The bad draft myth.

[JEEPercreepermd]

Ok so I have been seeing a lot of posts and hearing a lot of people pointing to Ozzie drafting poorly over the last 5 years as a reason for this season'starts failures or struggles.

I don't agree.

Everything goes back to the start of the John Harbaugh era so well take it from there.

2008-

1- Flacco- Enough said. Franchise QB

2.Ray Rice- in the 2nd rlund

[redlobster]

This what I see :

 

2015 : Unknown but the only standout has been Nick Boyle and sometimes Davis when he doesn't take plays off

 

2014 : Mosley looked great rookie year, this year just average. Jeringan plays hard when he wants to, Gilmore looks good.

 

2013: Brandon Williams is the stud, Juice is ok and Wagner has looked terrible this year.

 

2012: KO is the only worthwhile mention

 

2011: Jimmy Smith looked good until this year, Torrey was good while here.

 

2010: Disaster beyond Arthur Jones and Pitta

 

2009: Oher was decent, Kruger played well his final year, Webb was good till hurt.

 

2008: Flacco and Rice were tops

Edited October 15, 2015 by redlobster

[JEEPercreepermd]

Stupid phone. .ugh. sorry about that everyone. I swear I was going somewhere with it!

[rmcjacket23]

The problem I have with the whole "Ozzie's been poor in the draft" logic is that it lacks context. In order to determine that he's been poor, you'd have to compare it to something...

 

So what are we comparing his recent draft picks too? If we are doing what we are supposed to be doing, and comparing his picks to the other 31 teams in the league, then if you really sat down and put them side by side, you'd see Ozzie has done pretty well. In particular, when compared to teams that have been drafting at similar positions in the draft, since its a lot easier to get a high quality player picking in the top 5 than it is picking in the bottom five.

 

If we are comparing Ozzie to his previous draft history from 10+ year ago, then no, he probably hasn't been as good. But again, league-wide, it appears the league hasn't been as great either, which is more of a product of the type of players available to be drafted.

 

The biggest myth, by far, is that Ozzie "hits" on like 70-80% of his draft picks. That's never been true in the history of this franchise or any franchise for that matter. In a typical draft, you're taking roughly 7-8 players, depending on different factors. The elite of the elite teams will get maybe 1-2 starters out of that group, and a solid role player or two, and that's on a good year. For the best of the best teams drafting (and you can research this and see for yourself), a good 50% of the players they draft will never go above respectable backup level in their career, and a good 20-25% won't even make it past ST player and annually fighting for a roster spot and eventually losing it to a younger guy.

[RaineV1]

The 2015 draft had 256 players drafted. 10 of them might become long term starters. Another 20 might work out as long term backups and special teams players. If you manage to select 2 players that helps you team every year then you're really beating the odds.

 

Also, as Mcjacket said, you can't say the Ravens have been bad at drafting without directly comparing them to other teams.

[FlackAttack]

This what I see :

 

2015 : Unknown but the only standout has been Nick Boyle and sometimes Davis when he doesn't take plays off

 

2014 : Mosley looked great rookie year, this year just average. Jeringan plays hard when he wants to, Gilmore looks good.

 

2013: Brandon Williams is the stud, Juice is ok and Wagner has looked terrible this year.

 

2012: KO is the only worthwhile mention

 

2011: Jimmy Smith looked good until this year, Torrey was good while here.

 

2010: Disaster beyond Arthur Jones and Pitta

 

2009: Oher was decent, Kruger played well his final year, Webb was good till hurt.

 

2008: Flacco and Rice were tops

 

mosley is still one of the better ilbs in the league and i still love this pick in 2014. sure hes been struggling with pass coverage but it has mostly to do with the overall defense failing with the schemes, execution, pass rush, etc. hes just one man. a great comparison is luke kuechly. dude knows where to be and has a motor but when the whole defense struggles, youll see him struggle as well in coverage. i will admit tho, mosely got JUKED by andy dalton a couple weeks ago.

 

if we decide to enter a massive rebuilding phase after this season, mosley is one of the few players im keeping.

[HomeoftheBRAVENS]

This what I see :

 

2015 : Unknown but the only standout has been Nick Boyle and sometimes Davis when he doesn't take plays off

 

2014 : Mosley looked great rookie year, this year just average. Jeringan plays hard when he wants to, Gilmore looks good.

 

2013: Brandon Williams is the stud, Juice is ok and Wagner has looked terrible this year.

 

2012: KO is the only worthwhile mention

 

2011: Jimmy Smith looked good until this year, Torrey was good while here.

 

2010: Disaster beyond Arthur Jones and Pitta

 

2009: Oher was decent, Kruger played well his final year, Webb was good till hurt.

 

2008: Flacco and Rice were tops

 

 

You forgot to add McPhee to that 2011 class and Dannell Ellerbe was a UDFA in 2009 so I would add him to the 2009 class also because I consider UDFA's to be free draft picks from that year.

Edited October 16, 2015 by HomeoftheBRAVENS

[ravensdan]

Quick trivia question. Which two rookie tight ends lead the league in catches?

[HomeoftheBRAVENS]

I forgot to add that Tucker was a UDFA in 2012 so he was another one of those "free draft picks" that you can throw in there.

[redrum52]

I forgot to add that Tucker was a UDFA in 2012 so he was another one of those "free draft picks" that you can throw in there.

Then the 2012 draft was a success.

[K-Dog]

Stupid phone. .ugh. sorry about that everyone. I swear I was going somewhere with it!

Are you going to finish ?

I feel set up ....

[K-Dog]

Quick trivia question. Which two rookie tight ends lead the league in catches?

One ones with the most and second most catches ?  *shrugs*

[ravensnick]

Getting two or three good players and some depth pieces from a draft should be considered a success. Very hard to do more than that in the long run. 

 

Ozzie has gotten some good player recently, especially in the later rounds. However, Ozzie has been a bit weak in the first and second rounds as of late. 2013 would be the prime example of this. 

[FlackAttack]

Getting two or three good players and some depth pieces from a draft should be considered a success. Very hard to do more than that in the long run. 

 

Ozzie has gotten some good player recently, especially in the later rounds. However, Ozzie has been a bit weak in the first and second rounds as of late. 2013 would be the prime example of this. 

 

^^^^ this. if a team gets 2 solid starters out of a draft thats considered a successful draft. if you disagree, look no further then patriots, packers, etc draft history.

 

ozzie is great at drafting, and a lot of people dont realize how much de costa has a hand in the drafting process as well. what ozzie usually struggles with is free agency. he has the right mindset when it comes to value, but fails to pick up the right players. if management is going to wait last minute for price dips, they better know who is worth snatching so late in the process. this, in my opinion, is where he rolls the dice and his luck is now running out.

Edited October 16, 2015 by FlackAttack

[Inqui]

Just go back to the 2014 draft, where to date he's only missed on one pick (Wenning, while the jury's out on Urban). Forget whether we landed a HoF guy out of that, 7/9 or 8/9 in one draft class is phenomenal.

[Cville-Raven]

Just go back to the 2014 draft, where to date he's only missed on one pick (Wenning, while the jury's out on Urban). Forget whether we landed a HoF guy out of that, 7/9 or 8/9 in one draft class is phenomenal.

Yeah those first 3 picks were ace

[Inqui]

Yeah those first 3 picks were ace

Exactly, and to get Crockett, Urschel, Camp, LT and Hurst as a freebie is a great deal too. Two starters, two great backups and one UDFA who can at least plug a hole is a really good haul. Have any other teams actually managed that?

[Maryland]

The problem is that Ozzie set the bar too high for himself drafting 2 HOFers his first year here. It's just not sustainable.

 

And that's all I have to add since the serious responses to this thread pretty much summed up how hard it is to draft successfully in this league. If you can get a couple bonafide starters and some solid depth every year, you're doing better than most. 

 

The Jags are one of those teams that exemplify how hard it is to draft. In 2013, they had a mere 6 players on their roster from 2011 and earlier. 

[FlackAttack]

Yeah those first 3 picks were ace

 

how are jernigan and brooks "ace" picks? both players have been under performing

[Tru11]

to me its a myth until the people that are saying it actually come with the stats to back it up.

 

1 thing i learned on this forum is that majority says a lot of things with nothing to back it up or will keep saying it even when stats and facts say otherwise.

[usmccharles]

to me its a myth until the people that are saying it actually come with the stats to back it up.

 

1 thing i learned on this forum is that majority says a lot of things with nothing to back it up or will keep saying it even when stats and facts say otherwise.

I highly doubt that is true. 

 

Excuse, i may be gone most of the day, have to go pick up my Bugatti in Beverly Hills

[JEEPercreepermd]

^^^^ this. if a team gets 2 solid starters out of a draft thats considered a successful draft. if you disagree, look no further then patriots, packers, etc draft history.

ozzie is great at drafting, and a lot of people dont realize how much de costa has a hand in the drafting process as well. what ozzie usually struggles with is free agency. he has the right mindset when it comes to value, but fails to pick up the right players. if management is going to wait last minute for price dips, they better know who is worth snatching so late in the process. this, in my opinion, is where he rolls the dice and his luck is now running out.

Eh, Ozzie has done well in free agency too. Usually finding solid, productive players on the cheap.

Carey Redding, Trevor Pryce, Willie Anderson, TJ Houshmanzadeh was a decent 1 year rental, Derrick Mason,

My original post was that we've gotten production out of every draft, some more than others, but this seasons record has nothing to do with Ozzie not drafting well.

The Ravens were handcuffed this year by the cap which happens. If nobody had been injured..Suggs,Perriman,Pitta,Gilmore,Dumervil,Webb, Davis, Monroe. .this team is probably 4-1 right now.

This is the 2007 season all over. Good core of talent, too many injuries to overcome.

[FlackAttack]

Eh, Ozzie has done well in free agency too. Usually finding solid, productive players on the cheap.

Carey Redding, Trevor Pryce, Willie Anderson, TJ Houshmanzadeh was a decent 1 year rental, Derrick Mason,

My original post was that we've gotten production out of every draft, some more than others, but this seasons record has nothing to do with Ozzie not drafting well.

The Ravens were handcuffed this year by the cap which happens. If nobody had been injured..Suggs,Perriman,Pitta,Gilmore,Dumervil,Webb, Davis, Monroe. .this team is probably 4-1 right now.

This is the 2007 season all over. Good core of talent, too many injuries to overcome.

 

no doubt ozzie has made some clutch short term fixes via free agency in the past, but my point is that strategy is starting to catch up with him. i'll give him the benefit of the doubt due to the injuries, but he could've been more aggressive with talent replacement at certain positions.

 

the amount of talent obtained compared to lost over the past couple seasons hasnt been nearly enough to stay afloat. the 80/20 philosophy is great but you have to know which position holds the largest constraint relative to the value. i knew from the day kyle arrington and kendrick lewis were signed they would not be the answer. i was surprised our organization were satisfied with our free agency moves going into the season.  even up to week 6, it seems they keep putting band aids on the secondary while completely bypassing our pass rush situation.

 

no doubt the cap was against us but we couldve still made some trades and a bit more aggressive in the free agent process. we failed miserably with snatching pass rush talent. you cant go into a season with two 30+ year old pass rushers and expect a rookie 4th round pick to be the answer for depth. that was the most important position to add depth and it was simply ignored. we have to start at the line on both sides of the ball before we fix anything else.

Edited October 16, 2015 by FlackAttack

[PurpleCity5]

how are jernigan and brooks "ace" picks? both players have been under performing

Look at the long term aspect. Jigg was great his rookie year, he's had a down sophomore year but that doesn't mean he'll be bad. I think he'll be great for us. 

[Tru11]

I highly doubt that is true. 

 

Excuse, i may be gone most of the day, have to go pick up my Bugatti in Beverly Hills

 

dont crash it !!!!

[FlackAttack]

to me its a myth until the people that are saying it actually come with the stats to back it up.

 

1 thing i learned on this forum is that majority says a lot of things with nothing to back it up or will keep saying it even when stats and facts say otherwise.

 

thats everywhere man. die hard sports fans, political fanatics, etc. the knee jerk reaction is more loud and hysterical which gives the illusion they are abundant. when in reality the exact opposite is true, because their tone and volume masks the small population.

[Guest]

Ok so I have been seeing a lot of posts and hearing a lot of people pointing to Ozzie drafting poorly over the last 5 years as a reason for this season'starts failures or struggles.

I don't agree.

Everything goes back to the start of the John Harbaugh era so well take it from there.

2008-

1- Flacco- Enough said. Franchise QB

2.Ray Rice- in the 2nd rlund

 

If the critique is bad drafts in the last five years, why have you gone back seven years to refute the contention?

 

Looking at the last five years, we have not had stellar drafts. I was hopeful these last two draft years may have turned the corner for us, but the evidence is they have not.  Supposedly it was drafting where we separated, but as we let key veterans go in the last five years, we are not replacing their contributions through the draft.

[rmcjacket23]

If the critique is bad drafts in the last five years, why have you gone back seven years to refute the contention?

 

Looking at the last five years, we have not had stellar drafts. I was hopeful these last two draft years may have turned the corner for us, but the evidence is they have not.  Supposedly it was drafting where we separated, but as we let key veterans go in the last five years, we are not replacing their contributions through the draft.

Compared to what? Again, without context, this whole "we haven't drafted well" stuff doesn't mean anything.

 

Does anybody actually bother to look at how OTHER teams are drafting and how well they've been drafting, particularly the teams that are drafting in the same areas of the draft that we are?

 

If we are comparing ourselves to how we used to draft, when we were getting guys like Suggs, Reed, Flacco, etc, then no, we haven't drafted as well. However, location in the draft has a lot to do with that, as does the talent pool coming out of college.

 

Context people. Context.

[usmccharles]

If the critique is bad drafts in the last five years, why have you gone back seven years to refute the contention?

 

Looking at the last five years, we have not had stellar drafts. I was hopeful these last two draft years may have turned the corner for us, but the evidence is they have not.  Supposedly it was drafting where we separated, but as we let key veterans go in the last five years, we are not replacing their contributions through the draft.

you cant judge the last two drafts just yet, for one, this season isnt even half way over and two, the year prior class is still developing.  A complete two years should be given to a draft class to evaluate

[Tru11]

If the critique is bad drafts in the last five years, why have you gone back seven years to refute the contention?

 

Looking at the last five years, we have not had stellar drafts. I was hopeful these last two draft years may have turned the corner for us, but the evidence is they have not.  Supposedly it was drafting where we separated, but as we let key veterans go in the last five years, we are not replacing their contributions through the draft.

 

compared to who?

 

based on what where the drafts not stellar?

 

how many teams did a better job the last 5 years?

 

what are you comparing to draw this conclusion????