2016 Cap Space

[rmcjacket23]

Personally I'm getting sick of pick hoarding and bargain bin shopping, it's a good tactic when you can hit on your bargain FA's and get a lot of day 1 contribution out of your draft picks but when you miss you pay the price like we are this year (It's a good class, but very young and raw this year). It can pay off like with Forsett and Daniels but it can also fail miserably and I'm not fond of the gamble this classic Ozzie philosophy entails anymore. So far Arrington and Kendrick Lewis have been massive whiffs, yet we passed up the likes of Raheem Moore and Browner/Cox/Culliver because they went at mid tier prices when we knew all along we could trade/cut Ngata to get the cap room if we needed it.

 

Even teams like the Patriots who have a similar philosophy of not going after high profile FA's are smart enough to go after guys like Jabaal Sheard in FA who may not be bargain bin price range but are worth the money they command. Ozzie doesn't even go after guys that are truly worth their asking price if they aren't dirt cheap and it's coming back to bite us. We cheapskated out on Perrish Cox negotiations, looking at our corner situation now try to tell me Cox wasn't worth his asking price.

 

Would it kill us to get one "gimme" signing in FA, one guy you can look at and say "the odds of him succeeding are good". Way too many young guys being asked to play beyond their means this year and we're paying for it, building through the draft is important but when you abandon FA completely to hoard picks you're not putting the team in the best position to succeed imo. I like that we don't get suckered into paying massive contracts to other team's FA's but I also don't like the extent to which we shop out of the bargain bin. There needs to be a balance, much like NE and GB.

1. GB is a terrible example, because they basically don't sign any FA's at all. I don't remember the exact number, but I believe on the MNF graphic it was like 5 or less of the 53 players on the Packers active roster have played for another team outside of GB in their career, and a couple of those guys were like James Jones, who played there, left, and came back.

 

2. We typically shop out of the bargain bin because we like to sign our own players most of the time, much like the Packers. I think the biggest flaw here is that far too many fans only view the salary cap in a one year microscope, and can't or won't look beyond that.

 

So maybe we go sign a Brandon Browner (who I actually don't think is that great a corner to a $5-6M a year contract. And sure we can afford that in 2015. But what about 2016, and 2017? Maybe that $5-6M we gave to Browner is the reason why Yanda or Osemele doesn't resign here. Do we know that for certain? Maybe not.

 

Maybe Joe doesn't agree to an extension after this season. Or maybe, in order to afford to keep Browner and somebody like Yanda, we have to cut 2-3 guys that are quality depth or even starting caliber players (a Daryl Smith perhaps) that we now need to replace. And then injuries occur, and that depth we once had now no longer exists, and our FO looks unprepared for it.

 

If there's one thing I generally give the FO credit for, its they have a very advanced understanding of the salary cap, and most importantly, they can at least somewhat visualize at least a three year window of a salary cap. We know fans pretty much can't do this at all, and I'm not convinced some FO's out there understand this either based on some of their decisions.

 

So when fans look at signing mid-tier or high-priced FAs, you always should ask yourself if we can afford those players for THREE years, not for one year.

 

We could have afford Pernell McPhee or Haloti Ngata in 2015 if we wanted to. The problem is... we couldn't afford them at that price beyond that.

[rmcjacket23]

I disagree i like forte, i didnt think forsett would have another good year to be honest, forte would be serviceable until we can find someone. Forte knows the system, forte is experienced, patient. I dont know about you but if this running game woe continues then we might need him, because god knows how long it will be till we draft a good running back. 

RBs you can usually get youthfully in the draft and plug and play right away. They generally don't take a ton of development.

[sflegend89]

1. GB is a terrible example, because they basically don't sign any FA's at all. I don't remember the exact number, but I believe on the MNF graphic it was like 5 or less of the 53 players on the Packers active roster have played for another team outside of GB in their career, and a couple of those guys were like James Jones, who played there, left, and came back.

 

2. We typically shop out of the bargain bin because we like to sign our own players most of the time, much like the Packers. I think the biggest flaw here is that far too many fans only view the salary cap in a one year microscope, and can't or won't look beyond that.

 

So maybe we go sign a Brandon Browner (who I actually don't think is that great a corner to a $5-6M a year contract. And sure we can afford that in 2015. But what about 2016, and 2017? Maybe that $5-6M we gave to Browner is the reason why Yanda or Osemele doesn't resign here. Do we know that for certain? Maybe not.

 

Maybe Joe doesn't agree to an extension after this season. Or maybe, in order to afford to keep Browner and somebody like Yanda, we have to cut 2-3 guys that are quality depth or even starting caliber players (a Daryl Smith perhaps) that we now need to replace. And then injuries occur, and that depth we once had now no longer exists, and our FO looks unprepared for it.

 

If there's one thing I generally give the FO credit for, its they have a very advanced understanding of the salary cap, and most importantly, they can at least somewhat visualize at least a three year window of a salary cap. We know fans pretty much can't do this at all, and I'm not convinced some FO's out there understand this either based on some of their decisions.

 

So when fans look at signing mid-tier or high-priced FAs, you always should ask yourself if we can afford those players for THREE years, not for one year.

 

We could have afford Pernell McPhee or Haloti Ngata in 2015 if we wanted to. The problem is... we couldn't afford them at that price beyond that.

 

You make some good points about looking ahead but the ratio of cap money we have to the product on the field this year is still troublesome. I think we absolutely could've afforded a Browner/Cox/Culliver beyond 2015 without sacrificing our ability to retain our own FA's. I also think Joe will restructure, we've seen Brady and Ben do it to help out their front office and improve the overall quality of the team and I think Joe will have no problem doing the same. It's not a big discrepancy in the money will make regardless and would help the team considerably. 

 

The Packers big signing this year was Cobb and while he was already with the team that is still a major signing. We didn't have a major player to re-sign, we got the extension done for Jimmy which was great but it's not like we had a major player that we needed to set a bulk of our cap aside to retain. McPhee and Torrey we let walk, we trade Ngata, some of that money needs to be re-invested into the team. It's great that we have more cap than usual rolling into next year but the product on the field has suffered as a result.

Edited September 30, 2015 by sflegend89

[curtis0360]

RBs you can usually get youthfully in the draft and plug and play right away. They generally don't take a ton of development.

 

RBs you can usually get youthfully in the draft and plug and play right away. They generally don't take a ton of development.

 

RBs you can usually get youthfully in the draft and plug and play right away. They generally don't take a ton of development.

Im talking ray rice type level, if we draft top 15 this year in the draft then we should find a good running back. Keep in mind you cant just plug and play a 4th or 5th rounder. 

Edited September 30, 2015 by curtis0360

[GrimCoconut]

Im talking ray rice type level, if we draft top 15 this year in the draft then we should find a good running back. Keep in mind you cant just plug and play a 4th or 5th rounder.

Alfred Morris (6th round pick) says what's up.

[rmcjacket23]

Im talking ray rice type level, if we draft top 15 this year in the draft then we should find a good running back. Keep in mind you cant just plug and play a 4th or 5th rounder. 

Well, maybe not a 4th or 5th rounder, but if you look around the league...

 

Jamaal Charles: third rounder

Matt Forte: second rounder

LeSean McCoy: second rounder

Arian Foster: UDFA

 

Just as some examples. There's plenty of mid-round RBs who do quite well in this league, given an offensive line that can block.

 

We've seen teams plug and play fourth round RBs multiple times before and it works.

[usmccharles]

Its funny, during the offseason before any moves were really made, i had a feeling Marshall was going to be on the move, i picked him coming here because of Trestman.  Odd to have the Jeffery talk now.  I also mentioned Garcon numerous times for a future veteran wr vet, nice to see others mentioning him now. 

 

Without trying to sound like a Madden fanboy, i think the jeffery thing is a no brainer if we can get him for a second rounder.  As someone stated above, im sick of having the most draft picks in the league and not having much to show for it.  Even if BP was on the field right now, id still push for Jeffery because next year with out SSR this wr corps is going to be very flat.  Giving up a second for a known top wr is an easy call for me and i know we will lose the ability to sign others, but just like every year, you have to pick your poison and for once it would be nice to give Joe a nice big weapon.   Knowing our FO they will not doing anything because they will still  have faith in Aiken, Camp, and Waller to take over fulltime next year. 

 

Draft picks are only good if you can turn them into production on the field.  Bringing Jeffery here and paying him would be a huge step for this young team moving forward, Jeffery is still young and going into his prime and yet can bring a veteran like presence.  Its hard to sound logical when your talking about trading for an elite guy because that hardly every happens, but it just seems like for once it would be a great idea for this organization to go out and get a top flight guy and spend the cash.  I know we brought in Boldin, but he wasnt an elite guy, dude was a beast no doubt, but i dont think anyone would of put him in the top ten wrs in the years we had him.  Trade for Jeffery then we can use our draft picks on all defense or OL.  I dont see too many negatives here, but im not as smart as most on here when it comes to cap space..or anything else really.  I assume we will draft a cb in the first round and prolly another wr in the second, why not just pull the trigger on a top ten guy already.  just a thought. i know it wont happen

 

rant over

[cushrinada1986]

Most of what anyone would ever want to know about NFL salary situations and team cap details: http://overthecap.com

 

Asking about key FAs is always kind of the wrong question to ask when talking about Ozzie, since signing FAs entails sacrificing Compensatory picks. The real question is who will be next season's cap casualties. 

Ozzie is a draft wizard and more thank likely FO will be looking towards stocking up on as many picks as possible which may be the plan in 2016 because I can see Oz making some serious moves up and down the draft this year getting up back to fighting form. will hit the targets he knows best, LB to help out CJ and an aging Smith, DB to finally release or trade webb out and bring in some younger blood Jimmy can help mold and possibly more safety help if our new FS cant cut it. 

[ratedr]

Mods can you change this title to the "2016 Cap Space/FA Thread"? We're already basically in offseason mode.

I'm questioning if Upshaw will be re-signed, and Webb will likely be cut.

[Static]

Get rid of Upshaw , what a bust ugh.

ZDS is already More productive than him.

[Moderator 3]

Mods can you change this title to the "2016 Cap Space/FA Thread"? We're already basically in offseason mode.

I'm questioning if Upshaw will be re-signed, and Webb will likely be cut.

Would be better to start a new thread on Free Agents.

[ratedr]

Get rid of Upshaw , what a bust ugh.

ZDS is already More productive than him.

He always seems to come in fatter than the previous year.

[ratedr]

Would be better to start a new thread on Free Agents.

Will do.

[billick]

Upshaw couldn't drop back and cover his Mom.

 

Please, we need athletic LB's so the ILB's don't have to cover TE's while out of position to do so.

 

Watch the games, huh ?

[jboy]

Can someone please explain why and for how long does Ray Rice's contract count against us ? And Haloti's contract also right ? We have a lot of dead money in the cap, when does it go away ?

[redrum52]

We're good next year. Their dead money I'm pretty sure is off the books. I think if Rice was cut in the off aeason his money would've been freed up for this season, but it was done week 2. Ngatas hit is this year cause he was traded right before FA started.

Edited October 15, 2015 by redrum52

[jdynamite]

Any resident capologists here? Since we're dangerously close to being fully in 2016 mode, it might be a good idea to look ahead to 2016 FA, which of course starts with the cap.

I believe Ray Rice finally comes off the books after this year. Ngata should too.

What happens with Pitta? And what are the savings if Webb is cut?

Flacco of course needs to restructure but it's hard to know how much that will save right now.

Callahan09 used to really be the stats and cap detail guy. I wonder if he's still on as much? When I clicked this I was actually hoping it would be him breaking down salary cap figures etc.

[usmccharles]

so will we actually have a decent amount to spend in FA? and when i say decent i mean compared to what we are used to spending. 

[ant2ney]

Are we really in that good of a shape come 2016?

 

I keep reading this, however according to overthecap.com (http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/baltimore-ravens then click the 2016 tab) we are already committed to $136m. Remove Steve Smith and that is $133m

 

The current 2015 cap is $142m (don't think that includes Zuttah restructure and Wright/Mostert signings) so we are only $9m better off, and that's before Yanda/ Tucker/ Osemele (probably gone) are factored in

 

The Flacco increase from $14.5 to $28.5 pretty much accounts for the dead money that comes off the books.

 

If Flacco doesn't extend/ restructure or the cap doesn't go up by a significant amount then I don't see us having much room to do anything in the FA market.

 

Is this the case or am I misreading the numbers?

[usmccharles]

looks like we can save a good amount cutting D.Smith and Canty.  Add in the chances of Elam and Webb, that could be about an extra 9.5+ mill

 

I dont know how likely those 4 are, but then if SSR does retire, thats another 3 totaling 12mill.  That would put us at the 124 mark if i am correct?  Im just trying simple math, dont know if it is that simple, but that is a decent amount of money to make somethings happen

[Ravens2343]

looks like we can save a good amount cutting D.Smith and Canty.  Add in the chances of Elam and Webb, that could be about an extra 9.5+ mill

 

I dont know how likely those 4 are, but then if SSR does retire, thats another 3 totaling 12mill.  That would put us at the 124 mark if i am correct?  Im just trying simple math, dont know if it is that simple, but that is a decent amount of money to make somethings happen

 

If my math is right cutting Webb would result in 6 million of dead money.  I hate to say it but once they restructured and he took a pay cut last year, he may survive another season with us.  The only way he doesn't is if he gets seriously hurt, but his play has not been that bad this year.  Canty is definitely gone and Daryl Smith is a good possibility.  If SSS and Pitta retire I believe we wills till owe them a little money also.  Our cap situation should be pretty good with all the dead money coming back and a Flacco extension though

[rmcjacket23]

If my math is right cutting Webb would result in 6 million of dead money.  I hate to say it but once they restructured and he took a pay cut last year, he may survive another season with us.  The only way he doesn't is if he gets seriously hurt, but his play has not been that bad this year.  Canty is definitely gone and Daryl Smith is a good possibility.  If SSS and Pitta retire I believe we wills till owe them a little money also.  Our cap situation should be pretty good with all the dead money coming back and a Flacco extension though

Sure, but dead money doesn't really matter as long as there's cap savings that comes from it, which in Webb's case there is. We would save $3.5M against the 2016 cap by cutting him.

 

So the real question is whether you can find a viable replacement for Webb for the $3.5M cap savings you get from him.

[Ravens2343]

Sure, but dead money doesn't really matter as long as there's cap savings that comes from it, which in Webb's case there is. We would save $3.5M against the 2016 cap by cutting him.

 

So the real question is whether you can find a viable replacement for Webb for the $3.5M cap savings you get from him.

 

Good catch I was not aware there was that much cap savings to be had if we cut Webb.  I may be in the minority but I thought he was playing pretty well this year, but finding a replacement will be tough.  If we made other moves to free up cap space then I wouldn't mind keeping Webb, signing a decent free agent and addressing it high in the draft.  Webb is a pretty good slot corner when healthy, that's the problem though.  Speaking of Daryl Smith, I think a good replacement for him would be for us to try and lure Sean Spence here to replace him.  The Steelers cap situation will be horrendous and he has a lot of speed, something we desperately need on our defense

[rmcjacket23]

Good catch I was not aware there was that much cap savings to be had if we cut Webb.  I may be in the minority but I thought he was playing pretty well this year, but finding a replacement will be tough.  If we made other moves to free up cap space then I wouldn't mind keeping Webb, signing a decent free agent and addressing it high in the draft.  Webb is a pretty good slot corner when healthy, that's the problem though.  Speaking of Daryl Smith, I think a good replacement for him would be for us to try and lure Sean Spence here to replace him.  The Steelers cap situation will be horrendous and he has a lot of speed, something we desperately need on our defense

If he had a fully healthy season, he'd probably stay.

 

Given his injury history, they probably release him.

[Ravens2343]

If he had a fully healthy season, he'd probably stay.

 

Given his injury history, they probably release him.

 

You are probably right, unless he agrees to take another pay cut.  We will probably keep Arrington then if we do cut Webb

[rmcjacket23]

You are probably right, unless he agrees to take another pay cut.  We will probably keep Arrington then if we do cut Webb

Possible, not sure how realistic it is though. He's scheduled to make $5.5M next season. When somebody is asked to take a paycut two years in a row, unless they're like an aging veteran who desperately wants a ring or to play for that team, they generally look to move on.

[Ravens2343]

Possible, not sure how realistic it is though. He's scheduled to make $5.5M next season. When somebody is asked to take a paycut two years in a row, unless they're like an aging veteran who desperately wants a ring or to play for that team, they generally look to move on.

 

That's true, it will be sad for me to see Webb go.  He has really performed well when given the opportunity to play in the slot recently, but just cannot shake the injury bug.  If we cut him I would like us to go after someone like Janoris Jenkins and then draft someone like Hargreaves in the first round on top of that

[Cillmatic]

I know this is the definition of a pipe dream but Von Miller's a free agent this season... I'll go I over there now.

[PurpleCity5]

I wouldn't cut Webb. He was having a good season until that injury Sunday, not to mention he really only had one injury prone year, that was last season. I don't consider Webb injury prone because of a torn ACL. Those are freak accidents. He had a strong 2013 campaign in which he rebounded from that torn ACL and looked good. Also, Id rather sign a FA FS then a FA CB.

Edited October 16, 2015 by PurpleCity5

[Ravens2343]

I wouldn't cut Webb. He was having a good season until that injury yesturday, not to mention he really only had one injury prone year, that was last season. I don't consider Webb injury prone because of a torn ACL. Those are freak accidents. He had a strong 2013 campaign in which he rebounded from that torn ACL and looked good. Also, Id rather sign a FA FS then a FA CB.

 

I don't want to see him cut either, but he is not consistently healthy.  We need to have guys that can be counted on to be there every week.  I agree he has looked good recently and he seems to thrive playing in the slot, but I think his chances of staying are right around 50%.  There are only 3 safeties worth our time in FA and they are Weddle, Gipson and Berry.  I do not think we have a realistic chance of either of those 3 guys