A Quick Look At How Kubiak's Doing With this Offense

[callahan09]

To sum up what you're about to see (this is a rather simplistic analysis, so we're clear), this offense has been doing great, and is a HUGE improvement over last season, except in the red zone.  Let's take a look...

 

This season, outside of the red zone, we are gaining 6.24 yards per play which is 9th best in the NFL, and we have a 32.9% first down rate, which is 4th best in the NFL.  We have reached the red zone so consistently that we have already ran 47 plays in the red zone this season, which is the most in the NFL.

 

Compare this to last year when we gained just 4.84 yards per play (2nd worst in the NFL), and we had a 24.7% first down rate (3rd worst in the NFL).  Through the first 3 games of 2013, we had run just 26 plays in the red zone.

 

So we've seen a HUGE improvement in how we drive down the field.

 

Where we haven't seen an improvement, unfortunately, is in the red zone itself.

 

We are gaining just 1.66 yards per play in the red zone (5th worst in the NFL), while last year we gained 2.25 yards per play (although this was actually ranked worse than this year; 2nd worst in the NFL last year).

 

Of course yards per play numbers aren't as informative as the next two statistics when we're talking about the red zone...

 

We have just a 19.1% first down rate (touchdowns count as first downs) in the red zone (2nd worst) vs 23.4% last year (also 2nd worst last year).

 

And worst of all...

 

We have just a 10.6% touchdown rate in the red zone (worst in the NFL) vs 16.6% last year (5th worst last year).

 

So in conclusion, we're moving the ball like one of the best offenses in the NFL until we get into the red zone, where we've run the most plays in the NFL, but for the lowest touchdown rate.

 

HUGE improvement over last year's offense, but the red zone offense still looks the same (if not perhaps a little less efficient, surprisingly, in a small sample).

 

Another issue that needs to see an improvement is our short yardage situations.  We have converted a first down on just 55.6% of 1-yard-to-go situations, 5th worst in the NFL, although we have run the 2nd most plays in those situations.

 

This is almost identical to last year, where we ALSO faced the 2nd most such situations and had the 5th worst conversion percentage (and nearly the same percentage, at 56.9%).

 

Hopefully we can sort out our issues with red zone and short yardage situations, and if so, we could honestly have an offensive juggernaut on our hands!

 

Edit: Apologies for the typo in the title!

[Militant X 1]

Where we haven't seen an improvement, unfortunately, is in the red zone itself.

 

We have just a 10.6% touchdown rate in the red zone (worst in the NFL) vs 16.6% last year (5th worst last year).

 

So in conclusion, we're moving the ball like one of the best offenses in the NFL until we get into the red zone, where we've run the most plays in the NFL, but for the lowest touchdown rate.

 

Hopefully we can sort out our issues with red zone and short yardage situations, and if so, we could honestly have an offensive juggernaut on our hands!

 

 

^ This is why I'm not completely hooked on our offense at the moment.  Sure, I can see that they are playing better and that's great.  However, they got to get to the point where they man up and are confident enough in their game play to come away with TD's when they arrive in the redzone.

 

@Mili

[Blackbirds Rule]

^ This is why I'm not completely hooked on our offense at the moment.  Sure, I can see and give them their props for playing better.  However, they got to get to the point where they man up and are confident enough in their game play to come away with TD's when they arrive in the redzone.

 

@Mili

I think it'll come. I think we finally had a Marlon Brown sighting. I think between him in the redzone and pounding it with LT. We will start scoring more.

[acranfor]

Kubiak has actually been known for his red zone struggles in Houston. Overall, I think the short yardage and red zone struggles are linked. It is obviously in part to Kubiak's game plan, but it is also on Joe. He has missed various open receivers in the red zone as he typically focuses on his primary read.

 

In addition, Joe needs to do a better job at checking out of plays that are doomed from the start based on the defensive alignment. I am confident that we will get better in both areas.

[callahan09]

Kubiak has actually been known for his red zone struggles in Houston. Overall, I think the short yardage and red zone struggles are linked. It is obviously in part to Kubiak's game plan, but it is also on Joe. He has missed various open receivers in the red zone as he typically focuses on his primary read.

 

In addition, Joe needs to do a better job at checking out of plays that are doomed from the start based on the defensive alignment. I am confident that we will get better in both areas.

 

He might have struggled, but he's still been way better in the past than what we've gotten so far, so we should definitely be able to improve a lot from here.

 

In the cumulative years 2006-2013, while he was the head coach for Houston, his team was 30.7% on first down conversions in the red zone, and 18.2% in touchdown percentage.  That's a lot better in both numbers that what we've seen this year.

[callahan09]

Looking at it from drives instead of plays in the red zone, it's a bit worse... we're getting in the end zone on just 38.5% of our red zone possessions, compared to 46.2% last year.

 

Even last year was awful, when the NFL average was 57.4%, and we ranked 2nd to last in the NFL.

 

But this year, we are ranked 5th worst despite having a much lower percentage.  NFL average is 55.4% this year.

 

Kubiak was slight above average from 2006-2013 with the Texans, with a TD rate of 55.0% vs an NFL average of 54.4%, and his team ranked 11th.

 

(By the way, the Ravens ranked 7th worst, at 50%, during that span).

[PeRK82]

Ill be honest, im not sure i like alot of this questionable plays he is running.  The season opener game, it was 3 and 14 and it was thrown 4 yards if that with 2 defenders on the reciever.   HUH?

 

 

I was livid when it was 3 and 1 this past sunday  and we do a qb sneak then 4 and inches and instead of doing a qb sneak we run it.   Pretty sad, that im calling out what plays are going to happen to my gf sitting on my sofa, cant imagine how easy it must be for the opposing Def. Im just saying .....

[The Raven]

An old football coach once told me: "If you can't convert short yardage or score in the red zone, blame the line."

 

The red zone is about size and physicality. There's not enough room for receivers to get separation. It's too cramped down there. When you're in the red zone, specifically within the ten and on the goalline, you need to RUN the ball. And if you can't run it in, look at your oline.

[acranfor]

He might have struggled, but he's still been way better in the past than what we've gotten so far, so we should definitely be able to improve a lot from here.

 

In the cumulative years 2006-2013, while he was the head coach for Houston, his team was 30.7% on first down conversions in the red zone, and 18.2% in touchdown percentage.  That's a lot better in both numbers that what we've seen this year.

Totally agree. I like our offense so far this season.

[DomMcRaven]

Totally agree. I like our offense so far this season.

I'm liking our offense, but I STILL think it's a "work-in-progress" especially with the devastating loss of Pitta. 

[TDubbs]

Solid analysis and I think the Red Zone issues will be solved as the season moves on. As long as Kubiak stops it with the QB sneaks I'm happy with every thing else. I can't stand those QB sneaks and its forcing Joe to take unnecessary punishment. 

[HoldingCall]

Clearly, the offense still have adjusts to make.  

[H8R]

I think we'll get better in the redzone, its just a small sample size right now. Also, I'd like to know how the teams we've played are in Redzone defense, I'd say they're probably in the upper part of the league. There's always both sides of the coin to consider. Flacco has missed a few throws in the endzone and some have been drops also. As a team, they all need to be better. The oline hasnt always played particularly well , and has been pushed back a bit in  the goal-2 go. I do like the wideopen TD's with misdirection though.

[RobFuseRaven]

I believe as the year goes on and we figure stuff out, the red zone percentage will improve. I still love this offense infinitely more than last year.

[redrum52]

Kubiak has actually been known for his red zone struggles in Houston. Overall, I think the short yardage and red zone struggles are linked. It is obviously in part to Kubiak's game plan, but it is also on Joe. He has missed various open receivers in the red zone as he typically focuses on his primary read.

In addition, Joe needs to do a better job at checking out of plays that are doomed from the start based on the defensive alignment. I am confident that we will get better in both areas.

Heard Texans fans complain about this prior and they had Andre.

Joe does need to stop locking onto guys. Funny that our offense is the opposite to our defense, where they'll hold in the red zone but give up yards.

[Gordo52]

Clearly, the offense still have adjusts to make.

Especially after losing one of the featured players.

Juice & Gilmore will be more involved but I hope we also do more 3 WR sets with Brown/ Camp and Joe in the gun.

[callahan09]

I think we'll get better in the redzone, its just a small sample size right now. Also, I'd like to know how the teams we've played are in Redzone defense, I'd say they're probably in the upper part of the league. There's always both sides of the coin to consider. Flacco has missed a few throws in the endzone and some have been drops also. As a team, they all need to be better. The oline hasnt always played particularly well , and has been pushed back a bit in  the goal-2 go. I do like the wideopen TD's with misdirection though.

 

The Bengals, Steelers, and Browns have combined to allow 14 TDs out of 26 opponent red zone drives, for a 53.8% rate.  NFL average is 55.6%, so they are right around average or slightly better, but not by much.

 

The thing is, even though they're allowing 53.8% of red zone drives to end in a TD, we are 5 for 14 for 38.5% against them.

 

Which means they have allowed 9 TDs on 13 red zone drives against the other opponents they have played (that's 69.2%).

 

So in 6 games against other teams, they allow 69.2% of red zone drives to end in a TD, but we only have 38.5% against them in 3 games.

 

Honestly, that stinks!

[callahan09]

Fortunately, we're getting off to pretty quick starts in games, offensively.  That's a good turnaround from last year.

 

First drives of games we are averaging 10 plays (2nd best), 57 yards (3rd best), and we've scored 2 out of 3 times (T-3rd best).  We are also 4th in time of possession (4:57 per opening drive).

 

Last year we were bottom 5 in ALL of those categories.

[ravens rule]

Offense is pretty good right now and like somebody' said red zone offense is still an issue. I feel like we scared to use wideouts in the endzone. I mean is it our talent at the position or flacco keeping it conservative and trying not to make a mistake ?

[ravens rule]

Also wanna add marlon brown is 6'5 throw him some jump balls dammit. How about bubble screens to Smith Sr. Who doesn't go down easily. Man without pitta we are literally back to what we had last year except for smith sr.

[beasy2487]

Offense is pretty good right now and like somebody' said red zone offense is still an issue. I feel like we scared to use wideouts in the endzone. I mean is it our talent at the position or flacco keeping it conservative and trying not to make a mistake ?

 

I think it's a mix of scheme, personnel, and Flacco having the yips a little bit when it comes to making the big mistake. The mistakes he's made this year have come from pressure (even you can even call it a mistake when you get hit as you throw), but otherwise he is just not gambling like he did last year. His reads are also much more fundamental so I think he's less apt to try to make something happen down there and content to settle for the FG instead of turning it over, given the choice. Combine that with the fact that (prior to Sunday), we liked our TE personnel in goal-to-go situations because of the added flexibility b/w run and pass combined with their catch radius. I am confident they'll get it resolved though.

[beasy2487]

Also wanna add marlon brown is 6'5 throw him some jump balls dammit. How about bubble screens to Smith Sr. Who doesn't go down easily. Man without pitta we are literally back to what we had last year except for smith sr.

 

If by "literally" you mean "3 of the pass catchers are the same and no one else is" then yes, we are literally the same without Pitta.

[ravens rule]

I think it's a mix of scheme, personnel, and Flacco having the yips a little bit when it comes to making the big mistake. The mistakes he's made this year have come from pressure (even you can even call it a mistake when you get hit as you throw), but otherwise he is just not gambling like he did last year. His reads are also much more fundamental so I think he's less apt to try to make something happen down there and content to settle for the FG instead of turning it over, given the choice. Combine that with the fact that (prior to Sunday), we liked our TE personnel in goal-to-go situations because of the added flexibility b/w run and pass combined with their catch radius. I am confident they'll get it resolved though.

I'm sure they will fix it but Joe will have to gamble a little bit and throw in really tight windows or improvise like Ben, Rodgers, or Romo to score points for us I just don't want to kick FGs all game long like last season .

[DomMcRaven]

Also wanna add marlon brown is 6'5 throw him some jump balls dammit. How about bubble screens to Smith Sr. Who doesn't go down easily. Man without pitta we are literally back to what we had last year except for smith sr.

Well at least we have Kubiak instead of Caldwell. 

[Runnin Raven]

Stepping back, I know I expected some early season bumps in the road.  I'd say we're doing as well as I could have hoped on offense.  Tighten up a few things as the guys gain game experience with it and I think we'll start rollin.

[ravens rule]

Well at least we have Kubiak instead of Caldwell.

Yea I expect us to move the ball no doubt but we need 7 often.

[DomMcRaven]

Yea I expect us to move the ball no doubt but we need 7 often.

Indeed because the Panthers aren't going to play as bad. You kidding? Against us? Nope.

[hn68wb4]

^ This is why I'm not completely hooked on our offense at the moment.  Sure, I can see that they are playing better and that's great.  However, they got to get to the point where they man up and are confident enough in their game play to come away with TD's when they arrive in the redzone.

 

@Mili

Hopefully LT will start getting the ball down in the red zone, i was livid when Forsett came in when we were in the red zone, i get that he is a better receiver out of the back field but come on, goal to go needs to be power running time, and what with these Flacco sneaks? i just don't get why you would run those even goal to go at the 1, i would never do that with a franchise QB who generally isn't known for that sort of stuff.

Also, i don't like that we are playing Boldin plays with Smith Sr., he's great and tough and all but Smith Sr. isn't Boldin, Boldin was stronger and had better hands, run those plays with Brown or a TE, Smith Sr. shouldn't be the guy for those plays deep in the red zone.

I just don't like the play calling in the red zone, granted my position is easier than Kubes, knowing whether the play failed or not, for him its a bit more complicated than that, but, as i said earlier, i don't get the plays that are being called deep in the red zone, too many passes in goal to go situations and too much Forsett too, bring in the big man and he'll knock it in

 

But what you do have to like is that the Offense is at least holding on to the ball and giving the D a rest, last year our defense would have been pretty darn good if they werent in every couple minutes because of the offense going 3 and out.

[hn68wb4]

I'm sure they will fix it but Joe will have to gamble a little bit and throw in really tight windows or improvise like Ben, Rodgers, or Romo to score points for us I just don't want to kick FGs all game long like last season .

no thanks, we saw gamblin man Flacco last year, ill keep nice efficient Flacco. Just need smarter play calls - i.e. don't throw it in goal to go situations, don't run Forsett in g2g situations, run LT in g2g, if you must throw it then don't throw a jump ball to Smith Sr., go for Brown or a TE, don't run QB sneaks - i genuinely hate seeing Kubes run that play g2g, twice now Flacco has gotten absolutely nailed by a LB taking the opportunity to pop our QB, Flacco is big and strong but he is our franchise QB, the last thing we need is for him to get hurt

[Tenacious Faulker]

Kubiak has actually been known for his red zone struggles in Houston. Overall, I think the short yardage and red zone struggles are linked. It is obviously in part to Kubiak's game plan, but it is also on Joe. He has missed various open receivers in the red zone as he typically focuses on his primary read.

 

In addition, Joe needs to do a better job at checking out of plays that are doomed from the start based on the defensive alignment. I am confident that we will get better in both areas.

I'm seeing pretty good production on field with Flacco.  The ball is getting moved - at least between the 20's - better.  Kubiak's offenses were always about moving the ball with high percentage pass plays then pounding it in the end zone with an RB,  

 

As far as the red zone stall, give it some time.  It's the first year w/a new offense with few new faces.  If I recall right, 2013 was worse than this year for finishing drives in a TD.  There were other years like that too.