Vent thread: Chargers

[beanfigger]

Blitzing and pressure are different things, something I don't think a lot of people get. If your qb is smart enough, you're putting your guys on the back end in a bad situation,especially if said qb is accurate Ala Rivers. Some people don't seem to realize how often we blitz and it doesn't work.

Correct. Blitzing doesn't just automatically equal pressure, especially when the receivers open up instantaneously and the QB can get the ball out right away.

[BmoreBird22]

Blitzing and pressure are different things, something I don't think a lot of people get. If your qb is smart enough, you're putting your guys on the back end in a bad situation,especially if said qb is accurate Ala Rivers. Some people don't seem to realize how often we blitz and it doesn't work.

Like I said, I think blitz efficiency verse number of plays blitzed would follow a bell curve. Just blitzing more and more is really going to begin to shred your defense

[Kid87]

we blew it

[GrimCoconut]

Like I said, I think blitz efficiency verse number of plays blitzed would follow a bell curve. Just blitzing more and more is really going to begin to shred your defense

Sounds like people want Pees to be more predictable to me. If you blitz half the downs then you have a serious problem where you can be gashed for points and yards. I think it's pretty clear that the secondary is the weak link considering that we did better in the red zone when we had Smith.

I don't have the stats, but I'm sure we still do better in the red zone with points. The safeties and CB are both very weak on this team. Hill is our best safety and I wouldn't call his play excellent, though it was very good.

[BmoreBird22]

Sounds like people want Pees to be more predictable to me. If you blitz half the downs then you have a serious problem where you can be gashed for points and yards. I think it's pretty clear that the secondary is the weak link considering that we did better in the red zone when we had Smith.

I don't have the stats, but I'm sure we still do better in the red zone with points. The safeties and CB are both very weak on this team. Hill is our best safety and I wouldn't call his play excellent, though it was very good.

And that's another thing: blitzing more creates predictability, which is why picking and choosing when to blitz is so important and extremely difficult. I think they've probably fallen off in the red zone some, but I'd imagine definitely top half of the league.

I think part of the issue with Hill is he's not the free safety type, either. I think he's done very well as a strong safety and in the nickel role against tight ends, but deep coverage still remains a concern and I really hope Brooks steps it up next year

[BSHU_Miami]

And that's another thing: blitzing more creates predictability, which is why picking and choosing when to blitz is so important and extremely difficult. I think they've probably fallen off in the red zone some, but I'd imagine definitely top half of the league.

I think part of the issue with Hill is he's not the free safety type, either. I think he's done very well as a strong safety and in the nickel role against tight ends, but deep coverage still remains a concern and I really hope Brooks steps it up next year

He needs to step it up now

[RaineV1]

He needs to step it up now

It's hard for him to step it up now if he's being kept on the bench behind guys that have played worse than him.

[BmoreBird22]

He needs to step it up now

Well, yes, that would be ideal, but I don't think that happens

[BmoreBird22]

It's hard for him to step it up now if he's being kept on the bench behind guys that have played worse than him.

Given that the Ravens have rotated in Elam, Miles, Stewart, and Hill as starters, it's just that he's not ready.

[Dewy101]

The problem is that every quarterback (well, maybe there's an exception or two, but I'd like to know who) are terrible under pressure. That's nothing new. You get a quarterback moving, get hands in his face, defenders on him so he can't set his feet, etc and it's going to lead to bad throws. Now, realize that Rivers tears up the blitz normally. I don't have a PFF subscription, but ESPN has him at a 70% completion percentage, 9 yards per attempt, 10 touchdowns, and only 1 interception. He actually improves his passed rating when you put more players on the LoS, having his best passed rating against the blitz. He's been sacked on only 6% of the throws he's been blitzed on, and that's not including plays where he ran, which will lower that percentage.

The Ravens may not have ran double A gap pressure, but they certainly ran a lot of stunts and loops to the inside all game long. It just wasn't working

That's exactly what Im trying so say it's the type of blitz that Pees was using that was ineffective. You exploit the worst player and it was obviously the 4th string center. Pees didn't do enough. Last season Gradkoswki would get killed with that double a gap blitz I'm convinced their 4th string center couldn't have been much better.

[GrimCoconut]

And that's another thing: blitzing more creates predictability, which is why picking and choosing when to blitz is so important and extremely difficult. I think they've probably fallen off in the red zone some, but I'd imagine definitely top half of the league.

I think part of the issue with Hill is he's not the free safety type, either. I think he's done very well as a strong safety and in the nickel role against tight ends, but deep coverage still remains a concern and I really hope Brooks steps it up next year

Yeah, that's the thing. If you blitz a lot then it becomes predictable and that's not good. If you expect a blitz, you'll get destroyed by a competent coordinator.

They've definitely fallen off in the red zone. I was saying that we're probably still better in the red zone than not. I still think that's where we're our best. I feel that's due to the short field which helps our weaker secondary.

I agree. I like Hill but I think he could be a terrific strong safety. I like Brooks better there as well at FS. I hope he improves. He's only a rookie so it's not like he's a bum for a few bad games.

[GrimCoconut]

As for you guys saying Brooks needs to step it up now, have any of you actually played CB or safety or been a hybrid DB in college or high school? It's not like you just walk on the field and play. It takes a lot of work to be a good secondary player and there's a reason why a lot of players take time to develop.

A safety is even harder to transition because they don't have to worry about one guy like a CB but need to survey the field and make reads. I know Brooks messed up on that interception but it happens. He probably had jitters, who knows. He wasn't known for his ball skills, but even in college he was in position to get the ball. That's a trait that continues to impress.

Give Brooks some time. No need to say he needs to step up when he's a rookie.

[ravensdfan]

As for you guys saying Brooks needs to step it up now, have any of you actually played CB or safety or been a hybrid DB in college or high school? It's not like you just walk on the field and play. It takes a lot of work to be a good secondary player and there's a reason why a lot of players take time to develop.

A safety is even harder to transition because they don't have to worry about one guy like a CB but need to survey the field and make reads. I know Brooks messed up on that interception but it happens. He probably had jitters, who knows. He wasn't known for his ball skills, but even in college he was in position to get the ball. That's a trait that continues to impress.

Give Brooks some time. No need to say he needs to step up when he's a rookie.

Yeah his failure on that potential INT was a rookie mistake. He owned it. He knows it. Hopefully he learns.

 

It is difficult to step up now when you aren't on the field as well.

[billick]

Up 30-27 with 2:27 left in the fourth quarter, the Baltimore Ravens faced a 4th-and-4 from the San Diego Chargers 13-yard line. Both teams had one timeout remaining so a first down would mean the Chargers could get the ball back with 24 seconds left, assuming the Ravens did not score or convert a second new set of downs. With a field goal, the Ravens would be up only six points, meaning a touchdown would all but win the game for the Chargers. Avid football analytics readers know that in some situations, being up four to six points is worse than being up three points. This is because opposing offenses are forced to be more aggressive, and as a result, more efficient by passing the ball, rather than settling for a long, game-tying field goal (a.k.a. The Jason Garrett).

With a successful conversion, the Ravens' win probability would jump to 97.3%; a failure means 77.6% chance to win. The probability of converting on 4th-and-4 is roughly 43.6%.

 

E[WP_Go-For-It] = 86.2%

A 31-yard field goal converts at 94.0% (probably higher for Tucker), resulting in a win probability of 82.1%; a miss means the Ravens would have a 77.1% chance to win. Tucker has only missed one field goal under 40 yards in his career, so let's be generous and say there is a 98.0% chance he makes the field goal. 
 

E[WP_{Field Goal}] = 82.0%

That makes the break-even point a 22.5% conversion rate on fourth down - essentially half of the actual league-wide conversion rate.

Brian's original win probability model has it as an even greater difference, so much so that there is no break-even point (although his field goal success rate is admittedly low):

After the field goal, Philip Rivers led the Chargers on an eight-play eighty-yard touchdown drive, culminating in the game-winning score to Eddie Royal. The Chargers actually scored touchdowns on each of their final three drives.

The fact that the Ravens ultimately lost is not grounds for criticizing John Harbaugh's decision to kick the field goal - it is the process that is important, not the result. And, to be fair, many different factors can sway these probabilities in game. That being said, the league baselines are a great place to start the analysis and there is such an enormous gap in expected win probability that the Ravens likely made the incorrect decision.
 

Keith Goldner is the Chief Analyst at numberFire.com - The leading fantasy sports analytics platform - and creator of Drive-By Football.  Follow him on twitter @drivebyfootball or check out numberFire on Facebook. Check out numberFire's new iOS App in the app store now.

[757RavensFan]

Great breakdown, THANK YOU!!

 

I'm sure someone will come and dispute going for it on 4th and four. 

[CTFan]

The problem with these statistical analyses is that they don't take into account who the opposing QB is. When you're playing against QB's such as Brady, Peyton, Rogers, and to a somewhat lesser degree, Rivers, the risk is in giving them the ball back. especially with our secondary.

[757RavensFan]

The problem with these statistical analyses is that they don't take into account who the opposing QB is. When you're playing against QB's such as Brady, Peyton, Rogers, and to a somewhat lesser degree, Rivers, the risk is in giving them the ball back. especially with our secondary.

 

I think this statement from the original post takes what you're factoring into consideration. 

 

Avid football analytics readers know that in some situations, being up four to six points is worse than being up three points. This is because opposing offenses are forced to be more aggressive, and as a result, more efficient by passing the ball, rather than settling for a long, game-tying field goal

 

 

[Rinbee]

What's the probability of a win if Harbs does not mismanage the timeout?

[757RavensFan]

What's the probability of a win if Harbs does not mismanage the timeout?

 

I think Aiken was tackled right at the 43 yard line, so that would have been a 60 yard FG for Tucker. 

 

All things considered and since it's Tucker, I would say a 50/50 probability for a win.

[The Mom Gene]

I think Aiken was tackled right at the 43 yard line, so that would have been a 60 yard FG for Tucker. 

 

All things considered and since it's Tucker, I would say a 50/50 probability for a win.

except that he didn't get out of bounds before he was down, and we were out of timeouts.

[757RavensFan]

except that he didn't get out of bounds before he was down, and we were out of timeouts.

 

Did you read what I quoted?  If not, please do. My response was based on the fact that Harb's would have one more timeout for JT to kick the FG.

[1/28/01]

except that he didn't get out of bounds before he was down, and we were out of timeouts.

Ha, what?

[BmoreBird22]

As for you guys saying Brooks needs to step it up now, have any of you actually played CB or safety or been a hybrid DB in college or high school? It's not like you just walk on the field and play. It takes a lot of work to be a good secondary player and there's a reason why a lot of players take time to develop.

A safety is even harder to transition because they don't have to worry about one guy like a CB but need to survey the field and make reads. I know Brooks messed up on that interception but it happens. He probably had jitters, who knows. He wasn't known for his ball skills, but even in college he was in position to get the ball. That's a trait that continues to impress.

Give Brooks some time. No need to say he needs to step up when he's a rookie.

I played when it was more common to run the ball than to throw the ball. It's very unrealistic to expect anything to happen this year, which is why I'm holding out hope for next year

[beanfigger]

As for you guys saying Brooks needs to step it up now, have any of you actually played CB or safety or been a hybrid DB in college or high school? It's not like you just walk on the field and play. It takes a lot of work to be a good secondary player and there's a reason why a lot of players take time to develop.

A safety is even harder to transition because they don't have to worry about one guy like a CB but need to survey the field and make reads. I know Brooks messed up on that interception but it happens. He probably had jitters, who knows. He wasn't known for his ball skills, but even in college he was in position to get the ball. That's a trait that continues to impress.

Give Brooks some time. No need to say he needs to step up when he's a rookie.

I personally read those saying he needs to step up less as an indictment on Brooks himself, but rather a hope and prayer that he can help right the sinking ship that is our secondary this year. More like they were saying, everyone else failed, so now it's your turn and we need you.

[JoeyFlex5]

The reason why we didn't fired cam like some fans wanted was because we was consistently going to playoffs with him as offensive coordinator  and you could obviously tell it wasn't his fault for us losing in the playoffs either.  The big difference between Cam in 2012 and Dean Pees in 2013 is talent. Cam obviously had the right amount of talent to be successful but was  failing to get it done and Pees does have some talent but a poor secondary can only take you but so far.  

 

I think the packers missed the playoffs in 2011 or 2012 because of  a poor secondary.

cam was bad man. run up the middle, all go's, and end arounds was just about his entire playbook. very predictable, zero route design no creativity, and i have never seen a coordinator worse at making adjustments, he literally didnt even make adjustments. 

 

he.was.awful. 

 

i dont think pees is as bad as everyone makes him out to be, but he does need to turn up the pressure heavily because it is our only chance at winning games.

[allblackraven]

As for you guys saying Brooks needs to step it up now, have any of you actually played CB or safety or been a hybrid DB in college or high school? It's not like you just walk on the field and play. It takes a lot of work to be a good secondary player and there's a reason why a lot of players take time to develop.

A safety is even harder to transition because they don't have to worry about one guy like a CB but need to survey the field and make reads. I know Brooks messed up on that interception but it happens. He probably had jitters, who knows. He wasn't known for his ball skills, but even in college he was in position to get the ball. That's a trait that continues to impress.

Give Brooks some time. No need to say he needs to step up when he's a rookie.

I agree with this but would also like to think that Brooks already stepped up during the season. Apart from Hill, we didn't have any other safety who was constantly around the ball as Brooks was. Those visible mistakes happen but he definitely didn't disappoint. I wish he was playing more. Imagine if he got a chance like Elam last year.

[Static]

Brooks is an amazing talent at safety. Its really unforuntate that one play landed him on the bench , harbs.. , He was in great position on that play and I wonder if anyone else would have even been near the play.

 

He's got speed, range, and hits like a truck yet Elam get minutes and Brooks get none.

[gabefergy]

I would have gone for it, but I lean pretty far towards the aggressive play most times. I actually liked the idea of a fake FG as well, but after than got foiled I'd say just go for it.

[GrimCoconut]

I personally read those saying he needs to step up less as an indictment on Brooks himself, but rather a hope and prayer that he can help right the sinking ship that is our secondary this year. More like they were saying, everyone else failed, so now it's your turn and we need you.

You might've read it right. I could've read it wrong. It's just frustrating to read someone say that Brooks needs step up. I mean, he's done a good job so far as a rookie. I didn't even expect him to have a major impact initially. I'd like to see him on the field more, though.

[Inqui]

You might've read it right. I could've read it wrong. It's just frustrating to read someone say that Brooks needs step up. I mean, he's done a good job so far as a rookie. I didn't even expect him to have a major impact initially. I'd like to see him on the field more, though.

People are coming down too hard on him for that one play or Norleans. Shock horror, a rookie made a bad play - I'll get the pitchforks if you find the torches.