2016 WR Prospect Thread

[Maryland]

Demaryius Thomas came from a triple-option offense where he ran a handful of routes. I personally don't believe that what you're asked to do necessarily dictates what you can do.

I think this sums it up perfectly. 

 

The one thing that might worry me is if the player in question also shows a poor football IQ, whether at individual pre-draft interviews or with an abysmal wonderlic test (though I am fully aware a lot of good NFL players score poorly on the wonderlic).

 

Cordarelle Patterson was totally raw, lacked football smarts, and scored extremely low on the wonderlic. The odds were against him to develop into a good route runner, and consequently, he was extremely slow in learning the playbook and still cannot be depended on to run the correct routes. I wouldn't trust someone like that to develop into a reliable receiver. 

[BmoreBird22]

Lack of effort is clearly a coaching decision. I don't think a limited route tree in college is a big knock either. He clearly shows the ability to run routes when asked to do so. Size is the only legitimate knock.

We don't know that it won't carry over, though. The coaches tell him it's okay to take plays off because it's not going his way, but that could breed a bad mentality. He's gone from being the star in high school to be a Belitnikoff contender in an offense that says, "Hey, it's okay to not give 100% if you aren't the one getting the ball." That's a fine line to walk and we'll have no idea until interviews.

 

He's asked to run very few routes and pretty much just runs boundary routes. Assume that's about the extent of his route running right now- can he consistently win as a boundary receiver, who's only played on the left side, in the NFL? How well is he going to adjust to moving around and playing in the slot?

 

He got his first taste of a top 30 passing defense in Oklahoma and apparently was the biggest disappointment of the night. He's about to face two top 75 passing defenses in Texas and TCU, with TCU also being a ranked team. How he responds to this little non-cupcake stretch (ranked Oklahoma, ranked Oklahoma State, Texas, ranked TCU) will go a long way into how much stock I put into him as a receiver.

[BmoreBird22]

Demaryius Thomas came from a triple-option offense where he ran a handful of routes. I personally don't believe that what you're asked to do necessarily dictates what you can do.

But there is also an inherent difference between the triple-option and the spread offense. The triple option looks for receivers who are big and can block. They aren't looking for great pass catchers. With the spread offense, they aren't scrapping pass plays and they're certainly passing far more than the triple-option. 

Consider this- in 2010, the year that Thomas was drafted, Georgia Tech passed the third fewest times out of 120 qualifying teams. GT passed 12 times per game, on average, as compared to Baylor throwing it nearly 29 times per game, or nearly 2.5 times as much. GT also ranked second to last in pass yards per game and in the bottom quarter for pass yards per attempt. There is a massive difference between the offense Thomas came from and the one that Coleman is coming from.

 

But even still, Thomas was incredibly raw in his route running for about three and a half, four years. He ran quite a few screens, go routes, and comebacks and made quite the living off of pick plays and off man/softer zones that allowed him to catch the ball in space and then use his speed and size to make people miss. When players got up in his face and pressed and got physical, he didn't show that great of footwork or timing in and out of his breaks to show this amazing craftsmanship in his route running. I can't say much for last year since I wasn't watching a ton of Broncos games, but I'm sure he steadily improved.

However, I will say one thing that likely helped him improve a ton is the fact that he had Peyton Manning, the greatest and most cerebral mind that football has ever seen, to help coach him up and help him as a mentor on and off the field. Coleman won't be afforded that opportunity, in all likelihood, and if he's going to go as high as Gabe thinks he could, chances are, he's probably not playing with a great quarterback. Is he going to be willing to put in the same work that DT did and actually be able to improve like DT?

And to be clear, I never said he couldn't become a great receiver, become a great pass catcher, or what ever, but right now, I doubt his ability to be a nuanced route runner at the next level. Coming in as a rookie and during the early years, I'd personally temper my expectations for his role within an offense based off of what I've seen.

[PurpleCity5]

I would easily pull the trigger if Michael Thomas was there in the 2nd.

[RaineV1]

I would easily pull the trigger if Michael Thomas was there in the 2nd.

Agreed. Thomas playing opposite of Perriman or Givens would be like having the Boldin and Torrey combination again. Possibly better.

[GrimCoconut]

On Coleman, I won't reply to all the replies above. I haven't watched him enough to give an honest opinion. I'll watch him myself to give my opinion on his talent, and then I'll wait for interviews to tell me his work ethic.

With that said, I wouldn't take him in the first unless he's clearly another Antonio Brown because of where I expect we'll pick I don't see him as best value.

I honestly think this draft class is kinda average with very few elite talents and reminds me very much of the 2012 class.

Edited November 16, 2015 by GrimCoconut

[PurpleCity5]

Agreed. Thomas playing opposite of Perriman or Givens would be like having the Boldin and Torrey combination again. Possibly better.

I feel that these WRs won't be seen as elite talent and one of these so-called top options will drop to the 2nd.

[RaineV1]

I feel that these WRs won't be seen as elite talent and one of these so-called top options will drop to the 2nd.

I'm thinking that Thomas is one of the best candidates to take a slide simply because he won't be quite as athletic as the other receivers. Basically the same thing that happened to Boldin. However, Williams (due to his injury) and Coleman (due to his size) have a chance to slip into the second as well. All three of them could end up playing better than some of the receivers picked ahead of them.

[gabefergy]

We don't know that it won't carry over, though. The coaches tell him it's okay to take plays off because it's not going his way, but that could breed a bad mentality. He's gone from being the star in high school to be a Belitnikoff contender in an offense that says, "Hey, it's okay to not give 100% if you aren't the one getting the ball." That's a fine line to walk and we'll have no idea until interviews.

 

He's asked to run very few routes and pretty much just runs boundary routes. Assume that's about the extent of his route running right now- can he consistently win as a boundary receiver, who's only played on the left side, in the NFL? How well is he going to adjust to moving around and playing in the slot?

 

He got his first taste of a top 30 passing defense in Oklahoma and apparently was the biggest disappointment of the night. He's about to face two top 75 passing defenses in Texas and TCU, with TCU also being a ranked team. How he responds to this little non-cupcake stretch (ranked Oklahoma, ranked Oklahoma State, Texas, ranked TCU) will go a long way into how much stock I put into him as a receiver.

Okay, but once again, it's not just him who isn't running routes or blocking on run plays. The coaches have stated multiple times it's not something they focus on. You see 3 WRs just standing there on a lot of the running plays or they just run the DB off. They aren't asked to block very often.

 

He's not just a boundary receiver at all. He runs a lot of slants and skinny posts as well. I think it's foolish to say a player can't do something when there is no evidence to suggest that is the case. You have to look at the offense and figure out what is he asked to do, and evaluate that. Evaluate the physical traits that translate to the NFL, not the system he is playing in.

 

I've seen enough to say he is a lock to go in the first round, how high in the first round probably depends on how well he tests athletically. There isn't much else he needs to show on the field.

[GrimCoconut]

I think Boyd will slide into the second round and possibly as low as the very high third. I don't think he'll post a great combine and I think his speed, which isn't bad but won't be great either, will force him down. This may be exaggerated due to his little DUI or DWI or whatever it was earlier in the year.

He'll clearly be worth it in the third or late second.

[gabefergy]

I think Boyd will slide into the second round and possibly as low as the very high third. I don't think he'll post a great combine and I think his speed, which isn't bad but won't be great either, will force him down. This may be exaggerated due to his little DUI or DWI or whatever it was earlier in the year.

He'll clearly be worth it in the third or late second.

I'd probably take Boyd in the 2nd, I just don't think he is a first rounder.

[GrimCoconut]

I'd probably take Boyd in the 2nd, I just don't think he is a first rounder.

I don't think he'll go in the first. I do think he's really talented and I really like him a lot, but I really don't find this WR class very strong and just don't value any to take them in the first. Boyd could still go in the first, but I think his stock is very fluid and I wouldn't be surprised if he fell to the very early third, which is where I think his floor is.

[BmoreBird22]

Okay, but once again, it's not just him who isn't running routes or blocking on run plays. The coaches have stated multiple times it's not something they focus on. You see 3 WRs just standing there on a lot of the running plays or they just run the DB off. They aren't asked to block very often.

He's not just a boundary receiver at all. He runs a lot of slants and skinny posts as well. I think it's foolish to say a player can't do something when there is no evidence to suggest that is the case. You have to look at the offense and figure out what is he asked to do, and evaluate that. Evaluate the physical traits that translate to the NFL, not the system he is playing in.

I've seen enough to say he is a lock to go in the first round, how high in the first round probably depends on how well he tests athletically. There isn't much else he needs to show on the field.

And are those other receivers going to get drafted or go in the first round? Probably not, otherwise the same questions would apply for them, too. You still have no idea whether or not it will carry over because you don't know what his work ethic is like. We'll have to wait for interviews to see.

What I meant by being a boundary receiver is that he runs all his routes from the left outside the numbers and doesn't run slants, drags, square ins, etc. Seriously, though, I highly doubt an offense will severely limit what you do, especially when the spread utilizes all routes, if you are able to run the full route tree. Right now his route tree is very limited and he's going to have to show that he's more than just someone who goes deep or takes short hitches and screens for big ggains by virtue of being a superior athlete.

Again, he can start showing that in these next three, tough games or in the Smior Bowl

[Baltimore RAYvens]

I wouldn't take him in the first unless he's clearly another Antonio Brown because of where I expect we'll pick I don't see him as best value.

I honestly think this draft class is kinda average with very few elite talents and reminds me very much of the 2012 class.

 

That's exactly why I think this is the perfect year for us to be down and turn it around. At the rate we're going we can get an elite talent up top and still get stellar value with the second pick in a guy like Coleman 

[ravefan52]

On tape Mike Williams from Clemson is my favorite WR in this class. However, with the neck injury causing him to be out for the year and him only being a junior he may go back to school. But if he does enter I would love to get him, assuming his medicals are good. If we could snatch him with a trade up into the late 1st from our 2nd that would be awesome. He's a bit raw but has a freakish combo of size, speed and athleticism. I also love his ability to go up and get it and after the catch. I think he could be a top WR in this league.

Edited November 16, 2015 by ravefan52

[Challenge Accepted]

I honestly think Treadwell could fall into the late first, possibly even the second. Even though he is often compared to Dez Bryant, he plays just like him. However, Treadwell is noticeably slower than Dez and not elusive  in the open field.

[GrimCoconut]

I honestly think Treadwell could fall into the late first, possibly even the second. Even though he is often compared to Dez Bryant, he plays just like him. However, Treadwell is noticeably slower than Dez and not elusive  in the open field.

I think that's a bit bold. I don't see Treadwell falling out of the first round, and I don't think he will get into the late first, but it could happen. 

[LosT_in_TranSlatioN]

I'd probably take Boyd in the 2nd, I just don't think he is a first rounder.

Eh Idk. I still think he's safer than a bunch of the WRs. I could see him is a mid to late first rounder.. But I agree. I think he falls to the second. And if he falls there, I want us to scoop him up. I don't care if I said I never want Ozzie to draft a WR again. It makes too much sense and we have his old WR coach. He'd fit in like a glove in all honesty.

[-Truth-]

But there is also an inherent difference between the triple-option and the spread offense. The triple option looks for receivers who are big and can block. They aren't looking for great pass catchers. With the spread offense, they aren't scrapping pass plays and they're certainly passing far more than the triple-option. 

Consider this- in 2010, the year that Thomas was drafted, Georgia Tech passed the third fewest times out of 120 qualifying teams. GT passed 12 times per game, on average, as compared to Baylor throwing it nearly 29 times per game, or nearly 2.5 times as much. GT also ranked second to last in pass yards per game and in the bottom quarter for pass yards per attempt. There is a massive difference between the offense Thomas came from and the one that Coleman is coming from.

 

But even still, Thomas was incredibly raw in his route running for about three and a half, four years. He ran quite a few screens, go routes, and comebacks and made quite the living off of pick plays and off man/softer zones that allowed him to catch the ball in space and then use his speed and size to make people miss. When players got up in his face and pressed and got physical, he didn't show that great of footwork or timing in and out of his breaks to show this amazing craftsmanship in his route running. I can't say much for last year since I wasn't watching a ton of Broncos games, but I'm sure he steadily improved.

However, I will say one thing that likely helped him improve a ton is the fact that he had Peyton Manning, the greatest and most cerebral mind that football has ever seen, to help coach him up and help him as a mentor on and off the field. Coleman won't be afforded that opportunity, in all likelihood, and if he's going to go as high as Gabe thinks he could, chances are, he's probably not playing with a great quarterback. Is he going to be willing to put in the same work that DT did and actually be able to improve like DT?

And to be clear, I never said he couldn't become a great receiver, become a great pass catcher, or what ever, but right now, I doubt his ability to be a nuanced route runner at the next level. Coming in as a rookie and during the early years, I'd personally temper my expectations for his role within an offense based off of what I've seen.

 

No doubt about the difference between the two schemes, and I had no intentions of even implying otherwise. However, it doesn't refute the gist of my point. The fact that neither Thomas nor Coleman were asked to run the entire tree doesn't define their limitations as route runners. This isn't to say that Coleman will automatically flourish into the savviest of route runners in his first season. My point is that I don't see this is a general ceiling that will remain throughout his career. On a side note, I believe it's unfair to Thomas to credit Manning for the majority of Thomas' development as a route runner. Manning certainly does deserve credit for assisting, especially since timing is so crucial within . That being said, I thought Thomas showed marked improvement in this department during the waning stretch of his 2011 season. He was slightly heavy-footed at times and the footwork was a bit  choppy, but he ran the majority of the route tree during the breakout portion of the campaign. In the Pittsburgh, Minnesota and both of the New England games, he didn't have a single completion on a screen pass nor was he a recipient on a rub route. He was effective against both off and press coverage and was routinely asked to win in one-on-one match ups. Honestly, the only routes I didn't see from him were the corner and out routes and the only gadget completion I saw was a shovel pass. It wasn't until Manning arrived that Thomas was utilized more often in space. It definitely should be qualified as a gradual improvement, so I agree in that regard. But he's at a point where it's no longer a weak link and I feel that Coleman could arrive at the same destination. I don't think he'll necessarily require a top tier QB to reach that point.

[BmoreBird22]

No doubt about the difference between the two schemes, and I had no intentions of even implying otherwise. However, it doesn't refute the gist of my point. The fact that neither Thomas nor Coleman were asked to run the entire tree doesn't define their limitations as route runners. This isn't to say that Coleman will automatically flourish into the savviest of route runners in his first season. My point is that I don't see this is a general ceiling that will remain throughout his career. On a side note, I believe it's unfair to Thomas to credit Manning for the majority of Thomas' development as a route runner. Manning certainly does deserve credit for assisting, especially since timing is so crucial within . That being said, I thought Thomas showed marked improvement in this department during the waning stretch of his 2011 season. He was slightly heavy-footed at times and the footwork was a bit choppy, but he ran the majority of the route tree during the breakout portion of the campaign. In the Pittsburgh, Minnesota and both of the New England games, he didn't have a single completion on a screen pass nor was he a recipient on a rub route. He was effective against both off and press coverage and was routinely asked to win in one-on-one match ups. Honestly, the only routes I didn't see from him were the corner and out routes and the only gadget completion I saw was a shovel pass. It wasn't until Manning arrived that Thomas was utilized more often in space. It definitely should be qualified as a gradual improvement, so I agree in that regard. But he's at a point where it's no longer a weak link and I feel that Coleman could arrive at the same destination. I don't think he'll necessarily require a top tier QB to reach that point.

My entire point is that we have no idea what he's going to be capable of until he actually goes and does it. To simply say he will be able to do it is naive to me.

Plenty of players were very raw route runners in college and busted their asses to become much better route runners. Golden Tate instantly comes to mind as someone who was very much viewed mostly as a deep threat, but became savvy as hell with work over the course of three years.

However, I'm not going to say Coleman can be some great runner and run the entire route tree before I see it happen. At this point, I still stand by my point that I would imagine he'll come in raw and need work and until he puts in that work, I think his route tree will limit him from being in contention to be the best receiver in the class.

I'm not saying he can't be great, just that he's going to really need to work at it to get there

[Cillmatic]

I honestly think Treadwell could fall into the late first, possibly even the second. Even though he is often compared to Dez Bryant, he plays just like him. However, Treadwell is noticeably slower than Dez and not elusive in the open field.

If he's available in the second I'd trade up to pick #32 to get him. The Browns would probably try to get him before we pick. Edited November 17, 2015 by Cillmatic

[gabefergy]

And are those other receivers going to get drafted or go in the first round? Probably not, otherwise the same questions would apply for them, too. You still have no idea whether or not it will carry over because you don't know what his work ethic is like. We'll have to wait for interviews to see.

What I meant by being a boundary receiver is that he runs all his routes from the left outside the numbers and doesn't run slants, drags, square ins, etc. Seriously, though, I highly doubt an offense will severely limit what you do, especially when the spread utilizes all routes, if you are able to run the full route tree. Right now his route tree is very limited and he's going to have to show that he's more than just someone who goes deep or takes short hitches and screens for big ggains by virtue of being a superior athlete.

Again, he can start showing that in these next three, tough games or in the Smior Bowl

He's not going to just go out and do different things in the next few games, and he is not a senior, so he might not get a chance to do so at the Senior Bowl either unless he gets the redshirt junior invite.

 

The reality is there are very few college WRs who run a full NFL route tree, and even if they do it doesn't  guarantee any success at the next level. 

 

Looking at the skill-set and evaluating how it will translate is what is important.

[Kid87]

Idk if we should draft a Wr 1st round.. I hope we get a Vet WR

[gabefergy]

Idk if we should draft a Wr 1st round.. I hope we get a Vet WR

Ravens are going to be tight against the cap, so any FA of consequence is unlikely. 

[Baltimore RAYvens]

I don't think we'll be looking at first receivers in the first round unless we turn the season around and wind up with 6/7 wins or we trade back. I do love the value in the second with the possibility of Boyd or Coleman sliding down to us there.

 

I don't think that there's many guys out there in FA that would be much of an upgrade over what we have. Likely the top guys will be an oft-injured and cut Victor Cruz, or cap casualty Vincent Jackson

[-Truth-]

My entire point is that we have no idea what he's going to be capable of until he actually goes and does it. To simply say he will be able to do it is naive to me.

Plenty of players were very raw route runners in college and busted their asses to become much better route runners. Golden Tate instantly comes to mind as someone who was very much viewed mostly as a deep threat, but became savvy as hell with work over the course of three years.

However, I'm not going to say Coleman can be some great runner and run the entire route tree before I see it happen. At this point, I still stand by my point that I would imagine he'll come in raw and need work and until he puts in that work, I think his route tree will limit him from being in contention to be the best receiver in the class.

I'm not saying he can't be great, just that he's going to really need to work at it to get there

 

Both of the initial main points can coincide then. My point was that a specific role isn't always indicative of a player's limitations. That doesn't state whether a player is or isn't capable of accomplishing said task, so I don't see where the argument lies. I agree on the following point, and you've supplied a terrific example in Tate. That being said, we'll have to agree to disagree on the final comments. I personally haven't seen enough negative traits from Coleman to suggest that he'll struggle with route running to such a degree that he won't be able to compete for the title of the best receiver in this class. I am forced to project with regards to the matter, but I found him to be fluid, sudden and explosive out of his breaks, which provides me with a degree of comfort when having to do so.

Edited November 19, 2015 by -Truth-

[Shutdown215]

Doctson is done for the season

[PurpleCity5]

Doctson is done for the season

That's unfortunate, really liked the guy. Its 2 games but we've seen team become very weary of injuries.

[GrimCoconut]

I wonder how it affects his stock, if at all. Crazier things have happened and I know it'll look bad with Perriman but I'd go crazy if we somehow got Doctson in the second.

[Inqui]

I wonder how it affects his stock, if at all. Crazier things have happened and I know it'll look bad with Perriman but I'd go crazy if we somehow got Doctson in the second.

Sounds like he might still be cleared to play for a bowl game. Swap "season-ending" injury with "six-week" injury and it's suddenly not so bad.

 

I was thinking something similar about him being there in the second. I think our second-round guy will be a first-rounder who falls for some reason, so if that guy might be Docston I'm completely sold.