[News] Ravens Statement On 'Tipping Off' Colts About Deflategate

[rmcjacket23]

As we say in statistics, it's a correlation, not necessarily causation.

 

No denying it's a pretty strong correlation, however. People can determine the meaning of that correlation for themselves.

Bingo

[BirdWatcher]

So, back on the subject of this article, even Preston has a good take on this today. I'm not saying we did tip off the Colts, but so what if we did? Coaches share information all the time. It's part of the game.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-preston-ravens-column-0806-20150805-column.html

[rmcjacket23]

So, back on the subject of this article, even Preston has a good take on this today. I'm not saying we did tip off the Colts, but so what if we did? Coaches share information all the time. It's part of the game.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-preston-ravens-column-0806-20150805-column.html

My entire argument from yesterday. Doesn't matter whether we did or didn't. Us fans are spending so much time trying to explain how we DIDN'T tip that off that we don't even realize that it doesn't matter whether we did or didn't.

[January J]

My entire argument from yesterday. Doesn't matter whether we did or didn't. Us fans are spending so much time trying to explain how we DIDN'T tip that off that we don't even realize that it doesn't matter whether we did or didn't.

seems to me that harbaugh was the one that explained how we didn't tip anybody off, most fans ARE saying that it shouldn't matter either way.. Either that or they're just commenting on harbaughs response- which frankly I don't think he should have even had to give one. He didn't do a bad job or really say anything wrong, he just sounded a little defensive. he should have just responded with " no, but how is this even relevant?" .. The text messages and all that was just unneccessary IMO - however I see why he wanted to be completely open and not even put off the impression we were being devious in any way, put an end to the discussion immediately so that were not even remotely associated with the patriots or come off as "liars" in any way.

[rmcjacket23]

seems to me that harbaugh was the one that explained how we didn't tip anybody off, most fans ARE saying that it shouldn't matter either way.. Either that or they're just commenting on harbaughs response- which frankly I don't think he should have even had to give one. He didn't do a bad job or really say anything wrong, he just sounded a little defensive. he should have just responded with " no, but how is this even relevant?" .. The text messages and all that was just unneccessary IMO - however I see why he wanted to be completely open and not even put off the impression we were being devious in any way, put an end to the discussion immediately so that were not even remotely associated with the patriots or come off as "liars" in any way.

Correct, though as we fans are guilty of, there's undoubtedly a large segment who thinks that we tipped them off (regardless of whether we did or didn't) and that Harbaugh is simply lying in his denial.

 

We Ravens fans take anything he says as gospel mostly, but not everybody thinks the same way.

 

But I agree... he didn't need to nor should he have addressed it at all.

[The Mom Gene]

Coach Billick mentioned 6 teams.   Who are the other 5?

>My take:

Packers

Seahawks (unfortunately)

Cowboys

Patriots (unfortunately & dislike them the most)  

Steelers (please not them)

 

If the NFL gods want SB 50, they would choose Packers-Pittsburgh. IMO 

So, How often are the NFL Gods right???  RARELY.

I'll take Packers/Baltimore...  That's the one I want to see.

My two favorite QB's.

[The Mom Gene]

The media is really desperate when they have to split hairs on an issue far in the past and  totally non relevent to the commisioners' decision. They can waste more time like televising Cowboys practice for three hours.   

I'm still going with the whole...  If you cannot defend your argument, you deflect blame elsewhere.  That's what they have done since the beginning.  They are running out of people to blame.

[RavensBaltimore]

Has everything to do with starting with a conclusion, because there's zero chance this is even a discussion.

Just because deflategate caused people to look into it doesn't mean that people start with a conclusion. Police often get a tip  that causes them to investigate something, but that doesn't mean that they still don't let the facts determine their conclusion. What initiated the investigation is 100% irrelevant to the facts of the investigation, and the facts all overwhelmingly point in one direction.

 

 

 Be very, very, very careful with the "fact" word, because you're stretching it beyond what it actually is. The Patriots didn't fumble as much during that period... that's a factual statement. It can be supported by evidence.

 

Crossing over into the "they didn't fumble as much BECAUSE they used deflated footballs" is NOT a fact... it can't even be vaguely described as a fact. Its an assumption, or an insinuation, not a fact. Its an attempted explanation for why something factual happened, not a fact itself.

I never said it was a fact that the Patriots stopped fumbling because they used deflated footballs. I said the actual facts blatantly lead us to that conclusion. It technically wasn't a fact that Aaron Hernandez was guilty. The jury looked at all the facts they did have, and they all blatantly pointed to one conclusion, so they connected the dots with common sense, something that you're refusing to do.

 

These are the undisputed facts:

 

From 2000-2006, the Patriots fumbled once every 42 touches. The league leader was 1/56.

 

From 2007-2014, the Patriots fumbled once every 74 touches. The next team was still at 1/56.

 

An article DEFENDING the Patriots said that there was less than a 0.5% chance that something like that would randomly happen. Another mathematician said there was a 1 in 16,000 chance it would happen.

 

In 2006, Brady, who has publicly stated that he likes less air in the footballs, successfully lobbied for teams to be able to bring their own footballs to every game.

 

Scientists have stated that having less air in the football makes them easier to catch, hold onto, and grip.

 

Of the 32 teams in the league, the Patriots are the one and only other team that even came close to having such a drastic change during a 15 year sample size.

 

True, correlation doesn't equal causation, but we have so much more than just a simple correlation here. We have multiple correlations that are extremely improbable by themselves, let alone together. And the most important thing you're leaving out is a complete and utter lack of any other variable that could cause such a thing. Any time I've used the "correlation doesn't equal causation" argument, I've been able to provide some other reason for causation, but you don't have one, and neither does anyone else. We have all kinds of circumstantial evidence, scientific evidence, statistical evidence, a huge sample size, and a perfectly fitting timeline, and it all strongly points to one conclusion. You are obviously the one who is starting with a conclusion. You assumed the deflated balls didn't affect the game from the beginning, and you're refusing to acknowledge the overwhelming evidence.

 

If you let the FACTS determine your conclusion, there is proof beyond a reasonable doubt that deflating the footballs played a significant role in the dropoff in the Pats' fumble rate. When you add up all the evidence, it is a FACT that there is only a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent of a chance that it didn't.

[rmcjacket23]

Just because deflategate caused people to look into it doesn't mean that people start with a conclusion. Police often get a tip  that causes them to investigate something, but that doesn't mean that they still don't let the facts determine their conclusion. What initiated the investigation is 100% irrelevant to the facts of the investigation, and the facts all overwhelmingly point in one direction.

 

 

I never said it was a fact that the Patriots stopped fumbling because they used deflated footballs. I said the actual facts blatantly lead us to that conclusion. It technically wasn't a fact that Aaron Hernandez was guilty. The jury looked at all the facts they did have, and they all blatantly pointed to one conclusion, so they connected the dots with common sense, something that you're refusing to do.

 

These are the undisputed facts:

 

From 2000-2006, the Patriots fumbled once every 42 touches. The league leader was 1/56.

 

From 2007-2014, the Patriots fumbled once every 74 touches. The next team was still at 1/56.

 

An article DEFENDING the Patriots said that there was less than a 0.5% chance that something like that would randomly happen. Another mathematician said there was a 1 in 16,000 chance it would happen.

 

In 2006, Brady, who has publicly stated that he likes less air in the footballs, successfully lobbied for teams to be able to bring their own footballs to every game.

 

Scientists have stated that having less air in the football makes them easier to catch, hold onto, and grip.

 

Of the 32 teams in the league, the Patriots are the one and only other team that even came close to having such a drastic change during a 15 year sample size.

 

True, correlation doesn't equal causation, but we have so much more than just a simple correlation here. We have multiple correlations that are extremely improbable by themselves, let alone together. And the most important thing you're leaving out is a complete and utter lack of any other variable that could cause such a thing. Any time I've used the "correlation doesn't equal causation" argument, I've been able to provide some other reason for causation, but you don't have one, and neither does anyone else. We have all kinds of circumstantial evidence, scientific evidence, statistical evidence, a huge sample size, and a perfectly fitting timeline, and it all strongly points to one conclusion. You are obviously the one who is starting with a conclusion. You assumed the deflated balls didn't affect the game from the beginning, and you're refusing to acknowledge the overwhelming evidence.

 

If you let the FACTS determine your conclusion, there is proof beyond a reasonable doubt that deflating the footballs played a significant role in the dropoff in the Pats' fumble rate. When you add up all the evidence, it is a FACT that there is only a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent of a chance that it didn't.

So then why not punish the Patriots for this? If there's "beyond a reasonable doubt", shouldn't there be a very swift and harsh punishment against the Patriots for cheating for many, many years?

 

Why hasn't this happened yet? What's stopping the NFL?

 

The answer is one of two things:

 

1. They don't care. Given how much money, time, etc. they've invested in trying to prove that Brady deflated some footballs in ONE game, this would seem unlikely.

 

2. They, like me, don't think a large amount of statistical data draws them to a conclusion that they wouldn't reach had a prior event not occurred (in this case... deflategate).

 

Remember, this was allegedly something that EVERYBODY in the league knew about, yet nothing happened until they actually got their hands on a football they used that was deflated. They knew what we all know... a statistical data sample saying that what the Patriots were doing was nearly impossible just simply isn't going to cut it from a "evidence for punishment" standpoint.

 

Basically, this is complementary data... not primary data. And by all accounts from anything we've read from the Wells Report or anything coming out from the appeal process thus far, this isn't data that the NFL one bit cared about, despite obviously having access to it. Clearly, they just didn't put too much stock into it, even if it is potentially a complimentary piece to a case they've already made. If this evidence is so damning to Brady and the Patriots case, why not use it against him in a punishment-determining process?

[rmcjacket23]

True, correlation doesn't equal causation, but we have so much more than just a simple correlation here. We have multiple correlations that are extremely improbable by themselves, let alone together. And the most important thing you're leaving out is a complete and utter lack of any other variable that could cause such a thing. Any time I've used the "correlation doesn't equal causation" argument, I've been able to provide some other reason for causation, but you don't have one, and neither does anyone else. We have all kinds of circumstantial evidence, scientific evidence, statistical evidence, a huge sample size, and a perfectly fitting timeline, and it all strongly points to one conclusion. You are obviously the one who is starting with a conclusion. You assumed the deflated balls didn't affect the game from the beginning, and you're refusing to acknowledge the overwhelming evidence.

You're right... I assumed the deflated balls didn't affect the ONE game we are discussing. I watched that game, and its a tough sell, as it always has been. I could care less about any of the other games, because the NFL doesn't and therefore I certainly don't.

The REAL reason for this type of study is to attempt to validate PUBLIC perception that the Patriots have been cheating for years. It isn't being used to issue any sort of punishment other than the punishment in the court of public opinion, which particuarly in this case, is also the most irrelevant court.

I care whether other teams deflate footballs for years as much as I care about teams pumping in crowd noise for years, players using PEDs, players issuing bounties to injure other players, and teams video taping other teams practices... and that care is very little. If I was so outraged and offended by the "lack of integrity" associated with these things, I'd have stopped watching football long ago, as should anybody that appears to be so outraged by it.

But I'm not, because football is entertainment for me. The 100% responsibility, in my eyes, for every NFL franchise player, personnel, etc. is to keep ME entertained. Deflating footballs isn't going to reduce my entertainment in the sport any more than PEDs or any other illegal acts will. I don't care what they do outside of football any more than they care what I do outside of football. When players violate the law outside of football, the number one priority for ME is to determine what impact that will have on my entertainment experience when I'm watching football.

[January J]

Just because deflategate caused people to look into it doesn't mean that people start with a conclusion. Police often get a tip that causes them to investigate something, but that doesn't mean that they still don't let the facts determine their conclusion. What initiated the investigation is 100% irrelevant to the facts of the investigation, and the facts all overwhelmingly point in one direction.

I never said it was a fact that the Patriots stopped fumbling because they used deflated footballs. I said the actual facts blatantly lead us to that conclusion. It technically wasn't a fact that Aaron Hernandez was guilty. The jury looked at all the facts they did have, and they all blatantly pointed to one conclusion, so they connected the dots with common sense, something that you're refusing to do.

These are the undisputed facts:

From 2000-2006, the Patriots fumbled once every 42 touches. The league leader was 1/56.

From 2007-2014, the Patriots fumbled once every 74 touches. The next team was still at 1/56.

An article DEFENDING the Patriots said that there was less than a 0.5% chance that something like that would randomly happen. Another mathematician said there was a 1 in 16,000 chance it would happen.

In 2006, Brady, who has publicly stated that he likes less air in the footballs, successfully lobbied for teams to be able to bring their own footballs to every game.

Scientists have stated that having less air in the football makes them easier to catch, hold onto, and grip.

Of the 32 teams in the league, the Patriots are the one and only other team that even came close to having such a drastic change during a 15 year sample size.

True, correlation doesn't equal causation, but we have so much more than just a simple correlation here. We have multiple correlations that are extremely improbable by themselves, let alone together. And the most important thing you're leaving out is a complete and utter lack of any other variable that could cause such a thing. Any time I've used the "correlation doesn't equal causation" argument, I've been able to provide some other reason for causation, but you don't have one, and neither does anyone else. We have all kinds of circumstantial evidence, scientific evidence, statistical evidence, a huge sample size, and a perfectly fitting timeline, and it all strongly points to one conclusion. You are obviously the one who is starting with a conclusion. You assumed the deflated balls didn't affect the game from the beginning, and you're refusing to acknowledge the overwhelming evidence.

If you let the FACTS determine your conclusion, there is proof beyond a reasonable doubt that deflating the footballs played a significant role in the dropoff in the Pats' fumble rate. When you add up all the evidence, it is a FACT that there is only a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent of a chance that it didn't.

can't argue with that. Awesome post.

[RavensBaltimore]

You're right... I assumed the deflated balls didn't affect the ONE game we are discussing. I watched that game, and its a tough sell, as it always has been. I could care less about any of the other games, because the NFL doesn't and therefore I certainly don't.

The REAL reason for this type of study is to attempt to validate PUBLIC perception that the Patriots have been cheating for years. It isn't being used to issue any sort of punishment other than the punishment in the court of public opinion, which particuarly in this case, is also the most irrelevant court.

I care whether other teams deflate footballs for years as much as I care about teams pumping in crowd noise for years, players using PEDs, players issuing bounties to injure other players, and teams video taping other teams practices... and that care is very little. If I was so outraged and offended by the "lack of integrity" associated with these things, I'd have stopped watching football long ago, as should anybody that appears to be so outraged by it.

But I'm not, because football is entertainment for me. The 100% responsibility, in my eyes, for every NFL franchise player, personnel, etc. is to keep ME entertained. Deflating footballs isn't going to reduce my entertainment in the sport any more than PEDs or any other illegal acts will. I don't care what they do outside of football any more than they care what I do outside of football. When players violate the law outside of football, the number one priority for ME is to determine what impact that will have on my entertainment experience when I'm watching football.

I have no problem with you not caring. I was just looking at the facts. Whether or not someone cares is their own personal business. 

 

I also watch sports for entertainment, but I do care when someone gets a significant advantage by cheating. I used to be a huge MLB fan, but finding out about all the steroid use was a major reason why I lost interest. It's not because I was "outraged". It's because competition is not entertaining to me when it has no integrity. Watching a game between two of the best teams on the planet, seeing who comes out on top, is exciting. When the competition is rigged, it ruins the excitement, because you're not going to get to see a legit outcome. It's like seeing an awesome picture, then realizing it's photoshopped. At first, it seems amazing, then when you find out it's photoshopped, it's like, eh, whatever, it's fake. That's how I felt about the homerun records in the 90's, and that's how I feel about the Patriots, and every other cheater. I don't stop watching football because I don't have reason to believe my team cheats, nor do I have reason to believe it's a league wide problem, so for the most part, the competition seems legit, and when we beat a team that had an unfair advantage, it makes it that much better.

 

Also, public perception does matter to a lot of people. Just look at all the debate between who's the best ever, who's elite, who's a HOFer, etc. If someone got their status by cheating, it affects all of that. You keep mentioning "outrage", but to me, it's not about that at all. It's just a relevant thing that plays a role in judging players and teams, and anyone who wants to see a real competition with a legit winner doesn't want to see cheating involved in the sport. You may not care about any of that, but I would think you can understand where everyone else is coming from.

[RavensBaltimore]

So then why not punish the Patriots for this? If there's "beyond a reasonable doubt", shouldn't there be a very swift and harsh punishment against the Patriots for cheating for many, many years?

 

Why hasn't this happened yet? What's stopping the NFL?

 

The answer is one of two things:

 

1. They don't care. Given how much money, time, etc. they've invested in trying to prove that Brady deflated some footballs in ONE game, this would seem unlikely.

 

2. They, like me, don't think a large amount of statistical data draws them to a conclusion that they wouldn't reach had a prior event not occurred (in this case... deflategate).

 

Remember, this was allegedly something that EVERYBODY in the league knew about, yet nothing happened until they actually got their hands on a football they used that was deflated. They knew what we all know... a statistical data sample saying that what the Patriots were doing was nearly impossible just simply isn't going to cut it from a "evidence for punishment" standpoint.

 

Basically, this is complementary data... not primary data. And by all accounts from anything we've read from the Wells Report or anything coming out from the appeal process thus far, this isn't data that the NFL one bit cared about, despite obviously having access to it. Clearly, they just didn't put too much stock into it, even if it is potentially a complimentary piece to a case they've already made. If this evidence is so damning to Brady and the Patriots case, why not use it against him in a punishment-determining process?

First of all, the league did punish the Patriots for this. In Troy Vincent's statement about the Pats' penalty, he said there was strong evidence that this has been going on for a long time, and the Patriots got a much harsher penalty than a team that deflated footballs for one game would. Also, you're talking about how much someone cares about the data and what initiated the investigation. You didn't refute any of the facts that the data showed, because you obviously can't.

 

Second, one coincidence, without evidence of cheating, is very suspicious, but it doesn't really prove anything. Once they find evidence of cheating, and it perfectly explains the coincidence, scientifically, statistically, and based on the timeline, and there is a lack of any other conceivable cause, and the odds of all that just happening are literally astronomical, then you have proof, or at least proof beyond a reasonable doubt. I have seen murder trials where they used a correlation between statistical data, a timeline, and common sense to get a conviction. The Patriots didn't do anything criminal, and they did get harshly punished for what they did, which is probably why they haven't made a bigger deal about it than they have, but again, it most likely did play a role in their punishment.

 

You can criticize the data with generalizations all you want, but you can't point to anything specific that is wrong with it. Again, just use common sense. It is allowed.

[January J]

You're right... I assumed the deflated balls didn't affect the ONE game we are discussing. I watched that game, and its a tough sell, as it always has been. I could care less about any of the other games, because the NFL doesn't and therefore I certainly don't.

The REAL reason for this type of study is to attempt to validate PUBLIC perception that the Patriots have been cheating for years. It isn't being used to issue any sort of punishment other than the punishment in the court of public opinion, which particuarly in this case, is also the most irrelevant court.

I care whether other teams deflate footballs for years as much as I care about teams pumping in crowd noise for years, players using PEDs, players issuing bounties to injure other players, and teams video taping other teams practices... and that care is very little. If I was so outraged and offended by the "lack of integrity" associated with these things, I'd have stopped watching football long ago, as should anybody that appears to be so outraged by it.

But I'm not, because football is entertainment for me. The 100% responsibility, in my eyes, for every NFL franchise player, personnel, etc. is to keep ME entertained. Deflating footballs isn't going to reduce my entertainment in the sport any more than PEDs or any other illegal acts will. I don't care what they do outside of football any more than they care what I do outside of football. When players violate the law outside of football, the number one priority for ME is to determine what impact that will have on my entertainment experience when I'm watching football.

see football is more than just entertainment for me. A television sitcom is entertainment. Football to me is more of a hobby and a lifestyle. So when the integrity of the game gets comprised that is a big deal to some people. Nothing wrong with football just being a form of entertainment for some people , to each his own.

[stampedehero]

I'm still going with the whole...  If you cannot defend your argument, you deflect blame elsewhere.  That's what they have done since the beginning.  They are running out of people to blame.

Hey Mom,   Thats the way this country operates

[stampedehero]

So, How often are the NFL Gods right???  RARELY.

I'll take Packers/Baltimore...  That's the one I want to see.

My two favorite QB's.

Mom   Believe me I really really want US but since this country can ignite conspiring events then all percentages point against our team

[The Mom Gene]

see football is more than just entertainment for me. A television sitcom is entertainment. Football to me is more of a hobby and a lifestyle. So when the integrity of the game gets comprised that is a big deal to some people. Nothing wrong with football just being a form of entertainment for some people , to each his own.

Football, only entertainment????  Are you kidding????  Cripe, it's everything.  I mean it's right up there with going to work everyday, and paying the mortgage.   LOLOLOL

[MTRavensFan]

Football, only entertainment????  Are you kidding????  Cripe, it's everything.  I mean it's right up there with going to work everyday, and paying the mortgage.   LOLOLOL

Especially if you have to have Sunday Ticket to see our Ravens.

That payment"s  almost as much as a mortgage, LOL 

[balfan23]

I loved it when Harbaugh was asked if he read the "testimony". He looked at the reporter like, "what?" .. He didn't know what he was talking about.

 

Even if he did - who in their right mind would waste their time reading a 450+ page document filled with legal gibberish? Certainly not the HC of an NFL team who is working 18 hours a day trying to get a team ready for the season. Sometimes, the question that these guys ask are unbelievable. 

[TXRavensFan]

I loved it when Harbaugh was asked if he read the "testimony". He looked at the reporter like, "what?" .. He didn't know what he was talking about.

 

Even if he did - who in their right mind would waste their time reading a 450+ page document filled with legal gibberish? Certainly not the HC of an NFL team who is working 18 hours a day trying to get a team ready for the season. Sometimes, the question that these guys ask are unbelievable. 

 

LOL I actually read it all. It's really not as bad as it seems, since each page is divided into individually numbered quadrants (4 "pages" for each standard page) and about 30 pages at the end are an index, so it really amounts to about 120 pages (took me a couple of hours). Some really fascinating stuff in there. I posted an exchange where Goodell will have nothing to do with some made up story about ball preparation Brady was making (trying to use the Belichick "ball rubbing" defense) and Kessler basically steps in and essentially says "these facts are too confused so let's just move on" lol.