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Preseason Stats and What to Expect in 2014


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#1 hawkprey

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Posted 29 August 2014 - 06:31 PM

The Ravens end the preseason with meaningless preseason stats. Are these numbers indicators or irrelevant?

 

Here are the results:

 

1. In the preseason, the Ravens led the league in rushing yards and attempts. At 4.4 yards/game, the Ravens were about 42% more efficient than last year.

Preseason history: The Bills lead the league in preseason and regular season rushing attempts last year and the Seahawks were #1 then #2 in 2012. We should expect our run-heavy offense to continue.

 

Ravens history: Preseason to regular season rushing ypc: 3.6 to 3.8 in 2010, 4.6 to 4.3 in 2011, 4.3 to 4.3 in 2012, 3.0 to 3.1 in 2013. That's a 97% correlation. Mathematically, the Ravens should expect 4.3 yards per carry.

 

 

2. Flacco ended the preseason with a passer rating of 102.5.

Ravens history: Flacco's 2012 preseason rating doesn't match his 2012 regular season rating, but if we average the regular season with the playoffs (telling ourselves that preseason was a mix of both coordinators), here are the numbers: 93.4 to 88.9 in 2009, 90.9 to 93.6 in 2010, 82.7 to 80.9 in 2011, 101.6 to 102.5 in 2012, 76 to 73.1 in 2013. Again, 97.1% correlation. By this model, Flacco's rating should be 103.4 this season.

 

3. On defense, the Ravens lead the league in yards allowed (245.8).

Preseason history: Last year, the 49ers, Redskins and Seahawks were the best defenses in the preseason. 2 of those 3 ranked in the top 5. Other than that, there doesn't seem to be much correlation between top defenses in preseason and regular season.

 

Ravens history: 323.5 to 318.9 in 2010, 323.0 to 288.0 in 2011, 366.0 to 350.9 in 2012, 335.5 to 315.8 in 2013. 87.6% correlation. The Ravens would average 217 yards per game allowed (which is ridiculous - don't expect this). In each of these last four years, the Ravens (and most teams) gave up more yards in the preseason than the regular season.

The reason for us leading the league is that teams playing the Ravens averaged a paltry 50 offensive plays per game, by far the lowest of any defense. If the run game continues in this fashion, the defense would be incredibly well-rested by the 4th quarter.

 

4. The Ravens averaged 5.2 yards per play on offense.

Ravens history: 4.8 to 5.1 in 2010, 5.0 to 5.2 in 2011, 5.1 to 5.4 in 2012, 4.8 to 4.5 in 2013. Correlation of .77.  That would leave us averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense. Not a whole lot of correlation, but it is the most we've averaged in the preseason since at least 2009 (I don't have the numbers). 

 

 

If you have any thoughts about what we've seen from the team so far and regular season expectations, post them here.


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#2 1/28/01

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Posted 29 August 2014 - 07:38 PM

Well, this was fun to read. Thanks for the effort on this. Seems what we see on the field during preseason, does statistically match (within reason) regular season. If that carries over again in 2014, watch out!
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#3 hn68wb4

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Posted 29 August 2014 - 07:55 PM

Interesting but should definitely be taken with a grain of salt. There usually is a big difference between Pre and regular season, while we played fantastic this preseason just remember that teams have gone undefeated in the preseason and then done nothing in the regular season; the preseason isn't useless but it isnt a great indicator of how the season will turn out considering alot of players played decent minutes in the preseason but will barely see the field if at all this season. Grain of salt


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#4 GrimCoconut

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Posted 29 August 2014 - 07:59 PM

I like what you did here! Nice job! I was wondering this earlier today myself. Kudos to you for taking the time to analyze it!


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#5 DomMcRaven

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Posted 29 August 2014 - 09:34 PM

The Ravens end the preseason with meaningless preseason stats. Are these numbers indicators or irrelevant?

 

Here are the results:

 

1. In the preseason, the Ravens led the league in rushing yards and attempts. At 4.4 yards/game, the Ravens were about 42% more efficient than last year.

Preseason history: The Bills lead the league in preseason and regular season rushing attempts last year and the Seahawks were #1 then #2 in 2012. We should expect our run-heavy offense to continue.

 

Ravens history: Preseason to regular season rushing ypc: 3.6 to 3.8 in 2010, 4.6 to 4.3 in 2011, 4.3 to 4.3 in 2012, 3.0 to 3.1 in 2013. That's a 97% correlation. Mathematically, the Ravens should expect 4.3 yards per carry.

 

 

2. Flacco ended the preseason with a passer rating of 102.5.

Ravens history: Flacco's 2012 preseason rating doesn't match his 2012 regular season rating, but if we average the regular season with the playoffs (telling ourselves that preseason was a mix of both coordinators), here are the numbers: 93.4 to 88.9 in 2009, 90.9 to 93.6 in 2010, 82.7 to 80.9 in 2011, 101.6 to 102.5 in 2012, 76 to 73.1 in 2013. Again, 97.1% correlation. By this model, Flacco's rating should be 103.4 this season.

 

3. On defense, the Ravens lead the league in yards allowed (245.8).

Preseason history: Last year, the 49ers, Redskins and Seahawks were the best defenses in the preseason. 2 of those 3 ranked in the top 5. Other than that, there doesn't seem to be much correlation between top defenses in preseason and regular season.

 

Ravens history: 323.5 to 318.9 in 2010, 323.0 to 288.0 in 2011, 366.0 to 350.9 in 2012, 335.5 to 315.8 in 2013. 87.6% correlation. The Ravens would average 217 yards per game allowed (which is ridiculous - don't expect this). In each of these last four years, the Ravens (and most teams) gave up more yards in the preseason than the regular season.

The reason for us leading the league is that teams playing the Ravens averaged a paltry 50 offensive plays per game, by far the lowest of any defense. If the run game continues in this fashion, the defense would be incredibly well-rested by the 4th quarter.

 

4. The Ravens averaged 5.2 yards per play on offense.

Ravens history: 4.8 to 5.1 in 2010, 5.0 to 5.2 in 2011, 5.1 to 5.4 in 2012, 4.8 to 4.5 in 2013. Correlation of .77.  That would leave us averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense. Not a whole lot of correlation, but it is the most we've averaged in the preseason since at least 2009 (I don't have the numbers). 

 

 

If you have any thoughts about what we've seen from the team so far and regular season expectations, post them here.

Very nice job! How did you calculate the correlation? This was really interesting to read though!


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#6 hawkprey

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Posted 29 August 2014 - 11:44 PM

Very nice job! How did you calculate the correlation? This was really interesting to read though!

Thanks. Just a basic online linear regression calculator. The preseason stats are the independent variable, and the resulting regular season stats are the dependent (y) variable. The projected value is based on the line of best fit.


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#7 PolishRifle

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Posted 30 August 2014 - 12:10 AM

People love to say "it's just preseason", but last year we got a pretty good preview on how bad our team, especially the offense, would look. I feel pretty good about us going into the regular season. Flacco looked sharp, the running game made a comeback and the defense was, for the most part, solid. We won't know for sure until we play the Bengals next week, but there are things we can be excited about on this team.


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#8 Militant X 1

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Posted 30 August 2014 - 12:50 AM

People love to say "it's just preseason", but last year we got a pretty good preview on how bad our team, especially the offense, would look. I feel pretty good about us going into the regular season. Flacco looked sharp, the running game made a comeback and the defense was, for the most part, solid. We won't know for sure until we play the Bengals next week, but there are things we can be excited about on this team.

 

Now, I agree with this!  I've said this many times....that how the Ravens offense (in particular) plays during the preseason can also set the precedent for their gameplay the entire regular season.  So they were 4-0 in the regular season huh?  Ok!  Let's see how they do now that the games are for real and mean something!

 

#Mili


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