Draft picks overvalued? or still important as ever

[Guest]

justin gilbert over odell beckham and aaron donald, then they passed on carr twice and bridgewater once for manziel and bitonio(bitonio is alright, but still) i have never seen a team squander such a crazy amount of first round picks so badly, its laughable.

 

I thought the Manziel pick was horrible. Absolutely horrible.  Mike Evans made Manziel at A&M.

 

Good for us.

 

Brownie defense is not half bad. Let's win Two.

[RaineV1]

bitonio is definitely a good player, and a good pick given the current circumstances(that they had picked a qb like 10 picks prior) but the fact that they took manziel there just ruined their shot at redemption, they coulda took teddy over manziel and still got bitonio, they couldve taken a few decent players over manziel and still gotten carr in the 2nd. i laughed so hard when they announced those first 2 picks, and giggled again when i saw that carr was still available for them in the 2nd lol

If they would have had Bridgewater throwing to Beckham Jr. that would be a great offense.

[Tru11]

Graham is a trade acquisition & so is Lynch. Jackson came from Buffalo as well. Williams, their starting CB across from Sherman, came from here & before that Tennessee & Philly after. Wagner was a high 2nd round pick. They only have 4 first round picks still on the team, 4 second round picks still on the team, & 6 3rd round picks still on the team. You can say they have a good team with 25-24 players being UDFA they acquired themselves or got from other teams, but the reality is that they may not be great at drafting & just cut bait quicker than other teams. 

 

the only reality i see is that whatever they are doing its working pretty darn good.

 

back to back SB appearances says enough.

 

they might even get back to it this season if everyone stays healthy.

they look better on paper then last season.

[Maryland]

Sustained success over several years is built on drafting, developing talent, and building depth.

 

Going all-in for a few years method doesn't seem to work, although not everyone tries it. Falcons trading for Julio almost worked, but they lost in the NFCCG. Then they had no depth and a lot of holes on the roster the following years. This is different from just trading a first for Graham (as was your example), but those trades are hard to make because few teams are selling big-name players they just signed like that.

 

I think there are a few teams who should be trading picks for talent to win now (Cowboys and Patriots come to mind) because their QBs are getting old. If they take on some big-name veterans, backload the hell out of their contracts, and then cut them loose in a few years during a salary-dump tank season, they will maximize their chances to win-now and set themselves up to draft a good QB during that tank year.

 

/I've always thought about bad teams with lots of cap space (Raiders, Jags) signing big-name FAs, giving them huge signing bonuses, and then taking the cap hit while trading them for a very good pick, but I assume these trades would be vetoed because they would circumvent the salary cap. 

Edited September 10, 2015 by Maryland

[LosT_in_TranSlatioN]

Draft Picks are

1. Cheaper

2. Less predictable

3. You genrally have a few guarenteed roster spots and they are secure.

So yes, they are still essential to the team

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

Late round picks are getting overvalued imo. I would be very open to trading more late round picks either for players or to move up in early rounds and get the players you really want (Like we did to move up and get Maxx). Anything after the 3rd round becomes a bit of a dice roll. For instance Myers was a total waste of a pick, we could've traded that 5th for a guy who makes our roster and contributes.

Yanda, Rick Wagner, Pitta, Camp, Waller, McPhee, Webb, Art Jones, Urschel, Buck Allen, Tyson, I'm sure I could go on if I had the drafts in front of me...

But tons of starters or solid rotational players we've selected in the 4th round or later. Right now

with one of the best olines in the league... Yanda the best guard in the NFL and Wagner who was arguably the best RT in the nfl last year - both mid-to-late draft picks.

They're incredibly valuable especially when your GM has an extensive track record of hitting on later picks.

Higher draft picks fail all the time and if you consistently trade your late picks to move up in early rounds, you're limiting your chances of hitting on players and decreasing the volume of young talent into the team. You need guys to fill in rotations.

Let's say you did trade up every year for sure fire lock starters in the 1st 3 rounds... Do that 4 years in a row and you've only added 12 players into your team. Even if they all start right away, you have to fill 41 other roster spots. To keep those players you're going to be shelling out top contracts, so you put yourself in a position to fill the majority of your team with scrap heap players.

That's not a formula for success. Key injuries and you're shot. Miss on a couple picks and you're set back for years.

You need those late picks to fill out your roster with serviceable backups that you can resign at bargains; and every now and again you'll hit a home run and land a star with a late pick.

They're incredibly important to keep

And realistically you're not going to be able to trade late picks for proven vets. There would have to be a reason a team would be willing to trade a good player to us for just a late pick... That player is coming with red flags.

A 6th/7th rounder gets you a Gino Gradkowski, Nick Easton, or Terrance West type player just to use very recent examples. I'd rather draft and roll the dice on a Darren Waller or Camp than trade the pick to acquire a player of Gradkowski's caliber.

And the Jimmy Graham trade cost the Seahawks a 1st round pick, Max Unger, a proven, well above average starter, and a big chunk of salary cap space.

Now if you feel that player is the one missing piece to a title then sure it's worth it. But when you're in the business of contending every year - trades like that cripple you. Theoretically the Seahawks may have given up 3 starters just for Graham. Unger definitely, the 1st rounder which who knows could've been an all pro but also could've been a bust, and then could've used that cap space to either retain a starter (Kam Chancellor) or acquire one in FA.

Just not good business imo.

Edited September 10, 2015 by BOLDnPurPnBlacK

[usmccharles]

Don't get me started on that.

 

We've got the right receivers to develop. Lets hope that development begins Sunday.

 

I am not familar with your stance on that trade.  Most likely the same for most of us, it was a catch 22

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

the only reality i see is that whatever they are doing its working pretty darn good.

back to back SB appearances says enough.

they might even get back to it this season if everyone stays healthy.

they look better on paper then last season.

Yea they grew the foundation of this run on solid drafting and hitting on late picks.

But we're going to see now, if you don't continue that influx of young talent through the draft, overpay to retain your star players instead of having the foresight to draft replacements or bargain hunt FA, or overpay to bring in top tier FA's you just can't sustain the greatness.

I think the Seahawks are making the same mistake Ozzie did after our 1st SB win - thinking they have to keep the core together regardless of cost to win now - instead of continuing own the path that got them there in the 1st place. Letting guys leave to get overpaid, avoiding overpaying for big name FAs, and trusting your scouting team to get 80% production at 20% of the cost through draft and bargain FA acquisitions.

They had a high paid QB they just signed in Matt Flynn, but trusted their 3rd round draft pick to start over him.

Targeted lynch who was immensely talented but a bargain bc of red flags. I think Avril was another bargain signing.

They trusted late round picks with upside to play big roles.

Now it's like they've forgotten they were good at that. They waaaaayyyyy overpaid to get a one dimensional TE whose been injured and declining and who can't block for an offense that focuses on the run game.

They shelled out HUGE money to where now a majority of their cap is tied up in like 5 players (Wilson, Sherman, Thomas, Graham and Wagner). The players are seeing that the FO is desperately trying to keep the core together and are trying to take advantage of that to get paid (Kam, Bennett).

Before it was next man up with them... Browner walks, Thurmond steps up. Let him walk and Maxwell balls out.

Now they let Maxwell walk...... And sign Cary Williams? If they were going to sign a vet I would've brought back Browner or Thurmond for the same or less money - and at least you get a guy you know can play very well in your system.... But that's getting off topic.

Trade away an immensely talented young back they drafted in Christine Michael, and sign an aging and injury prone Fred Jackson to back up an aging Lynch.

I'm glad Ozzie learned his lesson the first time and it's why we're consistently contending. We may never have a dominant stretch like the Seahawks past 2, 3 including this year. But id rather consistently have a chance to make a run every year with an occasional down year once every decade; then have a dominant 3 year stretch once every 10-20 years.

I think this is the Seahawks last shot at a title for a while. They took a step back last year, and will take another this year. And then after this year with no cap room, and a lack of young talent and depth they'll come crashing back down to earth.

Hopefully they learn the lesson and after another 3-4 years of focusing on building through the draft, letting guys leave who want to get overpaid, and bargain hunting they'll build their base up again to contend again.tccccoyyju

Edited September 10, 2015 by BOLDnPurPnBlacK

[usmccharles]

Very well said and i agree^. I think seattle will hit the wall after this year and just not have any depth unless they draft very well. Since John Harbaugh and Joe have been together, we are a top 5 team every year with one down year. I would like to see what contracts were done after our first superbowl and who all was let go...

[Tru11]

Yea they grew the foundation of this run on solid drafting and hitting on late picks.

But we're going to see now, if you don't continue that influx of young talent through the draft, overpay to retain your star players instead of having the foresight to draft replacements or bargain hunt FA, or overpay to bring in top tier FA's you just can't sustain the greatness.

I think the Seahawks are making the same mistake Ozzie did after our 1st SB win - thinking they have to keep the core together regardless of cost to win now - instead of continuing own the path that got them there in the 1st place. Letting guys leave to get overpaid, avoiding overpaying for big name FAs, and trusting your scouting team to get 80% production at 20% of the cost through draft and bargain FA acquisitions.

They had a high paid QB they just signed in Matt Flynn, but trusted their 3rd round draft pick to start over him.

Targeted lynch who was immensely talented but a bargain bc of red flags. I think Avril was another bargain signing.

They trusted late round picks with upside to play big roles.

Now it's like they've forgotten they were good at that. They waaaaayyyyy overpaid to get a one dimensional TE whose been injured and declining and who can't block for an offense that focuses on the run game.

They shelled out HUGE money to where now a majority of their cap is tied up in like 5 players (Wilson, Sherman, Thomas, Graham and Wagner). The players are seeing that the FO is desperately trying to keep the core together and are trying to take advantage of that to get paid (Kam, Bennett).

Before it was next man up with them... Browner walks, Thurmond steps up. Let him walk and Maxwell balls out.

Now they let Maxwell walk...... And sign Cary Williams? If they were going to sign a vet I would've brought back Browner or Thurmond for the same or less money - and at least you get a guy you know can play very well in your system.... But that's getting off topic.

Trade away an immensely talented young back they drafted in Christine Michael, and sign an aging and injury prone Fred Jackson to back up an aging Lynch.

I'm glad Ozzie learned his lesson the first time and it's why we're consistently contending. We may never have a dominant stretch like the Seahawks past 2, 3 including this year. But id rather consistently have a chance to make a run every year with an occasional down year once every decade; then have a dominant 3 year stretch once every 10-20 years.

I think this is the Seahawks last shot at a title for a while. They took a step back last year, and will take another this year. And then after this year with no cap room, and a lack of young talent and depth they'll come crashing back down to earth.

Hopefully they learn the lesson and after another 3-4 years of focusing on building through the draft, letting guys leave who want to get overpaid, and bargain hunting they'll build their base up again to contend again.tccccoyyju

 

how did they take a step back?

they where in the SB and 1 play away from repeating lol.

 

they actualy gotten better on offensive with Jimmy graham, not to mention that rookie WR lockette.

 

jackson provides experience behind lynch.

very important cause christine and turbin where pretty underwhelming and not very reliable.

 

only question on offense is the inexperience of the o-line but wilson is used to making plays behind a bad o-line anyways and has more weapons lol.

 

i think cary willliams is a great fit for that defense.

he can actually play press and be physical knowing thomas got coverage over the top.

also with avril and bennett you dont have to cover long.

 

they will mis kam with his holdout but he will be back at some point cause he got 0 leverage since he has 3 years remaining lol.

 

the thing you might be overlooking is that the guys they signed long term are very young which in our case where old guys.

 

they have a solid foundation and just need to keep finding pieces to plug in.

 

lynch is 29 and he is the oldest guy who is in their long term plans lol.

 

they only have 7 players over 30 .

2 are the back up QBs.

1 is a P

cary Williams and blackmon are 31.

kevin Williams is the oldest guy at 35.

 

mebane and bennet are 30 , their K is 30 and everyone else is younger.

 

they have a very young team which is very unlike our SB teams..

Edited September 10, 2015 by Tru11

[jdynamite]

You choose one of two ways and the subsequent results:

1. Buy your players and get a shot or two to grab a SB (Seattle way and they almost went 2 for 2 if not for the worst offensive play call in the history of the SB).

2. Consistently draft well and have a shot at the SB just about every year.

I prefer method #2.

 

I don't really agree with the thought that Seattle bought their way into a Superbowl... Over the last 5 years, I mean they got M.Lynch in a trade with Buffalo whom at the time had Lynch, Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller in a crowded backfield and Lynch was coming off an injury that year. M.Bennett & Cliff Avril were good pick ups for them , but Bennett had one good season in Tampa before the Seahawks signed him, Avril many thought was benefited from playing near Suh...    Players they spent big bucks on were Receivers Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin and neither one of them worked out for team ...  Most of their core on both units for the first Superbowl was built through the draft... It started with their first 2 picks Okung and E.Thomas..

[1/28/01]

I don't really agree with the thought that Seattle bought their way into a Superbowl... Over the last 5 years, I mean they got M.Lynch in a trade with Buffalo whom at the time had Lynch, Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller in a crowded backfield and Lynch was coming off an injury that year. M.Bennett & Cliff Avril were good pick ups for them , but Bennett had one good season in Tampa before the Seahawks signed him, Avril many thought was benefited from playing near Suh... Players they spent big bucks on were Receivers Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin and neither one of them worked out for team ... Most of their core on both units for the first Superbowl was built through the draft... It started with their first 2 picks Okung and E.Thomas..

Yeah, already corrected and said it was the wrong wording. They are paying their guys as opposed to letting some walk and replacing them. Gonna hurt in a few years.

[BmoreBird22]

53% of the hawks roster consist of 7th round picks and UFA.

 

let that sink in lol.

 

i dont think they are in trouble at all.

 

its pretty admiring on how they do things.

It's great when your team consists of those type of players, but the key is that the Seahawks were able to stay healthy because only three of their starters on that team went underrated (one was a fullback). They had very high picks for most positions with over 50% of the starters being a round three or higher pick. They had some late round picks play (KJ Wright; fourth, Richard Sherman; fifth, Kam Chancellor; fifth, and Byron Maxwell; sixth), mostly in the secondary where they have the absolute perfect scheme and the best center fielder, but that's a different debate. The Seahawks may compose their roster of cheap players, but they start many high profile names. This will be a much bigger test this year since they'll be starting a former UDFA RT in Gillam and a former practice squad center, whose name is escaping me.

Point being, they're very fortunate they haven't sustained major injuries for a long period of time because they're very talented at their starting positions. 

[usmccharles]

Interesting topic to bring back

 

Can also look at it in the other direction to trade draft picks more.  Some of us want to trade back into the late first round to take another player, which i think would instantly change our team, better or worse though?

[Winchester]

Heard this on mike and mike awhile back, forgot to post, so while im here at work i figured i will.

 

The seahawks traded their first round pick (31) for TE Jimmy Graham, the second best TE in the league.  Instead of hoping they hit on a player that they would have drafted at that spot, they took a known dominant player at his position.  Now the drawback is obviously the amount of money it takes to do trades like this, but is it worth it? 

 

Now obviously you cant do this with your entire roster because of the salary cap, this isnt Madden, but at certain positions it seems worth it to me assuming your under the cap and can afford it.  Clearly hitting on players in the draft is preferred since you would have that player on their rookie deal for 5 years. 

 

I was trying to think of an example for our team and was having issues, so just for example: instead of drafting BP in the first round with all the unknowns, trading a first rounder for say...Emanuel Sanders, keena Allen, etc...doesnt seem all that bad, like i said, i just used them as examples.  I know everything comes down to the caproom, but if your telling me could a Fitgerald for 3-4 years, it doesnt sound too bad.  (bad examples)

 

Since we are extremely lucky to have Ozzie, we have always drafted in better grades, but im bored so give me some slack...

There are ideal scenarios where a trade obviously makes sense and g

Fills a hole that is holding a team back from a Superbowl. I would the #6 pick for Amari Cooper,Beckham,Watkins,Hopkins or even Allen Robinson in .04seconds!!

[usmccharles]

There are ideal scenarios where a trade obviously makes sense and g

Fills a hole that is holding a team back from a Superbowl. I would the #6 pick for Amari Cooper,Beckham,Watkins,Hopkins or even Allen Robinson in .04seconds!!

It can go both ways from when i orginally made that post.  Now that we are talking draft, i was merely thinking the difference between holding onto so many draft picks rather than moving up back into the 1st round.  I know this isnt madden, im not too sure what it would cost to come back into the 1st

[Tru11]

It can go both ways from when i orginally made that post.  Now that we are talking draft, i was merely thinking the difference between holding onto so many draft picks rather than moving up back into the 1st round.  I know this isnt madden, im not too sure what it would cost to come back into the 1st

 

depends how high you want to get back into.

 

from 6th to 32 is manageable.

 

from 6th to top 15 will cost a kings ransom.

 

i cant imagine what it would cost to go from 6th in the 2nd to top 10 in the first lol

[usmccharles]

depends how high you want to get back into.

 

from 6th to 32 is manageable.

 

from 6th to top 15 will cost a kings ransom.

 

i cant imagine what it would cost to go from 6th in the 2nd to top 10 in the first lol

What i meant was:

 

We take Judge Tread with the 6th pick and say around the 25th (insert name) is still there falling, what would it take to move down from the 37th (i think) back into the first...

[jdynamite]

Anyone know if the league approved the idea of being able to trade compensatory picks this year?

I'll probably google it right after this post lol

[jdynamite]

Anyone know if the league approved the idea of being able to trade compensatory picks this year?

I'll probably google it right after this post lol

Update.

Compensatory picks will be tradable starting 2017 Draft. From December 2nd 2015 article.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14274468/nfl-owners-ok-compensatory-pick-trading-2017

[Tru11]

What i meant was:

 

We take Judge Tread with the 6th pick and say around the 25th (insert name) is still there falling, what would it take to move down from the 37th (i think) back into the first...

 

at least our 3rd rounder.

 

means you wont have a pick till the 4th round.

 

could offer next years 3rd but you probably would have to add a 4th this or next year as well.

[usmccharles]

at least our 3rd rounder.

 

means you wont have a pick till the 4th round.

 

could offer next years 3rd but you probably would have to add a 4th this or next year as well.

Interesting....what do you think about doing that.  Take a guy who people are talking about falling to the late first round, like Rkim, would you give up our 2 and 3 to move back in the first? 

[Tru11]

Interesting....what do you think about doing that.  Take a guy who people are talking about falling to the late first round, like Rkim, would you give up our 2 and 3 to move back in the first? 

 

hard to say.

 

if he comes through the evaluation well then it might be worth the risk.

 

if he appears to have quite a few red flags , id probably pass or wait till he gets at an spot im more comfortable taking him.

 

also depends on the strength of the draft class though.

if his talent is that much higher then what is left then i might.

[JoeyFlex5]

our team as it is right now, draft picks are more important than theyve ever been, we just gotta hit on the early ones more often. 

 

we dont have the cap room, nor will we have the cap room anytime soon(realistically we'll probably be cap strapped for the remainder of joes tenure) to build the roster through FA, that is reserved for depth purposes and to fill holes late in the offseason when we dont feel comfortable with our current guys, we have no choice but to take bargain signings, maximize comp picks, and make the most of each draft, because getting studs on 4-5 year rookie deals is the only way we can really improve the team drastically.

[usmccharles]

hard to say.

 

if he comes through the evaluation well then it might be worth the risk.

 

if he appears to have quite a few red flags , id probably pass or wait till he gets at an spot im more comfortable taking him.

 

also depends on the strength of the draft class though.

if his talent is that much higher then what is left then i might.

I was just using him as an example.  Is there any scenario you would do it? using your own players..

[Tru11]

I was just using him as an example.  Is there any scenario you would do it? using your own players..

 

goes for everybody what i said lol.

 

really depends on the combine , individual work outs and the intervieuw.

 

if i use flex latest mock id say if a guy like elliot if he drops that far , or lawson or ragland is still around in 20s , id consider go and grab them.

this is if we take treadwell.

 

if not dotson and coleman are guys id target as well if they are there in the 20 s.

leonard floyd maybe.

 

heck any of the top CBs id do it as well.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Tru11

[usmccharles]

goes for everybody what i said lol.

really depends on the combine , individual work outs and the intervieuw.

if i use flex latest mock id say if a guy like elliot if he drops that far , or lawson or ragland is still around in 20s , id consider go and grab them.

this is if we take treadwell.

if not dotson and coleman are guys id target as well if they are there in the 20 s.

leonard floyd maybe.

heck any of the top CBs id do it as well.

yea I expect the combine to shake things up.

[Purple Punishment]

I would've given up a 5th rounder for Brandon Marshall any day

[Winchester]

It can go both ways from when i orginally made that post. Now that we are talking draft, i was merely thinking the difference between holding onto so many draft picks rather than moving up back into the 1st round. I know this isnt madden, im not too sure what it would cost to come back into the 1st

The trade really makes sense when the player is on his rookie deal. I would trade the #6 pick and even a #3 next year for Allen Robinson. Busy at work today so I can't go in the kinda detail I would like. But free agency does exist today. And it as well as trades has to be considered as part of your talent pool or else the ravens are at a disadvantage because rivals are using it to draw talent. It is not like before free agency when teams build only through the draft. A team has to make calculated signings and trades to win a championship. And I am not only referring to cheap role players and players beyond their prime. But a true splash signing sometimes.(Not $100mil of course for an overrated player like Suh.) Or a significant draft pick and or player trade. And can not always look for cheapest trades!! Givens was a feeble attempt at finding a playmaker!! And a team parting ways with a young left tackle for late round picks should of been a red flag about Monroe. And if Ozzie stopped paying big money to players like Suggs until he is 36,or paying players on injury reserve there would be money to sign a young stud once in a while.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Winchester

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

Draft picks are still the most valuable commodity in the NFL. 9/10 drafting a player is much better than signing a FA or trading. You get to develop that player to fit your system or mold. If you hit, you're going to get 3-5 years of the player performing at a higher level than what their pay dictates. 

 

You can afford many more top tier players if they're draft picks on their rookie deal bc of the pay. 

 

This is the way, and only way to build a team. 

 

The only exception is when you've got a core team built thats ready to contend, and you need that one or two pieces to get over the top. In that instance, you dont have the chance to bank on a pick contributing year 1 or time for them to develop. In that case, id rather trade or sign the vet who you know can come in and do what you need a la Anquan Boldin or Shannon Sharpe.