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What's the chance of Ozzie Newsome trading out of 1st round of Draft?


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#1 DocMartin

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:28 PM

I say IT IS A VERY BIG CHANCE. Let me explain
Ravens have picks in 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th round, Total of FOUR PICKS. THAT IS UNSUALLY LOW. I know some you say, well we will be getting Compensatory picks as well, but no-one knows how many and in what round, 6th or 7th?
a) Based on our team needs, we definitely NEED MORE THAN FOUR PICKS - TE, FS. RT or LT, WR, DT or DE, CB. So, at least 6 Picks to be comfortable.
Keep in mind we have none in 4th and 5th which is where we could get some good players for depth.
B) Our biggest need was to get Top Quality WR and by signing Steve Smith, we have accomplished that, Kudos to Ozzie. So we don't have to spent 1st or 2nd pick on WR. We might get one in later.round and we also still have Mellette, 7th rounder from last year.
c) When you pick player in 1st round, you usually expect him to be a starter, so who do Ravens need as a starter? Not WR, not TE, not CB. Maybe FS, but couldn't they pick one in 2nd round?
d) Do we still remember the "epic deal" Ozzie made with Broncos when he traded Ravens 1st round pick for Broncos 3 picks? I guess they wanted Tebow bad, didn't they? And how many picks did Ravens have that year? It was more than Four»»»» just saying
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#2 ravensfan2430

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:31 PM

Around 16.5%, trending upwards from yesterdays 16.3%


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#3 The Raven

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:44 PM

I guarantee we're trading down.


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#4 shaneomatic

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:49 PM

were only trading down because pryor and dix are gone before we pick, and ozzie wont go offensive weapon first round.


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#5 GrimCoconut

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:51 PM

I think it's highly likely for a number of reasons. There's a lot of value in this draft but I only see a few truly elite players and I expect them gone before we select. So, I would trade down some (not OUT of the first but definitely from 17) and acquire more picks, since we could use more depth in certain areas as well as starters. Then, use some of those late round picks to move up our middle-round picks. 


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#6 Static

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:57 PM

were only trading down because pryor and dix are gone before we pick, and ozzie wont go offensive weapon first round.


I doubt that because Dix and Pryor are reaches even @ 17.
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#7 omar586

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:04 PM

I say IT IS A VERY BIG CHANCE. Let me explain
Ravens have picks in 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th round, Total of FOUR PICKS. THAT IS UNSUALLY LOW. I know some you say, well we will be getting Compensatory picks as well, but no-one knows how many and in what round, 6th or 7th?
a) Based on our team needs, we definitely NEED MORE THAN FOUR PICKS - TE, FS. RT or LT, WR, DT or DE, CB. So, at least 6 Picks to be comfortable.
Keep in mind we have none in 4th and 5th which is where we could get some good players for depth.
B) Our biggest need was to get Top Quality WR and by signing Steve Smith, we have accomplished that, Kudos to Ozzie. So we don't have to spent 1st or 2nd pick on WR. We might get one in later.round and we also still have Mellette, 7th rounder from last year.
c) When you pick player in 1st round, you usually expect him to be a starter, so who do Ravens need as a starter? Not WR, not TE, not CB. Maybe FS, but couldn't they pick one in 2nd round?
d) Do we still remember the "epic deal" Ozzie made with Broncos when he traded Ravens 1st round pick for Broncos 3 picks? I guess they wanted Tebow bad, didn't they? And how many picks did Ravens have that year? It was more than Four»»»» just saying

i see Ozzie  trading out of the 1st round unless a bigtime Tackle or FS falls to 17. ozzie is more likely to trade down than up.


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#8 shaneomatic

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:13 PM

I doubt that because Dix and Pryor are reaches even @ 17.

 

I agree 100%, and I dont want us to take either, i want Ebron or Marquis Lee at 17, but with FS being so slim this free agency, I can see some teams being desperate.  Its always easy for us to say a player is a reach, but its also so common for general managers to pre and pull the trigger on someone way too early (workaholics reference).


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#9 hawkprey

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:15 PM

On the contrary, I think the FO knows it's time for a legit playmaker. We've gone years without a top 25 player and the team is lacking starpower. I'm not against trading down but I think we all know that this is our best chance of landing a high talent player (on either side of the ball). 

 

Once comp picks are assigned, we'll have a lot more selections and probably won't feel the need for more picks. 

 

We already have a lot of mid-to-low round players on rookie contracts who have yet to prove themselves, and we don't necessarily need more. We just need them to seize the opportunity.

 

Most of it depends on what offers we get and how the draft pans out. Honestly I see the FO leaning towards staying put and grabbing a top graded player now that they finally have the chance.


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#10 BmoreBird22

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:30 PM

Questions like this are ridiculous because a team would have to want to trade up at least 16 spots to get the Ravens first round pick and have them trade out of the first. That's a ton of picks to give up to move up to 17 overall. You also have to consider this is a very deep draft, so will a team really want to move out of the second round and back into the first?

We can all say Ozzie wants to move back, but does a team want to move up? Plus, you're talking about us having just four picks before comps (highly likely we get two fourths (possibly even a third for Kruger if we're lucky), a fifth, and a sixth or seventh). Why would a team want to move up that far and give up several picks. The Broncos made a similar jump to get Tim Tebow, but consider how much more weight the 17th overall pick holds. If you didn't know, it's an additional third round pick.

Don't count on Ozzie moving out of the first round because a team would have to want to move up and the price would definitely be too steep. Maybe moving back a few spots with a team like Carolina, but let's be realistic.


Edited by BmoreBird22, 18 March 2014 - 11:31 PM.

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#11 EnVy_CaLiBeR

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:37 PM

On the contrary, I think the FO knows it's time for a legit playmaker. We've gone years without a top 25 player and the team is lacking starpower. I'm not against trading down but I think we all know that this is our best chance of landing a high talent player (on either side of the ball). 

 

Once comp picks are assigned, we'll have a lot more selections and probably won't feel the need for more picks. 

 

We already have a lot of mid-to-low round players on rookie contracts who have yet to prove themselves, and we don't necessarily need more. We just need them to seize the opportunity.

 

Most of it depends on what offers we get and how the draft pans out. Honestly I see the FO leaning towards staying put and grabbing a top graded player now that they finally have the chance.

 

Good post and couldn't have said it any better. If someone falls to 17 that Ozzie likes (there is a good chance that happens especially with the reaches that occur with other teams), then I think Ozzie will stay put and attempt to pick up a playmaker. 


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#12 Static

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:50 PM

You guys put way too much stock in drafting high. You aren't garunteed a 'playmaker' just because you draft high. In every draft we , and other teams , get gems from mid and late rounds. Marlon Brown was undrafted last year and you'd be surprised where some current and past probowlers were drafted.

This is the perfect draft to trade back because it's deep but features few 'elite' prospects.

Edited by Static, 18 March 2014 - 11:52 PM.

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#13 JoeyFlex5

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 12:10 AM

i stand firm on saying i want marqise lee at 17. but i see ozzie trading back. by the way were getting 4 comp picks, and if im not mistaken were supposed to get at least a 4th and a 5th. also steve smith is not a "top quality WR" he is a stop gap veteran who can help us out in case we cant find a productive rookie starter at WR in the draft. one more, aaron mellette has shown us nothing besides a few catches against backups, no reason to pass on a good WR because we have unreasonable expectations for the guy. 

 

like i said i predict we are gonna trade back, my hope is just that we dont take pryor or haha with our first, they are both better fits at SS than FS and i think haha is seriously overrated. pryor seems like he could definitely play FS but he reminds me a lot of matt elam the way he is always in the mix to make the big hit, but he wraps up even less than elam. pryor will be gone at 17, and if we could have traded back and got him later id be ok with it, but it wont happen, and i REALLY hope we dont take dix in the first, he is a first rounder by default because the safety class is so weak. 

 

as long as we dont trade up for mike evans, and as long as we dont take dix in the first, im pretty much happy with anything, im just really hoping for lee.


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#14 ravensdan

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 12:49 AM

Zero chance we trade OUT of the first round. No way we move that far. And there is no way there's a player another team would need to move up that high for. A trade back is likely. But personally I am looking in the range of no further than 22. Five spots for a later round choice.
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#15 dhstandard

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 12:51 AM

The fact is, most guys will be gone by the time we pick. Lee and Evans WILL be gone.  Pittsburgh will steal our guy once they pick.  I see them getting Ebron before we do.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if we trade back even if the guy we want is on the board.  It's what Ozzie does.  I won't be surprised if Ha-Ha is taken unless we pick up a FS in free agency before the draft.


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#16 Maryland

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:58 AM

You guys put way too much stock in drafting high. You aren't garunteed a 'playmaker' just because you draft high. In every draft we , and other teams , get gems from mid and late rounds. Marlon Brown was undrafted last year and you'd be surprised where some current and past probowlers were drafted.

This is the perfect draft to trade back because it's deep but features few 'elite' prospects.

To your point, 70% of pro-bowlers were drafted after the 1st round. 

 

Of course, the first round isn’t the only place where you can obtain top-tier talent. A 2012 study by the Sporting News, going back over a decade of drafts, found that almost 70 percent of the players who earned Pro Bowl selections were NOT first-round picks.


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#17 Hardbaugh

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 03:53 AM

On the contrary, I think the FO knows it's time for a legit playmaker. We've gone years without a top 25 player and the team is lacking starpower. I'm not against trading down but I think we all know that this is our best chance of landing a high talent player (on either side of the ball). 

 

Once comp picks are assigned, we'll have a lot more selections and probably won't feel the need for more picks. 

 

We already have a lot of mid-to-low round players on rookie contracts who have yet to prove themselves, and we don't necessarily need more. We just need them to seize the opportunity.

 

Most of it depends on what offers we get and how the draft pans out. Honestly I see the FO leaning towards staying put and grabbing a top graded player now that they finally have the chance.

I like what I'm reading here.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Ravens go up and get a targeted guy that starts to fall.  The great thing about these guys is they'll wargame potential scenarios, have a few irons in the fire regarding possible deals and generally leave no stone unturned. 

 

We know Oz likes to move back to secure more picks but I don't believe we'll be seeing it in round 1.. 


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#18 Tank 92

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 04:11 AM

I guarantee we're trading down.

 

 

Bet?   :)


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#19 Ravenslifer

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 05:21 AM

I say IT IS A VERY BIG CHANCE. Let me explain
Ravens have picks in 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th round, Total of FOUR PICKS. THAT IS UNSUALLY LOW. I know some you say, well we will be getting Compensatory picks as well, but no-one knows how many and in what round, 6th or 7th?
a) Based on our team needs, we definitely NEED MORE THAN FOUR PICKS - TE, FS. RT or LT, WR, DT or DE, CB. So, at least 6 Picks to be comfortable.
Keep in mind we have none in 4th and 5th which is where we could get some good players for depth.
B) Our biggest need was to get Top Quality WR and by signing Steve Smith, we have accomplished that, Kudos to Ozzie. So we don't have to spent 1st or 2nd pick on WR. We might get one in later.round and we also still have Mellette, 7th rounder from last year.
c) When you pick player in 1st round, you usually expect him to be a starter, so who do Ravens need as a starter? Not WR, not TE, not CB. Maybe FS, but couldn't they pick one in 2nd round?
d) Do we still remember the "epic deal" Ozzie made with Broncos when he traded Ravens 1st round pick for Broncos 3 picks? I guess they wanted Tebow bad, didn't they? And how many picks did Ravens have that year? It was more than Four»»»» just saying

 

Trading out completely I think is very unlikely, but trading back to the late first round I think is a stronger possibility.


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#20 Ravenatic20

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 05:49 AM

If the right player is there at 17 we won't trade. I can see plenty of scenarios where we trade out of the second round, say for example give up our 2nd and 6th round picks for two 4th's and one 5th. There are numerous possibilities. Ozzie is making up his board and calling teams ahead of time about possible trade scenarios as he always does. More than likely these trades would happen right before we go on the clock. It depends on where players from Ozzie's board are.

Best player available. Trust Ozzie.
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