Red Zone Offense Through The Years

[callahan09]

After doing a bit of research, I have come to the conclusion that we're looking at a mediocre red zone offense this season... and that this is actually a huge breath of fresh air compared to what we're used to!

 

Here is a three way comparison (I don't start with franchise history, but rather with 1998 because that is as far back as the stats go at my source):

 

Since 1998

 

Highest run vs pass ratio, by far (56.1%, league average is 50.1%)

3rd lowest yards per play (2.69, league average is 2.91)

Lowest first down rate (per play), by a huge amount (25.3%, league average is 29.2%)

Lowest touchdown rate (per drive), by a wide margin (46.9%, league average is 53.7%)

 

Since 2008 (Flacco/Harbaugh Era)

 

2nd highest run vs pass ratio (55.3%, league average is 48.0%)

2nd lowest yards per play (2.64, league average is 2.94)

3rd lowest first down rate (26.7%, league average is 29.6%)

6th lowest touchdown rate (51.6%, league average is 56.8%)

 

2014 (Kubiak Era)

 

8th highest run vs pass ratio (52.2%, league average is 46.8%)

14th lowest yards per play (2.87, league average is 2.98)

3rd lowest first down rate (24.6%, league average is 30.4%)

13th lowest touchdown rate (54.3%, league average is 56.5%)

 

My Thoughts

 

As a franchise, we have always been *atrocious* in the red zone.  Look at those stats since 2008!  It's crazy how we are worst in the league in 3 out of the 4 stats.

 

Since the beginning of the Flacco/Harbaugh era, we have only very slightly improved in each area except for yards per play, where we have actually gotten worse.  We are quite a bit better in scoring touchdowns per drive in this era, but we're still near the bottom of the league.

 

Under Kubiak, we are finally starting to creep up the lists a little bit in most cases.  We're still horrible at getting first downs once we're in the red zone, in fact this particular split is worse under Kubiak than it is under the general Flacco/Harbaugh era, or under the franchise history [and keep in mind that each tier includes the stats of the tiers below it, so the Kubiak era is included in the Flacco/Harbaugh era, which is included in the franchise history era].

 

But this year we're actually middle of the road and almost average in yards per play and touchdown percentage once we are in the red zone.  We are still pretty heavily skewed towards running the ball in the red zone, while since 1998 the rest of the league has drastically shifted towards more passing in the red zone.  For whatever reason, we are just bad at gaining first downs in the red zone.  Once we get in the red zone, it's usually stalling out the drive there.

 

We are 6th best in first down rate outside of the red zone, but once we get into the red zone, we become 3rd worst, for whatever reason.

 

My personal thoughts are that we just don't have the big bodied, athletic freaks that other teams have, so we don't have those red zone targets.  Guys who can get up high and bring in passes, or guys who just generate tons of separation even in limited space, and guys who are athletic enough to make tough catches and bring them down in-bounds (sometimes having to tip-toe the line to stay in).  Who do we have that provides those kind of services as a target for Joe?  Without one, it's no wonder we run more than we pass in the red zone, and it's no wonder we often stall out when the field gets shorter.  Today's NFL almost requires those kind of targets in order to have red zone success... everybody is throwing balls up to those guys, not pounding the rock, once inside the 20.  Our way is the way of the dodo.  We need the personnel on offense to be able to compete with the direction the rest of the league has been going for the past 8 or 10 years or so.

 

Sources: Pro Football Reference *Game Play Finder* and *Drive Finder* tools.

[The Raven]

Red zone offense is about size and physicality. Speed and athleticism aren't really factors inside the 10. I do prefer running the ball within the 5 because there's just no room for routes. Our offensive line is fine, overall, but Zuttah and Monroe aren't the strongest or nastiest fellas. That hurts the run game in the RZ.

 

Passing the ball, like you said, also requires size. It also requires a little bit of nasty to go fight for the ball. We don't have a lot of that on our team.

 

On a related note, I'm baffled by the lack of Crockett Gilmore in the red zone. He's 6'6 260 and catches most passes. Give him a shot there. Hell, try Juice there out of the slot or something. We need to use our size more.

[GrimCoconut]

Hasn't Kubiak constantly fielded mediocre red zone offenses?

[callahan09]

Hasn't Kubiak constantly fielded mediocre red zone offenses?

Not sure, haven't looked into it.  I might go take a peek.

[The Raven]

Hasn't Kubiak constantly fielded mediocre red zone offenses?

 

Yes, he has. However, correlation does not prove causation, as you know. I think he's just always been limited, to a degree, by his personnel. He's never had an offensive line that was big, strong, and nasty all around. As good as that Chris Myers guy is, his size does not help him on the goalline.

 

It's odd that Kubiak struggles in the RZ since his system is seemingly perfect for short yardage. Run heavy, play action, and short timing patterns. Seems to indicate that personnel is the issue.

[GrimCoconut]

Yes, he has. However, correlation does not prove causation, as you know. I think he's just always been limited, to a degree, by his personnel. He's never had an offensive line that was big, strong, and nasty all around. As good as that Chris Myers guy is, his size does not help him on the goalline.

It's odd that Kubiak struggles in the RZ since his system is seemingly perfect for short yardage. Run heavy, play action, and short timing patterns. Seems to indicate that personnel is the issue.

Oh it wasn't rhetoric. I was genuinely asking because I felt like I remembered reading he has struggles the red zone. I do agree on personnel to an extent though.

[The Raven]

Oh it wasn't rhetoric. I was genuinely asking because I felt like I remembered reading he has struggles the red zone. I do agree on personnel to an extent though.

 

Yeah, the number one complaint I heard from Texan fans was red zone problems.

[ratedr]

I really don't know why we're so consistently bad in short yardage.

[arnie_uk]

I really don't know why we're so consistently bad in short yardage.

teams scheme to stop tbe run which we do more than most in those situations.

[callahan09]

Hasn't Kubiak constantly fielded mediocre red zone offenses?

 

 

Not sure, haven't looked into it.  I might go take a peek.

A quick peek reveals the following:

 

From 2006-2013, Houston Texans red zone statistics:

 

53.8% run vs pass ratio (league average is 48.9%)

11th best yards per play (2.95, league average is 2.95)

8th best first down rate (30.7%, league average is 29.4%)

11th best touchdown rate per drive (55.0%,, league average is 54.4%)

 

I guess that's mediocre.  Certainly on the above average side of mediocre... really it's close to top 10 in all 3 of the major stat areas.  It's more run heavy than average by a big margin, though.  Each and every one of those stats is a humongous improvement over the Ravens over that span of time, where they are ranked at or near the bottom in all categories and were even more run-heavy.

[757RavensFan]

One of many reasons over the past few years regarding redzone inefficiency is using a small back like Rice/Forsett to try and pound it in from within the 5 yard line.  That's why its bothersome to me that you have a back like Taliaferro who very rarely loses yardage sitting on the bench. 

[rmcjacket23]

One of many reasons over the past few years regarding redzone inefficiency is using a small back like Rice/Forsett to try and pound it in from within the 5 yard line.  That's why its bothersome to me that you have a back like Taliaferro who very rarely loses yardage sitting on the bench. 

Well, based on what we've seen this season, Taliaferro really isn't a great short yardage back. I think he's perceived that way by the fanbase because of his size, but his production doesn't exactly match.

 

In terms of red zone carries, here's the breakdown...

 

Forsett: 30 carries, 106 yards, 3.5 YPC, 6 TDs

Taliaferro: 14 carries, 36 yards, 2.6 YPC, 4 TDs

Pierce: 15 carries, 23 yards, 1.5 YPC, 2 TDs

 

For what its worth also, I can recall at least two times this season where LT got the call on 3rd and 1 and either gained no yardage or lost yardage.

 

From what I've seen so far, size is the only reason people think LT should be a good short yardage back, but it hasn't actually translated into better production than Forsett.

[757RavensFan]

Well, based on what we've seen this season, Taliaferro really isn't a great short yardage back. I think he's perceived that way by the fanbase because of his size, but his production doesn't exactly match.

 

In terms of red zone carries, here's the breakdown...

 

Forsett: 30 carries, 106 yards, 3.5 YPC, 6 TDs

Taliaferro: 14 carries, 36 yards, 2.6 YPC, 4 TDs

Pierce: 15 carries, 23 yards, 1.5 YPC, 2 TDs

 

For what its worth also, I can recall at least two times this season where LT got the call on 3rd and 1 and either gained no yardage or lost yardage.

 

From what I've seen so far, size is the only reason people think LT should be a good short yardage back, but it hasn't actually translated into better production than Forsett.

 

Do you have the breakdown of carries from within the 5 yard line? As you and I know the redzone is from the 20 and your numbers above don't specify where their rushing attempts started from.  I would like to know how effective LT was when he got the ball inside the 5 yard line like I originally stated. 

[Inqui]

Do you have the breakdown of carries from within the 5 yard line? As you and I know the redzone is from the 20 and in and your numbers above don't specify where their rushing attempts started from.  I would like to know how effective LT was when he got the ball inside the 5 yard line like I originally stated. 

Yeah, with no disrespect to Forsett a good chunk of those yards will have come from when he slipped the first tackle and foun daylight after receiving the ball at various points of the end zone. Where Taliaferro isn't anything to write home about in that regard.

 

But the carries to TD ratio interests me, especially with LT's yardage not being all that.

[BSHU_Miami]

Well we haven't had a legit Red Zone threat since Todd Heap. Pitta maybe could've brought up the rankings this year. But that limits it to the running game, and its easier to stop with an average size Oline. Add on to Joe sucking at the QB sneak (why don't we roll him out more I have no clue). Hell, we haven't even had a legit RZ RB since Willis McGahee

[757RavensFan]

Yeah, with no disrespect to Forsett a good chunk of those yards will have come from when he slipped the first tackle and foun daylight after receiving the ball at various points of the end zone. Where Taliaferro isn't anything to write home about in that regard.

 

But the carries to TD ratio interests me, especially with LT's yardage not being all that.

 

Agreed! That's telling me that LT gets the call when he's inside the 5 yard line as opposed to the 17 yard line. He also has a higher scoring percentage inside the redzone than Forsett, 29% to 20% respectively. 

[757RavensFan]

Well we haven't had a legit Red Zone threat since Todd Heap. Pitta maybe could've brought up the rankings this year. But that limits it to the running game, and its easier to stop with an average size Oline. Add on to Joe sucking at the QB sneak (why don't we roll him out more I have no clue). Hell, we haven't even had a legit RZ RB since Willis McGahee

 

 

I disagree w/ you on this.  Joe rarely throws for a TD when he rolls out in the redzone.  Being in the redzone already reduces  the area of coverage for the defense.  A designed roll out, makes a small area to cover even smaller. 

[AsianRice]

One of many reasons over the past few years regarding redzone inefficiency is using a small back like Rice/Forsett to try and pound it in from within the 5 yard line.  That's why its bothersome to me that you have a back like Taliaferro who very rarely loses yardage sitting on the bench. 

Ever since Taliaferro lost the fumble, he has been sitting on the bench cold.

 

Coach Kubiak sugar talked he will use him again but smoke without fire ever since.

 

I agree that we need to use more physical body in the red zone like big TE like Gilmore, strong backs like Pierce and Taliaferro, or tall WR Marlon Brown.

 

We are too scared to change up or something.....

[757RavensFan]

Ever since Taliaferro lost the fumble, he has been sitting on the bench cold.

 

Coach Kubiak sugar talked he will use him again but smoke without fire ever since.

 

I agree that we need to use more physical body in the red zone like big TE like Gilmore, strong backs like Pierce and Taliaferro, or tall WR Marlon Brown.

 

We are too scared to change up or something.....

 

No better way to kill a rookie's confidence by not letting him make up for his ONLY mistake so far this season. 

[BMORE_96]

We dont have athletic, big, strong receivers to throw to. Our offense this season is good because we have a good oline qb and forsett. Our receivers and tight ends are not spectacular enough to dominate in small spaces. I was initially hopeful we would gather more weapons in the draft but since the defense will be the reason we wont go to the super bowl this year. I will bet the house we go defense again in the draft.