[News] Late For Work 5/21: Where Is Ravens Salary Cap Money Going?

[BR News]

Yanda ONLY guard to make top 100. Urschel uses math to predict kicking changes. Hill wants to hit.

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[757RavensFan]

You gotta love Will Hill's passion to "hit people". Maybe he'll bring that same mentality and physical ability as Pollard.

[stixfix69]

Pollard was beast mode back there, i was wondering if they would consider bringing him back if they felt our safety position was so thin, which i don't think it is....

[757RavensFan]

Pollard was the so called "leader" of the "mutiny" his last year here.  You might not ever hear the coach or front office say it, but Pollard will never play here again.

[stixfix69]

Sad it ended up that way for him, i really loved watching Pollard play....

[alexbayrobin]

I read on here yesterday some people saying let Yanda go because he is going to cost to much. After watching him here he is a keeper and I hope they can find a way to keep him.

[bostonraven]

Since the E of the 2-pt conversion is higher than then E of the Field Goal kick, there is indeed a statistical incentive for the 2-pt conversion. Unsure why Urschel disagrees.

[Purple&BlackHeart]

Despite the whole Ray Rice debacle (Wish he and his family well) and Ngata's dead money, and losing other key players. A genius of a man stood tall with his crew of talented individuals and built a well stocked and talented roster. Where most organizations in this situation would panic, crumble, or tuck their tails between between their legs. Oz and Co just do what they do best Scout, draft, crunch numbers, make fantastic deals/signings, win, repeat.

 

In ozzie I shall always trust!

Edited May 21, 2015 by Purple&BlackHeart

[757RavensFan]

Since the E of the 2-pt conversion is higher than then E of the Field Goal kick, there is indeed a statistical incentive for the 2-pt conversion. Unsure why Urschel disagrees.

 

I'm far from a math major, but his E equation was a part of the forumla he used to determine the following success rate:

 

 

The success rate of the new 33-yard extra-point attempts is still very high (92.8 percent) compared to the two-point conversion success rates (47.9 percent).

[RavenManiac#7]

All I want to hear about Yanda is that his contract has been extended. We already know everything else we need to know about him.

[NCMan]

Since the E of the 2-pt conversion is higher than then E of the Field Goal kick, there is indeed a statistical incentive for the 2-pt conversion. Unsure why Urschel disagrees.

Personally, I think the main reason they (NFL) moved it back is to make it less of a "gimme" kick, not to get teams to consider going for two. Kind of like comparing apples to oranges, I think.

[rmcjacket23]

Personally, I think the main reason they (NFL) moved it back is to make it less of a "gimme" kick, not to get teams to consider going for two. Kind of like comparing apples to oranges, I think.

True, but one is an inherent byproduct of the other.

 

If you make the PAT more difficult to make, thus reducing the likelihood of making it, you also produce a relevant rationale or reason for a team to consider going for 2.

 

There's certainly a ton of factors that play into the decision, and we all understand most of those. But a kicker lacking confidence and weather conditions are now significant factors, and I will bet they lead to more 2PC attempts in the future. You really didn't have to worry too much about either of those factors with the old PAT, because it was essentially a "gimme". You didn't need kicking confidence or even good weather to make it.

 

Now, you need both.

[sami]

I hope Brooks and Elam pays attention to how Hill and K-Lewis play their positions. They might learn something.

[bioLarzen]

Personally, I think the main reason they (NFL) moved it back is to make it less of a "gimme" kick, not to get teams to consider going for two. Kind of like comparing apples to oranges, I think.

 

Well, there is a rather direct correlation - at least in theory: the riskier a single-point attempt gets, the less risky a two-point conversion COMPARED TO THE PAT gets.

 

Just imagine this: you get two setups:

 

a.) you have 10 bags, 9 of which have a 1 dollar bill in them, one is empty.

b.) you have 10 bags, 4 of which have a 2 dollars in them, the other 6 are empty.

 

You can pick one bag and keep what's inside. Which setup wpould you choose? It's easy to see that most people wopuld only go for setup #2 if they really NEED 2 dollars, 1 is not enough - the seciond setup is simply way more risky than the first one.

 

Now, change the setups a bit:

 

a.) you have 10 bags, 7 of which have a 1 dollar bill in them, the other three bags are empty.

b.) you have 10 bags, 5 of which have a 2 dollars in them, the other 5 are empty.

 

This is definitely a more challenging decision - the odds come much closer, so now it may be tmepting enough for some to go for the 2 bucks even if they don't necessarily need 2.

 

That's the theory behind it. In practice... we'll see what happens. I tend to agree with Urschel in thinking there wont be significantly more 2-point attempts., especially when the score mathematics doesn't make it more favourable. In other words, not many coaches will go for two "just because".

[bioLarzen]

I still think it would have been an interesting idea to include a point in the new PAT-rule that says the backup QB has to be on the field for the two-point conversions instead of the #1 QB... but hey, you can't have everything

[Halshayeji]

We still have over 7 mil in cap space. Awesome!

20 mil dead cap coming off the books next year. Awesome!

Keeping Yanda is a must.

KO is walking in the same footsteps as Yanda. Keeping him is also a must.

[bioLarzen]

Pollard was the so called "leader" of the "mutiny" his last year here.  You might not ever hear the coach or front office say it, but Pollard will never play here again.

 

Also, he was a flag magnet. It was easy to love the way he played the position - but he cost us a lot of yardage... way more than Hill or Darian Stewart.

[bostonraven]

Well, there is a rather direct correlation - at least in theory: the riskier a single-point attempt gets, the less risky a two-point conversion COMPARED TO THE PAT gets.

 

Just imagine this: you get two setups:

 

a.) you have 10 bags, 9 of which have a 1 dollar bill in them, one is empty.

b.) you have 10 bags, 4 of which have a 2 dollars in them, the other 6 are empty.

 

You can pick one bag and keep what's inside. Which setup wpould you choose? It's easy to see that most people wopuld only go for setup #2 if they really NEED 2 dollars, 1 is not enough - the seciond setup is simply way more risky than the first one.

 

Now, change the setups a bit:

 

a.) you have 10 bags, 7 of which have a 1 dollar bill in them, the other three bags are empty.

b.) you have 10 bags, 5 of which have a 2 dollars in them, the other 5 are empty.

 

This is definitely a more challenging decision - the odds come much closer, so now it may be tmepting enough for some to go for the 2 bucks even if they don't necessarily need 2.

 

That's the theory behind it. In practice... we'll see what happens. I tend to agree with Urschel in thinking there wont be significantly more 2-point attempts., especially when the score mathematics doesn't make it more favourable. In other words, not many coaches will go for two "just because".

The E value suggests that there's a similar probability either way. High-power offensive teams will have a higher probability at converting from the 2-yd line, and I won't be surprised if they engage in more 2 pt attempts. The other teams then will be forced to try just to keep up. I sense we will certainly see an uptick in the 2-PT attempts

[merryjman]

Since the E of the 2-pt conversion is higher than then E of the Field Goal kick, there is indeed a statistical incentive for the 2-pt conversion. Unsure why Urschel disagrees.

 

The key is Urschel's use of the word "significant" here. He wrote that scoring 0.958 points per 2pt attempt versus 0.928 points per PAT attempt; i.e. a 3 percent difference, is not a significant difference. In statistics, the word "significant" carries a special connotation, tied to the definitions of mean and of standard deviation.

 

And of course those numbers he used are NFL-wide averages, so they would change on a team-by-team basis. In the case of the Ravens, for example, the second number is currently 1.0 points per PAT, since Tucker has never missed a FG below 33 yards. So if our goal line offense is comparable to the NFL average, and if Tucker's future performance is consistent with his past, then it would statistically make sense for us to always take the PAT unless we were in a must-get-2-to-win situation.

[The Greek]

once ngata and rices $$ is off the books next season plus flacco restructuring we should be in descent shape next season especially if the cap # goes up as well

[hen826957]

We would have over 27 million in cap space if it wasn't any dead money WOW. That tells you that Ozzie is the best in the business. Hope Ozzie get at least either Yanda or K.O. done least one of them this year because next year if how it plans out we would have a lot of cap space that we didn't have in years plus if we could reduce Joe's cap number we could roughly have over 30 to 40 million in cap space going into next year image that. We could able to afford good players that hit free agency and such. Ozzie just good at organizing.

[ellicottraven]

Next year with dead money from Rice and Ngata as well as gone, all we need to do is carry an additional 14M of Joe's salary unless of course he does us a favor and renegotiates his deal.

[ravenwildman]

I don't think anybody will get too excited about the new point after kicking distance.....until one of the "darling teams" misses one and loses a crucial game. If it's the Patriots.....look for the rule to change back! LOL GO RAVENS!

[rmcjacket23]

Just for some perspective...

The Ravens currently have around $125M in players under contract for 2016. That means, if you assume that the salary cap would be around $160M (probably a bit aggressive), we could have as much as $35M in cap space.

Keep in mind, though, that there's a significant list of players who would become UFAs in 2016: Yanda, Osemele, Koch, Tucker, Upshaw, Asa Jackson. Also guys like Will Hill, etc. are technically FAs.

If you were to retain even 2-3 of those players, you could be looking at cutting that cap space in half. Granted, there's plenty of players that could be released and cap space created from those moves, but I don't anticipate the Ravens legitimately having $30-$40M in cap space to play around with. I'd expect it to be closer to half of that.

[Dorota]

I'm really really hoping that Marshall Yanda signs an extension and gets to stay here. However, he is the one player, that can afford not to take a bargain, because anyone in the NFL is smart enough to figure out they need him. So if he wants the money, he will get the money. Just not here... Maybe Miami can pull out cash out of their rear end. Not sure how they get to do it to make splash "I robbed the bank and now I'm reckless" signings a la Suh or Tannerhill's new contract, but I guess that's where money is sat or some other desperate team.

[January J]

Just for some perspective... The Ravens currently have around $125M in players under contract for 2016. That means, if you assume that the salary cap would be around $160M (probably a bit aggressive), we could have as much as $35M in cap space. Keep in mind, though, that there's a significant list of players who would become UFAs in 2016: Yanda, Osemele, Koch, Tucker, Upshaw, Asa Jackson. Also guys like Will Hill, etc. are technically FAs. If you were to retain even 2-3 of those players, you could be looking at cutting that cap space in half. Granted, there's plenty of players that could be released and cap space created from those moves, but I don't anticipate the Ravens legitimately having $30-$40M in cap space to play around with. I'd expect it to be closer to half of that.   

which wouldnt be too bad considering.

Edited May 21, 2015 by January J

[rmcjacket23]

which wouldnt be too bad considering.

Correct, it wouldn't. Its certainly a better position than we are used to.

 

Though I'd caution that I still think that ranks us around 20th in the league right now in cap space, so while to us it seems like a gigantic sum where we could buy some significant players, there's plenty of teams ahead of us in that regard, and many of them are significantly ahead.

[riseNConquer81]

Yanda is the best lineman in the league. Baffles me when people around here talk about lettin him walk and focusing on K.O. smh

[gkro]

Will Hill is "champing" at the bit, not "chomping."

Thanks.

[hen826957]

@riseNConquer well I thought Yanda is more important than K.O. but to come to think about it if I had to choose between K.O. and Yanda I think I've choose K.O. because of his age and could help us in a long run then Yanda but I hope Ozzie find a way to keep both as well as Tucker.