My Annual 2015 Predictions and Final AFC North Standings

[GrimCoconut]

I love some of these John Madden comments here.

[usmccharles]

cap issues? Do you realize how much dead money comes off the books next year along with the restructure of joes contract? We actually will be in pretty good shape. And poor draft selections? I think that would be a matter of opinion, Ozzie is and always will be one of the best. We lost a string of games by less than a touchdown with a chance to win on the last drive in every single one- and we had several injuries to key players. Combine that with tough scheduling and some fluke plays..thats not a decline that's just a lot of bad luck. We're not even in the lower echelon of talent right now regardless of our record. Every team in the league knows we're not a 2-6 team. We will be right back in the mix next year( if not this year) and you will fade away and eventually disappear .

Man I sound like a broken record. I know I'm wasting my time I couldn't help myself.

Join the club brother. Some people just think Oz is garbage, Harbaugh should be gone, Joe needs to be cut, I don't know how these posters are actually a fan of the Ravens. Maybe they are hired by the steelers.... There about 3 or so guys on here that think we are garbage. But that mindset must really suck for other aspects of life.

[52520Andrew]

I love some of these John Madden comments here.

Yeah there are some obvious statements being said

[Cillmatic]

I love some of these John Madden comments here.

We're probably gonna win this and screw ourselves out of a high pick by the end of the season.

[rmcjacket23]

cap issues? Do you realize how much dead money comes off the books next year along with the restructure of joes contract? We actually will be in pretty good shape. And poor draft selections? I think that would be a matter of opinion, Ozzie is and always will be one of the best. We lost a string of games by less than a touchdown with a chance to win on the last drive in every single one- and we had several injuries to key players. Combine that with tough scheduling and some fluke plays..thats not a decline that's just a lot of bad luck. We're not even in the lower echelon of talent right now regardless of our record. Every team in the league knows we're not a 2-6 team. We will be right back in the mix next year( if not this year) and you will fade away and eventually disappear .

Man I sound like a broken record. I know I'm wasting my time I couldn't help myself.

While I agree we're certainly not going to be in a long term rut, lets make sure that we understand that we likely are NOT going to be in that great a salary cap position.

 

RSR outlines this pretty well, but basically, after tending our RFA/ERFAs and allotting space for draft picks and incentive inclusions/cap increases, we are basically at scratch (no cap space) heading into 2016. Sure, there will be cuts, restructures/extensions, etc. that can free up cap space, but many of them are wildcards and lot of them (including Flacco's deal), in my opinion, won't be as big of cap savings as people think. That is also not including extensions we give to our own players.

 

Basically, when its all said and done, $20M in cap space would essentially be our ceiling, with it likely falling in the $10-15M range. A decent amount no doubt, but still likely to be in the bottom third of the league AND we will be competing against teams with 2 or 3 times that amount.

 

While a lot of fans like to bring up the "dead money comes off the books" logic, it doesn't really matter, because the dead money coming off has no impact on the amount of spending we currently have on the books. Its not factored in to the 2016 salary cap figures we currently have. 

[January J]

While I agree we're certainly not going to be in a long term rut, lets make sure that we understand that we likely are NOT going to be in that great a salary cap position.

 

RSR outlines this pretty well, but basically, after tending our RFA/ERFAs and allotting space for draft picks and incentive inclusions/cap increases, we are basically at scratch (no cap space) heading into 2016. Sure, there will be cuts, restructures/extensions, etc. that can free up cap space, but many of them are wildcards and lot of them (including Flacco's deal), in my opinion, won't be as big of cap savings as people think. That is also not including extensions we give to our own players.

 

Basically, when its all said and done, $20M in cap space would essentially be our ceiling, with it likely falling in the $10-15M range. A decent amount no doubt, but still likely to be in the bottom third of the league AND we will be competing against teams with 2 or 3 times that amount.

 

While a lot of fans like to bring up the "dead money comes off the books" logic, it doesn't really matter, because the dead money coming off has no impact on the amount of spending we currently have on the books. Its not factored in to the 2016 salary cap figures we currently have.

sure, but we're not going to be in "cap hell" like some fans seem to think. And I'm sure the cap limit will also be increased a bit again as well.

[wizard1]

While I agree we're certainly not going to be in a long term rut, lets make sure that we understand that we likely are NOT going to be in that great a salary cap position.

 

RSR outlines this pretty well, but basically, after tending our RFA/ERFAs and allotting space for draft picks and incentive inclusions/cap increases, we are basically at scratch (no cap space) heading into 2016. Sure, there will be cuts, restructures/extensions, etc. that can free up cap space, but many of them are wildcards and lot of them (including Flacco's deal), in my opinion, won't be as big of cap savings as people think. That is also not including extensions we give to our own players.

 

Basically, when its all said and done, $20M in cap space would essentially be our ceiling, with it likely falling in the $10-15M range. A decent amount no doubt, but still likely to be in the bottom third of the league AND we will be competing against teams with 2 or 3 times that amount.

 

While a lot of fans like to bring up the "dead money comes off the books" logic, it doesn't really matter, because the dead money coming off has no impact on the amount of spending we currently have on the books. Its not factored in to the 2016 salary cap figures we currently have. 

 

My point exactly. We are in a bit of a salary cap twilight zone with really no end in sight for having the kind of space we need to bring in some competitive players. Which means we will remain stuck with sub-par talent and older guys at the end of their careers. When you look at the teams in the mix right now and compare their talent against their current salary cap space you see that we are in a long term bind with no real solutions other than to remain in a kind of holding pattern which will not work.

[wizard1]

sure, but we're not going to be in "cap hell" like some fans seem to think. And I'm sure the cap limit will also be increased a bit again as well.

 

Dude I don't want to beat a dead horse but we are exactly in "cap hell"

[wizard1]

For instance-the Bengals have $28 mil in cap space, Patriots have $14 mil , the Broncos $10 mil . Even the Bills, Jets, Dolphins have way more cap room than we do. If we don't have the $$$ to bring in big named players then we are stuck with the drippings and that my friends is "Cap-Hell".

[January J]

Dude I don't want to beat a dead horse but we are exactly in "cap hell"

just because we spend to the cap doesn't mean we are in cap hell. We will release who we have to release and do what we have to do. It's not like our hands are going to be tied. No we're not better off than other teams who are able to splurge ( and still get no results) but in no way are we in cap hell. I don't know what world your living in but you have some pretty radical views.

[January J]

My point exactly. We are in a bit of a salary cap twilight zone with really no end in sight for having the kind of space we need to bring in some competitive players. Which means we will remain stuck with sub-par talent and older guys at the end of their careers. When you look at the teams in the mix right now and compare their talent against their current salary cap space you see that we are in a long term bind with no real solutions other than to remain in a kind of holding pattern which will not work.

that wasn't your point exactly. You stated we would be in a long term rut.

Jotting some of the numbers down we will be just fine. Think about it.

- joes restructure. No this won't make a huge difference but it will certainly help.

- dead money off of books -Ray rice etc.

-release pitta/ or he retires

- SSS retires

-release K.O

-release Kendrick Lewis and Webb

- release Marlon brown and the rest of the dead weight.

- franchise tucker

- already signed yanda

-increase of salary cap

That's just off the top of my head. All things considered I think we wil have some room to play with. We will have some holes to fill for sure- but a good draft position and hopefully getting more from some of the guys currently on the team like Elam, Terrence brooks etc. and we will be in good shape. A veteran FA receiver and a marquee pass rusher/ corner via the draft and we'll be right back in the mix next year.

[rmcjacket23]

that wasn't your point exactly. You stated we would be in a long term rut.

Jotting some of the numbers down we will be just fine. Think about it.

- joes restructure. No this won't make a huge difference but it will certainly help.

- dead money off of books -Ray rice etc.

-release pitta/ or he retires

- SSS retires

-release K.O

-release Kendrick Lewis and Webb

- release Marlon brown and the rest of the dead weight.

- franchise tucker

- already signed yanda

-increase of salary cap

That's just off the top of my head. All things considered I think we wil have some room to play with. We will have some holes to fill for sure- but a good draft position and hopefully getting more from some of the guys currently on the team like Elam, Terrence brooks etc. and we will be in good shape. A veteran FA receiver and a marquee pass rusher/ corner via the draft and we'll be right back in the mix next year.

Well, lets break that down...

 

1. Yes, the Flacco extension will help. By how much it helps nobody knows, but my guess is it will create between $8-10M in cap space. Its also possible they don't reach an extension at all.

 

2. The dead money off the books add absolutely $0 in cap space, since its not accounted for in our current cap figure anyway. Irrelevant to keep discussing it... has absolutely no bearing on the 2016 cap situation.

 

3. Release/retirement of Pitta frees up a monumental $600K in cap space. Creates $6.6M in dead money.

 

4. A retirement from SSS, which is far from a given and quite frankly shouldn't be expected at this point, frees up $3M in cap space with roughly $1.2M in dead money created.

 

5. We can't release KO because he doesn't have a contract with us in 2016. This has no impact on the salary cap... there's no cap savings created.

 

6. Releasing Kendrick Lewis creates roughly $1M in cap savings, with roughly $1M in dead money created.

 

7. Releasing Webb would create $3.5M in cap savings with $6M in dead money created.

 

8. We can't cut either Marlon Brown either, since he's an RFA in 2016. We create no cap savings by cutting him. There are other cuts that can be made, such as Chris Canty, but there isn't a ton of cap savings to be had from cutting many of these guys.

 

So in summary, from just the cuts you suggested, we'd probably free up (conservatively) about $15M in cap space, which is basically all we would have to play with. That would certainly put us in the bottom third in the league in cap space, and if I'm correct, I believe at the start of FA last season we were in the $10-15M range with cap space, so we're basically in the same spot roughly as last season.

 

And for what its worth, with all of this useless fascination with dead money and how we have too much of it, the cuts you suggested above would create at least $15M in dead money for 2016. 

[rmcjacket23]

For instance-the Bengals have $28 mil in cap space, Patriots have $14 mil , the Broncos $10 mil . Even the Bills, Jets, Dolphins have way more cap room than we do. If we don't have the $$$ to bring in big named players then we are stuck with the drippings and that my friends is "Cap-Hell".

Not sure where you got some of your figures from, but they are wrong.

 

1. The Dolphins and Bills rank 30th and 31st in cap space projected for 2016. Dolphins have arguably one of the two worst salary cap situations in football in 2016... they have a projected $3.2M in cap space with only 37 of the 51 players accounted for in that number. They're royally screwed and will be releasing, cutting, not-resigning people like flies this offseason.

 

The Bills are projected to be basically right at the cap currently for 2016, and they have only 43 of 51 players accounted for in that number. They, too, will have some difficult choices to make.

 

2. The Patriots rank just ahead of the Bills in cap space, though they're in a little bit better of a spot. They won't have much to spend. For the record, as currently projected, all four AFC East teams are projected to be in the bottom third in the league in cap space. None of them are projected to have over $10M as of now.

 

3. The Broncos have a projected $17.5M in cap space, though they have several key FAs they need to resign, including Von Miller, who will cost a pretty penny either via the franchise tag or via a long term extension.

 

4. The Bengals will have plenty of cap space to play with, however they never spend anywhere near the cap, since their owner is cost stingy and has less interest in winning games than he does making a ton of money. They're not a very profitable franchise, so he annually rolls over $20M in cap space so that his profits increase.

[January J]

Well, lets break that down...

 

1. Yes, the Flacco extension will help. By how much it helps nobody knows, but my guess is it will create between $8-10M in cap space. Its also possible they don't reach an extension at all.

 

2. The dead money off the books add absolutely $0 in cap space, since its not accounted for in our current cap figure anyway. Irrelevant to keep discussing it... has absolutely no bearing on the 2016 cap situation.

 

3. Release/retirement of Pitta frees up a monumental $600K in cap space. Creates $6.6M in dead money.

 

4. A retirement from SSS, which is far from a given and quite frankly shouldn't be expected at this point, frees up $3M in cap space with roughly $1.2M in dead money created.

 

5. We can't release KO because he doesn't have a contract with us in 2016. This has no impact on the salary cap... there's no cap savings created.

 

6. Releasing Kendrick Lewis creates roughly $1M in cap savings, with roughly $1M in dead money created.

 

7. Releasing Webb would create $3.5M in cap savings with $6M in dead money created.

 

8. We can't cut either Marlon Brown either, since he's an RFA in 2016. We create no cap savings by cutting him. There are other cuts that can be made, such as Chris Canty, but there isn't a ton of cap savings to be had from cutting many of these guys.

 

So in summary, from just the cuts you suggested, we'd probably free up (conservatively) about $15M in cap space, which is basically all we would have to play with. That would certainly put us in the bottom third in the league in cap space, and if I'm correct, I believe at the start of FA last season we were in the $10-15M range with cap space, so we're basically in the same spot roughly as last season.

 

And for what its worth, with all of this useless fascination with dead money and how we have too much of it, the cuts you suggested above would create at least $15M in dead money for 2016.

that's good to know. Interesting that a player retiring still results in dead money. I would think if they retired the contract would be null and void.

[beanfigger]

that's good to know. Interesting that a player retiring still results in dead money. I would think if they retired the contract would be null and void.

The dead money is from any bonuses and guarantees that we have already paid out to the player but that the franchise has not figured into their cap, yet. When a player signs a contract and gets a signing bonus, they get that money upfront, but the bonus is spread out over the remaining years of the contract so the team doesn't have to get hit by the whole thing at once. Once the player leaves the team (via trade, release, or retirement), the rest of the bonus that was already paid out results in a cap hit for the next season for the team. Basically, we would have the hit whether they play or not because we already paid it out. The only way dead money actually increases what we would have in terms of the cap hit is if the player has more than one year left on the contract, meaning all the dead money for all those years gets added to the current league year on the team's cap.

Basically, in jacket's breakdown above, we aren't paying more money for the players we cut or who retire. We still save the amounts he stated. We just have some of what their hit would've been on our books with or without them.

Edited November 14, 2015 by beanfigger

[Willbacker]

that's good to know. Interesting that a player retiring still results in dead money. I would think if they retired the contract would be null and void.

 

You would think huh especially if it was voluntarily like it would be in SSS's case. I know sometimes teams go after partial signing bonus money(Chris Borland for instance) and then I do think that portion comes off the books but I don't see the Ravens going after this money. SSS is going to play next year anyway imo. The Pitta situation you would think there'd be some sort of paycut(like with Webb) but it wouldn't be a good business decision for Pitta but it could get him cut and he could possibly lose out since I don't see any team signing him above vet minimum if at all. Webb is interesting but I would still like to see a transformation to FS with a full amount of training camp to convert and learn the curves. There have been so many players that extended careers that have done this and I can see Webb being a ballhawk. Kendrick Lewis is gone in my eyes. He's terrible. Anyways there will be some dead money on the books as it is with all teams just hopefully we will not be leading the NFL in this category. lol.

[rmcjacket23]

You would think huh especially if it was voluntarily like it would be in SSS's case. I know sometimes teams go after partial signing bonus money(Chris Borland for instance) and then I do think that portion comes off the books but I don't see the Ravens going after this money. SSS is going to play next year anyway imo. The Pitta situation you would think there'd be some sort of paycut(like with Webb) but it wouldn't be a good business decision for Pitta but it could get him cut and he could possibly lose out since I don't see any team signing him above vet minimum if at all. Webb is interesting but I would still like to see a transformation to FS with a full amount of training camp to convert and learn the curves. There have been so many players that extended careers that have done this and I can see Webb being a ballhawk. Kendrick Lewis is gone in my eyes. He's terrible. Anyways there will be some dead money on the books as it is with all teams just hopefully we will not be leading the NFL in this category. lol.

Typically teams only have a shot at recouping signing bonus money if there's a Aaron Hernandez/Ray Rice type incident, and even that its far from guaranteed you'd get anything back.

 

I think the Borland situation was very rare in that I believe he offered to give some of the signing bonus money back, though if I recall his signing bonus was very small.

 

There's a zero percent chance the Ravens go after SSS or Pitta's signing bonus money if they retire. Frankly, it just makes the organization look bad at that point.

[wizard1]

Not sure where you got some of your figures from, but they are wrong.

 

1. The Dolphins and Bills rank 30th and 31st in cap space projected for 2016. Dolphins have arguably one of the two worst salary cap situations in football in 2016... they have a projected $3.2M in cap space with only 37 of the 51 players accounted for in that number. They're royally screwed and will be releasing, cutting, not-resigning people like flies this offseason.

 

The Bills are projected to be basically right at the cap currently for 2016, and they have only 43 of 51 players accounted for in that number. They, too, will have some difficult choices to make.

 

2. The Patriots rank just ahead of the Bills in cap space, though they're in a little bit better of a spot. They won't have much to spend. For the record, as currently projected, all four AFC East teams are projected to be in the bottom third in the league in cap space. None of them are projected to have over $10M as of now.

 

3. The Broncos have a projected $17.5M in cap space, though they have several key FAs they need to resign, including Von Miller, who will cost a pretty penny either via the franchise tag or via a long term extension.

 

4. The Bengals will have plenty of cap space to play with, however they never spend anywhere near the cap, since their owner is cost stingy and has less interest in winning games than he does making a ton of money. They're not a very profitable franchise, so he annually rolls over $20M in cap space so that his profits increase.

 

My figures are not wrong. You should do some research and find out what the real deal is and you can start with this link.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000154634/article/remaining-salarycap-space-for-each-nfl-team

 

After that look at what we are paying out next year and you will discover the dismal news. At best we will have $15 mil in cap space. With all our current problems who could we bring in for basically $15 mil that's gonna fix it?

[52520Andrew]

My figures are not wrong. You should do some research and find out what the real deal is and you can start with this link.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000154634/article/remaining-salarycap-space-for-each-nfl-team

After that look at what we are paying out next year and you will discover the dismal news. At best we will have $15 mil in cap space. With all our current problems who could we bring in for basically $15 mil that's gonna fix it?

Pretty sure it says that article was published in 2013...

[rmcjacket23]

My figures are not wrong. You should do some research and find out what the real deal is and you can start with this link.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000154634/article/remaining-salarycap-space-for-each-nfl-team

 

After that look at what we are paying out next year and you will discover the dismal news. At best we will have $15 mil in cap space. With all our current problems who could we bring in for basically $15 mil that's gonna fix it?

LOL, clearly you didn't read the article very closely. Please take note of the published date of the article you are referencing... its from over two years ago.

 

Below is where you should be pulling your information from:

 

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

[Moderator 3]

Tweeeeeet! 15 yards for piling on.

[beanfigger]

My figures are not wrong. You should do some research and find out what the real deal is and you can start with this link.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000154634/article/remaining-salarycap-space-for-each-nfl-team

After that look at what we are paying out next year and you will discover the dismal news. At best we will have $15 mil in cap space. With all our current problems who could we bring in for basically $15 mil that's gonna fix it?

So you're a time traveler now?

[January J]

My figures are not wrong. You should do some research and find out what the real deal is and you can start with this link.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000154634/article/remaining-salarycap-space-for-each-nfl-team

 

After that look at what we are paying out next year and you will discover the dismal news. At best we will have $15 mil in cap space. With all our current problems who could we bring in for basically $15 mil that's gonna fix it?

your figures are a bit outdated.

still not sure how you consider that cap hell. And we don't have that many problems to fix- pass rusher, safety/cb ,receiver. thats about it. And A few of those can be addressed in the draft. Then we just need to get healthy.

[usmccharles]

Guess he gave up... Don't blame him. Our cap situation isn't the best but we definitely aren't in cap hell

[arnie_uk]

Guess he gave up... Don't blame him. Our cap situation isn't the best but we definitely aren't in cap hell

if you actually look at Brian mcfarlands workings on RSR, we have very little cap space when it will be all said and done, unless joe does something

[usmccharles]

if you actually look at Brian mcfarlands workings on RSR, we have very little cap space when it will be all said and done, unless joe does something

We still arent sure about what cuts will be made, i expect us to be in the same boat as every year, we wont have big spending money thats for sure

[rmcjacket23]

After careful research based on certain scientfic priciples and known facts, I have formulated my somewhat famous and usually amazing predictions for the AFC North and the 2015 season and they are as follows, The Ravens are in a sharp decline, Flacco has no real deep threat. I believe Perriman will end up being an injury-prone washout. Our secondary is weak and good back-up personnel is non-exsistent. Our defensive line is pourous without Nagta and we don't have enough good healthy defensive line players for the shuffle in and out theory to be affective. We remain with excellent linebackers and a strong offensive line if they can stay healthy. Based on this the Ravens will finish 3rd in the AFC North behind the dreaded Bengals and Steelers with the Bengals winning the division. Here is how I believe our schedule will play out.

 

Week 1 at Denver will be a loss

Week 2 at Oakland will be a win.

Week 3 Home Opener with Cincinnati will be a loss.

Week 4 At Pittsburgh will be a loss.

Week 5 Cleveland at home will be a win.

Week 6 At Niners will be a loss.

Week 7 at Phoenix will be a loss.

Week 8 San Diego at home will be a loss.

Week 9 Bye

Week 10 Jacksonville at home will be a win.

Week 11 St. Louis at home will be a win.

Week 12 at Cleveland will be a loss.

Week 13 at Miami will be a loss.

Week 14 Seattle at home will be a loss.

Week 15 Kansas City at home will be a loss.

Week 16 Pittsburgh at home will be a win.

Week 17  at Cincinnati will be a loss.

 

There you have it sports fans We have a down year and finish at 5 and 11. Cincinatti wins the division at 12 and 4. Pittsburgh finishes at 10 and 6 and does not get a wild card. Cleveland is only able to go 3 and 13.

 

The sleeper team in the AFC will be the Buffalo Bills who will go to the Super Bowl on the strength of the amazing transformation of Tyrod Taylor.

 

 Call me a clairvoyant or genius if you like but most people just call me Wizard!

Kind of funny actually. Technically, 5-11 is a good projection based on what we've seen so far, so he may actually be right in that regard.

 

However, he unfortunately went out of his way to make game by game predictions, and so far, he is 4-5 on his predictions on a game by game basis.

[usmccharles]

Kind of funny actually. Technically, 5-11 is a good projection based on what we've seen so far, so he may actually be right in that regard.

However, he unfortunately went out of his way to make game by game predictions, and so far, he is 4-5 on his predictions on a game by game basis.

sadly... His projections aren't too Far off, even more sadly he disappeared after he got Epically called out.

[wizard1]

Well I have not disappeared in fact even tho I had The Ravens barely  getting a victory  I was right again on the score. I am not perfect because I would be more famous than I already am. But take a look back at the beginning of the thread and I don't see how much more right I can be. At this point I'm standing by my predictions for the most part but a few things have changed. For one there is absolutely no way we win 5 games this year. In fact looking at our schedule I'm finding it difficult to see another victory except with the Bengals-who will wrap up the division next week and will certainly be sitting everyone out that last game

[rmcjacket23]

Well I have not disappeared in fact even tho I had The Ravens barely  getting a victory  I was right again on the score. I am not perfect because I would be more famous than I already am. But take a look back at the beginning of the thread and I don't see how much more right I can be. At this point I'm standing by my predictions for the most part but a few things have changed. For one there is absolutely no way we win 5 games this year. In fact looking at our schedule I'm finding it difficult to see another victory except with the Bengals-who will wrap up the division next week and will certainly be sitting everyone out that last game

Well, but again, you are actually 4-5 in week-to-week predictions. So you could obviously be significantly better.