My Annual 2015 Predictions and Final AFC North Standings

[K-Dog]

Why are we talking about Rice and Boller in here all of a sudden? It is almost 2016, move on

You know its been a REALLY bad season when...

[usmccharles]

Why are we talking about Rice and Boller in here all of a sudden? It is almost 2016, move on

considering he uses articles from 2013 to prove his points... He might be stuck in that time frame.

[wizard1]

You do understand that number doesn't take into account any of the normal off season transactions that every team does, including roster cuts, retirements, trades, extensions, restructures, draft picks, tenders, etc. Correct?

That $4M figure will shift in different directions dramatically in the next 6 months

 

It will not shift dramatically. There are no retirements unless you include Pitta who actually is a huge dead money hit, there will be no trades if it includes an additional hit to our cap. Roster cuts vs signing draft picks will be pretty much a wash. Any re-signing of our UFA's will come directly out of our cap since they technically don't have a 2016 salary with any team. If you think big money is going to magically appear you are sadly mistaken. Don't listen to usmccharles-that dude don't know jack about our salary cap .

[wizard1]

yea it makes me sick to my stomach that he was preaching all that stuff in schools then that happens.

Sideline, look at the top ten teams on that link you posted with all the salary cap space, notice anything outside of Cincinnati? They all have been losing teams for years. Cincinnati has drafted amazing lately.

 Thanks for making my point for me bruddah!

[rmcjacket23]

It will not shift dramatically. There are no retirements unless you include Pitta who actually is a huge dead money hit, there will be no trades if it includes an additional hit to our cap. Roster cuts vs signing draft picks will be pretty much a wash. Any re-signing of our UFA's will come directly out of our cap since they technically don't have a 2016 salary with any team. If you think big money is going to magically appear you are sadly mistaken. Don't listen to usmccharles-that dude don't know jack about our salary cap .

1. Draft picks and roster cuts won't wash each other out...not even close. You're looking at maybe $7-8 million for draft picks and I guarantee we cut more than that. Pitta and Steve Smith retiring alone pay for about half of that and that's before cutting veterans.

2. The biggest move will likely come from a Flacco extension, which has the ability to create $5-10 million in cap space.

By most accounts from people that actually study this, after cuts, tenders and extensions and draft pick allocation, could be between $10-15 million. Not a huge number by any stretch, but the current $4 million dollar figure is largely meaningless.

[wizard1]

1. Draft picks and roster cuts won't wash each other out...not even close. You're looking at maybe $7-8 million for draft picks and I guarantee we cut more than that. Pitta and Steve Smith retiring alone pay for about half of that and that's before cutting veterans.

2. The biggest move will likely come from a Flacco extension, which has the ability to create $5-10 million in cap space.

By most accounts from people that actually study this, after cuts, tenders and extensions and draft pick allocation, could be between $10-15 million. Not a huge number by any stretch, but the current $4 million dollar figure is largely meaningless.

 

No way!! Most of that is ridiculous. We won't see 5-10 mil from a Flacco extension . 2-4 mil tops and thats if he even agrees to one but if he does whatever cap room it does give us wont free-up until 2017. No way Pitta retires-thats like throwing away 10 mil. I guarantee Pitta will not retire. Steve Smith is not going out on a stretcher he will be back in 2016 however he will in all likelihood be traded to the Panthers..

 

IMO you have no idea what you are talking about. There is absolutely no way we end up with 15 mil in cap space after all is said and done. I am predicting 5-7 mil tops and that's being generous.

[rmcjacket23]

No way!! Most of that is ridiculous. We won't see 5-10 mil from a Flacco extension . 2-4 mil tops and thats if he even agrees to one but if he does whatever cap room it does give us wont free-up until 2017. No way Pitta retires-thats like throwing away 10 mil. I guarantee Pitta will not retire. Steve Smith is not going out on a stretcher he will be back in 2016 however he will in all likelihood be traded to the Panthers..

IMO you have no idea what you are talking about. There is absolutely no way we end up with 15 mil in cap space after all is said and done. I am predicting 5-7 mil tops and that's being generous.

1. You're completely wrong on the Flacco deal not helping until 2017... what is your basis for that?

2. It really doesn't matter if Pitta retires or not, and where you got $10m from I have no idea but it's wrong. He's due a non guaranteed $5m next season and he can't get a doctor to clear him right now. He's heading for a release.

3. Plenty of other roster cuts to be made to free up space. This is nothing new.

[wizard1]

1. You're completely wrong on the Flacco deal not helping until 2017... what is your basis for that?

2. It really doesn't matter if Pitta retires or not, and where you got $10m from I have no idea but it's wrong. He's due a non guaranteed $5m next season and he can't get a doctor to clear him right now. He's heading for a release.

3. Plenty of other roster cuts to be made to free up space. This is nothing new.

Let's see if I got this right, 

1st. Flacco is due basically 29 mil in 2016 and you think he is going to restructure his deal so he takes about 10 mil less. Haha that's hilarious. I'm sure he is happy you aren't negotiating for him.

 

2nd. If  Pitta doesn't retire and we release him that creates about 7 mil in dead cap space that we have to pay him- cut and dried.

          

 We have more than 1/3 rd of our salary cap tied up in a few players. Flacco/Yanda/Webb/Pitta/Suggs and thats not magically going to disappear.

Edited December 20, 2015 by wizard1

[beanfigger]

Let's see if I got this right,

1st flacco is due basically 29 mil in 2016 and you think he is going to restructure his deal so he takes about 10 mil less. Haha that's hilarious. I'm sure he is happy you aren't negotiating for him.

r.

I don't think you understand how these things work. Cap hits and amount the player receives in the year are not the same number. Flacco will likely increase the amount he makes next year and still lower his cap hit. It'll be a bonus that will be spread across an extension. Now, I'm not agreeing with anyone who thinks it will be lowered by $10M. I think it'll be more like 5-8, but still a decent boost.

[wizard1]

I don't think you understand how these things work. Cap hits and amount the player receives in the year are not the same number. Flacco will likely increase the amount he makes next year and still lower his cap hit. It'll be a bonus that will be spread across an extension. Now, I'm not agreeing with anyone who thinks it will be lowered by $10M. I think it'll be more like 5-8, but still a decent boost.

 I completely understand how things work and Flacco is not going to restructure a deal that gives him 8 mil less on any end of a new contact.. No freaking way that happens. 

 

But the problem is negotiating a restructure and you are assuming Flacco is amenable at all to a restructure. IMO there is no good reason for Flacco to agree to a restructure. His injury throws a monkey wrench into any negotiating.

[wizard1]

 I completely understand how things work and Flacco is not going to restructure a deal that gives him 8 mil less on any end of a new contact.. No freaking way that happens. 

 

But the problem is negotiating a restructure and you are assuming Flacco is amenable at all to a restructure. IMO there is no good reason for Flacco to agree to a restructure. His injury throws a monkey wrench into any negotiating.

 

Besides this is all completely off topic and the thread is about my predictions for this season. I have seen or heard you predict one thing that has come true!

[rmcjacket23]

I completely understand how things work and Flacco is not going to restructure a deal that gives him 8 mil less on any end of a new contact.. No freaking way that happens.

But the problem is negotiating a restructure and you are assuming Flacco is amenable at all to a restructure. IMO there is no good reason for Flacco to agree to a restructure. His injury throws a monkey wrench into any negotiating.

I think I see the problem now. You think cap hit is the same as what a player is getting paid. That's incorrect.

1. Joe is making $18 million next season. An extension with a large signing bonus, see 2013, gives Joe more money up front and spreads out his cap hit. It's how Joe himself makes $30 million in 2013 with a cap number under $7 million

2. The dead money you speak of regarding Pitta is already included in the current year cap figure. It doesn't increase the salary cap. The cap savings is $600K, meaning he will cost $6.6 million if he's cut, traded, or retires, and he'll cost $7.2 million if he's on the roster.

There's plenty of articles available on this stuff that I suggest you read before continuing to post misinformed information. RSR has a great article on how fans misunderstand dead money and why it's largely irrelevant to decision making, since it's a fixed cost.

[usmccharles]

Thanks for making my point for me bruddah!

I was merely pointing out that just because you have cap room doesn't mean it translates to winning. The same teams have been in the top forever... When is the last one out of that top ten won anything... I think there is only 3 teams in that top 15 that are relevant. You should really listen to what Jacket it is saying, he's just trying to inform you, but if you don't want to learn how it works, no one can help you and no point of taking it further

[PurpleCity5]

Dead money is not a big deal, its the cap savings that we will care about. I'm not sure how much we will get from Joe's new deal(If he agree's that is), but I do think we'll be able to squeeze out some money with cuts and what not. I think our cap situation will get much better as the years progress.

Edited December 20, 2015 by PurpleCity5

[January J]

Dead money is not a big deal, its the cap savings that we will care about. I'm not sure how much we will get from Joe's new deal(If he agree's that is), but I do think we'll be able to squeeze out some money with cuts and what not. I think our cap situation will get much better as the years progress.

if I were to guess I think we will be able to stretch it to around 9 million once all is said and done.

[usmccharles]

it really has.. you actually did the opposite of make his point. He seems to be a little lost right now and in over his head.

Yea, i didnt really get how he came up with that response.  But i think we have concluded he wont listen to facts and how the cap works.  I will gladly listen to Jacket about everything, ive learned a lot from his post

[beanfigger]

Besides this is all completely off topic and the thread is about my predictions for this season. I have seen or heard you predict one thing that has come true!

You, too.

[wizard1]

Yea, i didnt really get how he came up with that response.  But i think we have concluded he wont listen to facts and how the cap works.  I will gladly listen to Jacket about everything, ive learned a lot from his post

 

  just another lucky guess huh?

[rmcjacket23]

just another lucky guess huh?

Maybe you'll be luckier next time with your cap analysis...

[atomicfront]

I don't think you understand how these things work. Cap hits and amount the player receives in the year are not the same number. Flacco will likely increase the amount he makes next year and still lower his cap hit. It'll be a bonus that will be spread across an extension. Now, I'm not agreeing with anyone who thinks it will be lowered by $10M. I think it'll be more like 5-8, but still a decent boost.

 

It is just kicking the can down the road.  I would rather just give up on next year and release guys like Monroe and Pitta and not re-negotiate Flacco.  Get as much money off the books for 2017.  Have another bad season in 2016 like we will either way.  

[wizard1]

It is just kicking the can down the road.  I would rather just give up on next year and release guys like Monroe and Pitta and not re-negotiate Flacco.  Get as much money off the books for 2017.  Have another bad season in 2016 like we will either way.  

 Good point and most definitely looking that way in 2016. With the little money we have we will not be able to keep up with some of the really talented AFC teams. Going to be tough to get back into that top tier of talent. The good news is with the Chargers winning we now moved up to the 3rd pick in the draft. I really don't see the Browns or the Titans drafting Bosa which means we may get first shot at him.

[usmccharles]

  just another lucky guess huh?

 

I honestly dont know what guess your talking about...

Maybe you'll be luckier next time with your cap analysis...

 

i literally lol'd at that

It is just kicking the can down the road.  I would rather just give up on next year and release guys like Monroe and Pitta and not re-negotiate Flacco.  Get as much money off the books for 2017.  Have another bad season in 2016 like we will either way.  

wow...we havent even went into the offseason and we have fans saying this.  Im glad your ok with a loser mentaility...however i will never be and i think most fans on here would agree.  I bet you were one of the "lets tank" guys huh

[1/28/01]

2 good guesses in a row, good work. You're still clueless when it comes to the cap and player salaries.

[wizard1]

2 good guesses.? Haha you are quite hilarious. I suggest you revisit the beginning of this thread. You remember way way back in preseason when you were spouting off about how great a football team we were going to be. Take a look at my predictions for the final AFC North standings.

 

You know what I want I want for Christmas. I want you to be right about just one thing.! and also for you to stop personally bashing me.

[wizard1]

I honestly dont know what guess your talking about...

 

i literally lol'd at that

wow...we havent even went into the offseason and we have fans saying this.  Im glad your ok with a loser mentaility...however i will never be and i think most fans on here would agree.  I bet you were one of the "lets tank" guys huh

 

 

Maybe you'll be luckier next time with your cap analysis...

 

Well let's see how right I am. My prediction of $5-7 mil of cap space in 2016 will be a correct one. I haven't heard much from you except a continuous litany of  boorish personal attacks which is actually quite amusing at times.. I used to sit in the lunchroom and do the same things to some of the nerdy kids at school. I think I gave that up when I graduated 6th grade.

[1/28/01]

2 good guesses.? Haha you are quite hilarious. I suggest you revisit the beginning of this thread. You remember way way back in preseason when you were spouting off about how great a football team we were going to be. Take a look at my predictions for the final AFC North standings.

 

You know what I want I want for Christmas. I want you to be right about just one thing.! and also for you to stop personally bashing me.

Nah, I'm good. I'll keep calling your posts out when they're mostly as ridiculous as they are. It's fun and I like it.

 

I love Wizards posts. Always have. Its like when my 3 year old makes an attempt to search for something on YouTube.

I still stand behind this.

[DenverRaven]

The self-victimization is coming on a little strong here. Right or wrong, it doesn't mean much in the end. The people running this team have way more knowledge and information to make critical decisions than anyone posting here.

[Moderator 3]

The way people are behaving in this thread is shameful. I don't care who respects who (or not), ACT respectful.