Ozzie bad at drafting receivers myth.

[dhstandard]

This has been floating around a long time and people are adamant that Ozzie struggles when it comes to drafting receivers.  I think this is complete crap and simply a result of not spending higher picks.  I want to analyze Ozzie's picks at receiver and determine how successful he truly is.

 

The first and most interesting stat is that besides Torrey, Ozzie has not spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on a receiver since '05 when we drafted Clayton.  

 

Total list of high draft picks spent on receiver (1st or 2nd)

 

1st:

Travis Taylor

Mark Clayton

2nd:

Patrick Johnson

Torrey Smith 

 

Looking at this group of names, Ozzie doesn't seem to be doing to well to start off.  BUT the first thing to be noted is Travis Taylor.  During that 2000 draft class only one receiver made it to the pro-bowl, Laveraneus Cole drafted in the 3rd round.  A grand total of NINE receivers were taken between Taylor and Cole.  Even as the star of his class, his career was average at best.   

Clayton comes next, a player who spent his career with the likes of Boller and struggled through injuries.  Probably the most notably player seeing as Roddy White was drafted right after.  

 

Looking at the second round.  Patrick Johnson was taken over Hines Ward though, again, there were 7 players drafted between the two and as a 2nd round prospect, we have a class of busts. 

As far as Torrey Smith goes, behind him come Greg Little and Randall Cobb and later, Cecil Shorts.  I would argue that only Cobb stands up to Torrey and he plays with Aaron Rodgers.

 

 

Ultimately, I do not see a Ozzie as having low success with high round picks at receiver.  Looking at the totality of his high picks we see busts at several positions: Terrence Cody (2), Dan Cody (2), Kyle Boller (1), 

And some players who did not live up to their draft positions: Chris Chester (1), Oher (1) 

 

 

While Ozzie has very few busts at high round picks, and that list includes two receivers, I do not see that as a sign of bad drafting.  Travis Taylor happened to be in a class of nobodies and both him and Clayton played on offenses where most players struggled to get any sort of production.  We also have to look at guys Ozzie intended to draft but missed out on IE Dez Bryant.

 

In the 2nd round, Ozzie does well but as we see, he misses on various players and did actually hit on Torrey not missing too much with the receivers he could have taken.    I think that should Ozzie spend a higher pick on receivers, we will see the success we usually do when he makes his 1st and 2nd round picks.  

[Inqui]

Honestly I think he hasn't taken many WRs high because the risk involved with the prospect (and WRs as a position are generally harder to predict) tend to push them down on the Ravens board. Chuck in other teams arguably overdrafting the WRs that actually are high on the team's board and that's a big part of why Ozzie doesn't usually pull the trigger on them early. And if you don't take many early then your misses will obviously become more pronounced.

 

It's easier to get a guy like Timmy Jernigan (first-round talent) in the second round than it is to get a guy like Jordan Matthews or Kelvin Benjamin (also first-round talents) in the second because other sides are more likely to get excited by their potential and overlook their flaws. And if they do fall (Marqise Lee), it's generally for something more serious.

[Dewy101]

Sorry but after what I've seen from this years rookie class and production from late round WRs in the league Ozzie really needs to take a chance on some receivers even if his status on drafting receivers hasn't been all that great. I honestly think outside of the Raiders we are outmatched by every team when it comes to receiver talent (TE included). They're game changers. This myth of QBs making receivers better needs to stop its obviously the other way around.

[rlh445]

It's not a, 'myth,'.  It's a pretty objective fact.  Maybe Ozzie should actually try his hand at drafting actual number one talent at receiver if he doesn't want that label.  I'm sure he doesn't care; he's got two rings but I'm sure he knows a lot of Ravens fans do care.  I guess being so successful has gotten in the way as well but we've had some chances at drafting some really, really good receivers in the past and decided to just go defense instead.  If we don't start changing with the league, we're gonna get left behind.

[Florida Ravens Fan]

It's not a, 'myth,'. It's a pretty objective fact. Maybe Ozzie should actually try his hand at drafting actual number one talent at receiver if he doesn't want that label. I'm sure he doesn't care; he's got two rings but I'm sure he knows a lot of Ravens fans do care. I guess being so successful has gotten in the way as well but we've had some chances at drafting some really, really good receivers in the past and decided to just go defense instead. If we don't start changing with the league, we're gonna get left behind.

+100

What is so upsetting is that last year's draft was considered one of the deepest drafts for wr talent. Watching Beckham catch that amazing pass for the Giants was sickening I really wanted us to draft him.

[Jokerraven]

It's not a myth it's a valid issue. Out of 20 drafted receivers only one, Torrey Smith has over 1000 yards in a season. The argument could be made that very few were high draft picks but again it's Ozzie's choice as to who we draft.

 

http://profootballspot.com/_/nfl/afc-north/history-is-working-against-the-ravens-receivers-r274

[edthehead]

Last year draft class was deep ,, what did we walk away with??,,,,another great pic in defense,yes I like the pics over here but, This thing with us not drafting a game changing player is absurd,and for the record I REALLY WANTED JORDAN MATTHEWS,, OZ has always taken talent from other teams,but we do need our own player to grow,,, 

[H8R]

I think WR is a high risk/reward position .... Probably the second hardest position to draft besides a QB ( LT may also be right there). MANY GM's miss on WR's. I'm not Soo sure Ozzie is that much worse than others. Honestly , before Flacco... there really wasn't a high priority to draft a WR early because we weren't strong enough in the passing game to justify it. I do think Ozzie needs to do better, but he's probably not the worst. Do I feel we should have taken some guys that were available and we went elsewhere? YES... Sometimes we get enamored with value picks and bypass someone who can add to the squad right now. We also seem to have rookies come in and end up on IR almost immediately . I know this isn't always due to injury (hiding guys on the roster) but it's sort of alarming how many of our young guys have injuries...

[rmcjacket23]

Sorry but after what I've seen from this years rookie class and production from late round WRs in the league Ozzie really needs to take a chance on some receivers even if his status on drafting receivers hasn't been all that great. I honestly think outside of the Raiders we are outmatched by every team when it comes to receiver talent (TE included). They're game changers. This myth of QBs making receivers better needs to stop its obviously the other way around.

Uhh, not really.

 

Receivers are game changers... they're just not game winners. No strong correlation exists between receiving yardage and wins in the NFL.

 

Needless to say... there isn't much WR talent in Seattle, nor is there barely any in New England (and no... just listing people's names doesn't make them talented).

 

Its actually quite easy to see... you can be amongst the worst teams in the league in talent at the receiver position and can still win at least half or more of your football games. You can also be amongst the best teams in the league in receiving talent, and not even be a playoff team.

[Drew P]

+100

What is so upsetting is that last year's draft was considered one of the deepest drafts for wr talent. Watching Beckham catch that amazing pass for the Giants was sickening I really wanted us to draft him.

 

He might be one of those guys that is always hurt..like Clowney.

[757RavensFan]

It's pretty obvious that the game has changed. The ever changing rules have clearly made this a pass friendly game.  Not selecting a top tier WR to go with this trend doesn't make sense to me.  We drafted Camp this year and no knock on him but we got him in the 6th or 7th round, I can't recall.  But you can't tell me we couldn't have used a mid round pick on a decent WR. 

[rmcjacket23]

Here's the problem I have with this...

 

There are plenty of fans advocating that we begin using high draft picks on receivers, and I for one don't really have an issue with that. BUT, lets look at what has really happened when we've done that...

 

From 96-2014, the Ravens have drafted four WRs in the first two rounds of the draft (Patrick Johnson (98), Travis Taylor (00), Mark Clayton (05), and Torrey Smith (11)). If you were to combined the Ravens statistics for those players and average them out over a typical 16 game season, you'd have a player who averages 43 catches, 630 yards and 4 TDs per season. That's what we've gotten out of high draft picks. And keep in mind... Torrey is actually heavily inflating those numbers. If you eliminated Torrey from the equation, our primary 3 picks averaged 31 catches, 425 yards and 2 TDs per season. And ironically... some fans think Torrey isn't worth retaining, which may be true, but he's BY FAR the best early-round receiver we've gotten in our franchise history.

 

Obviously, the Ravens haven't excelled in identifying or producing talent from those picks.

 

But the real question is... whats the solution? Do you start drafting more receivers early? Well, given the track record, I'm not sure you can really justify it. I think its possible that the franchise has become a little gun-shy about it, because they don't want the consequences of using a first/second round pick on a WR and being wrong. They'd rather use mid-round picks and buy established veterans in FA, because they can handle a "whiff" easier under those scenarios.

 

You can argue the sample size of using high-picks on WRs is low, which I partially agree with, but keep in mind that there are plenty of teams who draft receivers early often, and I'd say all of them have one of two things in common...

 

1. They're drafting receivers early because they keep missing on them.

2. They're not actually winning football games consistently.

 

If you really think about it, 4 high round picks on WRs in 19 drafts isn't really a low number.

[arnie_uk]

If you really think about it, 4 high round picks on WRs in 19 drafts isn't really a low number.

one every 5 years? Id say that is low, especially when only one has remotely worked out. I'm not going to do the leg work however.

[GrimCoconut]

I've read through all the replies and rather than quoting them individually, I'll just respond here in one post:

I agree with the OP on pretty much everything. Ozzie just hasn't spent many high picks on WR. Granted, you could say he's been burned there before and so he avoids it, which I don't believe. I think it's been a combination of many factors.

For many years, we just didn't have a QB to really make taking a WR high valuable. Our identity was ground and pound, smash mouth football. That identity has changed ever since Harbaugh, as we've begun transitioning with the times. We finally hit on Flacco, and now we just need the WR.

So I've addressed identity and QB as reasons behind not taking many WR early in prior years. Another reason is teams have likely taken guys right in front of our eyes and teams have drafted better. This makes our job harder from a draft perspective.

Another aspect is value, as we probably saw WR not as much of a need as other positions. I've been hard on Ozzie for not taking Jeffrey, but we did just draft two WR the year before and still had Boldin. Then you have Allen, whom I really liked, but I'm not sure I would've taken him above Williams with our dire need at NT as some forget how poorly Cody played there. While Brown hasn't started yet and played well in a role last year he hasn't lived up to his draft status but that doesn't mean he won't and it's hard to question that choice when we really did need an ILB after losing Lewis.

Also remember that Bryant was taken before our eyes and it's been reported that we wanted him. I do believe Ozzie wants to fix WR but it's all value with him.

[RaineV1]

As much as I like Jernigan and think he will be a good, long term starter, I kinda wish Ozzie would have picked Adams in the second round instead. He really seems like the type of receiver that Flacco likes.

[GrimCoconut]

As much as I like Jernigan and think he will be a good, long term starter, I kinda wish Ozzie would have picked Adams in the second round instead. He really seems like the type of receiver that Flacco likes.

I'd have rather had Allen Robinson but to each his own. I'm actually pretty happy with Jernigan getting selected. I think he can eventually replace what Ngata used to give us as both inevitably age.

[jazz1988]

Sorry but after what I've seen from this years rookie class and production from late round WRs in the league Ozzie really needs to take a chance on some receivers even if his status on drafting receivers hasn't been all that great. I honestly think outside of the Raiders we are outmatched by every team when it comes to receiver talent (TE included). They're game changers. This myth of QBs making receivers better needs to stop its obviously the other way around.

 

I feel like Micheal Campanaro would be added to that list of productive rookie receivers if he was healthy enough to play.  

[The Raven]

I don't think the problem is necessarily that Ozzie sucks at drafting WRs. I think the problem has significantly more to do with getting WRs that fit the scheme, QB, and OC.

 

Prior to Flacco/Harbs/Cam era, we never had a functional offense with a functional QB. There's no telling what potential Mark Clayton had if he only had the opportunity to grow with Flacco. Moreover, his skillset was wasted in the Air Coryell offense. We may have had untapped potential at WR, but we never knew because of deficiencies at QB or OC.

 

Additionally, I think it's crucial that we get WRs that fit the QB. Although Tandon Doss never made his mark on our offense, it was widely known that Flacco handpicked him to be drafted. Yet, he never saw the field. Flacco has made it clear in both his actions off the field and on the field that he prefers sure handed route runners as opposed to the speedsters. It's no coincidence that his best year came with Housh, Mason, and Boldin. I've made this point in Flacco threads, but it belongs here too.

 

Simply put, we never had a QB, WR, and scheme that complemented each other all at once. We never had a scheme that really fit a a WR and allowed him to grow with a QB. We rarely invested in WRs that did fit our QB. And prior to that, we never had a QB that allowed a WR to develop. So yeah, maybe we are bad at drafting wide receivers, but I'd argue it has more to do with schematic and personnel relationships and less to do with talent.

[Dewy101]

Uhh, not really.

Receivers are game changers... they're just not game winners. No strong correlation exists between receiving yardage and wins in the NFL.

Needless to say... there isn't much WR talent in Seattle, nor is there barely any in New England (and no... just listing people's names doesn't make them talented).

Its actually quite easy to see... you can be amongst the worst teams in the league in talent at the receiver position and can still win at least half or more of your football games. You can also be amongst the best teams in the league in receiving talent, and not even be a playoff team.

Have you seen seattle play? They're struggling in the pass game only reason why they stay in games is because of Russel Wilsons ability to run with the ball. They miss Golden Tate big time. There's a guy named Gronk in NE who is basically a receiver. He changes games. Every game we've lost this season has been to a team with a lot of receiving talent, guys who we can't cover. I'm not saying we need production from them to change games just the fact of a good receiver being on the field changes games. Opens up the run game, takes pressure off the qb.

[Tenacious Faulker]

I think that partly Ozzie is not the best evaluator of wide receiver talent, partly due to the circumstance of drafting late and partly partly because he does play it safe.  You may want to throw 3rd rounders in that mix too as 3rd round is still a high pick that most teams take extremely importantly.  If Ozzie was as firm in his convictions at WR we would've had one.  He's a great GM, but even the greats have the rweak point.  No shame in it, so he plays to his strengths.  

 

Skill positions are tricky defensive position are not nearly as tricky which makes picks like Mosely more attractive than Kelvin Benjamin.  AND who here would trade Mosely for Benjamin? (Beckham, btw, was an impossibility drafted 12th overall).  

 

Ozzie is tentative/conservative/bearish on skill positions.  The Ravens style of play reflect that.  Solid play, plenty of wins, but no offensive explosion or flair.  Its just how he rolls.  At the end of the day, I'll take a winning season in any form over flashy players.  Had Beckam fallen to say 15th, I'd have been all over Ozzie trading up.  I'm sure Steve, Harbs and Kubiak would've forced his hand too.  

 

You have look at track record.  Ozzie's overall is great.  WR's and QB's are not his strong suit.  He has at least one success story in each of those categories.  he'll have a few more opportunities before all is said and done.

[rmcjacket23]

one every 5 years? Id say that is low, especially when only one has remotely worked out. I'm not going to do the leg work however.

I wouldn't say its that infrequent. I'm not going to do the research either, but I'd say that would probably fall in-line with the league average.

 

When you consider in a 5 year period you would project to only have about 10 top-two round picks on average, and given the plethora of positions you have to choose from, I wouldn't say that's a bad ratio.

 

As I said earlier... if you're the kind of teaming using a 1st or 2nd round pick every 2-3 drafts, you're probably not doing very well.

[ravensnick]

+100

What is so upsetting is that last year's draft was considered one of the deepest drafts for wr talent. Watching Beckham catch that amazing pass for the Giants was sickening I really wanted us to draft him.

Kinda hard to draft a guy that went 5 picks before us. I wanted Kyle Fuller, Mike Evans, or Beckham, but Moesly has been more than fine.

[ravensnick]

Ozzie has done well with FA WR as recent. Mason, Boldin, Jacoby, Steve Smith just to name a few.

[Tru11]

reaching for players is a terrible way to draft.

 

the top WRs usually go very ealy in round 1 and the ravens rarely have an early pick.

 

to land a top WR means you have to mortage the future.

as good as julio jones is , the falcons arent going anywhere and the browns seems to have made the most out of those picks.

 

Ozzie BPA philospy has been proven to be more succesfull then the fans idea of reachings for players.

 

How many of the wrs fans love to name have had any team succes so far?

[Tiz]

Seems like people aren't really saying he's bad with drafting wr they are just upset he doesn't spend a first or second on them often and quite frankly I'm happy with what we did get last year over a wr

[callahan09]

Uhh, not really.

 

Receivers are game changers... they're just not game winners. No strong correlation exists between receiving yardage and wins in the NFL.

 

Needless to say... there isn't much WR talent in Seattle, nor is there barely any in New England (and no... just listing people's names doesn't make them talented).

 

Its actually quite easy to see... you can be amongst the worst teams in the league in talent at the receiver position and can still win at least half or more of your football games. You can also be amongst the best teams in the league in receiving talent, and not even be a playoff team.

Edelman and Gronkowski are both capable of making game-changing plays.  Gronkowski is a monster, and Edelman is a very strong football player who excels at a lot of different things on the football field, including making very difficult catches, which he has done rather routinely for Tom Brady.  Edelman doesn't have star-power as a receiver for whatever reason, probably because he plays for Tom Brady and wasn't considered a natural receiver before he became one for the Patriots... but the play that he puts out on the field begs to differ.  He has become an excellent receiver.  He's a fast learner.  He was drafted a quarterback and then went on to play roles as a defensive back and punt returner before becoming a wide receiver as an injury fill-in for Welker.  He is overlooked due to his strange history and the fact that he's on the same offense as Gronkowski, he gets the ball a lot, and Brady, who everybody points to as the reason that his receivers have nice stats even though they play well themselves and it's doing them a disservice to ignore thatn.

[rmcjacket23]

Edelman and Gronkowski are both capable of making game-changing plays.  Gronkowski is a monster, and Edelman is a very strong football player who excels at a lot of different things on the football field, including making very difficult catches, which he has done rather routinely for Tom Brady.  Edelman doesn't have star-power as a receiver for whatever reason, probably because he plays for Tom Brady and wasn't considered a natural receiver before he became one for the Patriots... but the play that he puts out on the field begs to differ.  He has become an excellent receiver.  He's a fast learner.  He was drafted a quarterback and then went on to play roles as a defensive back and punt returner before becoming a wide receiver as an injury fill-in for Welker.  He is overlooked due to his strange history and the fact that he's on the same offense as Gronkowski, he gets the ball a lot, and Brady, who everybody points to as the reason that his receivers have nice stats even though they play well themselves and it's doing them a disservice to ignore thatn.

That's great... Edelman does exactly what Wes Welker did.

 

And Welker leaves, goes and plays with another great QB, and within two years is completely and utterly phased out of the offense in favor of far more talented receivers.

 

You basically just made my argument for me... receivers are playmakers, not gamemakers. You can make Odell Beckham-like historically great plays at the position, and on Monday its ultimately irrelevant.

[callahan09]

That's great... Edelman does exactly what Wes Welker did.

 

And Welker leaves, goes and plays with another great QB, and within two years is completely and utterly phased out of the offense in favor of far more talented receivers.

 

You basically just made my argument for me... receivers are playmakers, not gamemakers. You can make Odell Beckham-like historically great plays at the position, and on Monday its ultimately irrelevant.

It's a team game.  We both know this.  Receivers are extremely important to whether a QB performs well.  There is also a running game, there is a defense, there are special teams units.  If you fail in any particular area, it is difficult for the other units to overcome and get a win, because this is the ultimate team game.  I'm not arguing with you on this matter, I'm just saying, New England has wide receiver talent.  They absolutely do, your argument that they don't is ridiculous.

 

Welker is a small, 33 year old receiver who doesn't even compare to some of the freaks that Peyton Manning throws the ball to.  On another team, Welker might even today be a #1 target, but on the Broncos, he's practically a backup because they have younger, stronger, more athletic freaks that are among the best in the NFL and they don't need Welker in their equation in order to be successful.  His lack of importance on his current team has nothing to do with how good he was when he was with New England and how good Edelman is today with New England.

[rmcjacket23]

It's a team game.  We both know this.  Receivers are extremely important to whether a QB performs well.  There is also a running game, there is a defense, there are special teams units.  If you fail in any particular area, it is difficult for the other units to overcome and get a win, because this is the ultimate team game.  I'm not arguing with you on this matter, I'm just saying, New England has wide receiver talent.  They absolutely do, your argument that they don't is ridiculous.

 

Welker is a small, 33 year old receiver who doesn't even compare to some of the freaks that Peyton Manning throws the ball to.  On another team, Welker might even today be a #1 target, but on the Broncos, he's practically a backup because they have younger, stronger, more athletic freaks that are among the best in the NFL and they don't need Welker in their equation in order to be successful.  His lack of importance on his current team has nothing to do with how good he was when he was with New England and how good Edelman is today with New England.

I'll put it this way.. if NE has WR talent (and I said WRs, not TEs), then every team in the league has talent. Their receivers are Edelman, a pure volume, possession receiver, and Brandon LaFell, a high draft pick who was written off as a bust, who had countless opportunities to show his worth in Carolina and did practically nothing. There is literally nothing different about 2014 LaFell vs 2012-2013 LaFell. He didn't all of a sudden acquire more skills or become a more polished receiver.... he changed QBs and he changed systems.

 

WR for the most part is one of the few positions on the team where you can be well below average at and still win plenty of games. I'd argue talent at the RB position falls in that place, and probably linebacker as well.

 

QB, defensive line, offensive line and secondary are four of the toughest spots on a team to be well below average at and win consistently in this league.

[kassaiscool]

The Ravens never had a true number 1 receiver. If they did have a true number 1 receiver, he was a free agent who was on the back end of his career. Some of these players would include Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and now Steve Smith. If the Ravens get a go to guy for Flacco I feel filling the rest of the receiving corps would be easier. They haven't and that is truly pathetic considering the NFL has been a passing league for quite some time now.