The Dean Pees Thread (merged)

[ravensdfan]

No, it's probably not fair to say 15th just flat out, but the chances of other teams have four defensive touchdowns scored against them is low. Some teams never even scored a defensive touchdown all season.

Thank you. I wasn't sure and honestly wasn't invested enough to go through and do the math. That is a flawed stat for everyone then and pretty silly when it shouldn't be too difficult to make it accurate.

[BmoreBird22]

Thank you. I wasn't sure and honestly wasn't invested enough to go through and do the math. That is a flawed stat for everyone then and pretty silly when it shouldn't be too difficult to make it accurate.

the Ravens had about twice as many turnovers against them as is normal (5 vs 2.5 per team). That's about a 3 point swing in favor on average, which would be good to tie or win 4 games, if all things were the same.

I really have no idea why NFL.com will not separate them... doesn't seem like it'd be terribly difficult for a multi million dollar website.

[Tru11]

I've never criticized what he does with the front seven. I have always praised his ability to coordinate the front seven, when I say cautious I don't mean an all coverage scheme, I mean his secondary schemes are predictable, and we have seen it play out over and over when any decent OC figures out what we do without adjustment. The 4th down play in the super bowl, if I'm not mistaken was the same exact play call that burress got an easy game winning td in the 07 super bowl, and pees calls a play that has been seen and beaten in the same exact situation... And here's the crazy part, the niners tried the same tactic of a corner lob to the big wr in single coverage, with a qb who had any throwing mechanics whatsoever, we could have been in big trouble. My point is, pees always has, and always will, be very predictable with his scheme for the secondary. Not my fault you took it at face value and didn't bother to understand the context.

 

wrong though.

 

burres was a different down and distance and he ran a different route against off coverage.

he ran a double move and had a whole lot more room to work with.

they where actually also in a 4 wide set.

looked like the pats ran cover 0

 

niners where in a 3 WR set and crabtree ran a fade route against press coverage

looked like we ran cover 1  here.

 

also buress is 6`5 while crabtree is 6`2.

 

burrerss went against hobbs who is 5`9

crabtree went against jimmy who is also 6`2.

 

also for the record: all DCs have a limited amount of plays.

You wont find 1 DC who hasent use the same play twice of the span of several years lol

 

every single coach in the NFL has tendencies and so do players.

 

its not something limited to Pees only....

Edited January 8, 2016 by Tru11

[BmoreBird22]

we actually had 5 turnovers go for points against us.

1 broncos

1 dolphins

1 browns and 2 chiefs.

that does not consider turnovers that had the opponent in scoring position already or just weird calls by the HC like the Punt that turned it over on down in our own redzone or turning it over on downs on our side of the field.

i mean we could have a turnover , force a 3 and out and the opponent would still have a chip shot FG lel.

our 28 turnovers where tied for 8th worst in the league...

Who scored in the Dolphins game? For some reason I thought they only got offensive touchdowns...

28? That's pretty impressive when you consider the Ravens had to field Clausen, Schaub, and Mallett for six full games.

In all seriousness, that's horrendous to think they were turning it over almost 2 times per game

[Tru11]

Who scored in the Dolphins game? For some reason I thought they only got offensive touchdowns...

28? That's pretty impressive when you consider the Ravens had to field Clausen, Schaub, and Mallett for six full games.

In all seriousness, that's horrendous to think they were turning it over almost 2 times per game

 

shelby had a tipped pass he returned for a TD.

 

also their first TD also came on the first play after a TO lol.

 

take both turnovers away and well thats 15 points gone and we shut them out.

 

both happened in like a 3 minute span orso....

Edited January 8, 2016 by Tru11

[ravensdfan]

My point is that bad seasons happen. They just do.

I mean. It's a perfect storm.

Before the season: You lose Ngata, McPhee, Torrey.

Jimmy was injured with a horrid injury

CJ had offseason surgery

Jernigan hurt in the preseason

Eugene goes down one of the first snaps of the year.

First, your best defensive player goes down. It's hard to find a replacement for him. This makes everyone's life harder. The secondary gets no favors. Pass rush decreased.

Trade for Will Davis. Gets hurt quickly afterwards after looking good.

Crocket gets a lingering injury

SSR gets his first injury

They put Camp on IR because the Perriman situation

Then SSR goes down for real

Then we finally put Perriman on IR

Forsett goes down

Flacco goes down

Eugene goes down for real

So on and so forth. It's really just a perfect storm. And might I remind everyone, even without Suggs(even vs good teams). We were one score away until Flacco went down.

I dare you to tell me this team isn't fixable. The high draft pick is a blessing in disguise. You add more talent on the defense, we'll win a lot more games and not blow as many leads. Especially with an easier schedule

We play our own division and the AFCE - not an easy schedule IMO.

 

Not saying the team isn't fixable just that the 4th quarter fails are a Pees issue. Everyone said the same thing the last 2 years. More talent, they'll blow less leads. It isn't Pees it's the players. So basically you are claiming Ozzie is garbage suddenly if you want to claim a lack of talented depth and not an issue with Pees defensive philosophy itself. Or Decosta is, as they seemed to suggest he was drafting now. After all, we're not talking one draft here .

 

The players aren't stars and no one expected greatness from Pees. Just not garbage. Fact is the defense has not lived up to its potential in any season since Pees took over. That is just plain fact. Blame whoever you like, but it seems a pretty big coincidence to me that Pees has never in four years fielded a defense that lived up to its potential.

 

The offensive weapons were pure garbage this season. Please. Those TEs either did not play, got injured off and on or were injured from the start and our receiving corps was by far the worst in the league. We did not in any fashion have more on offense. We have potential on offense going into next season, but that came about late late late in the season once different pieces took the field due to injuries. Suggesting the offense had more in a year they lost all but 2 of their starters is reaching.

 

Even in 2013, the best year out of the Pees' defense, they still had 4th collapses. That is his signature mark and follows him everywhere. It is what it is. There is no escaping it. Especially in big games. Same thing happened in NE as well.

[BmoreBird22]

I've never criticized what he does with the front seven. I have always praised his ability to coordinate the front seven, when I say cautious I don't mean an all coverage scheme, I mean his secondary schemes are predictable, and we have seen it play out over and over when any decent OC figures out what we do without adjustment. The 4th down play in the super bowl, if I'm not mistaken was the same exact play call that burress got an easy game winning td in the 07 super bowl, and pees calls a play that has been seen and beaten in the same exact situation... And here's the crazy part, the niners tried the same tactic of a corner lob to the big wr in single coverage, with a qb who had any throwing mechanics whatsoever, we could have been in big trouble. My point is, pees always has, and always will, be very predictable with his scheme for the secondary. Not my fault you took it at face value and didn't bother to understand the context. We call the guy predictable, show a late 4th quarter red zone play call that lost them a super bowl, then evidence of him calling the same play in the same exact situation years later, we see the opposing offense call the same play to counter it, and you still try to argue that he isn't predictable? Anyways... Look at every playoff loss pees was the DC in, 45th quarter meltdowns, 2 fraanchises since 07, and I believe 5 different losses, 2 of them were absolutely absurd 4th quarter melt downs and one was a melt down as well that we managed to escape, another was 2 meltdowns in one game although it could be blamed on talent, so that leaves 4 out of 5 playoff losses are end of the game meltdowns and you still put all of the blame on the talent and deny evidence of his predictability? Guess there's no more discussion to be had then..

For starters, there's very little context, but in your posts in this thread you said (basically)...

 

1. Pees is going to waste away Joe Flacco's prime because he's awful

2. He knows how to design blitzes, but he's too conservative in big settings and resorts to plays that ultimately fail.

 

Both of those statements are fairly false because 1. He's coached a Super Bowl winning defense and 2. He called probably the most ballsy blitz possible in the biggest game of the year. Also, for the sake of "context", we're in a Dean Pees' thread where most of it is bashing, so...

 

And yes, it was the exact same play, except this time, it was executed correctly. Go back and watch the play, but the Giants perfectly picked up the blitz, which wouldn't have been a huge deal, except that Ellis Hobbs literally stood flat footed and let Burress run by him. All he had to do was literally prevent a touchdown and keep everything in front of the end zone, but he stood flat footed and completely whiffed as Burress easily coasted by him. It wasn't a lob pass, it was a perfectly floated pass to a wide open receiver. And by the way, no, the play calls were fairly different.

 

And I never said anything about predictability, but since you seem to have this obsession with the word, please, define what you mean by "predictable schemes". 

Also, which games are you calling fourth quarter meltdowns in the playoffs.? The Colts game, sure. I'll say that's fair. I'm assuming you mean the 2007 Super Bowl, but again, Hobbs literally stood flat footed and Asante Samuel let a sure interception hit him right in the chest and dropped it the play before the helmet catch, so I have no idea how you'd blame that on Pees. And I'm also sure you're referring to the Ravens Super Bowl in which the second half saw Haloti Ngata leave (and saw him subsequently be replaced by Terrance Cody and Ma'ake Kemeouatu). And in case you don't remember, the offense did this in the second half- Punt (four plays; led to touchdown), Punt (three and out; led to touchdown), fumble (led to field goal), field goal, field goal, safety. That's a really solid effort from the offense which really aided the defense, huh? I'm sure that's entirely on Dean Pees.

Edited January 8, 2016 by BmoreBird22

[BmoreBird22]

shelby had a tipped pass he returned for a TD.

 

also their first TD also came on the first play after a TO lol.

 

take both turnovers away and well thats 15 points gone and we shut them out.

 

both happened in like a 3 minute span orso....

If you just look at TO differential and PPG allowed, there's generally a really good correlation. A few odd teams, like the Giants, but they mostly match up well.

[LosT_in_TranSlatioN]

I might be stretching on offense. But you're not giving them enough credit. If one TE went down. Another of the three produced. And Aiken is a hell of a lot better than you give him credit for. I wouldn't go as far as BmoreBird22. But Sure. Despite us having a good statistical offense before we went down. Sure. They sucked. Totally.

You seem to misunderstand something. Even in 2013, when our WR corps was significantly worse than it was this year. That wasn't the reason we missed the playoffs. This offense had a good line. Always seemed to have a good TEs. WRs that actually stepped up, a good stable of running backs. The offense wasn't the problem this year. They could have been better sure. But their not the issue. Sure. WR corps was one of the worst in the NFL. But we had some servicable guys. And again, we'd have more talent there if it wasn't for injuries.

As I have said previously.. I think the defense has a better core but worse depth. The offense is the opposite problem. We have good depth but a bad core. Again. We could add two key members to the core based off of development.

And "they have the worst WR corps in the league by far".

Starting wise sure. But we have good depth all over the offense.

Urschel

Jensen

Aiken(when we inevitably pick up another WR will become a depth piece)

Givens(I think he's a cheap repickup) or

Camp

Allen

West

Taliefero

Boyle

Hell of a lot better than the depth on defense. Offense needs another WR and maybe a new oline men and then we get to holy crap levels of scary. Especially if we retain KO.

You're reaching more so than me. Pees has fielded a few pretty good defenses with good front sevens. 2013 and 2014. There were fourth quarter collapses? Sure. But did the offense still do their job(especially 2013)? Nope. They do their job. We're a playoff team that year.. Which would pretty much give a Dean Pees defense three consecutive playoff appearances. This year, we lose our best defensive player along with Ngata, McPheee. And until Joe goes down we still only lose some one score games(some to some really good teams. Denver in their house, Cincy, Arizona). Even with that. We barely lose. Hmmm.

2014 we go in vs a damn good patriots team lead by a hall of fame QB and the unstoppable TE who's a mismatch nightmare. And even with a backup secondary basically WE ONLY LOST BY FOUR POINTS, and even then. The offense didn't do it job. Joe threw a pass(the freaking short pass was killing them. He got greedy. But Torrey should have fought for it). But we lost to a very good team. So I'm not too mad here. We lost as a TEAM that game.

Again. That offense had tons of firepower. We lost by four. Against a truly bad defense they would have scored more.

And to put it into perspective. Even though that Seattle defense last year wasn't as good as 2013. They still had an elite defense and the Pats still put 28 on them. They scored only one more TD vs us and we had a backup secondary.

And the fan base with extremes again. I am not claiming Ozzie is garbage. You know... Not everything in the NFL is solved by immediantly firing people. No. He's not. He's just not a god. He's still a very good Gm who's made a few mistakes. He'd be picked up in seconds if fired. This is why I'm happy the fans don't run things and he does. But he's made some mistakes on defense. He's had a few bad picks here and there at the back end of the first round. It happens.

The point here is. Even after losing our best player. Every game was close. Even those vs good teams, until Joe went down. Lack of depth, lack of experience, you name it. You can't put that all on Pees. You have a harboring hatred for him because he's passive. I don't like him either for the same reason but he's not the issue here. The difference between 2014's defense and 2015's is we had more depth. We could have afforded to lose a guy like Ngata cause we had Jernigan in the wings. We had depth on the defense and that unit was a pretty good one. They played some upper ranked offenses and did well.

Edited January 8, 2016 by LosT_in_TranSlatioN

[Inqui]

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-offensive-points-per-game

 

It's not perfect because I'm not sure why they have to estimate it, but fwiw this site has us conceding 23.1ppg to other sides' offences, which has us ranked 21st.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Inqui

[Adreme]

What did the offense have? Flacco, an aging SSS, and Forsett who was not the Forsett of a year ago. Yet, that unit was Top 7 under a brand spanking new OC trying to run someone else's system before Flacco went down. It just isn't an excuse anymore. Not after four years.

 

Pees is what he is. Vanilla, conservative running a bend but don't break system that breaks statistically too often. If he's staying, we fail unless we address offense and are able to put up 30 or better most games. Pees will pull that rare great game, like the 2nd Steelers' game this year, where the offense might not need 30, but like I said last year - only a high octane offense saves us from Pees' brand of defense. And as we saw this year in Oakland, even THAT won't guarantee us a win.

 

It also had an elite offensive line and Flacco to SSS was basically half the offense until he went down (and was probably why he went down).  If you have an elite offensive line though you can make a lot of things possible.

[pitchblack_20]

smh

[JEEPercreepermd]

In all honesty, the whole notion that Pees needs to be fired is foolish.

If you can point the finger at anybody, point it at Ozzie and Decosta for missing on the high picks that they have used on defense and for missing on free agents that they brought in to shore up the secondary aka Derrian Stewart, Kendrick Lewis, Kyle Arrington ect..

You guys want to torch the guy for being too vanilla..what else can he do with what he had? Go back and re watch the games, he used zone blitzes, zero coverage blitzes, and every type of coverage ..you'll see it all, the players on the field , mainly in the secondary did not perform up to expectation in the first half of the season..and pees held them accountable for it.

He criticized the lack of effort, he called jimmy out for playing too tentative, got rid of some guys like Melvin ect.. Who sucked and moved Webb to the slot, then to FS because he was struggling to cover guys.

Scheme is not the problem. Most of you have no idea how to accept failure, which is sad. The team needs to get better, in order to do so they need better, healthier players on the field.

Switching defensive coordinatiors or switching to the 4-3 or whatever half brained knee jerk solutions you geniuses have conjured up as a reaction to having a losing season is not even remotely what the team needs.

I'd like to know just one situation where Dean Pees' play call cost us a game this season..just one, humor me, plesse

[jazz1988]

In all honesty, the whole notion that Pees needs to be fired is foolish.

If you can point the finger at anybody, point it at Ozzie and Decosta for missing on the high picks that they have used on defense and for missing on free agents that they brought in to shore up the secondary aka Derrian Stewart, Kendrick Lewis, Kyle Arrington ect..

You guys want to torch the guy for being too vanilla..what else can he do with what he had? Go back and re watch the games, he used zone blitzes, zero coverage blitzes, and every type of coverage ..you'll see it all, the players on the field , mainly in the secondary did not perform up to expectation in the first half of the season..and pees held them accountable for it.

He criticized the lack of effort, he called jimmy out for playing too tentative, got rid of some guys like Melvin ect.. Who sucked and moved Webb to the slot, then to FS because he was struggling to cover guys.

Scheme is not the problem. Most of you have no idea how to accept failure, which is sad. The team needs to get better, in order to do so they need better, healthier players on the field.

Switching defensive coordinatiors or switching to the 4-3 or whatever half brained knee jerk solutions you geniuses have conjured up as a reaction to having a losing season is not even remotely what the team needs.

I'd like to know just one situation where Dean Pees' play call cost us a game this season..just one, humor me, plesse

 I like going russellstreetreport.com to read what ever they have available Ravens related especially if it's from Filmstudy aka Ken Mckusick. He had this to say about The Ravens defense/Pees and also here is the link just in case you or others want to read further because I thought it was a good read link

Pees was quoted as blaming some of the early season defensive problems on execution. There is no question the secondary was limited in terms of talent and hampered by injury. However, they also lacked flexibility, because they had just 1 set of defensive personnel for passing situations. Prior to Week 12, they did not use a single dime alignment, which meant every catch-up passing play was run against the nickel. The base 4-2-5 was used exclusively for 3 games, before Pees started to mix in the 3-ILB package with Orr in Week 4.  That provided more pass rush flexibility, but did very little to improve coverage. When you only have 1 defense, opposing offensive coordinators can more easily game plan to beat it, which was done effectively by Oakland, Cincinnati, and Cleveland (Weeks 2, 3, and 5). The Broncos, conversely, did an outstanding job of adjusting their game plan to beat the Ravens by handing the game to their defense.

Edited January 8, 2016 by jazz1988

[jazz1988]

 I like going russellstreetreport.com to read what ever they have available Ravens related especially if it's from Filmstudy aka Ken Mckusick. He had this to say about The Ravens defense/Pees and also here is the link just in case you or others want to read further because I thought it was a good read link

Overall from all that in which Filmstudy said it seems the scheme was the problem early on in the season and opposing offenses didn't have a problem figure it out and exploiting it.Losing Suggs did in indeed hurt alot more than some fans thought.

Edited January 8, 2016 by jazz1988

[usmccharles]

Im not a Pees hater nor a lover, but i find it funny with all the hate talk on him when we finished 8th in total defense this year.  thats with a terrible offense for almost the second half of the season, without our best pass rusher and other injuries.  Im excited for when Jimmy/Suggs comes back healthy

[atomicfront]

Why are people so quick to dismiss the loss of Suggs as if it's small? Today, Biscotti called Suggs the most important player on the defense. Does that not mean anything to anyone?

 

We also lost Ngata.   Two guys who got double teamed.  You saw how it effected Elvis and you saw how it effected our middle linebackers.  People act like the players have nothing to do with the result on the field. 

[ravensdfan]

I might be stretching on offense. But you're not giving them enough credit. If one TE went down. Another of the three produced. And Aiken is a hell of a lot better than you give him credit for. I wouldn't go as far as BmoreBird22. But Sure. Despite us having a good statistical offense before we went down. Sure. They sucked. Totally.

You seem to misunderstand something. Even in 2013, when our WR corps was significantly worse than it was this year. That wasn't the reason we missed the playoffs. This offense had a good line. Always seemed to have a good TEs. WRs that actually stepped up, a good stable of running backs. The offense wasn't the problem this year. They could have been better sure. But their not the issue. Sure. WR corps was one of the worst in the NFL. But we had some servicable guys. And again, we'd have more talent there if it wasn't for injuries.

As I have said previously.. I think the defense has a better core but worse depth. The offense is the opposite problem. We have good depth but a bad core. Again. We could add two key members to the core based off of development.

And "they have the worst WR corps in the league by far".

Starting wise sure. But we have good depth all over the offense.

Urschel

Jensen

Aiken(when we inevitably pick up another WR will become a depth piece)

Givens(I think he's a cheap repickup) or

Camp

Allen

West

Taliefero

Boyle

Hell of a lot better than the depth on defense. Offense needs another WR and maybe a new oline men and then we get to holy crap levels of scary. Especially if we retain KO.

You're reaching more so than me. Pees has fielded a few pretty good defenses with good front sevens. 2013 and 2014. There were fourth quarter collapses? Sure. But did the offense still do their job(especially 2013)? Nope. They do their job. We're a playoff team that year.. Which would pretty much give a Dean Pees defense three consecutive playoff appearances. This year, we lose our best defensive player along with Ngata, McPheee. And until Joe goes down we still only lose some one score games(some to some really good teams. Denver in their house, Cincy, Arizona). Even with that. We barely lose. Hmmm.

2014 we go in vs a damn good patriots team lead by a hall of fame QB and the unstoppable TE who's a mismatch nightmare. And even with a backup secondary basically WE ONLY LOST BY FOUR POINTS, and even then. The offense didn't do it job. Joe threw a pass(the freaking short pass was killing them. He got greedy. But Torrey should have fought for it). But we lost to a very good team. So I'm not too mad here. We lost as a TEAM that game.

Again. That offense had tons of firepower. We lost by four. Against a truly bad defense they would have scored more.

And to put it into perspective. Even though that Seattle defense last year wasn't as good as 2013. They still had an elite defense and the Pats still put 28 on them. They scored only one more TD vs us and we had a backup secondary.

And the fan base with extremes again. I am not claiming Ozzie is garbage. You know... Not everything in the NFL is solved by immediantly firing people. No. He's not. He's just not a god. He's still a very good Gm who's made a few mistakes. He'd be picked up in seconds if fired. This is why I'm happy the fans don't run things and he does. But he's made some mistakes on defense. He's had a few bad picks here and there at the back end of the first round. It happens.

The point here is. Even after losing our best player. Every game was close. Even those vs good teams, until Joe went down. Lack of depth, lack of experience, you name it. You can't put that all on Pees. You have a harboring hatred for him because he's passive. I don't like him either for the same reason but he's not the issue here. The difference between 2014's defense and 2015's is we had more depth. We could have afforded to lose a guy like Ngata cause we had Jernigan in the wings. We had depth on the defense and that unit was a pretty good one. They played some upper ranked offenses and did well.

Cam Cameron led offense had how many playoff trips? Not really a measure of the coordinator's ability when his unit is not the reason we make it there nor does it negate ongoing issues that exist.

 

While that last play can be questioned in that playoff game, blaming the offense at all in a game where we gave up not one, but two 14 pt leads is beyond reaching. Torrey failed and it is what it is, but he is also no longer here.

 

I like our TE group. I am still excited to see Perriman hit the field, though I know many have soured on him because of the injury. The others have flashed potential but I'm not crowning them just yet. Aiken is a solid #3 and he was our starter. Enough said about the talent level of our receiving corps right there really.

 

Nice you have faith in Pees despite the fact that his defenses have the same issues year after year. No matter what players are on the field. Fact remains that the man who diligently defended his overall scheme changed things the 2nd half of the season. Don't know if that was a Pees led change or a Harbs led change, but once the heat is off, based on his attitude and the way he defended it, I see Pees going back to his same old same old.

 

Don't misunderstand me either, I have no issue being wrong about the man. I don't want our team to fail, ever, but after four seasons of the same thing, I don't have faith in Pees ever changing. Especially when at the end of the year, the arguments why we'll be better next season are always the same and never pan out.

[callahan09]

Here's a metric I just sort of made up on the spot...

 

Since there are a lot of facets to defensive points than just how many actual points were given up, I wanted to take a look at some of those other factors.  Basically, we've got defenses that score points themselves on fumble/interception return TDs, so if a defense gives up 7 points, but scores an INT return TD, it's a wash, the net scoring impact from the defense in that game is essentially the same as allowing 0 points, looking at this from a simplistic perspective.   And likewise when opponents score on special teams returns or defensively themselves, it shouldn't count against the defense for "allowing" points that they really didn't allow because they weren't even on the field.  As far as FGs, I think we should only count them against the defense when the drive the FG was kicked after had begun on the opponent's own side of the field.  That way the defense is sure to have allowed the opponent to drive a decent amount of territory to get into FG range.  I picked mid-field as a simple, relatively logical (to my mind at least) neutral point to use so if the opponent started on their own side of the field and crossed midfield, got into FG range, and kicked it, we can hold the defense accountable for allowing that, but if they started on the other side of the 50 yard line, the defense isn't quite as accountable for allowing them to drive potentially not even as far as to earn a first down before being in FG range in some stadiums for some kickers.

 

Anyway, onto the numbers then (it's simpler than I probably made it sound with the above paragraph, haha):

 

First of all, for TDs, I'm using an average number of points scored equal to the actual average number of points that were earned on TDs across the NFL this season: There were 1318 TDs, with 45 successful 2PT Conversions + 1318 PAT Kicks Made = 9144 Points off TDs = 6.9377845220030349013657056145675 Points Scored Per TD.

 

OK.  So, in 2015 all NFL defenses combined to allow 667 FG Drives 365 Rush TD + 842 Pass TD, but also shrank point differentials with 33 Fumble Return TD, 53 INT Return TD, and 16 Safeties.  That comes out to about 9746 Points allowed by defenses in the NFL.

 

Therefore an average NFL defense in 2015 allowed about 305 points by this metric.

 

The Ravens defense had the following allowed: 24 FG Drives + 10 Rush TD + 30 Pass TD - 1 Fumble Return TD - 4 INT Return TD - 0 Safeties = 315 Points Allowed Defensively.

 

So we net allowed about 10 points more defensively than an NFL average defense in 2015.  That's a below average defense.

 

I did this math manually using numbers from PFREF.com.  I'd have to export the stats to a CSV and write a script to parse and calculate them if I wanted to generate an actual rankings list of all 32 teams, which I don't have time to do now, but hopefully I'll get around to that if you all want to see it.

[ravensdfan]

Here's a metric I just sort of made up on the spot...

 

Since there are a lot of facets to defensive points than just how many actual points were given up, I wanted to take a look at some of those other factors.  Basically, we've got defenses that score points themselves on fumble/interception return TDs, so if a defense gives up 7 points, but scores an INT return TD, it's a wash, the net scoring impact from the defense in that game is essentially the same as allowing 0 points, looking at this from a simplistic perspective.   And likewise when opponents score on special teams returns or defensively themselves, it shouldn't count against the defense for "allowing" points that they really didn't allow because they weren't even on the field.  As far as FGs, I think we should only count them against the defense when the drive the FG was kicked after had begun on the opponent's own side of the field.  That way the defense is sure to have allowed the opponent to drive a decent amount of territory to get into FG range.  I picked mid-field as a simple, relatively logical (to my mind at least) neutral point to use so if the opponent started on their own side of the field and crossed midfield, got into FG range, and kicked it, we can hold the defense accountable for allowing that, but if they started on the other side of the 50 yard line, the defense isn't quite as accountable for allowing them to drive potentially not even as far as to earn a first down before being in FG range in some stadiums for some kickers.

 

Anyway, onto the numbers then (it's simpler than I probably made it sound with the above paragraph, haha):

 

First of all, for TDs, I'm using an average number of points scored equal to the actual average number of points that were earned on TDs across the NFL this season: There were 1318 TDs, with 45 successful 2PT Conversions + 1318 PAT Kicks Made = 9144 Points off TDs = 6.9377845220030349013657056145675 Points Scored Per TD.

 

OK.  So, in 2015 all NFL defenses combined to allow 667 FG Drives 365 Rush TD + 842 Pass TD, but also shrank point differentials with 33 Fumble Return TD, 53 INT Return TD, and 16 Safeties.  That comes out to about 9746 Points allowed by defenses in the NFL.

 

Therefore an average NFL defense in 2015 allowed about 305 points by this metric.

 

The Ravens defense had the following allowed: 24 FG Drives + 10 Rush TD + 30 Pass TD - 1 Fumble Return TD - 4 INT Return TD - 0 Safeties = 315 Points Allowed Defensively.

 

So we net allowed about 10 points more defensively than an NFL average defense in 2015.  That's a below average defense.

 

I did this math manually using numbers from PFREF.com.  I'd have to export the stats to a CSV and write a script to parse and calculate them if I wanted to generate an actual rankings list of all 32 teams, which I don't have time to do now, but hopefully I'll get around to that if you all want to see it.

All that matters is the 2nd half! When you know, we looked good! Only other stat that matters this year, is yards man, yards! Because you know, we managed Top 10 in that. Keep up. Points scored being an important metric only counts in 2013.

 

Anyone who watched this defense who cannot understand we were below average, well, don't know what to say as it was pretty obvious if you watched any other teams play and saw the comparison.

[GrimCoconut]

In terms of the defense, how many TD are a direct result of penalties on the players? How many TD & FG are a result of the players using bad technique or discipline that leads them to commit a penalty? I like your stats, Callahan, but I've noticed stats can be manipulated to satisfy someone's bias.

I'm not calling you out here. Instead, I'm asking for what I believe will be the most accurate metric to judge the defense. I can't justifiably negatively judge Pees for the players' poor discipline, although I think he is ultimately responsible for his players' poor discipline, if that makes sense.

I'm not at all a Pees fan. I want to make that clear.

Edited January 8, 2016 by GrimCoconut

[redrum52]

In terms of the defense, how many TD are a direct result of penalties on the players? How many TD & FG are a result of the players using bad technique or discipline that leads them to commit a penalty? I like your stats, Callahan, but I've noticed stats can be manipulated to satisfy someone's bias.

I'm not calling you out here. Instead, I'm asking for what I believe will be the most accurate metric to judge the defense. I can't justifiably negatively judge Pees for the players' poor discipline, although I think he is ultimately responsible for his players' poor discipline, if that makes sense.

I'm not at all a Pees fan. I want to make that clear.

I'm pretty sure there at least 6. I remember Pees saying had it not been for 6 or 7 plays they'd be a top 10 D I think in points and yards.

[allblackraven]

I'm not calling you out here. Instead, I'm asking for what I believe will be the most accurate metric to judge the defense.

There's a good one, albeight not very scientific - number of times we all cringed this season on opposition's 3rd downs.

[terrynjulia03]

the Ravens had about twice as many turnovers against them as is normal (5 vs 2.5 per team). That's about a 3 point swing in favor on average, which would be good to tie or win 4 games, if all things were the same.

I really have no idea why NFL.com will not separate them... doesn't seem like it'd be terribly difficult for a multi million dollar website.

Hence why noone uses it for real stats. Check pff or pfr. Pro football focus and pro football reference. If you want good broke down stats for anything and everything. Nfl.com is a joke

[terrynjulia03]

I just would like to make one single point. Darian Stewart. The scape goat and supposed bum from last year, kinda like Lewis this year, is the startimg FS on the #1 D in the NFl. Hes also graded per pff as in the top 5 of FS in the league this year. Last yearhe was a bum, this year top 5. Well jeez jim what do we have here?

[Inqui]

There's a good one, albeight not very scientific - number of times we all cringed this season on opposition's 3rd downs.

Or how full my swear jar gets during any given season.

[52520Andrew]

It would be like the Seahawks losing Thomas, the Texans losing Watt,

Suggs is not that level player anymore. He is a great player but don't compare the guy the past couple years to Watt.

[Inqui]

I just would like to make one single point. Darian Stewart. The scape goat and supposed bum from last year, kinda like Lewis this year, is the startimg FS on the #1 D in the NFl. Hes also graded per pff as in the top 5 of FS in the league this year. Last yearhe was a bum, this year top 5. Well jeez jim what do we have here?

PFF grades are stacked for players that have great teammates. It's far easier for him to make plays or even just not mess up when two WRs are being blanked half the time, he has a great pass rush in front of him and their run defence makes other teams look like the 2013 Ravens (conceding 3.3ypa while we managed 3.1ypa that year).

[jimmypowder]

Is pees gone yet?

[jazz1988]

Suggs is not that level player anymore. He is a great player but don't compare the guy the past couple years to Watt.

 

Just like Watt Suggs is a every down player which means he's doesn't have to come off the field unless for a breathier. He's not at Watt level that's for sure but Suggs can do it all from setting the edge to stop the run,   he can cover, really intelligent,can get after the passer and overall a playmaker. When The Ravens lost Suggs it wasn't just losing a great player but actually losing their only every down outside linebacker  which really hurt The Ravens bad.