Cap Situation-Struggles and Updates

[Ravenseconbeast]

I think there was sort of an emotional overreaction to Pitta to be honest. The timing of his signing worked out perfectly for him... we cut Boldin the prior season, Joe had nobody to throw to all year when Pitta was hurt, and everybody on the planet knew we needed to find a possession receiver somewhere. He was the most logical choice.

Hindsight is a great thing. Everybody thinks now that was inevitable he would dislocate his hip again, but nobody thought that when the deal was signed.

As I've reference numerous times... a lot of the bad contracts that people are complaining about now were universally praised by most when they were handed out. Ironically, its deals like Flacco's deal, who people have been bashing for years now, actually seem quite reasonable and accurate given the current NFL landscape now.

What is so 'accurate' about flaccos contract?

His contract needs to be restructured. We gave him that deal bc we had no choice.

Go read what he is due year by year and get back to me. Thx

[drdoub]

Great article. This just reinforces the need for the ravens to build a wr corp through the draft and not over pay in free agency. We need receivers who play like ravens and fit our system.

We have a 4 year window where we can be annual threats to go to the Super Bowl. After 4-5 years our core players like Suggs, ngata, doom, yanda, will be retiring. We Need a good off season

[rmcjacket23]

What is so 'accurate' about flaccos contract?

His contract needs to be restructured. We gave him that deal bc we had no choice.

Go read what he is due year by year and get back to me. Thx

1. Because compared to his peers, his salary cap hit has been incredibly beneficial to the Ravens for essentially the last seven years AND this one. Eight straight seasons at what essentially is a mid tier or lower salary cap hit for QBs in the modern era is great.

 

2. If you actually see what JOE makes/is scheduled to make each season, it breaks down like this...

 

2013: $30M

2014: $21M

2015: $11M (this is the funniest part... you want him to restructure in a year where he is by far making the least)

2016: $18M

2017: $20.6M

2018: $20M

 

3. Lets be honest here... people that want Joe to "restructure" don't really want him to restructure... they want him to take a paycut. You wouldn't do it yourself in real life, and it won't happen here either, but it makes fans feel better about themselves.

 

A restructure itself doesn't cost Flacco any money at all. In fact, most of the times, it takes non-guaranteed money, guarantees it, and spreads it out longer. So now, you want a lower cap hit in 2015 for a guaranteed much higher cap hit in 2017, 2018, etc, which is also amusing, because he has ZERO guaranteed money due to him left on his contract right now, so under your advice, he actually gets MORE guaranteed money. Not very good business.

 

There is no restructure coming in 2015.

[Ravenseconbeast]

1. Because compared to his peers, his salary cap hit has been incredibly beneficial to the Ravens for essentially the last seven years AND this one. Eight straight seasons at what essentially is a mid tier or lower salary cap hit for QBs in the modern era is great.

2. If you actually see what JOE makes/is scheduled to make each season, it breaks down like this...

2013: $30M

2014: $21M

2015: $11M (this is the funniest part... you want him to restructure in a year where he is by far making the least)

2016: $18M

2017: $20.6M

2018: $20M

3. Lets be honest here... people that want Joe to "restructure" don't really want him to restructure... they want him to take a paycut. You wouldn't do it yourself in real life, and it won't happen here either, but it makes fans feel better about themselves.

A restructure itself doesn't cost Flacco any money at all. In fact, most of the times, it takes non-guaranteed money, guarantees it, and spreads it out longer. So now, you want a lower cap hit in 2015 for a guaranteed much higher cap hit in 2017, 2018, etc, which is also amusing, because he has ZERO guaranteed money due to him left on his contract right now, so under your advice, he actually gets MORE guaranteed money. Not very good business.

There is no restructure coming in 2015.

When did I say lower his cap @2015?

Find that quote for me pls

[rmcjacket23]

When did I say lower his cap @2015?

Find that quote for me pls

Whats the point of talking about a restructure in 2015 when its not happening that year?

 

You mean the whole time you've been stating the complete obvious that in 2016 his contract needs to be extended? Duh. His agent said that the same week he signed it two years ago. That's now news.

 

If, like most people, you freaked out thinking $20M a year on average was too much for a QB, given the current landscape of the NFL and what QBs who have accomplished less are getting, that makes the deal look quite accurate, as I said earlier. What looked like a bad deal two years ago will look incredibly reasonable in about 3 months...

[CalvinSmoke]

The ravens take care of their players and they play hard for their team. can't fault them for that

[balfan23]

No doubt, our current cap situation is in part set up by a few pretty bad contracts. Some want to blame the FO for these contracts, some want to blame bad luck ... but I think we've got a pretty decent combination of both going on. IMO, the most troubling contracts we have (or had) are Rice, Webb and Pitta. Personally, I think 2 of these 3 are on the FO. 

 

Rice, because the team just wasn't with the times to understand you just can't give RBs with significant wear on the treads a big long term deal. Even had he not crashed and burned off the field, I think we'd have been regretting this deal.

 

Pitta, because we went into negotiations knowing the risks and didn't adequately establish a contract with any sort of contingency for a recurrence of his injury. Who knows ... perhaps all will work out, but the signs do not point to that being the case.

 

Webb - that one I'll put on bad luck. True, you could argue that he hadn't shown enough for a long enough period of time, but he was truly an asset and we couldn't risk having him snatched away. Can you imagine the howling if we'd let someone else grab him and he didn't get hurt? 

 

Some will want to include Ngata here ... but having vets who aren't worth their cap in the final year isn't a situation unique to the Ravens. For all of those who cry that we need to keep McPhee ... if we sign him now, we'll likely be having that same conversation about him in 4 or 5 years. It's just the way it goes. 

[Wildabeast88]

One reason were always cap strapped is because we're horrible with contract negotiations.A guy like Webb had one breakout year and we paid him $10M+ per season which is Sherman and Revis type of money.We haven't gotten anything close to that 2011 season after giving him that money.He's always injured,he's lost a large amount of his speed and he's too short to cover the big elite WR's in the league.Then on top of all that we don't have leverage to fix it because we'd save very little cap if we cut him.Situations like that where you don't give yourself an out until the final year are why we always seem to lose so many of our younger talents.

When Webb Got that deal he was ranked as a top 3 CB just behind Revis then he got hurt in theory it wasn't bad the time it just didn't quite work out. He did start playing better towards the end of the season but we do need to restructure his deal to save some money but also don't forget in college he was a FS so worst case scenario he could move into that role.

[Wildabeast88]

Maybe I can shed some insight here. The Cap isn't as gloom as others have led you to believe. Don't trust the websites that strictly give a definitive number or claim the Ravens don't have enough room to maneuver with in Free Agency. 3 areas to watch in the upcoming months where the Ravens can manipulate big cap savings.

 

 

2.) Several veteran contracts whose cap numbers don't warrant a roster spot at their current salary (Canty, Jones, Koch). If all 3 were released, it would be a cap savings of $7.5M+

 

3.) Then there are the bubble players, for instance Gino Gradkowski and Albert McClellan; who may not even make the roster at all, especially given their roles and contracts. Releasing just those two players would create an additional $2M in salary cap space.

 

The only catch is Jones will only save money if he is a post June1 cut according to overthecap.com overall I agree with our assessment

[B-more Ravor]

 

Not how it works. Only the top 51 salaries are counted against the cap. Remember the Ravens can have up to 90 players on the roster leading into training camp. ERFA (exclusive rights free agents) have tender amounts that are around $400k-600k depending on how many accrued seasons they've earned. With that in mind, if the 51st highest salary on our roster is worth $600k..then for example, all of our exclusive rights free agents theoretically wouldn't be held against the salary cap. The Ravens ERFA's include: Brynden Trawick, Kevin McDermott, Rashaan Melvin, Kamar Aiken, Ryan Jensen, Steven Means, Philip Supernaw, Tramain Jacobs, Patrick Scales, Fitz Toussaint, Casey Walker...none of whom would apply to our cap in this scenario.

 

This also applies to future draft pick signings whose rookie salaries fall below that 51st benchmark. Let's do a bit of tricky math to understand how adding a higher salary than the top 51st player works.

 

 

This is correct, as far as how the Rule of 51 works, but there would presently be 5 ERFAs making $585K that would count amongst the top 51.

 

 

 

 

2.) Several veteran contracts whose cap numbers don't warrant a roster spot at their current salary (Canty, Jones, Koch). If all 3 were released, it would be a cap savings of $7.5M+

 

3.) Then there are the bubble players, for instance Gino Gradkowski and Albert McClellan; who may not even make the roster at all, especially given their roles and contracts. Releasing just those two players would create an additional $2M in salary cap space.

 

 

 

Now, you're playing a little fast and loose with the Rule of 51 because just as there's an offset for adding a player because of the rule of 51 (as you correctly pointed out above), there's also an offset when a player is removed, ie a new 51st player is added back to the calculation.  So, if the 5 above players were released, then 5 players making in the $510K range would have to be added back in.

 

Also, assuming a post-June 1 release designation for Jacoby Jones, the Cap savings in March  is not $2.5M, it's zero.  The Cap savings isn't realized until June 2nd.  That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it doesn't do them any good in March when the majority of the FA spending is going to occur.

 

 

Keep in mind this also works when offering veteran free agents minimum contracts. When we offered Owen Daniels a $1M contract last year he really only counted about $580K or so against the salary cap. If you take a hard look at our UFAs (unrestricted Free Agents) you'll notice a lot of them were on our roster last year for the veteran minimum. When we added Justin Forsett in the middle of free agency for example, he only counted $150K against the cap...even though his salary was vet minimum at $570K. Meaning it's not going to take a whole lot to retain most of these players....if we still want them back.

 

 

1.  Daniels signed a $1M contract that counted $1M.  He was not a MSB signing.

 

2.  Forsett was a MSB signing and his addition to the Cap was just a small blip on the Cap as far as how it changed the Cap space at the time (as you explained), but he did still count $570K against the Cap.  More importantly. though, all players do still count fully once the season starts - so even though the Rule of 51 impact may not be great, once the season starts, the 53-man roster, IR, PUP and PS count - and that's more than just to top 51.. 

[arnie_uk]

This is correct, as far as how the Rule of 51 works, but there would presently be 5 ERFAs making $585K that would count amongst the top 51.

Now, you're playing a little fast and loose with the Rule of 51 because just as there's an offset for adding a player because of the rule of 51 (as you correctly pointed out above), there's also an offset when a player is removed, ie a new 51st player is added back to the calculation. So, if the 5 above players were released, then 5 players making in the $510K range would have to be added back in.

Also, assuming a post-June 1 release designation for Jacoby Jones, the Cap savings in March is not $2.5M, it's zero. The Cap savings isn't realized until June 2nd. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it doesn't do them any good in March when the majority of the FA spending is going to occur.

1. Daniels signed a $1M contract that counted $1M. He was not a MSB signing.

2. Forsett was a MSB signing and his addition to the Cap was just a small blip on the Cap as far as how it changed the Cap space at the time (as you explained), but he did still count $570K against the Cap. More importantly. though, all players do still count fully once the season starts - so even though the Rule of 51 impact may not be great, once the season starts, the 53-man roster, IR, PUP and PS count - and that's more than just to top 51..

as I said above, defer all cap issues to this guy and ignore everything else or you will be going down the incorrect path.

[rmw10]

as I said above, defer all cap issues to this guy and ignore everything else or you will be going down the incorrect path.

 

Truth right here.  I like to think I have a pretty good idea of how the cap works, but Brian is far beyond what I know.

[0_o]

This is correct, as far as how the Rule of 51 works, but there would presently be 5 ERFAs making $585K that would count amongst the top 51.

 

Obviously the 51st player on the roster is going to be a minimum salary. What that figure is currently doesn't really matter. We're talking about cap pennies at this point. $400-600k is usually the range at 51. In general, when cap crunching, casual fans can roughly bump off $500k when a new player is added. Trying to be decimal point precise is pointless because it requires information that isn't accessible to bloggers. Basically ERFAs aren't even worth talking about when it comes to cap savings.

 

Now, you're playing a little fast and loose with the Rule of 51 

1.  Daniels signed a $1M contract that counted $1M.  He was not a MSB signing. 

 

 

We signed Owen in April...before his $1M contract was fully committed. He wasn't a minimum salary benefit recipient because he didn't receive a minimum salary but I agree there's an offset for adding a player because of the rule of 51. Which is why signing him at the time wasn't costly. 

 

More importantly. though, all players do still count fully once the season starts - so even though the Rule of 51 impact may not be great, once the season starts, the 53-man roster, IR, PUP and PS count - and that's more than just to top 51..

 

 

We're just generalizing about cap savings for the offseason. When August gets here we can speculate about what the final cap number will be. Point being, signing a vet minimum player to fill out our 90 isn't going to be as cap implicating as many bloggers allege. 

 

Which is a point that many fans like myself should consider when playing out their offseason fantasies

 

Also, assuming a post-June 1 release designation for Jacoby Jones, the Cap savings in March  is not $2.5M, it's zero.  The Cap savings isn't realized until June 2nd.  That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it doesn't do them any good in March when the majority of the FA spending is going to occur.

 

 

Yes, and as you surely know by now we're not heavy spenders in March. The gems we usually acquire are from the scrum of the bunch leading up to training camp. When it comes to Jacoby it's just a waiting game. We have the leverage to bump off ~1.5M for his services. If he doesn't want to restructure he'll have to settle with an exhausted FA market and we'll settle with an additional $2.5M in cap. 

 

The real savings will come from how the Haloti/Yanda/Webb negotiations transpire. But again, March is a long ways away and we're not as tight against the cap as some might believe ^_<

[B-more Ravor]

 

We're just generalizing about cap savings for the offseason. When August gets here we can speculate about what the final cap number will be. Point being, signing a vet minimum player to fill out our 90 isn't going to be as cap implicating as many bloggers allege. 

 

 

 

OK, well, I've never seen any blogger say that signing veterans to minimum deals is costly or has major Cap implications.  It's not those types of guys that most are wondering about.  It's about bringing in guys like SSSr, Zuttah, etc.

 

We signed Owen in April...before his $1M contract was fully committed.

 

 

Not sure what you exactly mean by this?  Daniels' $1M deal counted against the Cap immediately upon signing as he was amongst the top 51.  Yes, the impact of the signing was less than that because it kicked the 51st player out, but the $1M fully counted. 

 

Perhaps, this is where we aren't seeing eye to eye on things, in that "fully committed" and "cap impact" may be the same thing in the way you are using them.

 

He very much was fully committed at $1M upon signing, but the impact on the Cap was less.

 

Yes, and as you surely know by now we're not heavy spenders in March. The gems we usually acquire are from the scrum of the bunch leading up to training camp. When it comes to Jacoby it's just a waiting game. We have the leverage to bump off ~1.5M for his services. If he doesn't want to restructure he'll have to settle with an exhausted FA market and we'll settle with an additional $2.5M in cap. 

 

 

If they are going to release Jacoby, I don't think they wait until June 1st.  They'll likely release him in Feb/March with a post-June 1 designation.

 

The real savings will come from how the Haloti/Yanda/Webb negotiations transpire. But again, March is a long ways away and we're not as tight against the cap as some might believe ^_<

 

 

Sure, they'll do what they need to do to get under the Cap and create room.

 

The point is, though, that it's been more than a few years since they actually had to make moves just to get under the Cap.  Over the past couple of years, they had space to start with, even after tendering their ERFA and RFAs.  This year, they've got work to do just to get there.  So, there is definitely a difference this year.

[rmw10]

This year is definitely tighter than normal.  Luckily, we do have a few contracts that would clear up some space to get us under and make a couple of moves at the least.  It's another year where we shouldn't be expecting anything big though.  When it's all said and done, I'd expect 1-2 mid tier types of FA and maybe 2-3 veterans for cheap deals at the minimum or slightly above.

[ravensdan]

There's nothing wrong with what this teamis doing. They will move things around to create as much cap space as we need each year. The whole thing is set up with a long term vision and plan. It's not just one year in the experts eyes. We won't this year nor we will ever build the team through free agency. That never ever works. We will bring in the right players at the right price to supplement the core built through the draft. If the right player becomes available there is always a way. As years go on we can always guarantee flacco more money and clear up some cap. That's how the big QB contracts work long term.

[0_o]

 So, there is definitely a difference this year.

 

The difference being there really aren't any glaring gaps that need to be filled immediately or any major UFA's that will cripple us if we're unable to extend. Aside from securing our secondary with depth, our roster will be vastly improved next season just from the return of IR players alone. If we want a player bad enough we'll create the cap room. If there still isn't enough we'll just waive our fingers and do a magic trick. Moriarty is the David Blane of executives.

 

We'll be in the mix this FA to add a premium player. The question is on which side? Offense or defense?

 

Someone should do a piece on the cap perks of a trade vs FA signing...

[Mt. Crushmore]

Don't understand why people still debate the cap and how it works, how much money we have etc.

Just read Brian Mcfarland

http://russellstreetreport.com/2015/02/06/baltimore-ravens-salary-cap/complete-ravens-salary-cap-update/

 

Yep.  Best resource on the Ravens cap.

[0_o]

Yep.  Best resource on the Ravens cap.

 

Those cap numbers are wrong. It appears the author failed to read the CBA correctly. 

 

Just stay tuned to the NFLPA's cap projection, tack on a couple mill, and then wait a week before Free Agency to get a truer sense of our cap situation. All the other speculation is just rhetoric and theories at this point. Plus how can you trust a guy who threw Pat Moriarty in prison? 

[Purple_ICE 81]

How come it seems that year after year we are always right up against the cap limit while teams with equal or better talent manage to have so much room?

If someone wants to break down our deals that would be nice. It sucks watching great players that Ozzie drafts in later rounds to be signed away after finally bursting out of their shell and reaching their prime.

We lose guys like Ellerbe, Jones, Graham and probably McPhee in free agency every year and still struggle to be under cap. I'm not fond of watching our talent being swept out from under us leaving our team with undrafted free agents and rookies still learning before getting picked off once they reach their potential.

We go through cap problems as an organization every year. This year is not much different. Soon we will start restructuring/extending/cutting players in order to save some money, we usually make a good effort every year to save money so we can make important off season moves. But at the end of the day this off season will probably be similar to the last couple offseasons...resign our own guys, a few might hit free agency. Target a few cheaper free agent options once the free agent frenzy dust settles, maybe the occasional low end trade every once In a while then look forward to the draft. One way or another Ozzie and company will ensure our team improves even with out investing multi-millions in free agency.

[B-more Ravor]

Those cap numbers are wrong. It appears the author failed to read the CBA correctly. 

 

Just stay tuned to the NFLPA's cap projection, tack on a couple mill, and then wait a week before Free Agency to get a truer sense of our cap situation. All the other speculation is just rhetoric and theories at this point. Plus how can you trust a guy who threw Pat Moriarty in prison? 

 

How so?  What part of the CBA was missed?  What numbers are wrong?

 

The projection is based on the NFL's present projection (an $8.8M increase over last year) - which is the only one out there at this time.  Could it go up more, sure, the article acknowledges that the NFL's projection last year was too low.  But, even if it goes up by $10M, they still are in a worse position then they've been in in years. 

 

So, how is that wrong?

[GrimCoconut]

How so? What part of the CBA was missed? What numbers are wrong?

The number is based on the NFL's present projection (an $8.8M increase over last year) - which is the only one out there at this time. Could it go up more, sure, the article acknowledges that the NFL's projection last year was too low. But, even if it goes up by $10M, they still are in a worse position then they've been in in years.

I read your article. I have some questions.

So if we have that much money in incentives, we can defer some of it. I'm sure the Ravens are unlikely to do all of it, maybe half, which we've done before.

So, I guess what I'm asking is what is the best case scenario for this team? What's the best case cap figure? I'd assume cutting Gino, Canty are going to happen at their cap figure. I also think we'll see the end of Ngata with a possible trade to a team like Oakland for him. I also think it's probably we'll extend Koch and reduce his cap hit. I also think Yanda is a guy we'll extend as well. I also believe we'll cut Jones, even if his money isn't available immediately.

Under those circumstances, what do you think is our best case cap space?

[berad]

I'm wondering what the pay-for-performance adjustments this year will be? Like, last year, I know Marlon Brown made a lot of money above his UDFA contract based on how much he played.

 

Guys like James Hurst, Zach Orr, Kamar Aiken, etc could stand to make some more money.

[B-more Ravor]

I'm wondering what the pay-for-performance adjustments this year will be? Like, last year, I know Marlon Brown made a lot of money above his UDFA contract based on how much he played.

 

Guys like James Hurst, Zach Orr, Kamar Aiken, etc could stand to make some more money.

 

 

I would think those guys would make a little bit, but none saw as much time as Marlon did in 2013.

 

The Performance-based pool is not part of a team's salary cap - it's part of the benefits - so whatever is paid has no effect on a team's Cap space.  It's essentially already been factored in when the league-wide salary Cap is determined.

[berad]

I would think those guys would makes a little bit, but none saw as much time as Marlon did in 2013.

 

The Performance-based pool is not part of a team's salary cap - it's part of the benefits - so whatever is paid has no effect on a team's Cap space.  It's essentially already been factored in when the league-wide salary Cap is determined.

 

That was the second part of my question - thank you!

[B-more Ravor]

I read your article. I have some questions.

So if we have that much money in incentives, we can defer some of it. I'm sure the Ravens are unlikely to do all of it, maybe half, which we've done before.

So, I guess what I'm asking is what is the best case scenario for this team? What's the best case cap figure? I'd assume cutting Gino, Canty are going to happen at their cap figure. I also think we'll see the end of Ngata with a possible trade to a team like Oakland for him. I also think it's probably we'll extend Koch and reduce his cap hit. I also think Yanda is a guy we'll extend as well. I also believe we'll cut Jones, even if his money isn't available immediately.

Under those circumstances, what do you think is our best case cap space?

 

 

There'd be Cap space created as follows:

 

1. Ngata trade/released - $8.5M (IMO, this will be an extension, which will be more like $5M saved)

2. Release of Gino and Canty - $1.574M + $2.66M

3.  Koch extension - ~$1M saved

4.  Yanda extension -  ~ $2M saved

 

So, that's $15.7M saved, less 3 Rule of 51 replacements for released/traded guys = ~$14M saved in March.

 

Then, it just depends on where the Cap ends up.  If it's $141.8, then deduct $5M from that savings.  If it's higher, then the reduction in the $14M is that much less (ie difference between Cap amount and the present $141.8M estimate).

 

Any savings from Jacoby will come post-June 1.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

1. Because compared to his peers, his salary cap hit has been incredibly beneficial to the Ravens for essentially the last seven years AND this one. Eight straight seasons at what essentially is a mid tier or lower salary cap hit for QBs in the modern era is great.

2. If you actually see what JOE makes/is scheduled to make each season, it breaks down like this...

2013: $30M

2014: $21M

2015: $11M (this is the funniest part... you want him to restructure in a year where he is by far making the least)

2016: $18M

2017: $20.6M

2018: $20M

3. Lets be honest here... people that want Joe to "restructure" don't really want him to restructure... they want him to take a paycut. You wouldn't do it yourself in real life, and it won't happen here either, but it makes fans feel better about themselves.

A restructure itself doesn't cost Flacco any money at all. In fact, most of the times, it takes non-guaranteed money, guarantees it, and spreads it out longer. So now, you want a lower cap hit in 2015 for a guaranteed much higher cap hit in 2017, 2018, etc, which is also amusing, because he has ZERO guaranteed money due to him left on his contract right now, so under your advice, he actually gets MORE guaranteed money. Not very good business.

There is no restructure coming in 2015.

Whether it's guaranteed or not, if you want him as your QB beyond 2015-2016 you need him to restructure.

We can't field a competitive team with a QB taking up $30 mill in cap space.

[rmcjacket23]

Whether it's guaranteed or not, if you want him as your QB beyond 2015-2016 you need him to restructure.

We can't field a competitive team with a QB taking up $30 mill in cap space.

That may be true, but keep in mind that much of this is dependent on what JOE wants to do, not what the Ravens want to do. He's under contract through 2018, and he knows that there's basically a 0% chance the Ravens would cut him after 2015, which means when 2016 comes around, he's got almost all of the leverage in negotiations.

 

A straight up restructuring accomplishes nothing, because it just lowers the 2016 cap number while increasing 2017/2018 significantly, therefore an extension is the only real option.

 

Given that Joe would already make $18M in 2016, any extension would more or likely require him to make more than that in 2016, basically by a combination of salary/bonus. That shouldn't be too hard to make happen, but then again, most didn't think it was going to be that hard for Joe to get a new deal prior to 2012 either, and the sides couldn't agree over basically $1M.

 

I'd expect an extension to happen, but I don't think its the slam dunk most people think it is.

[PurpleCity5]

I think that if we sign Maxwell, we'll probably designate Webb to a June 1st cut. 

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

That may be true, but keep in mind that much of this is dependent on what JOE wants to do, not what the Ravens want to do. He's under contract through 2018, and he knows that there's basically a 0% chance the Ravens would cut him after 2015, which means when 2016 comes around, he's got almost all of the leverage in negotiations.

 

A straight up restructuring accomplishes nothing, because it just lowers the 2016 cap number while increasing 2017/2018 significantly, therefore an extension is the only real option.

 

Given that Joe would already make $18M in 2016, any extension would more or likely require him to make more than that in 2016, basically by a combination of salary/bonus. That shouldn't be too hard to make happen, but then again, most didn't think it was going to be that hard for Joe to get a new deal prior to 2012 either, and the sides couldn't agree over basically $1M.

 

I'd expect an extension to happen, but I don't think its the slam dunk most people think it is.

 

Extension is the only answer... and I get what you're saying with it not being as easy as it looks on the surface and therefore not a slam dunk. But I think what most people take into account and why they think its a slam dunk is that Joe seems like the kind of guy that will work with the team a bit to open cap space to ensure they can put pieces around him.

 

So I could see an extension prior to 2017 to make it a new 5 yr deal, up the guaranteed money and reduce the avg. yearly salary. That way the Ravens can keep their QB with a lower cap hit, and Joe gets the security of more guaranteed cash.

 

I know there will be some difficulty landing on the number that works for both, but i think its a slam dunk that it gets done even if the ravens dont get quite the hometown discount some are expecting. He'll be reasonable without giving away the house.

 

I see an extension that keeps him in the $12-20mill cap hit sweet spot so you can afford to let him play it out without any additional extending/restructuring.