048

 

http://boards.baltimoreravens.com/topic/65562-the-dean-pees-thread-merged/page-70?p=2256343#entry2256343

 

We should be better than 27/pts game (27th in the NFL), 5.7 yds/play (22nd in the NFL), and the multitude of other horrendous stats. "Should" being the key word.

[ratedr]

Injuries hurt, sure, and if Sizzle was here I'm sure it would be better but that doesn't help us now. Isn't it on the coaching staff to get the most out of these players and put them in position to succeed? If not, what do they get paid for. They've been underperforming, miscommunicating, and failing late. These are repeated issues over the years.

 

Also from the article:

 

 

 

I'll also reference two posts from our other members in another thread

 

http://boards.baltimoreravens.com/topic/65562-the-dean-pees-thread-merged/page-69?p=2256048#entry2256048

 

http://boards.baltimoreravens.com/topic/65562-the-dean-pees-thread-merged/page-70?p=2256343#entry2256343

 

We should be better than 27/pts game (27th in the NFL), 5.7 yds/play (22nd in the NFL), and the multitude of other horrendous stats. "Should" being the key word.

That piece of the article you posted is pretty damning of Pees.

[Ravens2343]

That piece of the article you posted is pretty damning of Pees.

 

Second worst in the league in 3rd down conversions tells pretty much the whole story.  We cannot get off the field and our players get worn down which leads to injuries and poor play.  To make matters worse we have depth issues on defense due to injuries and guys not developing like we had hoped.  Nothing is going to change unless we replace Pees and bring in young talent from the draft and look into adding a piece or two in free agency

[ratedr]

I'm mostly shocked that Barnwell managed to write a comprehensive piece on our issues without bashing Flacco.

 

I know I already said it but anyone who is familiar with him has to be pretty surprised.

[callahan09]

Our defense is allowing the following stats vs how those opponent offenses are doing against other teams:

 

Points Scored: 27th ... 27.0 per game / 22.5 per game
Overall Yards: 27th ... 380.7 per game / 346.1 per game
Passing Yards: 27th ... 286.2 per game / 238.2 per game
QB Rating: 27th ... 101.7 / 89.8
Percent of Drives Ending in a Score: 29th ... 43.8% / 34.5%
Percent of Drives Ending in a Turnover: 30th ... 5.5% / 13.0%
Penalties: 29th ... 8.3 per game / Unknown
1st Downs Due to Penalty: T-28th ... 2.8 per game / 1.8 per game
3rd Down Conversions: 32nd ... 7.3 per game / 5.2 per game
3rd Down Percentage: 31st ... 47.8% / 39.5%

 

The numbers after the slash symbol are the stats for how the opponents we faced are doing against the other defenses they've faced.  So as you can see, we're allowing them WAY more than other defenses they're facing are.  The worst things in my opinion are those 3 that I underlined & bolded.  We aren't getting turnovers, we're allowing the opponent to score WAY too often, and we're not getting off the field on third downs.

 

Our opponents are scoring about 2.6 times for every turnover, but we're allowing opponents to score 8 times for every takeaway.  NOT GOOD how much worse we are than the other defenses that our opponents are facing.

Edited October 21, 2015 by callahan09

[Ravens4Real]

Injuries hurt, sure, and if Sizzle was here I'm sure it would be better but that doesn't help us now. Isn't it on the coaching staff to get the most out of these players and put them in position to succeed? If not, what do they get paid for. They've been underperforming, miscommunicating, and failing late. These are repeated issues over the years.

Also from the article:

I'll also reference two posts from our other members in another thread

http://boards.baltimoreravens.com/topic/65562-the-dean-pees-thread-merged/page-69?p=2256048#entry2256048

http://boards.baltimoreravens.com/topic/65562-the-dean-pees-thread-merged/page-70?p=2256343#entry2256343

We should be better than 27/pts game (27th in the NFL), 5.7 yds/play (22nd in the NFL), and the multitude of other horrendous stats. "Should" being the key word.

ESPN just ran an article today detailing and ranking the teams being hardest hit by injuries this year. They ranked the Ravens as being only the 14th worst. I believe they judged based on total missed games by starters.

While many use the excuse of injuries playing a part, ALL teams go through injuries and have to make it through. Many teams are going through much worse.

[Edgar]

Curious to see if Rashaan Melvin makes hay in New England.

[callahan09]

ESPN just ran an article today detailing and ranking the teams being hardest hit by injuries this year. They ranked the Ravens as being only the 14th worst. I believe they judged based on total missed games by starters.

While many use the excuse of injuries playing a part, ALL teams go through injuries and have to make it through. Many teams are going through much worse.

That article doesn't make any sense.

They didn't count "starts missed" for a lot of our players.  Matt Elam and Will Davis going to IR doesn't count towards their tally?  They didn't even mention Dennis Pitta.  They also don't take into consideration players playing banged up. They don't take into consideration that we've had to move our entire roster around all over the place because we have had such a high QUANTITY of injuries that we can't even field a team unless we release or IR players that otherwise wouldn't need it but we can't afford them to take up the roster spot for a single week while they recover!

[Ravens4Real]

That article doesn't make any sense.

They didn't count "starts missed" for a lot of our players. Matt Elam and Will Davis going to IR doesn't count towards their tally? They didn't even mention Dennis Pitta. They also don't take into consideration players playing banged up. They don't take into consideration that we've had to move our entire roster around all over the place because we have had such a high QUANTITY of injuries that we can't even field a team unless we release or IR players that otherwise wouldn't need it but we can't afford them to take up the roster spot for a single week while they recover!

I am pretty sure they were just including the perceived starters for the year. Elam was never going to start. You also can't really count Pitta since everyone knew he probably wouldn't play.

Will Davis, he was only here for three games. I'm not sure why they did not include him.

Edit: After re reading what the stipulations were for their findings, it stated that they were counting games missed for starters and integral special team players. Since Will Davis was our fourth CB, behind Smith, Webb and Arrington, he wouldn't be counted anyways. Same goes for Elam and Pitta. If they weren't expected to see the field to begin with, than they weren't counted.

Edited October 21, 2015 by Ravens4Real

[PurpleCity5]

To be fair to Pees, he is quite unlucky. A guy who came from a trade and look to be an integral part of the defense suffers another ACL tear(Will Davis), a guy who I had high hopes for. Then your most spirited leader and best Defensive player arguably goes down to an achilies tear. Who would've though Jimmy would slow down like this, he needs to step up. 

 

Still, I want Pees gone for purposes that we need a change in defensive philosophy. We need to make big adjustments and I don't see Pees being a part of that.