Grantland AFC North: How the Ravens Will Regain the Throne

[izvoodoo]

Bill Barwell from Grantland wrote a pretty interesting and analytical article on our odds for why we should be favorites in the AFC north.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/afc-north-how-the-ravens-will-regain-the-throne/?ex_cid=GrantlandFB

Edited August 12, 2015 by izvoodoo

[Ravens4Real]

Although he picked the Ravens to win the North, that may have been the dumbest article I have ever read. I actually stopped half way through.

Did he really base how teams would be on the point for and against the team from last year. I didn't understand how they came to figure out how they decided the wins from that either. It was just the dumbest argument I have ever seen to translate last success to future success.

[beasy2487]

Gotta admire Barnwell's ability to write about the Ravens whilst barely mentioning the Ravens. 

[hawkprey]

Although he picked the Ravens to win the North, that may have been the dumbest article I have ever read. I actually stopped half way through.

Did he really base how teams would be on the point for and against the team from last year. I didn't understand how they came to figure out how they decided the wins from that either. It was just the dumbest argument I have ever seen to translate last success to future success.

What he's saying is that points for/against is a better indicator of next year success than wins, based on historical data. Just because you don't understand it doesn't mean it's dumb. 

[Ravens4Real]

What he's saying is that points for/against is a better indicator of next year success than wins, based on historical data. Just because you don't understand it doesn't mean it's dumb.

Yeah, I am pretty sure the part you quoted specifically has me stating what you wrote. Reading comprehension is a valid skill.

What I said, it's completely dumb to base a teams performance from year to year on their points for and against in the previous year.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Ravens4Real

[izvoodoo]

Yeah, I am pretty sure the part you quoted specifically has me stating what you wrote. Reading comprehension is a valid skill.

What I said, it's completely dumb to base a teams performance from year to year on their points for and against in the previous year.

At this point there's very few actual analytical points to understand rises and falls of team.  This article, in my opinion is about as informative as anything coming out right now.  

[Ravens4Real]

At this point there's very few actual analytical points to understand rises and falls of team. This article, in my opinion is about as informative as anything coming out right now.

To each their own, I guess. I just think that there are so many more factors that can play into points for and against from year to year. I.e injuries, new quarterback, losses in free agency

[beanfigger]

To each their own, I guess. I just think that there are so many more factors that can play into points for and against from year to year. I.e injuries, new quarterback, losses in free agency

Perhaps go back and read the second half...

[Ravens4Real]

Perhaps go back and read the second half...

Yeah, I said that I stopped because I didn't agree with his arguments. That is my own fault for not continuing.

[beanfigger]

Yeah, I said that I stopped because I didn't agree with his arguments. That is my own fault for not continuing.

To sum it up, he stated that the Bengals ended up with a good record because they went undefeated in close games. He then went back and looked at all the other teams who have done that and noted that every time the record has been worse (many times significantly) the following year. He then stated it would take a near miracle for the Steelers to be as healthy as they were last season, particularly on offense, and that it would be very hard to duplicate their success in a season while dealing with injuries to offensive starters, considering how thin they are on that side of the ball. He stated very little about the Ravens aside from the fact that they seemed due for a jump in record due to their (under)performance last season, and that they are sure to be somewhat healthier when it comes to the secondary.

Edited August 13, 2015 by beanfigger

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

Yeah, I am pretty sure the part you quoted specifically has me stating what you wrote. Reading comprehension is a valid skill.

What I said, it's completely dumb to base a teams performance from year to year on their points for and against in the previous year.

It may sound stupid on the surface, and I agree, and might not seem like last years point diff could have any barring on this years record....

But if he did the research and found that historically point diff actually is a decent predictor of following year success - doesn't matter if it makes sense or if we can draw a connection - actual data shows it to be relevant.

Not saying I put much stock in it but a general correlation does seem to exist. It's not like the guy chose this as his metric - the data point to it as being a useful tool, at least more useful than educated guesses and expert predictions.

[ravensfan160]

Yeah, I am pretty sure the part you quoted specifically has me stating what you wrote. Reading comprehension is a valid skill.

What I said, it's completely dumb to base a teams performance from year to year on their points for and against in the previous year.

But that was only part of his argument. He also went into detail about what each team did in the offseason to improve. The Bengals for example in his opinion did little to improve their biggest weakness which was pass rush and they are unlikely to get much out of their draft class this year since they drafted two OT that will be nothing more than backups as rookies.

[1/28/01]

Whats this "regain" thing? Sure, we may not take the division every year, but we certainly have advanced further when it matters more often than any other team in the AFCN over the last 4 or 5 years.

[ellicottraven]

I think they made the case for Baltimore winning the AFC North very logical, simple and succinct. The bottom line is the Bengals and Steelers both know we are the better team and they will lose against a superior team each time they play this year.

[A Fish Called Yanda]

I really enjoyed reading this article.  Yes, it did talk more about the Steelers and the Bengals, but in football winning your division is often as much about your team as it is about the other teams in your division (especially when it comes to the AFC North).

 

I was fascinated by the discussion of the Steelers offense.  I am fully expecting them to have one of the best offenses in the entire NFL (while also having one of the worst defenses), but I was not aware that they were so thin at almost every position.  If the Steelers have any sort of injuries to their star players, they could really struggle this year.  Their defense will have almost no ability to keep them in games if they can't score high numbers.  I think most of their games will come to shootouts with their opponents.  From looking at our teams on paper (yes, I know this is foolish), I wouldn't be surprised if we were able to sweep them this year.  I think our defense should be good enough to hold their offense somewhat in check, and I have very high expectations for our offense.  I think we match up really well with them.

[izvoodoo]

I really enjoyed reading this article.  Yes, it did talk more about the Steelers and the Bengals, but in football winning your division is often as much about your team as it is about the other teams in your division (especially when it comes to the AFC North).

 

I was fascinated by the discussion of the Steelers offense.  I am fully expecting them to have one of the best offenses in the entire NFL (while also having one of the worst defenses), but I was not aware that they were so thin at almost every position.  If the Steelers have any sort of injuries to their star players, they could really struggle this year.  Their defense will have almost no ability to keep them in games if they can't score high numbers.  I think most of their games will come to shootouts with their opponents.  From looking at our teams on paper (yes, I know this is foolish), I wouldn't be surprised if we were able to sweep them this year.  I think our defense should be good enough to hold their offense somewhat in check, and I have very high expectations for our offense.  I think we match up really well with them.

They've done a poor job of drafting and developing depth, it seems.  

[Purple_City39]

Yeah, the Steelers last few drafts have been disappointing at the top end which is setting them back.  The Tomlin era has struggled to draft good defensive players also, usually leaning on Cowher drafted defenders outside of Timmons and Woodley

[ravensfan160]

They've done a poor job of drafting and developing depth, it seems.  

Their GM should have been fired for the disaster that was their backup running back position last year. Bell gets hurt and suddenly you're siging a guy off the street to basically start a playoff game. Why are the other RBs even on the roster then if they can't play? Colbert really dropped the ball there. I'm glad he did but that was embarrasing last year for them.

[Purple_City39]

Their GM should have been fired for the disaster that was their backup running back position last year. Bell gets hurt and suddenly you're siging a guy off the street to basically start a playoff game. Why are the other RBs even on the roster then if they can't play? Colbert really dropped the ball there. I'm glad he did but that was embarrasing last year for them.

That's not fully on Colbert.  Wasn't it Tomlin that cut Blount for leaving a game early or something? 

[ravensdan]

That's not fully on Colbert. Wasn't it Tomlin that cut Blount for leaving a game early or something?

I suspect there was an underhanded deal with Blount and the hoodie to get out of pittsburgh.

[ravensfan160]

That's not fully on Colbert.  Wasn't it Tomlin that cut Blount for leaving a game early or something? 

Yeah but that happened pretty early in the season. He had plenty of time to sign a veteran RB.

[jimjim5]

That was a good article.

[usmccharles]

Gotta admire Barnwell's ability to write about the Ravens whilst barely mentioning the Ravens.

Considering the article was about why the Ravens should be favored... It makes perfect sense. Interesting read tho

[Bruce_Almty]

Latest Power Rankings have us third, behind Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, in our own division and 11th best team in the NFL. Early this morning on Mike and Mike they, the all-encompassing "they", talked about the AFCs best defenses and best front 7s and Baltimore never once was mentioned. Five and six teams were mentioned but not the Ravens. I'm pretty sure there is not a bulletin board for video diss' of a team's abilities but if there were, this morning's M&M would be included. Baltimore, as is often the case, is flying under the radar but will surprise many as the wins accumulate.

[jdynamite]

I'm surprised I missed this article. I read a lot of things on Grantland ( although sometimes articles get a little long ).

[Blackbirds Rule]

Whats this "regain" thing? Sure, we may not take the division every year, but we certainly have advanced further when it matters more often than any other team in the AFCN over the last 4 or 5 years.

Yeah us fans know that it doesn't matter if we win the division as long as we get in. Once we're in we have the chops to take it whether we're home or away.

[usmccharles]

Latest Power Rankings have us third, behind Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, in our own division and 11th best team in the NFL. Early this morning on Mike and Mike they, the all-encompassing "they", talked about the AFCs best defenses and best front 7s and Baltimore never once was mentioned. Five and six teams were mentioned but not the Ravens. I'm pretty sure there is not a bulletin board for video diss' of a team's abilities but if there were, this morning's M&M would be included. Baltimore, as is often the case, is flying under the radar but will surprise many as the wins accumulate.

It might have something to do with not having Ngata anymore.  Yes we the fans know we have some good depth and what they are capable of, but they havent done it yet.  I have no doubt we will have a top front 7 in the league, i think suggs is going to have a monster year after Doom showed him up, but i can understand them not mentioning it.