2016 WR Prospect Thread

[gabefergy]

7 minutes ago, sflegend89 said:

Anybody else love Michael Thomas? Best route runner in the entire class, his feet remind me of Antonio Brown, he gets in and out of his cuts so smoothly. Doesn't have blazing straight line speed but he's sneaky quick in space and has no wasted motion in his routes, that's something the best WR's in the NFL have all mastered, no wasted motion. On top of that he's pretty damn good with the ball in his hands, Thomas is a guy I see rising after his workouts.. he's going to put on a show with his quickness/route running that is going to get NFL scouts buzzing.

I like him, but I'm not overly fond of the "sluggish" type. I think he and Boyd both will be nice #2 WRs that can help a team immediately, but also have a somewhat limited upside. 

[Clmraven]

18 minutes ago, sflegend89 said:

Anybody else love Michael Thomas? Best route runner in the entire class, his feet remind me of Antonio Brown, he gets in and out of his cuts so smoothly. Doesn't have blazing straight line speed but he's sneaky quick in space and has no wasted motion in his routes, that's something the best WR's in the NFL have all mastered, no wasted motion. On top of that he's pretty damn good with the ball in his hands, Thomas is a guy I see rising after his workouts.. he's going to put on a show with his quickness/route running that is going to get NFL scouts buzzing.

I'm a big fan of his play, but the fact that he didn't produce at all until his junior season kinda scares me, he only had 3 catches as a freshman in 2012 but then red shirted in 2013 apparently because he struggled to pick up the play book. That may not mean much in the long run, but you have to wonder if he can really step in immediately and play well.

 

also he's already got a borderline 1st round grade and you said it yourself he'll probably rise after his workouts putting him out of reach in the second.

Edited February 11, 2016 by Clmraven

[sflegend89]

21 minutes ago, RavensFanMania said:

I have to say I haven't watched much tape on him to this point, but what I've seen is pretty good.  I just hope he's not as much a knucklehead as his uncle. 

 

I think he's one of those players that you have to understand the technical side of playing the position to really appreciate. May not have as sexy of a highlight tape as guys like Miller/Coleman because he's a bigger guy with a larger frame but his technical skill is immense for a WR built like him. Route running, concentration, no wasted motion.. I mean he absolutely breaks Kendall Fullers ankles with his stutter move and that was one of the best CB's in the nation. Unfortunately I think he'll go in that 20-31 range and we won't get a shot at drafting him unless we trade up.

Edited February 11, 2016 by sflegend89

[GrimCoconut]

I'm not calling anyone out here but I love how every WR who can run routes that has good hands is called another Antonio Brown. I hate comparing prospects to current pros unless we're saying the prospect could become like said comparison eventually. 

Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas isn't a good comparison and Corey Coleman may actually be a better comparison for Brown since both were fast players with great change of direction and YAC ability who could return the ball but needed work on their routes. I don't see Antonio Brown in Michael Thomas at all. 

[Jacquouille]

I don't know if he's been brought up before on this topic, but how do you guys feel about Aaron Burbridge? He looks like the absolute reliable target.

[GrimCoconut]

23 minutes ago, Jacquouille said:

I don't know if he's been brought up before on this topic, but how do you guys feel about Aaron Burbridge? He looks like the absolute reliable target.

I like him quite a bit. I also really like my man Hunter Sharp better, though, but Burbridge is a really good prospect imo. 

[ngatainmyhouse]

Duke Williams in the 6th round would be a pretty solid move

[rmw10]

1 hour ago, GrimCoconut said:

I'm not calling anyone out here but I love how every WR who can run routes that has good hands is called another Antonio Brown. I hate comparing prospects to current pros unless we're saying the prospect could become like said comparison eventually. 

Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas isn't a good comparison and Corey Coleman may actually be a better comparison for Brown since both were fast players with great change of direction and YAC ability who could return the ball but needed work on their routes. I don't see Antonio Brown in Michael Thomas at all. 

Yeah I don't see that comparison at all either lol

[gabefergy]

2 hours ago, GrimCoconut said:

I'm not calling anyone out here but I love how every WR who can run routes that has good hands is called another Antonio Brown. I hate comparing prospects to current pros unless we're saying the prospect could become like said comparison eventually. 

Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas isn't a good comparison and Corey Coleman may actually be a better comparison for Brown since both were fast players with great change of direction and YAC ability who could return the ball but needed work on their routes. I don't see Antonio Brown in Michael Thomas at all. 

I haven't been able to come across a great comp for Thomas. I see a bit of Brandon Marshall in that he's a big guy with sudden movements, but Marshall is a rare talent in how he uses his size to create separation. I'm not sure I see that in Thomas.

[BmoreBird22]

On 2/11/2016 at 0:27 AM, gabefergy said:

It's just really just one issue, and that issue is he wasn't asked to do it very often. He doesn't shy away from contact. He makes contested catches. He's easily the most explosive playmaker at the WR position in this draft. Is it a projection? Yes. On the flip side, he could easily be the best WR in this class by a wide margin given his special traits. I can't say the same about any other WR in this class.

When he was asked to do it, allowed way too many passes into his body and dropped many of them with a defender closing in. He wasn't asked to do it much possibly because he's scared to go over the middle. His dropped pass rate is around 12%, most of that coming when he was asked to go over the middle.

So, not only is he rarely asked to run routes over the middle, but he also drops them when he does. Couple this with a smaller receiver who can be walled off to the sideline by bigger, more physical receivers and you have a huge issue on your hands.

[gabefergy]

53 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

When he was asked to do it, allowed way too many passes into his body and dropped many of them with a defender closing in. He wasn't asked to do it much possibly because he's scared to go over the middle. His dropped pass rate is around 12%, most of that coming when he was asked to go over the middle.

So, not only is he rarely asked to run routes over the middle, but he also drops them when he does. Couple this with a smaller receiver who can be walled off to the sideline by bigger, more physical receivers and you have a huge issue on your hands.

You are making up stats, and you know it.

[BmoreBird22]

1 hour ago, gabefergy said:

You are making up stats, and you know it.

"I counted his drop rate at 14.6 percent (17.8 percent (!!!) with games including rain), which is quite high. That doesn't include some of his contested catches, which I counted as PDs, where he was three of eight attempts (37.5%).

For some context, the NFL.com scouting report has it at 11.9 percent, but the evaluator seems to be marking drops per target and I am marking drops per "drops plus catch"—modifying his formula to mine and PFF's makes his effective drop rate, according to Lance Zierlein, 14.4%."

http://www.dailynorseman.com/2016/2/11/10965050/scouting-report-corey-coleman-and-the-fringe-case

Yeah? Or maybe I just do research.

[gabefergy]

11 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

"I counted his drop rate at 14.6 percent (17.8 percent (!!!) with games including rain), which is quite high. That doesn't include some of his contested catches, which I counted as PDs, where he was three of eight attempts (37.5%).

For some context, the NFL.com scouting report has it at 11.9 percent, but the evaluator seems to be marking drops per target and I am marking drops per "drops plus catch"—modifying his formula to mine and PFF's makes his effective drop rate, according to Lance Zierlein, 14.4%."

http://www.dailynorseman.com/2016/2/11/10965050/scouting-report-corey-coleman-and-the-fringe-case

Yeah? Or maybe I just do research.

This has nothing to do with where his drops were or what percentage of his routes went over the middle, so no you didn't do any research, you copied and pasted someone else's research that has nothing to do with the point you were trying, but failed, to make.

[BmoreBird22]

1 minute ago, gabefergy said:

This has nothing to do with where his drops were or what percentage of his routes went over the middle, so no you didn't do any research, you copied and pasted someone else's research that has nothing to do with the point you were trying, but failed, to make.

"Dropped 10 passes for a drop rate of 11.9 percent. Loses focus and concentration on routes that work towards the middle of the field or when he senses defenders are closing in."

He's not widely viewed by any analyst, whatsoever, as a legitimate threat over the middle and there are major concerns over his ability to go over the middle.

[gabefergy]

2 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

"Dropped 10 passes for a drop rate of 11.9 percent. Loses focus and concentration on routes that work towards the middle of the field or when he senses defenders are closing in."

He's not widely viewed by any analyst, whatsoever, as a legitimate threat over the middle and there are major concerns over his ability to go over the middle.

By one blogger. I'll trust my eyes over someone else's that has no better credentials than you or I. 

 

It's not as if one of the most respected analysts in the media and former Ravens scout Daniel Jeremiah has him as his WR1

On underneath throws, he attacks the ball and shows a big-time burst to generate yards after the catch. He lacks ideal wiggle but he has the strength to break tackles. Overall, he will need some time to develop as a route runner but his combination of burst and ball skills is special.

Pretty much exactly what I have said from the beginning.

OR you could ask Josh Norris, who writes for a real website and also has Coleman as his WR1 and #3 overall player 

Functional athleticism helped Coleman win both “small” and “big” while at Baylor, and the latter is difficult to find with a 5’10/190 lbs receiver. Coleman will win contested catches, elevating over corners or adjusting with body control to haul in targets. Add that on top of vertical speed, quickness in and out of breaks and yards after catch ability, and Coleman has the tools to be an all-around receiver.

So we can play this game all day long. You have your opinion, I have mine. I'm not going to hold the offensive system against the player when I see rare athletic and explosive traits in a WR. I don't see a player that shies away from contact or is unwilling to go over the middle. Drops are a concern, but not a big enough concern to negate the rest of the awesomness. Amari Cooper led the league in drops this past season, does that mean he's a bad WR? 

 

 

[BmoreBird22]

6 minutes ago, gabefergy said:

By one blogger. I'll trust my eyes over someone else's that has no better credentials than you or I. 

Both NFL.com and CBS.com have called into question his ability to actually catch with consistency. One blogger just happened to do far more scouting than you or I do and happened to track the numbers. 

I could post just as many scouting reports about him as you that say otherwise to that, but the fact of the matter, for me, is that he runs over 50% of his routes on the boundary and has a drop rate of at least 12%, possibly higher. He allows too many passes into his frame and doesn't work back for the ball, which is extremely concerning for someone who runs as many curls as Coleman. His lack of tendency to work back to the ball and tendency to let the ball into his frame has really hurt him as a 50/50 ball type guy. 

Sure, he can absolutely fly and he's really explosive, but he's got a ton of flaws you seem to be unwilling to admit.

[gabefergy]

4 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

Both NFL.com and CBS.com have called into question his ability to actually catch with consistency. One blogger just happened to do far more scouting than you or I do and happened to track the numbers. 

I could post just as many scouting reports about him as you that say otherwise to that, but the fact of the matter, for me, is that he runs over 50% of his routes on the boundary and has a drop rate of at least 12%, possibly higher. He allows too many passes into his frame and doesn't work back for the ball, which is extremely concerning for someone who runs as many curls as Coleman. His lack of tendency to work back to the ball and tendency to let the ball into his frame has really hurt him as a 50/50 ball type guy. 

Sure, he can absolutely fly and he's really explosive, but he's got a ton of flaws you seem to be unwilling to admit.

I've admitted his flaws as I see them. Where he runs his routes is not a flaw, it's called a system. I don't know why that is so hard to understand. He really doesn't allow that many passes into his frame, that would be an inaccurate statement. I have watched every single one of his games that are available online so I have done the research. I haven't charted every route run or every drop, but what I have done is consistently noted WR specific traits that translate to the NFL. He doesn't have bad hands as you seem to be insinuating. His catching technique is good, he plucks the ball away from his frame the vast majority of the time. He could be stronger at the point of attack in some cases, but it's not a fatal flaw or a consistent problem. He makes catches in traffic. 

[CalvinSmoke]

On 2/2/2016 at 5:11 AM, ngatainmyhouse said:

I don't know if I missed this, but what're everyone's thoughts on Pharaoh Cooper? 

Cooper is nice. I'd take Shepard over him but Cooper is right there for a guy that can eat up the slot. 

[BmoreBird22]

5 minutes ago, gabefergy said:

I've admitted his flaws as I see them. Where he runs his routes is not a flaw, it's called a system. I don't know why that is so hard to understand. He really doesn't allow that many passes into his frame, that would be an inaccurate statement. I have watched every single one of his games that are available online so I have done the research. I haven't charted every route run or every drop, but what I have done is consistently noted WR specific traits that translate to the NFL. He doesn't have bad hands as you seem to be insinuating. His catching technique is good, he plucks the ball away from his frame the vast majority of the time. He could be stronger at the point of attack in some cases, but it's not a fatal flaw or a consistent problem. He makes catches in traffic. 

I didn't say it was a flaw, but when he's dropping passes, losing concentration, getting thrown off his game based on where he runs his routes, that is an issue. Besides, what I did say is it's a concern because unless I'm completely wrong, Baylor does utilize the middle of the field for their passing plays. Just because he's in a spread system doesn't mean that the route tree is completely shaven down to only feature three routes. 

His catching technique is good and he has good hands, which is exactly why his drop rate is up around 12%-15% when it's actually tracked by people. That makes a lot of sense. Sure, he really does show some good hands on his vertical routes, but watch him on curls/slants/any route that doesn't require him to track the deep ball and he has a tendency to allow the ball into his body. I'll admit he shows a good catch radius, but if that ball is placed in the numbers, he's probably allowing it into the numbers. He also only catches 53.6% of his targets to go along with that drop rate. I know, not all of that is his fault because balls could be thrown poorly, but it's still a low number. 

Where did you find those games? I've seen the ones on draftbreakdown.com and those are the only ones (all 6). That's still more than a lot of scouts will watch before passing judgement, though. 

[gabefergy]

1 hour ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I didn't say it was a flaw, but when he's dropping passes, losing concentration, getting thrown off his game based on where he runs his routes, that is an issue. Besides, what I did say is it's a concern because unless I'm completely wrong, Baylor does utilize the middle of the field for their passing plays. Just because he's in a spread system doesn't mean that the route tree is completely shaven down to only feature three routes. 

His catching technique is good and he has good hands, which is exactly why his drop rate is up around 12%-15% when it's actually tracked by people. That makes a lot of sense. Sure, he really does show some good hands on his vertical routes, but watch him on curls/slants/any route that doesn't require him to track the deep ball and he has a tendency to allow the ball into his body. I'll admit he shows a good catch radius, but if that ball is placed in the numbers, he's probably allowing it into the numbers. He also only catches 53.6% of his targets to go along with that drop rate. I know, not all of that is his fault because balls could be thrown poorly, but it's still a low number. 

Where did you find those games? I've seen the ones on draftbreakdown.com and those are the only ones (all 6). That's still more than a lot of scouts will watch before passing judgement, though. 

I just completely disagree with most everything you are saying. The sarcastic attitude isn't helping your argument either. I've been breaking down WRs for a long time and I have a strong grasp of good catching technique vs bad. Marqise Lee had a terrible catching technique. I was extremely negative towards him compared to most on this board and I have been proven to be correct. Sure, sometimes a ball will get into a WR's body. If it's a consistent occurence, then maybe you have a problem. It's NOT a consistent occurence with Coleman. You say 53.6% of targets were caught? That is not what I have seen, although once again I did not do the charting. This website has him at 61.2% and that is despite some of the worst QB play I have seen over the 2nd half of the 2015 season. Baylor was literally playing a WR with zero previous collegiate QB XP. Does he need to learn a more advanced route tree? Yes. Was he primarily used as a boundary receiver? Yes. Those facts don't influence my evaluation one iota, and frankly there is no reason for them to be given any real consideration. Can Coleman make contested catches? Yes. Does he have sudden movement skills and the ability to sink his hips in and out of breaks? Yes. Can he beat press coverage? Yes. If you want to hang onto your notion that he is a limited WR that's fine, but I am fully confident Coleman will not only be a high draft pick, I am also confident that he will be a very good NFL WR.

[BmoreBird22]

5 minutes ago, gabefergy said:

I just completely disagree with most everything you are saying. The sarcastic attitude isn't helping your argument either. I've been breaking down WRs for a long time and I have a strong grasp of good catching technique vs bad. Marqise Lee had a terrible catching technique. I was extremely negative towards him compared to most on this board and I have been proven to be correct. Sure, sometimes a ball will get into a WR's body. If it's a consistent occurence, then maybe you have a problem. It's NOT a consistent occurence with Coleman. You say 53.6% of targets were caught? That is not what I have seen, although once again I did not do the charting. This website has him at 61.2% and that is despite some of the worst QB play I have seen over the 2nd half of the 2015 season. Baylor was literally playing a WR with zero previous collegiate QB XP. Does he need to learn a more advanced route tree? Yes. Was he primarily used as a boundary receiver? Yes. Those facts don't influence my evaluation one iota, and frankly there is no reason for them to be given any real consideration. Can Coleman make contested catches? Yes. Does he have sudden movement skills and the ability to sink his hips in and out of breaks? Yes. Can he beat press coverage? Yes. If you want to hang onto your notion that he is a limited WR that's fine, but I am fully confident Coleman will not only be a high draft pick, I am also confident that he will be a very good NFL WR.

That's completely fine that you've been breaking down receivers, but you don't have any credibility to say that he has good catching technique after you acknowledged earlier that neither you or I has more credibility than that blogger (whose breakdown you should read. It's very thorough and vastly superior to anything I have seen on here or from a scouting report). Basically, you have what you think is knowledge, but no proof since I doubt any professional website has actually used you as a reference. If they have, please, provide it.

Oh, man, you were right a whole one time on Marqise Lee (a receiver who many soured on as the draft approached). Should we give you a medal? Oh right, there's that sarcasm which usually comes out when someone has a long fall from that high horse of theirs. 

It definitely is a consistent occurrence with Coleman on slants/comebacks/anything over the middle. It is a consistent issue in that regard. I suppose you could say argue it's not a consistent issue since the vast majority of his routes are vertical based routes and he does well there, but when he is asked to comeback to the ball or go across the middle, it's an issue.

Here's the website that I used. It's only got 10 games (that would be the discrepancy, I suppose), but it includes 7 of the 10 games that Seth Russell played in. http://ncaasavant.com/player.php?player_name=C.Coleman&team=baylor&year=2015

At this point in time, he is limited. And hey, maybe he can buck the trend and actually become one of the complete Baylor receivers to come out since Terrance Williams and Josh Gordon definitely showed to be much better in the deep passing game. History and tape aren't on his side.

[gabefergy]

4 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

That's completely fine that you've been breaking down receivers, but you don't have any credibility to say that he has good catching technique after you acknowledged earlier that neither you or I has more credibility than that blogger (whose breakdown you should read. It's very thorough and vastly superior to anything I have seen on here or from a scouting report). Basically, you have what you think is knowledge, but no proof since I doubt any professional website has actually used you as a reference. If they have, please, provide it.

Oh, man, you were right a whole one time on Marqise Lee (a receiver who many soured on as the draft approached). Should we give you a medal? Oh right, there's that sarcasm which usually comes out when someone has a long fall from that high horse of theirs. 

It definitely is a consistent occurrence with Coleman on slants/comebacks/anything over the middle. It is a consistent issue in that regard. I suppose you could say argue it's not a consistent issue since the vast majority of his routes are vertical based routes and he does well there, but when he is asked to comeback to the ball or go across the middle, it's an issue.

Here's the website that I used. It's only got 10 games (that would be the discrepancy, I suppose), but it includes 7 of the 10 games that Seth Russell played in. http://ncaasavant.com/player.php?player_name=C.Coleman&team=baylor&year=2015

At this point in time, he is limited. And hey, maybe he can buck the trend and actually become one of the complete Baylor receivers to come out since Terrance Williams and Josh Gordon definitely showed to be much better in the deep passing game. History and tape aren't on his side.

How about you show some evidence of all these times "anything over the middle" results in drops and body catches? Like in which games at which point. That would be evidence. So instead of making up or exaggerating statistics, why don't you show me this consistent failure to make plays over the middle. 

[BmoreBird22]

6 minutes ago, gabefergy said:

How about you show some evidence of all these times "anything over the middle" results in drops and body catches? Like in which games at which point. That would be evidence. So instead of making up or exaggerating statistics, why don't you show me this consistent failure to make plays over the middle. 

I don't know how to make a GIF and post it onto here, but tomorrow, I'll go ahead and get on draftbreakdown and post the exact games and times. 

I didn't make up statistics as they were all from other sources, which I happily showed you. 

[gabefergy]

7 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I don't know how to make a GIF and post it onto here, but tomorrow, I'll go ahead and get on draftbreakdown and post the exact games and times. 

I didn't make up statistics as they were all from other sources, which I happily showed you. 

Saying the marjority of his drops came when he went over the middle is completely made up, so no, you're wrong.

[CalvinSmoke]

well... that was fun

[JoeyFlex5]

Can we all just agree that we won't be getting Coleman anyway lol

[sflegend89]

Going to sit down this weekend and dig for as much film/articles as I can on the top WR's this year. Will post a thread with my observations and rankings probably on Monday.

[outkast1]

6 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

 

 

4 hours ago, sflegend89 said:

Going to sit down this weekend and dig for as much film/articles as I can on the top WR's this year. Will post a thread with my observations and rankings probably on Monday.

Check Out !Bralon Addison, Will Fuller,Braxton Miller and Damarcus Robinson

[BmoreBird22]

12 hours ago, gabefergy said:

Saying the marjority of his drops came when he went over the middle is completely made up, so no, you're wrong.

It's an issue on slants in all the games I've seen. The vast majority I have seen in videos have come over the middle because he allows way too many catches into his body when he's going over the middle, so no, I'm not. You have done zero research and probably don't even review any game tape. You probably watched his videos once four months ago and try to act like you're some professional scout.

[RaineV1]

I'd say the top ten receivers are:

1: Treadwell
2: Coleman
3: Michael Thomas
4: Boyd
5: Shepard
6: Higgins
7: Fuller
8: Cooper
9: Addison
10: Miller

I'd be pretty happy to see any of these guys playing for the Ravens next year.
 

Edited February 13, 2016 by RaineV1