Let's talk about Pernell McPhee

[gabefergy]

Several of those players are either every down linebackers or not pass rushing specialists at all (Jarret Johnson).

None of those players were every down players before they got those contracts.

[gabefergy]

Well, for starters, if we make no additions or subtractions, we'd probably be about $10M over the salary cap as it is.

 

Ngata will require an extension or get cut, as likely will somebody like Yanda. Jimmy Smith would be in the final year of his deal, and Torrey needs a new deal. And that excludes the fact that most of the "bigger" deals aren't really releasable, as most of them are new. In short... I'd expect money to be tight as it is.

 

The idea that McPhee brings more value than Torrey is simply laughable to me, because all that would be is an overreaction to Torrey's slow start this season. Nobody thought McPhee brought more value to the Ravens than Torrey ANYTIME in the past three seasons, yet they've been here for the exact same amount of time. Frankly, the Ravens could find a Pernell McPhee in the draft next year if they really wanted to. Finding anybody to replace Torrey, even with as little statistical production he's having right now, is a lot more difficult.

 

There isn't a guy on that bench that can do half of what Torrey does. There's already at least two guys on the roster who do what McPhee does, and arguably better than he does (and they are both locked into long term contracts).

 

Just an overreaction at this point.

If the cap stays the same, we won't be over it, so you are incorrect about that.

 

If Ngata gets extended or is cut, that frees up cap space, so that would be more reason for a player like McPhee to stay. Canty is likely going to be cut, so that makes a guy like McPhee who can play DL more valuable to us.

 

Yanda and Jimmy Smith will not be free agents, so if they are extended it will also most likely be cap savings.

 

So that brings us back to the only other major FA, which is Torrey Smith. Saying he is less valuable than McPhee is not an over-reaction to his slow start, but is an indictment on his mediocre level of play throughout his 4 years here. He is a one trick pony who has really not much gotten better. He will be more expensive than McPhee and his role is not that hard to fill if we are being honest. A rookie could probably come in and give the same level of play that Torrey has been providing. 

[rmcjacket23]

If the cap stays the same, we won't be over it, so you are incorrect about that.

 

If Ngata gets extended or is cut, that frees up cap space, so that would be more reason for a player like McPhee to stay. Canty is likely going to be cut, so that makes a guy like McPhee who can play DL more valuable to us.

 

Yanda and Jimmy Smith will not be free agents, so if they are extended it will also most likely be cap savings.

 

So that brings us back to the only other major FA, which is Torrey Smith. Saying he is less valuable than McPhee is not an over-reaction to his slow start, but is an indictment on his mediocre level of play throughout his 4 years here. He is a one trick pony who has really not much gotten better. He will be more expensive than McPhee and his role is not that hard to fill if we are being honest. A rookie could probably come in and give the same level of play that Torrey has been providing. 

Actually, I'm 100% correct about the cap, as verified by this website (amongst others). With the current year cap at $133M, we currently, with no other moves, already have $136M in cap money invested already (including the $9.5M cap hit Ray Rice will take in 2015).

 

While Yanda and Smith won't be FAs next season, thats also irrelevant, because the concept of allowing Jimmy to play out his deal and test the FA market wouldn't seem to be a very prudent one, as it comes with obvious risks. Historically, the Ravens don't wait until players get to FA to lock up guys they want.

 

There are numerous other things that can happen, such as trying to pick up players in FA, as well as dealing with Ngata's contract, among others. Its entirely possible that Pitta ends his career, and we take a significant cap hit for that (could add as much as $6M more to the 2015 cap). Will there be players that are cut? Absolutely. But as I said, Ngata is virtually the only person I see who could be cut that would amount to much savings at all.

 

Its easy to say that we can afford to pay everybody who wants $4-5M, but obviously we know thats not true. We refused to give Corey Graham $4M a year, and his value was exponentially higher than McPhee's ever was (and we actually had cap money last season).

 

And obviously you aren't going to find a Torrey Smith in the draft, because it took us about a decade to find him, and we tried numerous times. Rookie WRs just don't make that kind of impact, and most of them don't until year 3 at the earliest. The only benefit to have having a down 2014 is we might get him cheaper. He's essentially the same player (I'd argue better) as Mike Wallace, and we know what he got when hit the open market.

 

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/baltimore-ravens

[JoeyFlex5]

the one argument ill make to overpay mcphee by about 1m a year more than hes worth, is that he seems to be pretty solid bringing pressure up the middle, which is hard to come by and is a valuable asset for a defense, preventing a qb from stepping up in the pocket leads to sacks and picks more than exterior rushes, pressure up the middle just doesnt come as frequently

[gabefergy]

Actually, I'm 100% correct about the cap, as verified by this website (amongst others). With the current year cap at $133M, we currently, with no other moves, already have $136M in cap money invested already (including the $9.5M cap hit Ray Rice will take in 2015).

 

While Yanda and Smith won't be FAs next season, thats also irrelevant, because the concept of allowing Jimmy to play out his deal and test the FA market wouldn't seem to be a very prudent one, as it comes with obvious risks. Historically, the Ravens don't wait until players get to FA to lock up guys they want.

 

There are numerous other things that can happen, such as trying to pick up players in FA, as well as dealing with Ngata's contract, among others. Its entirely possible that Pitta ends his career, and we take a significant cap hit for that (could add as much as $6M more to the 2015 cap). Will there be players that are cut? Absolutely. But as I said, Ngata is virtually the only person I see who could be cut that would amount to much savings at all.

 

Its easy to say that we can afford to pay everybody who wants $4-5M, but obviously we know thats not true. We refused to give Corey Graham $4M a year, and his value was exponentially higher than McPhee's ever was (and we actually had cap money last season).

 

And obviously you aren't going to find a Torrey Smith in the draft, because it took us about a decade to find him, and we tried numerous times. Rookie WRs just don't make that kind of impact, and most of them don't until year 3 at the earliest. The only benefit to have having a down 2014 is we might get him cheaper. He's essentially the same player (I'd argue better) as Mike Wallace, and we know what he got when hit the open market.

 

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/baltimore-ravens

Actually there is thing called rollover, and the Ravens have close to 7 million in cap room that will be added on because of it. So no, you're wrong.

 

Canty would be over 2.5 million saved and so would Sam Koch if he were to be cut. That's 5 million+. If Jimmy, Yanda, or Ngata are extended then that could open up close to 10 million. There are other moves that could be made as well like cutting Daryl Smith or Jacoby Jones, although they are more likely to be cut after 2015.

 

I'm not saying we can afford to pay everybody. I'm saying there are not many FAs that need to be paid, but McPhee is one of them and the Ravens are capable of giving him a reasonable contract. It's that simple.

 

Torrey Smith isn't easily replaced, but a first or second round WR has a very good shot of replicating his performance and likely surpassing it. 

 

And to your last point, if Torrey Smith was going to get Mike Wallace Money ( which he won't because he isn't nearly as good and has not come anywhere close to Wallace's production), there is ZERO chance he would get it from the Ravens because that is a ridiculous overpay. Torrey will be looking at the kind of contract Eric Decker got if he is lucky ( 5 years for around $35M)

[ravensdan]

From pff this week: the last part particularly interesting.

Pernell McPhee, ROLB: +5.1

Breakdown: Although McPhee might have played the majority of his snaps at outside linebacker he can line up anywhere for the Ravens and is a menace wherever they put him. The majority of McPhee’s grade came as a pass rusher where he recorded a hit and five hurries on 28 snaps. That’s just the official stat line too, as he beat another three blocks only to see the pass come out quickly. It was a positive game for McPhee as a run defender too as he recorded a stop and influenced a number of other plays 15 snaps.

Signature Stat: McPhee is currently seventh in pass rush productivity (10.6) amongst 3-4 outside linebackers.

[GrimCoconut]

Just saying...rotational players have left teams before and received big pay days, especially when they're pass rushers. I wouldn't rule out anything. Shoot, you never know. A team could love McPhee and give him $6M and make us all look stupid and themselves.

[rmcjacket23]

Actually there is thing called rollover, and the Ravens have close to 7 million in cap room that will be added on because of it. So no, you're wrong.

 

Canty would be over 2.5 million saved and so would Sam Koch if he were to be cut. That's 5 million+. If Jimmy, Yanda, or Ngata are extended then that could open up close to 10 million. There are other moves that could be made as well like cutting Daryl Smith or Jacoby Jones, although they are more likely to be cut after 2015.

 

I'm not saying we can afford to pay everybody. I'm saying there are not many FAs that need to be paid, but McPhee is one of them and the Ravens are capable of giving him a reasonable contract. It's that simple.

 

Torrey Smith isn't easily replaced, but a first or second round WR has a very good shot of replicating his performance and likely surpassing it. 

 

And to your last point, if Torrey Smith was going to get Mike Wallace Money ( which he won't because he isn't nearly as good and has not come anywhere close to Wallace's production), there is ZERO chance he would get it from the Ravens because that is a ridiculous overpay. Torrey will be looking at the kind of contract Eric Decker got if he is lucky ( 5 years for around $35M)

The difference between Torrey Smith and Mike Wallace in their first contracts is about 70 yards a season, or approximately 4.5 yards per game.

[rmw10]

I'd love to keep McPhee around.  I love what we're doing with him by moving him all over and maximizing his skill set.  Having a guy that can create interior pressure is invaluable.  I'm hoping that we can keep him but I can easily see some other team overpaying.

[gabefergy]

The difference between Torrey Smith and Mike Wallace in their first contracts is about 70 yards a season, or approximately 4.5 yards per game.

Wallace had 32 TDs in his first 4 years. Torrey is at 20, on pace for 23. That's a pretty sizeable difference.

[52520Andrew]

Kruger was primarily a third down pass rusher for us and Doom is primarily a third down pass rusher for us so the assumption that a third down pass rusher for a team can't get decent money is a bit off IMO. I would love to keep McPhee but it will depend on what other teams want from him on the market. I would love it if he stays a bit under the radar but I fear he is going to get something good from someone . The good news then is we would get a decent comp pick, still too early to tell right now however.

 

One other thing I have been thinking about is the fact that there are a lot of good WRs who could be on the market after this year. We all know Flacco generally does best with veteran guys so if we lose Torrey to another team or even if we keep Torrey(although if we do I don't think we do much there), does anyone think we become big players in that market?

[Inqui]

I'd love to keep McPhee around. I love what we're doing with him by moving him all over and maximizing his skill set. Having a guy that can create interior pressure is invaluable. I'm hoping that we can keep him but I can easily see some other team overpaying.

This was basically what I thought when I started reading the OP. Great guy to have on your roster, but it's easy to see someone else getting excited and overpaying, and then Ozzie letting him walk and grabbing a decent comp pick.

[Inqui]

One other thing I have been thinking about is the fact that there are a lot of good WRs who could be on the market after this year. We all know Flacco generally does best with veteran guys so if we lose Torrey to another team or even if we keep Torrey(although if we do I don't think we do much there), does anyone think we become big players in that market?

This is starting to get into the realms of warranting its own thread, but I think there are a couple of points to Ozzie's business model of keeping the veteran FAs ticking over:

1) They're more or less a sure thing. If you don't know what a guy's like after 13 years in the NFL, then you probably shouldn't be in an NFL front office.

2) Assuming they're on the downswing of their career, there's a low cost involved. You don't have to invest a high pick in them (so said picks can go to run-stuffing DTs and Alabama guys, which bust at a lower rate than WRs) and don't have to worry about paying them franchise-bloke money (so said cap money can go to run-stuffing DTs and Alabama guys).

 

I think that second point is huge. Be fun if we could grab Dez Bryant, and I'd probably rather that over anyone in the draft, but you'd best believe we'd be paying him "Dez Bryant money" and I can't see that working with the second part of Ozzie's business model.

[JoeyFlex5]

Wallace had 32 TDs in his first 4 years. Torrey is at 20, on pace for 23. That's a pretty sizeable difference.

in torreys defense, and i dont know about wallace in regards to this, but torrey has pulled an ungodly amount of PI's and probably should have pulled about 3-4 more per season that were no calls, and its not including the playoffs, also the steelers have been much more of a air it out team recently while the ravens have stayed balanced on offense, last year aside. 

 

and we also have to remember how many times joe has been about 1 yard off the mark on deep shots to torrey where hes either overthrown by just a little or underthrown enough to break torreys stride and allow a tackle near the goal line.

[RaineV1]

McPhee is good but I'm not too scared of losing him. The Ravens seem to have a knack for drafting linebackers or finding good, overlooked vets. We replaced Kruger, and we can replace McPhee if another team offers him a big contract.

[arnie_uk]

in torreys defense, and i dont know about wallace in regards to this, but torrey has pulled an ungodly amount of PI's and probably should have pulled about 3-4 more per season that were no calls, and its not including the playoffs, also the steelers have been much more of a air it out team recently while the ravens have stayed balanced on offense, last year aside.

and we also have to remember how many times joe has been about 1 yard off the mark on deep shots to torrey where hes either overthrown by just a little or underthrown enough to break torreys stride and allow a tackle near the goal line.

you can't say that with torrey Smith because you never know if he will catch it or not. Tbh if i was a cb i wouldn't pi him and contest fairly and make him catch the ball.

[beasy2487]

you can't say that with torrey Smith because you never know if he will catch it or not. Tbh if i was a cb i wouldn't pi him and contest fairly and make him catch the ball.

 

Mmm, Mike Wallace has a well documented issue with dropping the football. The year before he left the Steelers, he had four drops in a single game against the Bengals. You can make a case that Wallace is a better receiver than Torrey, but basing it on who has better hands is not evidence to the affirmative.

[arnie_uk]

Mmm, Mike Wallace has a well documented issue with dropping the football. The year before he left the Steelers, he had four drops in a single game against the Bengals. You can make a case that Wallace is a better receiver than Torrey, but basing it on who has better hands is not evidence to the affirmative.

i can't recall ever talking about wallace. All i said is that smith isn't a cert to catch those PIs

[beasy2487]

i can't recall ever talking about wallace. All i said is that smith isn't a cert to catch those PIs

 

Right, but the premise of the statement was in comparison to Wallace so I was just saying that if you're using the potential drop as a reason to say Torrey does not have similar value that's not a great indicator. The poster you quoted was making that comparison, I was just following the syllogism. 

[ravensfan160]

I really like McPhee but I see him becoming the next Kruger or Arthur Jones. Young players with pass rush skills get gobbled up in free agency.

 

Plus, the money might not even be a factor for him. He is like Kruger in that he isn't a starter now and it doesn't look like he will be next year as long as Suggs and Dumerville/Upshaw are here. He might leave just for the opportunity to start.

[JoeyFlex5]

you can't say that with torrey Smith because you never know if he will catch it or not. Tbh if i was a cb i wouldn't pi him and contest fairly and make him catch the ball.

torrey is bad at catching contested balls, the problem for opposing cb's is that when these PI's are drawn, he tends to have a step or 2 and there is no chance to fairly contest it. 

 

if torrey has a step on a db, and that ball makes it over said db's head while hes fairly contesting it, there are really 2 results, an overthrow, or a touchdown. 

 

torreys hands arent bad, he doesnt drop those balls often, although he does miss a few that hit him in the fingertips, but he shouldnt take all the blame there, an overthrow probably isnt easy to catch when youre running at a 4.41 rate with your head turned around, the ball needs to hit the hands, not the fingertips, many of torreys "drops" are actually overthrows. 

 

and if i was a db, i would honestly not wanna give up a long PI, but thats better than giving up a td, always, how many times have you seen torrey draw a long PI inside the 10 and then we stall out and settle for a fg? 

[rmcjacket23]

torrey is bad at catching contested balls, the problem for opposing cb's is that when these PI's are drawn, he tends to have a step or 2 and there is no chance to fairly contest it. 

 

if torrey has a step on a db, and that ball makes it over said db's head while hes fairly contesting it, there are really 2 results, an overthrow, or a touchdown. 

 

torreys hands arent bad, he doesnt drop those balls often, although he does miss a few that hit him in the fingertips, but he shouldnt take all the blame there, an overthrow probably isnt easy to catch when youre running at a 4.41 rate with your head turned around, the ball needs to hit the hands, not the fingertips, many of torreys "drops" are actually overthrows. 

 

and if i was a db, i would honestly not wanna give up a long PI, but thats better than giving up a td, always, how many times have you seen torrey draw a long PI inside the 10 and then we stall out and settle for a fg? 

Torrey's route running is by far his biggest weakness...

[gabefergy]

I really like McPhee but I see him becoming the next Kruger or Arthur Jones. Young players with pass rush skills get gobbled up in free agency.

 

Plus, the money might not even be a factor for him. He is like Kruger in that he isn't a starter now and it doesn't look like he will be next year as long as Suggs and Dumerville/Upshaw are here. He might leave just for the opportunity to start.

I could see that happening, and it would probably be one of the main reasons for him to find a home somewhere else (also money if some team offers him a big deal.

 

On the other hand Dumervil and Suggs are not getting any younger, so he could see a big opportunity here as well. 

[gabefergy]

in torreys defense, and i dont know about wallace in regards to this, but torrey has pulled an ungodly amount of PI's and probably should have pulled about 3-4 more per season that were no calls, and its not including the playoffs, also the steelers have been much more of a air it out team recently while the ravens have stayed balanced on offense, last year aside. 

 

and we also have to remember how many times joe has been about 1 yard off the mark on deep shots to torrey where hes either overthrown by just a little or underthrown enough to break torreys stride and allow a tackle near the goal line.

I'm not saying that Wallace is worlds better than Torrey, but he has been significantly more productive. Wallace was the #1 WR in Pittsburgh for pretty much the entire time he was there. Torrey was really only the #1 last year. I think Wallace go the contract he did because he had proven he could be that go to guy. Now that contract was a massive overpay, but I don't see Torrey getting close to that kind of money as a FA. 

 

Getting this back on topic, I think there could be room for both McPhee and Torrey depending on how the Ravens handle their cap. A couple of cuts and/or extensions and the Ravens will have a lot more cap room.

[beasy2487]

Torrey's route running is by far his biggest weakness...

 

I would add a layer to this and say that his ability to read the defense and adjust his route is his biggest weakness. You've already seen Smith Sr. make two huge plays on the scramble drill and we've never seen Torrey make a play like that. That's the ability to not just understand the play, the route, the depth, and the timing, but also the situation and the defense's reaction that situation. I have high hopes that Sr. instills in our younger guys.

[JoeyFlex5]

Torrey's route running is by far his biggest weakness...

i wasnt even referring to what his biggest weakness.. that was completely irrelevant to my point lol

[GrimCoconut]

I'm not saying that Wallace is worlds better than Torrey, but he has been significantly more productive. Wallace was the #1 WR in Pittsburgh for pretty much the entire time he was there. Torrey was really only the #1 last year. I think Wallace go the contract he did because he had proven he could be that go to guy. Now that contract was a massive overpay, but I don't see Torrey getting close to that kind of money as a FA.

Getting this back on topic, I think there could be room for both McPhee and Torrey depending on how the Ravens handle their cap. A couple of cuts and/or extensions and the Ravens will have a lot more cap room.

I think it's possible we can retain them both, sure. We can extend Jimmy Smith to reduce his $6M cap figure to a more friendly number and we can extend Justin Tucker much like Webb, possibly reduce his cap figure as well. He's a RFA next off-season and I assume he'll get at the very least a second round tender. That's around $2M. That's before cuts.

I guess my issue is beyond 2015 and more specifically 2016, when we'll have some significant free agents and that's when Joe's cap balloons. Yanda and KO are both free agents that year. Definitely a huge year for our free agents.

[hawkprey]

I think it's possible we can retain them both, sure. We can extend Jimmy Smith to reduce his $6M cap figure to a more friendly number and we can extend Justin Tucker much like Webb, possibly reduce his cap figure as well. He's a RFA next off-season and I assume he'll get at the very least a second round tender. That's around $2M. That's before cuts.

I guess my issue is beyond 2015 and more specifically 2016, when we'll have some significant free agents and that's when Joe's cap balloons. Yanda and KO are both free agents that year. Definitely a huge year for our free agents.

I'm not worried about losing free agents two years from now, because who knows who we'll draft or bring in 2 years down the line? I mean, we only have 6 starters from 2012 still on the team (Suggs, Ngata, Flacco, Yanda, Osemele and Torrey, I think, since Pitta is out).

[52520Andrew]

This is starting to get into the realms of warranting its own thread, but I think there are a couple of points to Ozzie's business model of keeping the veteran FAs ticking over:

1) They're more or less a sure thing. If you don't know what a guy's like after 13 years in the NFL, then you probably shouldn't be in an NFL front office.

2) Assuming they're on the downswing of their career, there's a low cost involved. You don't have to invest a high pick in them (so said picks can go to run-stuffing DTs and Alabama guys, which bust at a lower rate than WRs) and don't have to worry about paying them franchise-bloke money (so said cap money can go to run-stuffing DTs and Alabama guys).

 

I think that second point is huge. Be fun if we could grab Dez Bryant, and I'd probably rather that over anyone in the draft, but you'd best believe we'd be paying him "Dez Bryant money" and I can't see that working with the second part of Ozzie's business model.

 

Yeah probably once FA gets a bit closer I am sure we will see something pop up. Still it should be a really deep class overall and I could very easily see Ozzie getting someone if events fall a certain way although it depends on how Torrey does and if we want to/are able to keep him.

[GrimCoconut]

I'm not worried about losing free agents two years from now, because who knows who we'll draft or bring in 2 years down the line? I mean, we only have 6 starters from 2012 still on the team (Suggs, Ngata, Flacco, Yanda, Osemele and Torrey, I think, since Pitta is out).

Well, the Ravens certainly do, so when you're discussing the possibility of retaining McPhee and Torrey, it makes sense to discuss future cap availability, as that plays a role in decision-making. If the Ravens value their pair of guards more than Smith and McPhee, they'll prepare accordingly and prioritize and offer deals that are acceptable to their future plans.