Draft picks overvalued? or still important as ever

[rmcjacket23]

I would've given up a 5th rounder for Brandon Marshall any day

True, but it's a 5th rounder plus like $7-8M a year. The latter is more relevant.

[PurpleCity5]

True, but it's a 5th rounder plus like $7-8M a year. The latter is more relevant.

I think we would have done it if we had more cap space. We gave up a 3rd and 4th for Boldin in addition to the fact he had a pretty big price tag.

[arnie_uk]

We need talent bot quantity. Top good players better than 1 good and 2 average.

Move around as much as possible to get the guys the front office think are good.

Good could be swapped with any adjective you want, it's used as an illustrative example.

[Winchester]

goes for everybody what i said lol.

 

really depends on the combine , individual work outs and the intervieuw.

 

if i use flex latest mock id say if a guy like elliot if he drops that far , or lawson or ragland is still around in 20s , id consider go and grab them.

this is if we take treadwell.

 

if not dotson and coleman are guys id target as well if they are there in the 20 s.

leonard floyd maybe.

 

heck any of the top CBs id do it as well.

Since this is not a deep draft there are a couple trade up scenario's. Of course trading back into late round1 is the most obvious. Especially if there is a stud in a position of need like if Jack or Coleman fall and ravens do not get a receiver with pick 6. Then there is trading back into the middle or early round2 to draft another impact player cuz impact players will dry up fast in this draft. One position I am not a fan of Is dbacks in this draft. It is not nearly as talented or deep as last year. I liked Kevin Johnson,Darby and Peters far better than this yrs group of question marks. Besides good cornerbacks surface from nowhere in the NFL as an athletic mid to late round pick turns it on after a couple seasons when the light clicks. Ravens just have to find these players in free agency cheap b4 their breakout. I like Jeremy Lane to be pro bowl caliber. But that is a different topic. Besides I am for setting trends in the league. Not following typical thinking like needing and reaching for a so called shutdown cornerback. One dback is not going to spark a 7 game win difference. A #1 go to receiver will most definitely because the ravens have the players in place and returning so that a #1 receiver completes a prolific offense with a violent overpowering athletic online that mixes run and throw for an offense like never before. A prolific offense with multiple weapons has never fronted a dominating offensive line. With receivers returning next year a #1 receiver added like a Treadwell Coleman or Boyd would put the icing on an award winning wedding cake!! I like Coleman but Treadwell compliments the ravens better with the speed and seperation skills of Campanaro and Perriman. But couldn't argue with any #1 receiver. Superbowl teams are trendsetters not followers. Ravens have opportunity to front an offense and even system never seen before.

[ALSKAN RAVEN FAN]

True, but it's a 5th rounder plus like $7-8M a year. The latter is more relevant.

True however as we both know a team wont make any trade unless they have the cap space to do it so 7-8 Million a year for a guy who has B. Marshals talent is money well spent J.M.H.O.

Edited January 17, 2016 by ALSKAN RAVEN FAN

[Wildabeast88]

goes for everybody what i said lol.

 

really depends on the combine , individual work outs and the intervieuw.

 

if i use flex latest mock id say if a guy like elliot if he drops that far , or lawson or ragland is still around in 20s , id consider go and grab them.

this is if we take treadwell.

 

if not dotson and coleman are guys id target as well if they are there in the 20 s.

leonard floyd maybe.

 

heck any of the top CBs id do it as well.

well it all depends on the scenario and how highly the guy is on our board example of Floyd I would wait and get Noah Spence at 37 instead of trading away picks in my opinion I like Spence a lot and don't see much difference in the two. the WRs I would wait on Boyd instead of moving up but it all depends on the position and how big a drop off there is

[nextgen_RavensFan]

I think draft picks at round 1 and 2 are very over rated. The idea of the draft is awesome but talent can and does get found in every round. I think it depends on the coaching and situation as to whether a player succeeds or not. Kapernick is a great example. All the tools in the world but was rushed by Harb's V2 and was allowed to play college level style until the league caught on and now where is he. RG3 comes to mind as well.

 

So the draft is not over rated but the thought of rounds 1 and 2 being the cream of the crop is silly. If that was the case the Browns should be set by now huh. LOL

[usmccharles]

I think draft picks at round 1 and 2 are very over rated. The idea of the draft is awesome but talent can and does get found in every round. I think it depends on the coaching and situation as to whether a player succeeds or not. Kapernick is a great example. All the tools in the world but was rushed by Harb's V2 and was allowed to play college level style until the league caught on and now where is he. RG3 comes to mind as well.

So the draft is not over rated but the thought of rounds 1 and 2 being the cream of the crop is silly. If that was the case the Browns should be set by now huh. LOL

haha to be fair you have to draft well. I think their scouts have something to do with that

[ravensnick]

I think draft picks at round 1 and 2 are very over rated. The idea of the draft is awesome but talent can and does get found in every round. I think it depends on the coaching and situation as to whether a player succeeds or not. Kapernick is a great example. All the tools in the world but was rushed by Harb's V2 and was allowed to play college level style until the league caught on and now where is he. RG3 comes to mind as well.

 

So the draft is not over rated but the thought of rounds 1 and 2 being the cream of the crop is silly. If that was the case the Browns should be set by now huh. LOL

Very few top level players get selected out of the first round. 

 

For the 2012-2014 Pro Bowls:

Round                                 No. of players                                       Percentage

   

1st Round                                         88                                                51%   

2nd Round                                        21                                                12%

3rd Round                                         20                                                11%    

4th Round                                         11                                                 5.5%    

5th Round                                         8                                                   4%    

6th Round                                         8                                                   4%    

7th Round                                         3                                                   .5%

 

 

Undrafted                                          21                                                 12%

 

Source:http://www.clevelandbrowns.com/news/article-1/Pro-Bowl-talent-found-throughout-the-NFL-draft/a739c152-b49f-472c-a2c8-6e941a194d38

Teams like the Browns suffer from the volume of top level picks they spend on quarterbacks that bust (Manziel and Weeden within the last four years) and the amount of turnover in their coaching staff.

Edited January 18, 2016 by ravensnick

[January J]

Heard this on mike and mike awhile back, forgot to post, so while im here at work i figured i will.

 

The seahawks traded their first round pick (31) for TE Jimmy Graham, the second best TE in the league.  Instead of hoping they hit on a player that they would have drafted at that spot, they took a known dominant player at his position.  Now the drawback is obviously the amount of money it takes to do trades like this, but is it worth it? 

 

Now obviously you cant do this with your entire roster because of the salary cap, this isnt Madden, but at certain positions it seems worth it to me assuming your under the cap and can afford it.  Clearly hitting on players in the draft is preferred since you would have that player on their rookie deal for 5 years. 

 

I was trying to think of an example for our team and was having issues, so just for example: instead of drafting BP in the first round with all the unknowns, trading a first rounder for say...Emanuel Sanders, keena Allen, etc...doesnt seem all that bad, like i said, i just used them as examples.  I know everything comes down to the caproom, but if your telling me could a Fitgerald for 3-4 years, it doesnt sound too bad.  (bad examples)

 

Since we are extremely lucky to have Ozzie, we have always drafted in better grades, but im bored so give me some slack...

i think they would probably have rather had that first round pick

back in hindsight..Graham didn't really work out well for them.I think the picks have to be valued more ..bc if you hit on players in the draft you get them for 4-5 years on the cheap- and that helps you stay under the cap as opposed to dumping 8 or 9 million into a proven vet.

[GrimCoconut]

i think they would probably have rather had that first round pick

back in hindsight..Graham didn't really work out well for them.I think the picks have to be valued more ..bc if you hit on players in the draft you get them for 4-5 years on the cheap- and that helps you stay under the cap as opposed to dumping 8 or 9 million into a proven vet.

Losing the picks, and more importantly a quality starting center, is what did them in this year. They got cute and Wilson had a bad OL because of it.

[January J]

True, but it's a 5th rounder plus like $7-8M a year. The latter is more relevant.

exactly- that's the part that most people don't understand.

[rayven98]

Tough to trade 1st and 2nd round picks.  But I don't think the ravens move up enough later in the draft.  Sending a late 3rd and late 4th to get a player that maybe has slipped a bit is well worth it.  I think the Ravens over-value the 4th, 5th,6th, and 7th round picks way to much.  Especially look at the players they have taken there in the last 3 years.  Some ok players but nothing to whoopy.  Ozzie and Co. really need to be on top of their game because I hope like crazy we aren't drafting anywhere near #6 again for a very long time.

[Maryland]

Drafting well is an absolute necessity in a salary cap league. More picks = cheaper talent to fill more positions. 

 

However, I think that our FO does hoard picks to their detriment in some situations. For example, if they had traded up for who they wanted most last draft, they would have obtained Marcus Peters. They attempted, and ultimately failed, to trade up for Khalil Mack the year before. Both of these players are looking like perennial pro-bowlers. If our FO really wants someone and feels good about them, they should be more willing to move up, even if it means giving away some very good picks. It seems like they have good intuition when they really want someone.

 

Of course, I killed the Falcons for trading the farm for Julio because it opens up tons of holes elsewhere on your roster that would be filled with solid depth, so I guess there is a limit to what they should give up.

[usmccharles]

i think they would probably have rather had that first round pick

back in hindsight..Graham didn't really work out well for them.I think the picks have to be valued more ..bc if you hit on players in the draft you get them for 4-5 years on the cheap- and that helps you stay under the cap as opposed to dumping 8 or 9 million into a proven vet.

I was just using that as a example.  The seahawks dont have that kind of offense to use Graham correctly, they showed that. 

 

Drafting well is an absolute necessity in a salary cap league. More picks = cheaper talent to fill more positions. 

 

However, I think that our FO does hoard picks to their detriment in some situations. For example, if they had traded up for who they wanted most last draft, they would have obtained Marcus Peters. They attempted, and ultimately failed, to trade up for Khalil Mack the year before. Both of these players are looking like perennial pro-bowlers. If our FO really wants someone and feels good about them, they should be more willing to move up, even if it means giving away some very good picks. It seems like they have good intuition when they really want someone.

 

Of course, I killed the Falcons for trading the farm for Julio because it opens up tons of holes elsewhere on your roster that would be filled with solid depth, so I guess there is a limit to what they should give up.

Mack was too far ahead of us imo, im more talking about picks like Dez.  I dont remember where peters was drafted.  The falcons were way more than a WR away from doing things, they set themselves back by doin that trade. 

[GrimCoconut]

Drafting well is an absolute necessity in a salary cap league. More picks = cheaper talent to fill more positions. 

 

However, I think that our FO does hoard picks to their detriment in some situations. For example, if they had traded up for who they wanted most last draft, they would have obtained Marcus Peters. They attempted, and ultimately failed, to trade up for Khalil Mack the year before. Both of these players are looking like perennial pro-bowlers. If our FO really wants someone and feels good about them, they should be more willing to move up, even if it means giving away some very good picks. It seems like they have good intuition when they really want someone.

 

Of course, I killed the Falcons for trading the farm for Julio because it opens up tons of holes elsewhere on your roster that would be filled with solid depth, so I guess there is a limit to what they should give up.

The age-old debate of one guy or many. I have to say that I would very much love to have a Khalil Mack, Odell Beckham Jr, or a Marcus Peters. I can't fault your logic here. I will say that if the right player is there and we think he's a generational talent, only then would I support trading the farm to go up & get him as long as it is no pick compensation beyond the year in which we are currently drafting. Meaning, I wouldn't trade a 2017 Draft pick to trade up for Bosa this year, if he's that guy. 

[usmccharles]

The age-old debate of one guy or many. I have to say that I would very much love to have a Khalil Mack, Odell Beckham Jr, or a Marcus Peters. I can't fault your logic here. I will say that if the right player is there and we think he's a generational talent, only then would I support trading the farm to go up & get him as long as it is no pick compensation beyond the year in which we are currently drafting. Meaning, I wouldn't trade a 2017 Draft pick to trade up for Bosa this year, if he's that guy.

out of curiosity, what would you have given up for mack

[GrimCoconut]

out of curiosity, what would you have given up for mack

Our first three picks in 2014. I love Jernigan, Mosley & Brooks but Mack is a special type of player. I don't think Oakland had any intent on trading the chance to get him, though. I think we fell into that position where we needed a Django-type of offer to get him. Ozzie won't pay that & I can't say I would, either. Losing out on Jernigan, Mosley & Brooks is enough. 

[usmccharles]

Our first three picks in 2014. I love Jernigan, Mosley & Brooks but Mack is a special type of player. I don't think Oakland had any intent on trading the chance to get him, though. I think we fell into that position where we needed a Django-type of offer to get him. Ozzie won't pay that & I can't say I would, either. Losing out on Jernigan, Mosley & Brooks is enough.

so basically we would of missed out on Jernigan and Brooks. Wouldn't have been that bad...

And Django offer? Lol

[GrimCoconut]

so basically we would of missed out on Jernigan and Brooks. Wouldn't have been that bad...

And Django offer? Lol

Yeah, Django offer. I can't really say it here, but it's the "I'll pay $10k for the right kind of..." you can fill in the rest if you watched the movie. 

[usmccharles]

Yeah, Django offer. I can't really say it here, but it's the "I'll pay $10k for the right kind of..." you can fill in the rest if you watched the movie.

haha definitely watched it, it's actually my favorite of his films.

Of course in a year we have a top pick there isn't a huge game changer imo

[rmcjacket23]

True however as we both know a team wont make any trade unless they have the cap space to do it so 7-8 Million a year for a guy who has B. Marshals talent is money well spent J.M.H.O.

Sure, but it means you have to cut players to get that cap space. At the time, who would have been realistic to cut?

 

But that's $8-9M in cap space you'd have to find... and that's at a time where we didn't have much at all. That's why a team like the Jets can make that trade... they had plenty of space.

 

My point was to make sure fans understand that its not simply a case of just trading picks for players and then having those players play for free. Particularly in a trade like that, you are inheriting a pretty large contract, as opposed to signing somebody as a FA and getting the deal you want.

 

In Boldin's case, he was only due $3M the year that we traded for him. We ended up signing him to an extension for more, but we didn't necessarily have to do that if we didn't want to.

[rmcjacket23]

I think draft picks at round 1 and 2 are very over rated. The idea of the draft is awesome but talent can and does get found in every round. I think it depends on the coaching and situation as to whether a player succeeds or not. Kapernick is a great example. All the tools in the world but was rushed by Harb's V2 and was allowed to play college level style until the league caught on and now where is he. RG3 comes to mind as well.

 

So the draft is not over rated but the thought of rounds 1 and 2 being the cream of the crop is silly. If that was the case the Browns should be set by now huh. LOL

Well, rounds 1 and 2 aren't filled with guaranteed good players, that's the issue. But that's been the case since the beginning.

 

The reality, though, is that if you plotted the players drafted over time based on the round they were drafted in, you would see a downward sloping line as you got deeper in the draft in terms of highly productive players. 

 

Basically, if you were to rank all of the better players in the league by what round they were drafted, you'd find the most would be from the first round. The second most would be from the second round, etc. 

[ALSKAN RAVEN FAN]

Sure, but it means you have to cut players to get that cap space. At the time, who would have been realistic to cut?

 

But that's $8-9M in cap space you'd have to find... and that's at a time where we didn't have much at all. That's why a team like the Jets can make that trade... they had plenty of space.

 

My point was to make sure fans understand that its not simply a case of just trading picks for players and then having those players play for free. Particularly in a trade like that, you are inheriting a pretty large contract, as opposed to signing somebody as a FA and getting the deal you want.

 

In Boldin's case, he was only due $3M the year that we traded for him. We ended up signing him to an extension for more, but we didn't necessarily have to do that if we didn't want to.

Agreed mcjacket23 My statement was if we had the cap space but you definitely make a good point. If you don't have the cap space then you just cant trade because as we both know the players contract is going to be what the team your making the deal with agreed to pay the player unless you can extend or renegotiate the deal.

[Maryland]

The age-old debate of one guy or many. I have to say that I would very much love to have a Khalil Mack, Odell Beckham Jr, or a Marcus Peters. I can't fault your logic here. I will say that if the right player is there and we think he's a generational talent, only then would I support trading the farm to go up & get him as long as it is no pick compensation beyond the year in which we are currently drafting. Meaning, I wouldn't trade a 2017 Draft pick to trade up for Bosa this year, if he's that guy. 

I think Mack is shaping up to be one of those generational talents, but hindsight is 20/20 of course. 

 

I guess I'm just saying that, if our FO has a really good feeling about someone like they did with Mack, Peters, or Dez, then they should just go ahead and get them if the trade is reasonable, since they seem to have pretty good judgement in these instances. The difference in talent between those said players and the persons we actually drafted seem to be worth the trade-up imo (Mosley--Mack; Perriman--Peters; Kindle/Cody--Dez). 

 

But there is no perfect answer to this question. These are all subjective, case-by-case situations, and they come with a lot of hindsight and unverifiable information. 

[Guest]

Clearly, with a Salary Cap league, you have to build through the draft or sign unheralded Free Agents.

 

Our problem with drafting of late is that we have not been very good at it.  We have lost ground to our division rivals and to the better teams in the league.

 

Heard this on mike and mike awhile back, forgot to post, so while im here at work i figured i will.

 

The seahawks traded their first round pick (31) for TE Jimmy Graham, the second best TE in the league.  Instead of hoping they hit on a player that they would have drafted at that spot, they took a known dominant player at his position.  Now the drawback is obviously the amount of money it takes to do trades like this, but is it worth it? 

 

Now obviously you cant do this with your entire roster because of the salary cap, this isnt Madden, but at certain positions it seems worth it to me assuming your under the cap and can afford it.  Clearly hitting on players in the draft is preferred since you would have that player on their rookie deal for 5 years. 

 

I was trying to think of an example for our team and was having issues, so just for example: instead of drafting BP in the first round with all the unknowns, trading a first rounder for say...Emanuel Sanders, keena Allen, etc...doesnt seem all that bad, like i said, i just used them as examples.  I know everything comes down to the caproom, but if your telling me could a Fitgerald for 3-4 years, it doesnt sound too bad.  (bad examples)

 

Since we are extremely lucky to have Ozzie, we have always drafted in better grades, but im bored so give me some slack...

[Ravenslifer]

Heard this on mike and mike awhile back, forgot to post, so while im here at work i figured i will.

 

The seahawks traded their first round pick (31) for TE Jimmy Graham, the second best TE in the league.  Instead of hoping they hit on a player that they would have drafted at that spot, they took a known dominant player at his position.  Now the drawback is obviously the amount of money it takes to do trades like this, but is it worth it? 

 

Now obviously you cant do this with your entire roster because of the salary cap, this isnt Madden, but at certain positions it seems worth it to me assuming your under the cap and can afford it.  Clearly hitting on players in the draft is preferred since you would have that player on their rookie deal for 5 years. 

 

I was trying to think of an example for our team and was having issues, so just for example: instead of drafting BP in the first round with all the unknowns, trading a first rounder for say...Emanuel Sanders, keena Allen, etc...doesnt seem all that bad, like i said, i just used them as examples.  I know everything comes down to the caproom, but if your telling me could a Fitgerald for 3-4 years, it doesnt sound too bad.  (bad examples)

 

Since we are extremely lucky to have Ozzie, we have always drafted in better grades, but im bored so give me some slack...

 

The thing I didn't get about the Seahawks trading for Graham is that they are still primarily  a run-heavy team.  Russell Wilson has never in his career crossed 500 passing attempts in a season.  And this is the first year he crossed 3500 yards passing.  Obviously you can't measure the kind of impact a matchup nightmare like Graham gives to a team, but in terms of utilization Wilson threw the ball his way just about half as many times as Brees averaged over the years he was in New Orleans.  Maybe this changes going forward, but paying a guy 8.5 million and not even throwing his way 100 times seems like a major waste of cap space to me.  So if you are going to trade for a known commodity, at any position, and take on a large contract, especially compared to a rookie or lesser tier free agent contract, IMO you better plan on using the guy as much as you can.

[usmccharles]

The thing I didn't get about the Seahawks trading for Graham is that they are still primarily  a run-heavy team.  Russell Wilson has never in his career crossed 500 passing attempts in a season.  And this is the first year he crossed 3500 yards passing.  Obviously you can't measure the kind of impact a matchup nightmare like Graham gives to a team, but in terms of utilization Wilson threw the ball his way just about half as many times as Brees averaged over the years he was in New Orleans.  Maybe this changes going forward, but paying a guy 8.5 million and not even throwing his way 100 times seems like a major waste of cap space to me.  So if you are going to trade for a known commodity, at any position, and take on a large contract, especially compared to a rookie or lesser tier free agent contract, IMO you better plan on using the guy as much as you can.

Yea thats what through me off as well.  Getting rid of a starting center almost got wilson killed at one point. 

[redlobster]

As a side note, I feel slightly bad that Sergio Kindle had the world at his fingertips and screwed it up so royally.

 

He is now selling cars at a Buick GMC dealership in Austin, Texas.

[Purple_City39]

As a side note, I feel slightly bad that Sergio Kindle had the world at his fingertips and screwed it up so royally.

 

He is now selling cars at a Buick GMC dealership in Austin, Texas.

I don't feel bad for him at all if it's true he was drunk when it all happened.  Considering he did have a DUI in his past, I wouldn't be surprised