What do you think Forsett is worth?

[Maryland]

With the talk of Forsett wanting a long-term deal, I was wondering what this forum thought he might be worth. 

 

On the one hand, Kubiak has produced 1000 yard rushers with just about anyone (Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns). We also have the best run-blocking O-line in the NFL (PFF seems to think so too, with Yanda, KO, and Wagner all top-5 at their positions, and our run grade #2 just behind Philly).

 

Forsett does possess obvious talent, especially with his vision to hit gaps as they open up, pick up blocks, catch balls, and avoid tackles. Plus one need only look at Bernard Pierce to see how bad we could have it--Pierce has terrible vision and almost never breaks a tackle.

 

The biggest problem is Forsett will be 30 next year. Running backs tend to have a huge drop off in their late 20s (see the following graph). Granted, Forsett has avoided a lot of the wear and tear by virtue of being a career backup, although he did miss 2013 with a broken foot. 

 

I guess if I was going to give Forsett a contract, it would be comparable to what Rashad Jennings received from the Giants (both are 29). Maybe something like 2 years, 5 million, 1.8 million guaranteed. I assume we'll be using more Taliaferro in 2015 and drafting a RB after this year. Forsett isn't a long-term bell-cow RB, but he would be a valuable 3rd down back that would compliment Taliaferro. 

 

[JoeyFlex5]

i am worried about his production if kubiak takes a HC job elsewhere, but if he stays, he is an asset to this team as a teacher and someone who can execute this system greatly, and he has barely played in his pro career so for being on the older side for a starting RB he still has fresh legs. 

 

he has had an amazing year with us but im not so sure about some blockbuster 5 year deal, this is not something we were calculating last offseason when we were already talking about jimmy and torreys extensions, so this one is tough evaluate, he certainly has earned himself a nice little pay day but i could see a scenario where we just dont see the value and he turns down our highest offer, it would be sad to see him walk after the year hes had but kubiak can make any back look good, and if he leaves and we continue to use the system in some way, there are plenty of RB's to be had in this years draft.

[RobFuseRaven]

Can we really use the age logic when he's been a career back up with very little tread on his tires?

[K-Dog]

Can we really use the age logic when he's been a career back up with very little tread on his tires?

Valid point.

I would not even bring Pierce into the conversation. Talliferro (?) Is a more than worthy back up.

I admittedly dont know enough to spew numbers I will trust Ozzie on this matter.

[Bltravens]

That chart is just scary for HBs.  Just a total cliff at 28.

[Mt. Crushmore]

2 years 7 million with 3 million guaranteed.

[HoldingCall]

i am worried about his production if kubiak takes a HC job elsewhere, but if he stays, he is an asset to this team as a teacher and someone who can execute this system greatly, and he has barely played in his pro career so for being on the older side for a starting RB he still has fresh legs. 

 

he has had an amazing year with us but im not so sure about some blockbuster 5 year deal, this is not something we were calculating last offseason when we were already talking about jimmy and torreys extensions, so this one is tough evaluate, he certainly has earned himself a nice little pay day but i could see a scenario where we just dont see the value and he turns down our highest offer, it would be sad to see him walk after the year hes had but kubiak can make any back look good, and if he leaves and we continue to use the system in some way, there are plenty of RB's to be had in this years draft.

Forsett has done a lot to improve his resume this season.  I think the Ravens will offer him a one or two year deal with incentives based on performance. I wouldn't be surprised if he is given the opportunity to test the market either. Much depends on how well he holds up for the remainder of the season in cold weather.

[edthehead]

2 yr deal, 5 mil,with about 1.5-2 mil guaranteed,he has been a career back so he has  young legs, in the end we can keep him or trade him,but this is a good kid, and we are a good organization,he will be fairly compensated.  

[Free Agent]

Considering the market for running backs last offseason, I don't think we'd have to worry about giving out any kind of major deal anyways. A two year deal for around 5 million is very fair given both the running back market and his age.

[BmoreBird22]

Can we really use the age logic when he's been a career back up with very little tread on his tires?

Nope, and that's what I was going to say. Most backs that drop-off around that age have several seasons of 250+ rushes and a ton of beatings in the trenches. Forsett hasn't even hit 200 carries this year. I think he could go for another two, three years at a high level.

Just look at Fred Jackson. He's still pretty effective despite being 34(?) Because the Bills did an excellent job of limiting his touches

[Ravenseconbeast]

2 years 7 million with 3 million guaranteed.

That sounds about right.

3years 12m w/ 5m guaranteed imo

[ravensnick]

With the talk of Forsett wanting a long-term deal, I was wondering what this forum thought he might be worth. 

 

On the one hand, Kubiak has produced 1000 yard rushers with just about anyone (Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns). We also have the best run-blocking O-line in the NFL (PFF seems to think so too, with Yanda, KO, and Wagner all top-5 at their positions, and our run grade #2 just behind Philly).

 

Forsett does possess obvious talent, especially with his vision to hit gaps as they open up, pick up blocks, catch balls, and avoid tackles. Plus one need only look at Bernard Pierce to see how bad we could have it--Pierce has terrible vision and almost never breaks a tackle.

 

The biggest problem is Forsett will be 30 next year. Running backs tend to have a huge drop off in their late 20s (see the following graph). Granted, Forsett has avoided a lot of the wear and tear by virtue of being a career backup, although he did miss 2013 with a broken foot. 

 

I guess if I was going to give Forsett a contract, it would be comparable to what Rashad Jennings received from the Giants (both are 29). Maybe something like 2 years, 5 million, 1.8 million guaranteed. I assume we'll be using more Taliaferro in 2015 and drafting a RB after this year. Forsett isn't a long-term bell-cow RB, but he would be a valuable 3rd down back that would compliment Taliaferro. 

 

Consider forsett has almost no workload on his body, he should actually remain viable for a lot longer (maybe even to his mid-30s). I'd give him a three year deal. Something like 10-14 million, like 4-6 guaranteed.

[ravensnick]

Nope, and that's what I was going to say. Most backs that drop-off around that age have several seasons of 250+ rushes and a ton of beatings in the trenches. Forsett hasn't even hit 200 carries this year. I think he could go for another two, three years at a high level.

Just look at Fred Jackson. He's still pretty effective despite being 34(?) Because the Bills did an excellent job of limiting his touches

and because he played in the Indoor football league for a while. Crazy to think Fred Jackson was the 3rd string back on his texas high school team his senior year because he was "too small"

[rmw10]

2 years 7 million with 3 million guaranteed.

 

This is around what I thought when I first saw the thread.  2 years seems right for a guy approaching age 30, even though the mileage isn't there.

[Gordo52]

Even though he's been great, I wouldn't do it..... Throughout recent years I've learned RB's can easily be replaced. Especially in a Kubiak offense, which is an uncertainty to be here long term, (with him calling the plays at least.)

Also factoring in his age, I don't think it would be a good idea..... Don't get me wrong, I love the ways he runs and he's been a tremendous pick up for us. Just don't believe in commiting to a running back long term anymore. Plus we lave Lorenzo waiting in the wings who I believe could eventually start, himself.

[Gordo52]

If I had to put a number on it, I wouldn't go past 2 years, 4 million.

No disrespect to the man but his position is way too expendable.

[codizzle]

If I had to put a number on it, I wouldn't go past 2 years, 4 million.

No disrespect to the man but his position is way too expendable.

Give him 35 and like it

[Inqui]

Give him 35 and like it

35 years is a bit long for a RB. Don't want to be on the hook for all that guaranteed money.

[codizzle]

35 years is a bit long for a RB. Don't want to be on the hook for all that guaranteed money.

Don't question the methods.. They're proven

[GrimCoconut]

I wouldn't give him a lot. I'd probably call off talks if he wants more than 2.5M annual average.

[Inqui]

I was too tired to write it last night, but mileage is a much better test of where a RB's at than age. And Forsett's mileage is comparable to yours or mine.

 

What he does that not just any RB off the street can do is that he regularly makes his first guy miss, then has the acceleration to turn a half-break into a decent gain. And he's already familiar with Kubiak's stretch zone. Those reasons alone make him worth keeping.

 

That said, I still think we hold all the leverage in these contract talks. The position's so ridiculously expendable and next year's draft crop for RB is the best it's been for a while (since 2008?), and that's before you talk about Forsett being a system back.

 

I'd like to sign him, but anything more than two or three years would be very disappointing. Three years, 9 million or so is probably where I'd cap it but even that seems a bit long. I think we can get at least two good years out of him if we keep our OC (or at least his system) for that time.

[757RavensFan]

He's getting $700k this year as a career backup.  IMO, anything less than $2M a year would be an insult considering his performance so far.   

[The Raven]

I'd give him a Steve Smith type deal. 3-4 years 8 million, but he can be cut after two with little to penalty. First two years are guaranteed money. After that its a flat salary with escalators. He gets security for two years, and he has the potential to make this a long term deal.

[Wildabeast88]

Can we really use the age logic when he's been a career back up with very little tread on his tires?

I agree about the work load being light he's more like a 24 25 yr old back with such little usage. I agree with a Jennings comparable contract maybe even in the 3 for 8-9 mil would be good but like was mentioned Davis Gary Anderson Droughns Portis Slaton and Foster were all 1000 yd backs and I feel like I'm missing someone else in there but I believe Forsett needs to be resigned

[Wildabeast88]

Nope, and that's what I was going to say. Most backs that drop-off around that age have several seasons of 250+ rushes and a ton of beatings in the trenches. Forsett hasn't even hit 200 carries this year. I think he could go for another two, three years at a high level.

Just look at Fred Jackson. He's still pretty effective despite being 34(?) Because the Bills did an excellent job of limiting his touches

well spoken Jackson at 34 is still better than CJ Spiller and is still productive but that being said we can't go and drop 275 carries on him he needs to stay in that 200-225 carry a season area

[Ausman]

No more than $2 million a year Age is a big difference and a deal killer.

 

More than $2 million a year move on and let's just draft Melvin Gordon.

[Ravenslifer]

3.5-4 million per year would be the max I'd spend on Forsett.  His age is not really a concern to me - relatively he's got very little tread on his tires.  The issue is that I don't value the RB position very highly, and also that Gary Kubiak has a talent for finding unheralded guys that fit his system.  I don't see the need to spend the coin on a RB when we have to think about resigning Torrey, Tucker, Aiken, Hill, Gorrer, and pray we can resign McPhee.

[rmw10]

I'm not really concerned with the overall contract as much as I am guaranteed money.  We can give him 3-4 years for all I care, as long as we make the cap hit manageable to eat after 2 years if he hits a cliff.  That seems to be the way we work contracts for guys toward the end of their careers.  We have perfect examples of that with Daryl Smith and Jacoby Jones right now.  It would essentially give Forsett the opportunity to earn his money, but give us the opportunity to get out of the contract without too much of a penalty if he can't last the entire life of the deal.

[KDUBB44]

not much

[TDubbs]

I'd avoid signing him all together tbh, if we had a chance at one of the top RB's in this class. Don't get me wrong, I love what Forsett is doing for us and should continue to do. However we have a great running scheme and I feel a top young RB could be very exciting here.