Timmy Jernigan

[rmw10]

you are probaly right.

 

i think cutting rice made it pretty much impossible to keep him at that number.

 

but im placing my bet on him getting an extension like suggs got.

 

I'm of that opinion as well.  I believe an extension is the top priority but they'll have no problem moving on if they can't agree on a price.

[ravensnick]

you are probaly right.

 

i think cutting rice made it pretty much impossible to keep him at that number.

 

but im placing my bet on him getting an extension like suggs got.

That's probably most likely.

[Tru11]

17 million dollar is too much for Ngata at this point. I'd have to look up the numbers, hut we would save a boatload.

 

we will save 8.5 mill but carry a 7.5 mil cap hit.

[GrimCoconut]

He always had quickness and good technique. Contrary to popular opinion, he was a god fit for a 3-4. I think we extend or trade ngata, as i'm sure Ozzie doesn't want 6 mil in dead money.

That's a question I've been silently wondering: can we even trade Ngata? He's talented but wherever we send him they'll likely have to pay his base salary and I'm sure that's not ideal. What would we even get for him? This is not rhetoric; I'm genuinely not quite sure on what his value would be. Maybe he'll be another Boldin and we only get a sixth round pick for him.

[rmcjacket23]

17 million dollar is too much for Ngata at this point. I'd have to look up the numbers, hut we would save a boatload.

1. He's not making $17M. His cap hit in 2015 is $16M, of which the Ravens will absorb $7.5M of that regardless of whether he is here or not. The cap savings is $8.5M.

 

2. As others have said, he's likely either getting cut or he's getting an extension at a lower cap number (most likely outcome in my opinion). I don't think he realistically stays on at his current cap number.

 

3. If there's one thing fans should have learned from this season, its that depth is important. If you decide to let Ngata go just because Jernigan is playing well, then by definition, you are losing some depth. You are an injury or two on the DL away from having secondary-level depth at the position.

 

I know people like to spout off all these names like KLM, Urban, etc., but those guys are both injured and have literally proven nothing in this league at this point, so I'm not going to be the kind of fan that just annoints them as quality depth. They could be Canty level players, or they could be Cody level players, and neither would surprise me nor should it surprise anybody.

 

I'm not saying we won't let Ngata walk, because I think its a possibility. But lets not pretend like the Ravens aren't going to at least attempt to re-sign him just because Timmy Jernigan has played two good football games against two bad offensive lines.

 

That's just classic fan overreaction.

[rmw10]

1. He's not making $17M. His cap hit in 2015 is $16M, of which the Ravens will absorb $7.5M of that regardless of whether he is here or not. The cap savings is $8.5M.

 

2. As others have said, he's likely either getting cut or he's getting an extension at a lower cap number (most likely outcome in my opinion). I don't think he realistically stays on at his current cap number.

 

3. If there's one thing fans should have learned from this season, its that depth is important. If you decide to let Ngata go just because Jernigan is playing well, then by definition, you are losing some depth. You are an injury or two on the DL away from having secondary-level depth at the position.

 

I know people like to spout off all these names like KLM, Urban, etc., but those guys are both injured and have literally proven nothing in this league at this point, so I'm not going to be the kind of fan that just annoints them as quality depth. They could be Canty level players, or they could be Cody level players, and neither would surprise me nor should it surprise anybody.

 

I'm not saying we won't let Ngata walk, because I think its a possibility. But lets not pretend like the Ravens aren't going to at least attempt to re-sign him just because Timmy Jernigan has played two good football games against two bad offensive lines.

 

That's just classic fan overreaction.

 

Technically, you are losing depth, but the savings can also be re-invested in someone else at a lower rate if we do choose to cut him.  We've found quality players like Redding and Canty at relative bargains for what they offer.  You can get a vet for depth and invest the rest of the money into another weakness.  It's a risk, but you gotta do what you gotta do to field the best team under a tight cap.

 

I'm with you at the end though.  I don't think the emergence of Jernigan means Ngata is gone.  It certainly makes it an easier decision if we can't agree on an extension, though.

[ravensnick]

That's a question I've been silently wondering: can we even trade Ngata? He's talented but wherever we send him they'll likely have to pay his base salary and I'm sure that's not ideal. What would we even get for him? This is not rhetoric; I'm genuinely not quite sure on what his value would be. Maybe he'll be another Boldin and we only get a sixth round pick for him.

That was the idea. He's only got a year left with a huge salary. get what you can, but focus on the cap space. Think we agree that getting rid of Boldin was worth get Doom, canty, and Daryl Smith

[redlobster]

Jernigan is a beast. The best D-Tackle in the 2014 draft and yes that includes Aaron Donald...

 

Donald also gets to play with studs surrounding him

[GrimCoconut]

That's another thing: Urban and Lewis-Moore have done nothing in the NFL. KLM has been injured in two seasons so far in as many years as he's been in the league. It's hard to rely on them. I really like Urban a lot but he's hurt and who knows if he'll retain his athleticism.

[GrimCoconut]

Technically, you are losing depth, but the savings can also be re-invested in someone else at a lower rate if we do choose to cut him. We've found quality players like Redding and Canty at relative bargains for what they offer. You can get a vet for depth and invest the rest of the money into another weakness. It's a risk, but you gotta do what you gotta do to field the best team under a tight cap.

I'm with you at the end though. I don't think the emergence of Jernigan means Ngata is gone. It certainly makes it an easier decision if we can't agree on an extension, though.

I really liked Redding when he was here and he's scheduled to be a free agent next year. I think if we cut Ngata he should be someone we try to sign. I also like what we've seen from Guy in his limited action.

[ravensnick]

1. He's not making $17M. His cap hit in 2015 is $16M, of which the Ravens will absorb $7.5M of that regardless of whether he is here or not. The cap savings is $8.5M.

 

2. As others have said, he's likely either getting cut or he's getting an extension at a lower cap number (most likely outcome in my opinion). I don't think he realistically stays on at his current cap number.

 

3. If there's one thing fans should have learned from this season, its that depth is important. If you decide to let Ngata go just because Jernigan is playing well, then by definition, you are losing some depth. You are an injury or two on the DL away from having secondary-level depth at the position.

 

I know people like to spout off all these names like KLM, Urban, etc., but those guys are both injured and have literally proven nothing in this league at this point, so I'm not going to be the kind of fan that just annoints them as quality depth. They could be Canty level players, or they could be Cody level players, and neither would surprise me nor should it surprise anybody.

 

I'm not saying we won't let Ngata walk, because I think its a possibility. But lets not pretend like the Ravens aren't going to at least attempt to re-sign him just because Timmy Jernigan has played two good football games against two bad offensive lines.

 

That's just classic fan overreaction.

We got Williams, Canty, and jernigan starting. It's not like we don't got starting level players. then we have Tyson, KLM, and Urban next year and maybe someone in the draft as backup. That is more than sufficent at d-line. Ngata is a huge amount of money in a position that we are increblily deep.

[beasy2487]

Love the way Jernigan is playing but I don't believe it has any real impact on Ngata's situation. Ngata already wasn't going to be playing at that cap number anyway, and he's not uprooting his family at this stage in his career...that's just not his personality. He will get extended, retire a Raven, and see his snaps on obvious passing downs start to decrease next year.

 

As others have stated, Jernigan's rise is more likely to force Canty out than Ngata. Given what we have in the wings with Urban, KLM, Tyson, and whomever we draft...I can't see Canty being around next year.

[Willbacker]

we will save 8.5 mill but carry a 7.5 mil cap hit.

And then to top that on Rice's 9.5 mil hit of dead money. 17 mil on 2 players. I see an extension.

[rmcjacket23]

Technically, you are losing depth, but the savings can also be re-invested in someone else at a lower rate if we do choose to cut him.  We've found quality players like Redding and Canty at relative bargains for what they offer.  You can get a vet for depth and invest the rest of the money into another weakness.  It's a risk, but you gotta do what you gotta do to field the best team under a tight cap.

 

I'm with you at the end though.  I don't think the emergence of Jernigan means Ngata is gone.  It certainly makes it an easier decision if we can't agree on an extension, though.

Theoretically, yes, but that also implies that you use that cap savings on adding depth. Perhaps that money instead goes towards signing Torrey/McPhee/Forsett/Tucker, etc., in which case we didn't add any depth at all. Or, it might even go towards an extension for other players, such as Jimmy.

 

If we work under the assumption that we will cut Canty in the offseason (which makes sense from a cap space/replacement value standpoint), and we don't retain Ngata, you are losing 2/3 of your starting defensive line. You are left with Brandon Williams (looks like a solid player), Jernigan (played well in two games) and a bunch of complete question marks on the D-line.

 

I would almost certainly bet that if we let Ngata walk, the FO will target DL early in the draft.

[Willbacker]

We got Williams, Canty, and jernigan starting. It's not like we don't got starting level players. then we have Tyson, KLM, and Urban next year and maybe someone in the draft as backup. That is more than sufficent at d-line. Ngata is a huge amount of money in a position that we are increblily deep.

KLM and Urban have not proven nothing yet. Our defensive backfield was deep at one time too.

[rmcjacket23]

And then to top that on Rice's 9.5 mil hit of dead money. 17 mil on 2 players. I see an extension.

Its a sunk cost though... there is no decision that the FO can make that can reduce that $17M cap hit for those two players.

 

Even if Ngata gets an extension, his cap number for next season would still have to be at least $7.5M, so that still needs to be recognized on any future contract too.

 

An extension for 2015 would probably only reduce Ngata's cap number by $5-6M or so in my opinion, which is significant, but its not like he's going to go from a $16M cap hit to a $5M cap hit. Even on a reasonably priced, team-friendly deal, he's still staring at a $10M cap number in 2015 probably.

 

Dead money is what it is... its dead. There is no decision that can be made that can change that.

 

So when people ask "is Ngata worth $16M a year", they are already asking the wrong question. What they should be asking is "is Ngata worth $8.5M a year", because that's the actual amount he would be paid in 2015 AND its the relevant amount that a team will use to judge his value.

[rmw10]

Theoretically, yes, but that also implies that you use that cap savings on adding depth. Perhaps that money instead goes towards signing Torrey/McPhee/Forsett/Tucker, etc., in which case we didn't add any depth at all. Or, it might even go towards an extension for other players, such as Jimmy.

 

If we work under the assumption that we will cut Canty in the offseason (which makes sense from a cap space/replacement value standpoint), and we don't retain Ngata, you are losing 2/3 of your starting defensive line. You are left with Brandon Williams (looks like a solid player), Jernigan (played well in two games) and a bunch of complete question marks on the D-line.

 

I would almost certainly bet that if we let Ngata walk, the FO will target DL early in the draft.

 

And that's true as well.  I can't imagine a scenario where we cut Ngata and Canty and don't use some of that money to add some veteran depth on the DL, though.

 

I will say though, if there's one position that I'd be confident in a "lack of depth" per se, it would be the DL.  We routinely find capable players off the scrap heaps and we develop late rounders like no other.  I'm not saying that I'd like to enter the season with little depth there of course, but we do incredibly well at turning cheap additions into viable options there.

[Willbacker]

Theoretically, yes, but that also implies that you use that cap savings on adding depth. Perhaps that money instead goes towards signing Torrey/McPhee/Forsett/Tucker, etc., in which case we didn't add any depth at all. Or, it might even go towards an extension for other players, such as Jimmy.

 

If we work under the assumption that we will cut Canty in the offseason (which makes sense from a cap space/replacement value standpoint), and we don't retain Ngata, you are losing 2/3 of your starting defensive line. You are left with Brandon Williams (looks like a solid player), Jernigan (played well in two games) and a bunch of complete question marks on the D-line.

 

I would almost certainly bet that if we let Ngata walk, the FO will target DL early in the draft.

The funny thing is everytime we think that the FO does something diffrent but losing both is a little much.

[Willbacker]

Its a sunk cost though... there is no decision that the FO can make that can reduce that $17M cap hit for those two players.

 

Even if Ngata gets an extension, his cap number for next season would still have to be at least $7.5M, so that still needs to be recognized on any future contract too.

 

An extension for 2015 would probably only reduce Ngata's cap number by $5-6M or so in my opinion, which is significant, but its not like he's going to go from a $16M cap hit to a $5M cap hit. Even on a reasonably priced, team-friendly deal, he's still staring at a $10M cap number in 2015 probably.

 

Dead money is what it is... its dead. There is no decision that can be made that can change that.

 

So when people ask "is Ngata worth $16M a year", they are already asking the wrong question. What they should be asking is "is Ngata worth $8.5M a year", because that's the actual amount he would be paid in 2015 AND its the relevant amount that a team will use to judge his value.

Very true statement. Overlooked it. I'm just hoping it's not another 5 yr deal like Sugg's .

[tolucaraven]

Comes down to realocation of resources to fill weak spots. Thank GOD Oline is good and locked up. 

[Tru11]

rmcjacket23, on 15 Dec 2014 - 6:11 PM, said:

Its a sunk cost though... there is no decision that the FO can make that can reduce that $17M cap hit for those two players.

 

Even if Ngata gets an extension, his cap number for next season would still have to be at least $7.5M, so that still needs to be recognized on any future contract too.

 

An extension for 2015 would probably only reduce Ngata's cap number by $5-6M or so in my opinion, which is significant, but its not like he's going to go from a $16M cap hit to a $5M cap hit. Even on a reasonably priced, team-friendly deal, he's still staring at a $10M cap number in 2015 probably.

 

Dead money is what it is... its dead. There is no decision that can be made that can change that.

 

So when people ask "is Ngata worth $16M a year", they are already asking the wrong question. What they should be asking is "is Ngata worth $8.5M a year", because that's the actual amount he would be paid in 2015 AND its the relevant amount that a team will use to judge his value.

 

he is worth the 8,5 to me but i hope he would reduce it to around 3 mil orso if possible.

 

wishfull thinking lol

[rmw10]

Ignore this.  I was wrong.

[GrimCoconut]

One of Canty or Ngata is getting cut, IMO, next off-season. The question is who. I doubt both get cut. Ngata has more trade value and saves more money, but he's Haloti Ngata. Canty is older and has been ineffective at times this year and even last. He's very mixed and I'm not sure he's a great guy to keep around, but he's cheap. I guess if you want to roll the dice and see what happens, you can, since we do develop DL prospects very well. Brooks is a terrific and very very underrated coach (Of which I am VERY happy). We could also re-sign Cody if we really wanted, who actually looked good last year as a role player from what I recall when I watched games. 

 

I also still like Redding, as I said previously, as an option to sign in free agency if we let Ngata or Canty go. I still think he plays pretty well and I doubt the Colts re-sign him after spending on Arthur Jones. 

[rmcjacket23]

If you extend Ngata, you're probably looking at a $8.5M cap hit with a $7.5M cap savings in year 1, which would be huge.  The Ravens are big fans of the $1M base salary in year 1 and I can't imagine this would be any different.

Yes, but the $1M base salary generally comes after a decent or sometimes large signing bonus. With the signing bonus, its pro-rated over the life of the contract.

 

A player isn't going to agree to a low base salary unless he's already getting a decent signing bonus. Flacco had a $1M base salary in 2013, but that's also because he received a $29M signing bonus. So although is salary was $1M, he actually made $30M that season, and his cap number was a little over $6M I believe.

 

Suggs was the same way... $1M base salary in year 1... AFTER he got an $11M signing bonus. It's why he still carried an almost $8M cap number this season, even though his base salary was $1M.

 

As I said earlier, even with an extension, I'd still expect a $10-12M cap number for Ngata in 2015. It should reduce somewhat after that.

[rmw10]

Yes, but the $1M base salary generally comes after a decent or sometimes large signing bonus. With the signing bonus, its pro-rated over the life of the contract.

 

A player isn't going to agree to a low base salary unless he's already getting a decent signing bonus. Flacco had a $1M base salary in 2013, but that's also because he received a $29M signing bonus. So although is salary was $1M, he actually made $30M that season, and his cap number was a little over $6M I believe.

 

Suggs was the same way... $1M base salary in year 1... AFTER he got an $11M signing bonus. It's why he still carried an almost $8M cap number this season, even though his base salary was $1M.

 

As I said earlier, even with an extension, I'd still expect a $10-12M cap number for Ngata in 2015. It should reduce somewhat after that.

 

Yep you're correct there.  That's my bad.  Still a whole hell of a lot of money for an aging DL.  Assuming he gets something similar to Suggs, you'd be looking at that $8.5M I quoted incorrectly plus $2-2.5M in the prorated bonus.

[rmw10]

Pauly S. ‏@thenflanalyst  1m1 minute ago

On a per snap basis, Timmy Jernigan has graded as the best 3-4 DE according to @PFF. By a LOT. Another feather in Ozzie's cap.

[rmcjacket23]

Yep you're correct there.  That's my bad.  Still a whole hell of a lot of money for an aging DL.  Assuming he gets something similar to Suggs, you'd be looking at that $8.5M I quoted incorrectly plus $2-2.5M in the prorated bonus.

Yeah, and if I'm the Ravens, with contracts like these (committing to a clearly past-prime veteran), I'm probably trying to make the cap hit which up with production as much as possible. In that case, its actually smarter to have a bigger cap hit in the short-term vs the long-term.

 

There's nothing worse than having an aging veteran player who clearly doesn't play at a starting caliber level anymore AND he has a large cap hit with minimal cap savings coming from releasing him. The franchise is just handcuffed at that point.

 

In my opinion, its that potential logic that could possibly prevent the franchise from signing him long term.

[757RavensFan]

While I don't think you cut Ngata at all, Jernigans and Williams recent play gives Ozzie and crew more leverage when it comes to Ngata's contract.

[PurpleCity5]

I wasn't mad when Ozzie picked him because this was a typical Ozzie pick, BPA. I had no expression, head he was beasting at camp, now I'm totally hyped about him. 

 

Depth at the Dline, wish this existed in the secondary. 

[PurpleCity5]

I actually didn't want to use the word, "force". I wanted to use a different word; but, I don't know... I forgot what it was, already. Anyways, that's beside the point.

 

As for Ngata's future with the team, even if the Ravens and Ngata were able to agree to a restructured contract, Ngata's new yearly salary (obviously) would still be greater than the rookie deal Jernigan has. And, since Baltimore would be paying Ngata that much, it's kind of a given that he's still going to be the defensive tackle who sees the majority of the snaps.

 

EDIT: So, basically, I'm just saying: Is it even necessary to restructure Ngata's contract? I love the guy; but, when the successor comes-in and is already playing at a high-level, why not try-and-save cap room?

If you really want to cut Ngata, you'd have to look at the dead money that would be there. I'm not sure if it would be worth it.