[News] Late For Work 10/1: The Picks Are In: Ravens vs. Steelers

[OzzieBisciotti]

We would've had the money for Torrey Smith if we didn't keep SSS. Why wouldn't Ozzie want to keep a young, developing receiver and spend millions of dollars for a 36 year old receiver in SSS? We knew Steve Smith was going to retire at some point- he can't play much longer. I'm sure Ozzie realizes his huge mistake now, but it wouldn't been good to keep Torrey- Ozzie has to get this "rent a receiver" mentality out of his head.

In regards to Torrey Smith's current performance with the 49ers, let's all please remember that he has Kapernick throwing to him (another RG3) and that the 49ers lost a ton of talent this year and aren't the same team (as we are now) a year or two ago.

At least when Torrey was around, he would get huge gains off of PI calls- he lead the league last year for most PI yards gained- so let's not say his production was down last year- and he opened up everything for the other receivers- that's why Flacco posted career numbers last year with the passing game. Does this now make sense for everybody in realizing how valuable Torrey was?

Ozzie, at the very least, we should have at least kept Jacoby, then we wouldn't have to even consider putting our only legitimate receiver, SSS, as our punt returner.

[roamingcharges]

I have thought long and hard about this but as much as I've been an Ozzie defender for years I have to admit that this team's problems start in the GM's office and then trickle down from there. Yes Dean Pees can't coach Defense and John Harbaugh is rigid when he should be flexible and flexible when he should be rigid... I get all of that but let's examine some of the recent front office decisions. Please:

 

BAD CONTRACTS

Eugene Monroe, Lardarius Webb, Dennis Pitta, (Jury still out on Jimmy Smith and Justin Forsett)

 

WASTED DRAFT PICKS

Sergio Kindle, Jah Reid, Terrence Cody, Tandon Doss, Ed Dickson...

 

GOOD PICKS THAT WALKED

Torrey Smith, Paul Kruger, (I guess Ray Rice has to fit in somewhere although that is a whole nother kettle of fish)

 

POTENTIAL SIGNINGS THAT MADE SENSE BUT WEREN'T MADE
A painfully long list (I can remember yelling at my computer urging the team to sign Brent Grimes two years ago-- they didn't even show mild interest!). I'd like to know if we had the opportunity to get Jared Allen a couple of days ago.

 

USELESS SIGNINGS

Marcus Spears, Michael Huff, TJ Houshmandzadeh (to a lesser extent I'll concede)... even Rolando McClain

 

BRESHAD PERRIMAN

Oh my head hurts now, I can't do this anymore... but you get the picture by now.

Edited October 1, 2015 by roamingcharges

[NorthDakotaRaven]

I have thought long and hard about this but as much as I've been an Ozzie defender for years I have to admit that this team's problems start in the GM's office and then trickle down from there. Yes Dean Pees can't coach Defense and John Harbaugh is rigid when he should be flexible and flexible when he should be rigid... I get all of that but let's examine some of the recent front office decisions. Please:

 

BAD CONTRACTS

Eugene Monroe, Lardarius Webb, Dennis Pitta, (Jury still out on Jimmy Smith and Justin Forsett)

 

WASTED DRAFT PICKS

Sergio Kindle, Jah Reid, Terrence Cody, Tandon Doss, Ed Dickson...

 

GOOD PICKS THAT WALKED

Torrey Smith, Paul Kruger, (I guess Ray Rice has to fit in somewhere although that is a whole nother kettle of fish)

 

POTENTIAL SIGNINGS THAT MADE SENSE BUT WEREN'T MADE

A painfully long list (I can remember yelling at my computer urging the team to sign Brent Grimes two years ago-- they didn't even show mild interest!). I'd like to know if we had the opportunity to get Jared Allen a couple of days ago.

 

USELESS SIGNINGS

Marcus Spears, Michael Huff, TJ Houshmandzadeh (to a lesser extent I'll concede)... even Rolando McClain

 

BRESHAD PERRIMAN

Oh my head hurts now, I can't do this anymore... but you get the picture by now.

This man is right on, just didn't have the patience to break it down myself. Great points man, I couldn't agree with you more. Also, I am glad Flacco is not on this list, as he is not the problem.

[jpboechat]

We would've had the money for Torrey Smith if we didn't keep SSS. Why wouldn't Ozzie want to keep a young, developing receiver and spend millions of dollars for a 36 year old receiver in SSS? We knew Steve Smith was going to retire at some point- he can't play much longer. I'm sure Ozzie realizes his huge mistake now, but it wouldn't been good to keep Torrey- Ozzie has to get this "rent a receiver" mentality out of his head. In regards to Torrey Smith's current performance with the 49ers, let's all please remember that he has Kapernick throwing to him (another RG3) and that the 49ers lost a ton of talent this year and aren't the same team (as we are now) a year or two ago. At least when Torrey was around, he would get huge gains off of PI calls- he lead the league last year for most PI yards gained- so let's not say his production was down last year- and he opened up everything for the other receivers- that's why Flacco posted career numbers last year with the passing game. Does this now make sense for everybody in realizing how valuable Torrey was? Ozzie, at the very least, we should have at least kept Jacoby, then we wouldn't have to even consider putting our only legitimate receiver, SSS, as our punt returner.

 

I think it's more about the amount of dead money that limits our cap, mainly because of Pitta and Rice contracts... Oh, and the amount of money we commit to Monroe and Webb. We couldn't predict Pitta's injury and Rice's troubles, but it still bothers everyone that our cap is shortened because of guys that aren't even playing. Monroe and Webb were considered very good when their contract was signed, but we've been very unlucky with the injuries. 

I agree with you that Torrey is surely being missed, but I don't think the SSS signing was bad... if we could commit a bit more $$ to wide receivers we'd still have him

[Hardhitters]

I understand why our players always say I wish berger was playing but when ur 0-3 thank the guy that hit his leg that he isn't playing.

[rmcjacket23]

I have thought long and hard about this but as much as I've been an Ozzie defender for years I have to admit that this team's problems start in the GM's office and then trickle down from there. Yes Dean Pees can't coach Defense and John Harbaugh is rigid when he should be flexible and flexible when he should be rigid... I get all of that but let's examine some of the recent front office decisions. Please:

 

BAD CONTRACTS

Eugene Monroe, Lardarius Webb, Dennis Pitta, (Jury still out on Jimmy Smith and Justin Forsett)

 

WASTED DRAFT PICKS

Sergio Kindle, Jah Reid, Terrence Cody, Tandon Doss, Ed Dickson...

 

GOOD PICKS THAT WALKED

Torrey Smith, Paul Kruger, (I guess Ray Rice has to fit in somewhere although that is a whole nother kettle of fish)

 

POTENTIAL SIGNINGS THAT MADE SENSE BUT WEREN'T MADE

A painfully long list (I can remember yelling at my computer urging the team to sign Brent Grimes two years ago-- they didn't even show mild interest!). I'd like to know if we had the opportunity to get Jared Allen a couple of days ago.

 

USELESS SIGNINGS

Marcus Spears, Michael Huff, TJ Houshmandzadeh (to a lesser extent I'll concede)... even Rolando McClain

 

BRESHAD PERRIMAN

Oh my head hurts now, I can't do this anymore... but you get the picture by now.

Isn't this all just a bunch of hind sight second-guessing though? I mean the list of people thinking the Monroe/Pitta/Webb contracts were terrible when they were given was very, very, very, very, very short. So its just sort of lazy convenience to come out now and say "o well those were bad contracts".

 

As far as draft picks, he hasn't been as good for sure, but then again a lot of the guys you listed are mid-round picks, which has always basically been a coin flip situation, even a decade or more ago when he was considered so great. Expecting any GM to hit on 3rd or 4th rounders every year is sort of a ridiculous expectation from the fans. Keep in mind, for every Jah Reid, there's a Rick Wagner. For every Ed Dickson, there's a Brandon Williams.

 

We miss out on dozens of potential signings every year... as do other teams. Most of them we probably never had the money to get, and of course, most fans wait until the exact moment they start playing well elsewhere to start using them as an example of players we should have signed. Funny thing is... I never hear a peep of apologies from people who advocate we sign somebody and then that player sucks elsewhere.

 

If we had the opportunity to get Jared Allen, we wouldn't have and shouldn't have. He's a 4-3 DE who has struggled as a 3-4 OLB, he's aging, and its not exactly the kind of trade you make for an 0-3 team. 

[RavensFootballFan]

I don't take the Steelers lightly, even without Big Ben. There are 22 starters and they will have 20 starters playing (Not including Pouncey as he is on IR). They are at home, another advantage. Do I think the Ravens have a chance at winning? Yes, without a doubt but as long as Ravens play the game at a high level to have a chance which I think Ravens will be ready to do so. A -2.5 favorite is nothing, pretty much means the game can go either way. I will watch the game, cheering and supporting the Ravens, heart pounding as usual against Steelers. This could be the start of something special. Go grab that first win, go all out with your heart, push your chips all in, claw and fight your way to victory. Go get'em boys!!! I believe you can do it. We'll be rooting for you every step of the way. Go Ravens!

[rmcjacket23]

I don't take the Steelers lightly, even without Big Ben. There are 22 starters and they will have 20 starters playing (Not including Pouncey as he is on IR). They are at home, another advantage. Do I think the Ravens have a chance at winning? Yes, without a doubt but as long as Ravens play the game at a high level to have a chance which I think Ravens will be ready to do so. A -2.5 favorite is nothing, pretty much means the game can go either way. I will watch the game, cheering and supporting the Ravens, heart pounding as usual against Steelers. This could be the start of something special. Go grab that first win, go all out with your heart, push your chips all in, claw and fight your way to victory. Go get'em boys!!! I believe you can do it. We'll be rooting for you every step of the way. Go Ravens!

A 2.5 point favorite on the road means basically Vegas thinks we are about a TD better (5.5 points) than the Steelers (as both teams presently assembled) on a neutral field.

 

The Steelers were 3.5 point favorites at home when Big Ben was out, so basically, Vegas thinks we are equal teams when Big Ben was playing.

[thisme007]

We will win by a field goal.?.?.?

[salamander]

Worried about the nature of Gillmore's calf injury. Read an article about Victor Cruz's "pulled calf injury". Cruz had not practiced since Aug. 17th til recently, where he re-injured it. I hope Gillmore's injury is not anywhere near as severe. The thought of Gillmore possibly out for a month to 6 weeks is horrible to contemplate. Gillmore is 1 of my absolute favorite players and hope it is a minor problem. We need you on the field Crockett so sending best wishes your way. Heal up and hope to see you mow down defenders soon.

[ibleedpurpleandblack]

We would've had the money for Torrey Smith if we didn't keep SSS. Why wouldn't Ozzie want to keep a young, developing receiver and spend millions of dollars for a 36 year old receiver in SSS? We knew Steve Smith was going to retire at some point- he can't play much longer. I'm sure Ozzie realizes his huge mistake now, but it wouldn't been good to keep Torrey- Ozzie has to get this "rent a receiver" mentality out of his head. In regards to Torrey Smith's current performance with the 49ers, let's all please remember that he has Kapernick throwing to him (another RG3) and that the 49ers lost a ton of talent this year and aren't the same team (as we are now) a year or two ago. At least when Torrey was around, he would get huge gains off of PI calls- he lead the league last year for most PI yards gained- so let's not say his production was down last year- and he opened up everything for the other receivers- that's why Flacco posted career numbers last year with the passing game. Does this now make sense for everybody in realizing how valuable Torrey was? Ozzie, at the very least, we should have at least kept Jacoby, then we wouldn't have to even consider putting our only legitimate receiver, SSS, as our punt returner.

 

Torrey's fate was decided in the final play at NE when he quit his route and watched the DB make the game sealing interception.  

[TheConquerorWorm]

A 2.5 point favorite on the road means basically Vegas thinks we are about a TD better (5.5 points) than the Steelers (as both teams presently assembled) on a neutral field.

 

The Steelers were 3.5 point favorites at home when Big Ben was out, so basically, Vegas thinks we are equal teams when Big Ben was playing.

Vegas line has nothing to do with what team is better, what team should win, etc. A Vegas line has to do with the number of bets, PERIOD. With Ben out, no one is betting on the Squealers as a favorite and most were betting on Baltimore plus the points; therefore, the oddsmakers switched the line to get more people to bet on the Squealers by giving them the points.

[rmcjacket23]

Vegas line has nothing to do with what team is better, what team should win, etc. A Vegas line has to do with the number of bets, PERIOD. With Ben out, no one is betting on the Squealers as a favorite and most were betting on Baltimore plus the points; therefore, the oddsmakers switched the line to get more people to bet on the Squealers by giving them the points.

Sort of right, sort of wrong.

 

1. The opening line very much is an indication of how Vegas perceives the two teams. The opening line has nothing to do with bets, because there currently are no bets. The opening line is a number that Vegas believes will be a realistic representation of the game the moment they post the number.

 

2. Betting will fluctuate the line, among other things. In this case, when I mentioned the Steelers initially being a favorite, that was mostly a lie, because most sports books never posted the Steelers as an actual betting favorite this week. Ben was injured on Sunday, and his injury status was known before Vegas largely publicized their opening line and started taking bets on it, so for most books the "opening line" was Ravens -2.5, so they really aren't encouraging people to bet one way or another, since Vegas' ultimate goal is to get an equal amount of bets on both sides.

 

So if an uneven amount of action were being bet on the Ravens, if Vegas wants equal betting on both sides, they'd raise the line, possibly above 3. Same thing applies if people are betting heavy on the Steelers right now... if they want equal betting, which they do, then they'd raise the line for the Steelers, possibly to a pick em (though it wouldn't move that much).

 

The Steelers -3.5 line is what Vegas announced WOULD have been the line if Ben was playing. Its essentially a fictional line developed by Vegas that they announced what would have been. You may have been lucky enough to find an online site that would have taken that wager a week or so ago, but Vegas sports books on-site generally don't allow bets like that more than a week out.

 

As it were, its the exact same reason why some of the books currently (MGM for one) doesn't have a point spread posted for Saints/Cowboys, because they don't want bets being taken without the information of Drew Brees' status available.

Edited October 1, 2015 by rmcjacket23

[SSRavenFan]

I think this game will make or break our season. If we beat the Steelers tonight I think that momentum will carry over and help us take care of the Browns and 49ers, I doubt we will beat Arizona but then we have Chargers, Jags, Rams, browns and Dolphins so we can easily be 8-4 at this point, Then we have Seahawks, Chiefs, Steelers and Bengals to finish out the season, we need to win two of the last fours game and I think we're in the playoffs. GO RAVENS

I said the same thing on a different board last night, Prino61. This is the first W and we can turn the season around game by game - but we have to win this one.  

[roamingcharges]

Isn't this all just a bunch of hind sight second-guessing though? I mean the list of people thinking the Monroe/Pitta/Webb contracts were terrible when they were given was very, very, very, very, very short. So its just sort of lazy convenience to come out now and say "o well those were bad contracts".

 

As far as draft picks, he hasn't been as good for sure, but then again a lot of the guys you listed are mid-round picks, which has always basically been a coin flip situation, even a decade or more ago when he was considered so great. Expecting any GM to hit on 3rd or 4th rounders every year is sort of a ridiculous expectation from the fans. Keep in mind, for every Jah Reid, there's a Rick Wagner. For every Ed Dickson, there's a Brandon Williams.

 

We miss out on dozens of potential signings every year... as do other teams. Most of them we probably never had the money to get, and of course, most fans wait until the exact moment they start playing well elsewhere to start using them as an example of players we should have signed. Funny thing is... I never hear a peep of apologies from people who advocate we sign somebody and then that player sucks elsewhere.

 

If we had the opportunity to get Jared Allen, we wouldn't have and shouldn't have. He's a 4-3 DE who has struggled as a 3-4 OLB, he's aging, and its not exactly the kind of trade you make for an 0-3 team. 

• Yes it is second guessing but that is life. You get second guessed by your employer, the President gets second guessed by the nation, your children second guess you just as much as you second guessed your parents. Point is, we have the right to look back and either commend or criticise; it is the right thing to do, it's called being held accountable for our actions.

 

• Missing out "like other teams" is not actually my point; I do not root for "other teams"-- frankly I couldn't care less what they do. If I were a Browns fan I'd have an expectations standard that would be vastly different from if I was a Packers' fan. I'm a Ravens fan and my expectations are commensurate with the standard set by the team over the years. And sadly we have had more Reids than Wagners of late-- don't take my word for it, check the records.

 

• As for Jared Allen; A pass rusher is a pass rusher. Dumervil is a pure pass rusher that gives you little in the run game but I'll take that one trick pony any day of the week and 16 times on Sunday-- why; cos that is one helluva trick! The Baltimore Ravens need capable pass rushers to help that secondary out, there is no way around that fact.

[RavensBaltimore]

1. The opening line very much is an indication of how Vegas perceives the two teams. The opening line has nothing to do with bets, because there currently are no bets. The opening line is a number that Vegas believes will be a realistic representation of the game the moment they post the number.

I don't think so. I think the opening line is an indication of how Vegas perceives the public, not the two teams. They set the opening line based on how they think the public will bet, and they adjust it from there. Of course, this is just speculation on my part, as I have never worked with anyone that has anything to do with making betting lines, but I do know that Vegas makes their money based on how people bet, not the actual outcome of the games, so I think it's safe to assume that when they set a line, they're more interested in the public's betting tendencies than who they actually think will win.

[Bat-mite]

Is Babin active for tonight?

[NCMan]

Vegas line has nothing to do with what team is better, what team should win, etc. A Vegas line has to do with the number of bets, PERIOD. With Ben out, no one is betting on the Squealers as a favorite and most were betting on Baltimore plus the points; therefore, the oddsmakers switched the line to get more people to bet on the Squealers by giving them the points.

Actually, that is incorrect. A Vegas line has to do with the amount of money bet, not the number of bets. PERIOD.

Edited October 1, 2015 by NCMan

[rmcjacket23]

 

• Yes it is second guessing but that is life. You get second guessed by your employer, the President gets second guessed by the nation, your children second guess you just as much as you second guessed your parents. Point is, we have the right to look back and either commend or criticise; it is the right thing to do, it's called being held accountable for our actions.

 

• Missing out "like other teams" is not actually my point; I do not root for "other teams"-- frankly I couldn't care less what they do. If I were a Browns fan I'd have an expectations standard that would be vastly different from if I was a Packers' fan. I'm a Ravens fan and my expectations are commensurate with the standard set by the team over the years. And sadly we have had more Reids than Wagners of late-- don't take my word for it, check the records.

 

• As for Jared Allen; A pass rusher is a pass rusher. Dumervil is a pure pass rusher that gives you little in the run game but I'll take that one trick pony any day of the week and 16 times on Sunday-- why; cos that is one helluva trick! The Baltimore Ravens need capable pass rushers to help that secondary out, there is no way around that fact.

 

1. Umm, no. We as fans are not, in any way, holding the team accountable for their actions. The only way to hold them accountable for their actions is with your wallet, i.e. stop watching games, stop buying merchandise, stop attending games. From what I can tell, that hasn't happened yet. 

 

Criticizing teams or personnel on fanboards doesn't in any way hold anybody accountable for anything, because that implies that there's some sort of punishment for those actions, which without our wallets, we have no control over. Remember, criticism without actual punishment or negative consequences of some kind isn't accountability. Its just criticism.

 

As such, its not really the right thing to do... its the lazy thing to do. The RIGHT thing to do would be to propose actual solutions or ideas on how to solve the problem or how to not create the problem again. That's the right thing to do. Its a "right" in the sense that you can do it, but its not a "right" in the sense that you should do it. Doesn't benefit the fanbase, doesn't benefit the franchise, doesn't hold anybody accountable. 

 

2. What other teams do is very important to me, and it should be to every fan, because what other teams do have an absolutely gigantic impact on what the team you root for does. It sounds like that might be an expectation problem on your end, not on the Ravens end. I look at things with perspective... I don't expect my team to hit on every draft pick, and I expect them to miss more than they hit. I make that basis because the same thing is happening industry wide. I don't put an unreasonable expectation of having 80% of my draft picks become 10 year starters. If you do, that's fine. But that's not a Ravens problem.

 

If I were to spend time looking at our draft picks in the first five rounds since, say, 2008, my guess is I would justify about 50% of them being solid draft picks. Its an inherently subjective argument, given that what somebody considers solid isn't what everybody else does. If I get 4-5 years of decent play out of a fifth round pick, I personally consider that pretty good, given what I've seen industry wide from such positions. 

 

3. No, pass rushers aren't pass rushers, which is one reason, among others, that Allen didn't succeed in Chicago. There's also the debate of whether or not Allen actually IS a capable pass rusher anymore. He WAS one, but WAS and IS are two completely different things.

Edited October 1, 2015 by rmcjacket23

[rmcjacket23]

I don't think so. I think the opening line is an indication of how Vegas perceives the public, not the two teams. They set the opening line based on how they think the public will bet, and they adjust it from there. Of course, this is just speculation on my part, as I have never worked with anyone that has anything to do with making betting lines, but I do know that Vegas makes their money based on how people bet, not the actual outcome of the games, so I think it's safe to assume that when they set a line, they're more interested in the public's betting tendencies than who they actually think will win.

Sure, but the two generally go hand in hand. The opening line is a line by which Vegas feels the betting action will be equal on each side. By definition, that generally means setting a number that is indicative of the perceived spread difference of the actual game being played.

 

Logically, a 3 point spread indicates that one team would be expected to beat another team by 3 points. Thus, if Vegas thinks the overall public view this the same way (which is what they try to gauge when they set the line), they can guesstimate that half the money will go one way and half will go another. 

 

As that guesstimate chances into actual betting, the line shifts accordingly.

[RavensFootballFan]

A 2.5 point favorite on the road means basically Vegas thinks we are about a TD better (5.5 points) than the Steelers (as both teams presently assembled) on a neutral field.

 

The Steelers were 3.5 point favorites at home when Big Ben was out, so basically, Vegas thinks we are equal teams when Big Ben was playing.

 

Vegas thinks we are equal teams before Big Ben was hurt? At Pittsburgh? You're kidding, right? Late For Work from Ravens web site said Vegas had the Steelers at -4 points, not 3.5 points before Big Ben was hurt. Sure a Ben less Steelers is a swing of a touchdown in changing the odds to "even" things out. 

[daniel_ca]

We need Babin tonight

[rmcjacket23]

Vegas thinks we are equal teams before Big Ben was hurt? At Pittsburgh? You're kidding, right? Late For Work from Ravens web site said Vegas had the Steelers at -4 points, not 3.5 points before Big Ben was hurt. Sure a Ben less Steelers is a swing of a touchdown in changing the odds to "even" things out. 

I mean they don't technically think we are equal, but they typically give roughly 3 points in the direction of the home team.

 

So even at -4, if the game were on a neutral field, that would make the Steelers a 1 point betting favorite. Or, at least initially, they'd expect an equal number of money bet on each side. A 1 point favorite is basically just a pick em game anyway, so they are basically saying they think the same amount of money would be bet on Baltimore as Pittsburgh on a neutral field.

[RavensFootballFan]

I mean they don't technically think we are equal, but they typically give roughly 3 points in the direction of the home team.

 

So even at -4, if the game were on a neutral field, that would make the Steelers a 1 point betting favorite. Or, at least initially, they'd expect an equal number of money bet on each side. A 1 point favorite is basically just a pick em game anyway, so they are basically saying they think the same amount of money would be bet on Baltimore as Pittsburgh on a neutral field.

 

Ok, Now I understand what you're saying from a betting perspective of Vegas trying to making money. Thanks for your input. 

[boldtown]

optimist says ravens. realist says pitt. the ravens can't fix their shortcomings in three days.

[Bohica5]

We are so bad i really can't see any of our players risking injury to win the rest of the year.....I wouldn't....Maybe we win vs the jags and 1 against the Clowns....That's all....

[Crusader]

Ravens are emotionally drained as soon as they get behind it will collapse in a meltdown. The first sign will be penalties.

[Crusader]

We will win by a field goal.?.?.?

Not in this rain

[rmcjacket23]

optimist says ravens. realist says pitt. the ravens can't fix their shortcomings in three days.

Not convinced the Steelers can fix there's in three days either...

[Crusader]

Ravens will stop Brown as much as they stopped Green.