Torrey Smith / Andre Johnson Value?

[BmoreBird22]

Yeah.. The Texans want a first rounder....

 

Time to mess up their fax machine

Have to start high, I guess, like they did during the draft

[Bltravens]

***DISCLAIMER***

 

If he was in his prime, I'd totally trade a first for him. You wouldn't get a better WR in the draft

You wouldn't get a better receiver over an entire decade outside of Megatron.

[0_o]

Been awhile since i've checked in...How'd you guys like the draft? We stepped up to the plate and hit a grandslam this year. Although skimming through the forum boards it appears the majority of people haven't realized how special this group is just yet. In due time i guess..put it to you this way, if extra +'s were allowed this draft would be an A++ in terms of value.

 

Anyway, im really here to breakdown Andre Johnson's soon to be tenure as a Baltimore Raven and what it's going to take to acquire him.

 

For one let's talk about his contract and it's impact on the Texans Salary Cap. 

 

Andre Johnson has about $34.5 Million remaining on his contract over the next 3 years, which occupies about $46 Million in cap space. Quite a hefty price tage for an aging wr on a team that's rebuilding. This year he's due to earn $10 Million in base salary, a $1 million roster bonus and will count $15.6M against their 2014 cap. 

 

If the Texans were to release him today they would trigger an accelerated cap hit of about $12M (the prorated bonus of his final 3 years) that would immediately count against their current cap, only saving slightly over $3.6M in cap space. That's not enough cap to warrant releasing their premier Wr and biggest playmaker on offense. However, if they waited until after June 1st to trade him, the accelerated cap hit could then be spread out over the next 2 years, lessening the hit. This year they would absorb only $4.6M in cap (the prorated bonus scheduled for 2014) and $7.3M would accelerate to next years Salary Cap (prorated bonuses of 2015, $4.64M & 2016, $2.67M ). 

 

By trading Andre Johnson after June 1st, the Texans would save $11 Million in cash and $11.5M in Cap Space as well as acquire any future draft picks and/or players of value.

 

So how does this impact us? Well, for one, we would have to make a fair trade with Rick Smith (who just so happens to be one of Ozzie's closest friends). Two, the trade would have to be of value...most likely draft picks. Three, Andre Johnson's contract would need to be renegotiated. 

 

Despite Andre Johnson counting $46M in cap space over the next 3 years for the Texans, if traded to Baltimore, we would only be responsible for $34.5M (given he played out his entire tenure) 

 

Assuming Andre Johnson isn't willing to accept anything less than that, we would have to cleverly manipulate his contract to fit under our limited cap space. He's pretty much Guaranteed $11M this year and is due to make $11.5M next year. So with that in mind here's an example of how it could be done:

 

5 years / $43.5 Million including a $10M signing bonus and $21M guaranteed 

 

BS =  base salary

SB = signing bonus

OB = option bonus

 

(2014) SB: $2M + BS: $1M = $3M cap hit 

(2015) SB: $2M + OB: $2.25M + BS: $1M = $5.25M cap hit

(2016) SB: $2M + OB: $2.25M + BS: $5M = $9.25M cap hit

(2017) SB: $2M + OB: $2.25M + BS: $7.5M = $11.75M cap hit

------------------------------------------------------------------released

(2018) SB: $2M + OB: $2.25M + BS: $9.75 = $14M cap hit / $5.5M cap savings

 

 

 

Of course this is just a rough example of how a contract could be worked into our salary cap given we only have $6.2M in cap space. You can tweak the numbers however you'd like but the real questions are:  how much $$ would he be willing to sacrifice in order to play for a contender and how much value would we have to give in return to acquire him?

[rmw10]

Thread #87468 on this now...

[ravensnick]

I'd give up to a 3rd round pick and maybe McPhee

 Hopeful, could get him for a 4th or less and a backup.

[52520Andrew]

Thread #87468 on this now...

 

I thought it was #87469 but oh well

[beasy2487]

I thought it was #87469 but oh well

To be fair...it's only #64565 when you adjust for delusion.

[lgcs27288]

I liked the draft

[flynismo]

O_o, you obviously put a lot of time and thought into this post, but damn!

[52520Andrew]

With the thread jokes aside, I actually do agree with this. If Andre is willing to take a bit of a payday to play on a contender, I could really see us as a likely landing spot for him and as you showed, the numbers could easily work if we gave him a 2 year extension. Depends however on how much Houston wants for him, that is if they are even open to trading him and if another team is willing to offer more either in money for Andre or picks. We do not have a 5th or 6th rounder next year so we couldn't give up that additional pick unless we went with a 3rd and 4th which I don't think we would do.

[jazz1988]

With the thread jokes aside, I actually do agree with this. If Andre is willing to take a bit of a payday to play on a contender, I could really see us as a likely landing spot for him and as you showed, the numbers could easily work if we gave him a 2 year extension. Depends however on how much Houston wants for him, that is if they are even open to trading him and if another team is willing to offer more either in money for Andre or picks. We do not have a 5th or 6th rounder next year so we couldn't give up that additional pick unless we went with a 3rd and 4th which I don't think we would do.

 

Yeah I think Ozzie is done with giving up picks. I would be highly shock if we gave up even more picks this year.

[52520Andrew]

Yeah I think Ozzie is done with giving up picks. I would be highly shock if we gave up even more picks this year.

 

If we only had to give the 3rd or the 4th, I could see us doing it. We have become a bit more active in the trade market counting on our comp picks and for the 4th especially, we would be getting a comp in that round most likely anyways. Zuttah and Camp were traded for with the expectation that we would have a comp to make up for it. Really going to have to depend on the price however

[52520Andrew]

And there is merge #87468, that was only a matter of time lol

[sflegend89]

Andre Johnson makes Torrey Smith look like Yamon Figurs, so I make that deal in a heart beat.  Let someone else be holding the bag when Torrey's speed goes and he becomes completely ineffective.

 

[flynismo]

Since we clearly live in a fantasy world where money is no object, the salary cap is as real as Santa, players dont start declining in their mid 30s, and our FO was going to trade Torrey anyway, why stop at AJ? Let's trade for Megatron.

What, he's not on the trade block? Who cares, this is fantasy world, remember??

[K-Dog]

Santa what?

[0_o]

Since we clearly live in a fantasy world where money is no object, the salary cap is as real as Santa, players dont start declining in their mid 30s, and our FO was going to trade Torrey anyway, why stop at AJ? Let's trade for Megatron.

What, he's not on the trade block? Who cares, this is fantasy world, remember??

 

Anyone who thinks we would trade Torrey for Andre is unrealistic and naive at best. Anyone who thinks Andre Johnson isn't worth having on our team is just foolish...

 

On a side note, Santa brought me a brand new High Def flat screen this year for my bedroom. So I have no beef with Saint Nick. 

[ravensdfan]

Since we clearly live in a fantasy world where money is no object, the salary cap is as real as Santa, players dont start declining in their mid 30s, and our FO was going to trade Torrey anyway, why stop at AJ? Let's trade for Megatron.

What, he's not on the trade block? Who cares, this is fantasy world, remember??

 

It's the off season - fantasies are healthy as long as the lines don't get blurred.

 

And I wouldn't be dragging Santa into this or you'll find dog poop in your stocking. (coal is no longer allowed - pollution and all that jazz).

[Gordo52]

I like our guys.

[flynismo]

It's the off season - fantasies are healthy as long as the lines don't get blurred.

And I wouldn't be dragging Santa into this or you'll find dog poop in your stocking. (coal is no longer allowed - pollution and all that jazz).

And you're right, let's give this AJ thing a whirl. Let's assume somehow, someway, we found a way to fit AJ under the cap without hurting our team. What does everyone think his value is? Or rather, what would you give up for him?

I'd give HOU a 3rd, and if we really had to, toss in .... I dunno...that's another problem....we don't seem like a good match as trade partners. That's probably why someone said McPhee....HOU could use him, and losing McPhee won't kill us.

[H8R]

Andre Johnson , in a second... Torrey is a decent WR, but AJ, even in decline will outperform Torrey for another 3-4years.

[TDubbs]

I wish this was an Andre Johnson only thread lol. I don't see why Torrey's name should be brought up on trade thoughts and compared to AJ. We always complain about drafting WR's yet we've actually drafted a home grown one in Torrey and want to speculate about trading him for a 30+ guy? Strange ... 

[RavensDE]

Andre carries 11mil in dead money for the Texans if he is cut or traded.  That pretty much kills any chance of him going anywhere.  Case closed.

 

Torrey is going to get a contract extension and be a building block for the Ravens moving forward. Young and talented with a strong work ethic and the highest of moral fibers.  The only way Oz lets him get away is if he demands top flight money (which is his right) because when Moriarty sets a number on a guy we don't budge.  It's possible he reaches the open market and cashes in but he is very likely to be a Raven for at least 4 or 5 more years. 

[ellicottraven]

Andre Johnson is an elite receiver by any standard. Torrey Smith is an up and coming receiver who had his first 1000 yard season last year. To compare him to Johnson is very unfair to both players.

Andre Johnson is a total receiver and one of the best in past decade. Torrey isn't and is basically a deep threat and evolving as a complete receiver. He may never ever be in the league of Andre Johnson, but that is okay. Would I exchange Torrey for Andre. Probably not at this point in Andre's career. However, if it was 2 yrs earlier with the present day Torrey, I would have. At that point we may have gotten 5-6 yrs of a dynamic Andre Johnson, but right now we may only get a couple unless he turns in a Tony Gonzalez type career.

[ravensdfan]

And you're right, let's give this AJ thing a whirl. Let's assume somehow, someway, we found a way to fit AJ under the cap without hurting our team. What does everyone think his value is? Or rather, what would you give up for him?

I'd give HOU a 3rd, and if we really had to, toss in .... I dunno...that's another problem....we don't seem like a good match as trade partners. That's probably why someone said McPhee....HOU could use him, and losing McPhee won't kill us.

 

I wouldn't go higher than a 3rd for him - only because of his age. Certainly losing McPhee wouldn't kill us - but I'm not willing to throw Torrey in for him.

 

I was thinking more if we could fleece them like we did the Jags. Have them eat most of his money and restructure what remained to get his cap hit down to manageable.

 

Sure it's a fantasy - but it's a nice one for the off season.

[Tru11]

the texans dont need a player like mcphee and torrey is the first drafted WR that is producing for us.

 

if you want to trade torrey get megatron , fitz or AJ lol

[SecretAgentMan]

I might consider a second rounder...... He may be old, but he's still a top 10 WR.

For the record, even as he's declining, Ngata still warrants that.

But not a first rounder

[display name]

the texans dont need a player like mcphee and torrey is the first drafted WR that is producing for us.

 

if you want to trade torrey get megatron , fitz or AJ lol

I don't  think that Detroit, Arizona, and Cincinnati (if you meant A.J. Green) will be willing to trade those players any time soon.

[BSHU_Miami]

Yeah I would give up a second. We will have comp picks and low picks in each round so it'll be worth it. I think we should sign Torrey smith before we even think of this move first though. Andre, and Steve two hungry WR for a ring.

Good fantasy

[0_o]

Or rather, what would you give up for him?

I'd give HOU a 3rd, and if we really had to, toss in .... I dunno...that's another problem....we don't seem like a good match as trade partners. That's probably why someone said McPhee....HOU could use him, and losing McPhee won't kill us.

 

3rd round pick is reasonable maybe an additional late round pick. Remember Anquan was moved for a 6th round pick when he was 32. As far as cap, that's not a problem. Cap can be as flexible as you want to make it. The main issue Andre has with the team is their lack of commitment to winning right now. They didn't address the QB situation, which is likely going to take another year or 2 to fully resolve. He doesn't want to wait through the growing pains of a young rookie's development and he doesn't want to learn a new offense for a team that hasn't shown signs of building a contending roster. Also, the writing is on the wall with his current deal. After this year he's likely to be cut due to his back-loaded contract, which, is another year of his value diminishing on the market. The Patriots will make a push but Baltimore would be the front runners.

 

This is where we have the advantage with Gary Kubiak's offense - 1.) He already knows it, 2.) Flacco is a major upgrade over Schaub - and he knows it, 3.) He's very familiar with our post-season success, 4.) The Castle is a Veteran Paradise, 5.) He want's to win now, 6.) Gary Kubiak, 7.) Gary Kubiak, 8.) Gary Kubiak, 9.) Rick Smith and Ozzie are very, very close. Scratch my back I'll throw you a 3rd round pick to scratch yours...that kind of thing.

 

People wonder why receiver wasn't as a big of a priority as some thought it should've been...well, maybe it's because there are plans on the back burner that won't take affect until after the June 1st designation....where comp picks and accelerated salary cap won't factor in