Justin Tucker - Home DISAdvantage? Jarring Stats

[callahan09]

I saw this article from Jamison Hensley on the subject:

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/22733/justin-tuckers-home-field-disadvantage-in-baltimore

 

And my immediate reaction was: Well, most of Tucker's misses are from 50+ yards, so maybe he just tries more 50+ yarders at home than on the road?  And maybe opposing kickers attempt fewer, and that's why they have a higher kicking percentage at M&T than Tucker does?

 

Well... I couldn't have been more wrong.  So to add on to the things that Hensley wrote, I put this info together on Tucker:

 

He is only 1/8 in his career from 50+ at home (misses from 50, 50, 51, 54, 54, 55, and 57).
He is 47/50 from <50 at home (misses from 37, 44 and 47).

He is 15/16 from 50+ on the road (with the only miss being a 64 yard attempt).
He is 45/47 from <50 on the road (misses from 41 and 45).

So he is about equally as good on the road vs at home from under 50, although his shortest miss was at home and he is 96% on the road vs 94% at home from under 50 yards, so while it's very close, he is actually slightly better on the road for shorter kicks as well as for longer kicks...

 

But he is abysmal at home from 50+. His longest made kick at home is 53 yards. His longest on the road was 61 yards! And he has attempted exactly TWICE AS MANY 50+ yard kicks on the road as at home, but has only MADE ONE at home, and only MISSED ONE on the road.

Also his home field goal percentage is the worst in the NFL since he entered the league among qualifying kickers, and visiting kickers have a higher field goal percentage at M&T than Tucker does in that span, including being 8/10 from 50+ yards (misses from 51 and 57).

 

So Tucker is not only significantly worse at home than on the road, but other kickers are significantly better than him at M&T than he is as well.

 

So it really is a jarring set of statistics showing that he is just really bad at home.

 

What gives?  That's some really weird stuff.  Highly unexpected.

 

ON THE BRIGHT SIDE: He is easily the greatest NFL kicker of all time on the road, and by significant margins, including from 50+ yards, and we happen to often need those field goals more on the road than we need them at home.  Although that missed field goal would have been super nice to make against the Browns.  The miss gave the Browns great field position at the end of the half and they managed to convert it into a field goal of their own, a 6-point swing that if Tucker had made that kick, I believe 100% we would have won that game.  

 

But, if Darren Waller didn't commit a costly 3rd down penalty that ultimately resulted in the kick being a 51-yarder instead of a 36-yarder, we wouldn't be having this conversation I'm sure.  

 

OR if the coaches were on the ball and aware that Tucker is extremely unlikely to make a 51-yard field goal at M&T, maybe they would have been smart and ran the ball on 3rd-and-forever to pick up a couple yards and make it an easier kick.  Instead, they opted to try throwing for a long first down, resulting in an incomplete pass and so the 51-yard distance for that kick was stuck.  

 

LOTS of blame to go around for that particular sequence of events that I believe played a significant factor in us losing this game (but NOT NEARLY as big of a factor as the defense's atrocious performance in the second half).

[GrimCoconut]

Well, there is this...

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/21189/justin-tucker-toughest-place-to-kick-is-baltimore

 

 

Where’s the toughest place to kick in the NFL?

Tucker: This might be a surprise, but I think our stadium, M&T Bank Stadium. I think it’s the toughest stadium to kick in, in the league – at least among the stadiums I’ve had the opportunity to play in. The wind is always swirling in there. It will change directions in between kicks. It will change directions from the time that I’m running out from the sideline to the time I’m lined up to kick the ball. It can get cold out there, so sometimes it’s like kicking a cinderblock. All those things considered, I think we’ve got such a great thing going, and we still hit a really good ball in our stadium, and we try to hit a good ball everywhere else, too.

 

These numbers somewhat correlate to what he says here. Perhaps it's also a mental thing, I don't know. I still wouldn't want another kicker.

[AsianRice]

Tucker is human after; all we need a clutch kicker so there we have one.......

 

I agree that it is a mental thing that he didn't kick so well at home, comparing on the road game.  Possibly, he know he has so much love at home than any other kickers in there home.  It's sort of like trying to look good in front of your kids....

[usmccharles]

Time for a new kicker... :/

[PurpleCity5]

I'd love to keep Tucker honestly. Such a clutch kicker and has won us countless games. As far as contracts go, I'd look along the lines of what Stephen Gostkowski got from New England.

Edited October 13, 2015 by PurpleCity5

[H8R]

He's missed more than he should have , especially at home!

[H8R]

The funniest thing is... How often do you see a kick missed by by the opposition in our stadium? It's rare! I'd like to see the research vs all other kickers in M&T bank stadium.

[K-Dog]

Time for a new kicker... :/

Some people around here ......

[usmccharles]

Some people around here ......

Tell me about it....

[Tank 92]

Pay Tuck and in the future make sure won't don't need to kick a daggone 50+ FG at home!  Score TDs! 

Edited October 14, 2015 by Tank 92

[Dfence4champs2052]

Vexing problem. He has admitted our stadium was the toughest for him, and I thought it was gamesmanship to not have to admit an opponent's stadium was. That would be an obvious edge to them. But no I guess it's all legit. Still like him as our kicker though....nothing to do with this lol. 

 

[CorvusCorax]

He shouldn't be having to kick from 50+ yards away. The offense should put him in better position to score. 

[beanfigger]

He shouldn't be having to kick from 50+ yards away. The offense should put him in better position to score.

8 kicks from that distance in 27 home games since he's been here. I don't think that's something we need to get on the offense about.

[CorvusCorax]

8 kicks from that distance in 27 home games since he's been here. I don't think that's something we need to get on the offense about.

 

That is nearly 30% of his kicks, at home, which is nearly 1 out of every 3. That's a lot.

Edited October 18, 2015 by CorvusCorax

[beanfigger]

That is nearly 30% of his kicks, at home, which is nearly 1 out of every 3. That's a lot.

 

I don't know where you're getting those stats from. He's attempted 59 field goals at home in his career, 8 of which have been from 50+. That's less than 14%.

[CorvusCorax]

I don't know where you're getting those stats from. He's attempted 59 field goals at home in his career, 8 of which have been from 50+. That's less than 14%.

From you! 

 

8 kicks from that distance in 27 home games since he's been here. I don't think that's something we need to get on the offense about.

 

Do the math. I'm using your numbers. 

Edited October 18, 2015 by CorvusCorax