Myth Busters

[gabefergy]

I hate these sort of reasonings because it is perfectly alright to ignore the fact that the offense tied up the game or took the lead therefore, putting the team in a position to win or go into OT.

 

In GB we held TOP until the defense gave up a 6 minute drive for a score. What is their excuse for suddenly failing when it counted? We're not talking an amazing deep ball by Rodgers that put them inside our 20 and then they scored. We are talking a 6 minute methodical drive where the defense could not muster one single play to get the ball back or force a punt. That is a defensive failure I don't care who did what previously.

 

The point was never to say the offense was better than the defense - the point was that rankings do not tell the whole story - that the defense did not perform in the 4th quarter which is proven statistically - and that it sometimes cost us games every bit as much as the offense's ineptitude.

Lets look at this logically. The offense is inept for 3 quarters while the defense plays great, and then the offense finally gets it together at the end, but the defense can't come up with another stop.

 

Which has more impact on the game, 3 quarters or 1 drive?

[RavensAllTheWay]

Well let's break it down - we've released no one (namely Caldwell) which means (because anyone worth anything will be hired by the end of the week) it can be deduced with pretty high accuracy unless he is offered a job elsewhere, we aren't letting him go.

 

We basically just promoted Castillo.

 

The RB coach left on his own - probably because of Castillo, and I only say this with the current info that Castillo will be the OL coach next season and because the RB coach has been with us for a while.

 

Not to mention - the entire "no wholesale changes" quote. Pretty much - we aren't making any coaching changes unless outside forces make it necessary.

 

I guess you didn't hear about bad route running when Mason was here. Why would you? The man was a consummate route runner. Housh was decent and Boldin was good. All of them were veterans that came here with those skills already in place. Their skills in that area were not learned and/or developed here.

 

I already said the play calling was an issue but - Caldwell's still here isn't he?

 

I call bullycock on the creative part. Massive fail in the run game and we did not even attempt to scheme our way out of it. Sure we saw a play here or there, but there was no consistent creative play calling, not even within one game.

 

No they aren't the same guys.

 

Hostler - joined in 2008

Caldwell - joined in 2012

Castillo - joined in 2013

Moeller - joined in 2008

Washington - assistant OL coach joined in 2011

 

The only guy who has been here is Wade, the TE coach. Hostler has been here since 2008 - what WR has developed under him? Torrey - who still cannot run crisp routes and has tracking issues. Something that seems to be issues with all our receivers.

 

When Castillo ran the scheme in Philly they only had 2 years when the sack totals were under 30. I don't call that "working". They only had 3 years where the run game was in the top 10. Not an impressive resume.

 

So what can we do in replacing Caldwell if everyone else is up for a HC job?  You basically just told me that we can't replace him, so he has to stay, which is true to a certain extent.  That's different from choosing him over any other prime candidate.  When we replaced Cam in the middle of the season, we had to hire from within.  We couldn't bring in someone from outside the organization for him to instill his system with three games left in the season.  In hindsight, we picked the right guy because the first thing we did after we promoted Caldwell was win a SB.  I wouldn't trade that run for anything.

 

I first read numerous sources that said Montgomery was just not coming back.  They didn't say he was being fired or he was going elsewhere, but now I see that he is going elsewhere.  Just to clarify.

 

Then I guess by your logic, we can't hold Jacobys bad route running against Hostler because he was in Houston before coming here.  But take a guy like Marlon.  First, he was only a rookie who had a serious injury in college before that.  So he hasn't had much time to develop NFL route running yet.  Secondly, even if he isn't a great route runner or never becomes one, he's still a threat in the redzone, and he still had 7 TDs last season.  I'll take that production from an UDFA rookie any day.  

 

I guess you missed the part where I said all of these issues in terms of play calling are fixable without having to fire the guy right away.  Don't tell me they aren't.  We didn't have these issues when Caldwell was calling plays for our SB run.  And as far as "not even attempting to scheme our way" out of running game issues, yes we did.  How many times did we go 3 or 4 wide to try and throw our way out of stacked boxes?  We just weren't able to for the most part.  Just because plays didn't work, doesn't automatically mean they weren't creative.  They look bad when the don't work, and they look masterful when the do.

 

What do you mean "they aren't the same guys?"  

 

Hostler - 2008.  We had a way better passing game in 2009, 2010 and 2012.  2011 was arguably better also.

Caldwell - 2012.  So who was the coordinator for our SB run, plus the Giants game at the end of the regular season?

Castillo - 2013.  Doesn't count.  I already said "minus Castillo."

Moeller - 2008.  We had a damn good O line in 2008, and we were on our way to having one in 2009 before Gaither went down.  The O line was average in 10 and 11 from my perspective, but noticeably better then than in 2013.

 

You just proved my point.

 

And as far as Hostler not developing receivers, I'm sure you can say that about 90% of wide receiver coaches in the NFL. You really think if we traded WR coaches with the Patriots, Marlon and Torrey would wake up tomorrow morning having perfected the route tree?  This is a PLAYERS league far more than it is a coaches league.  Players are paid to produce.

 

So that's all on Castillo?  It had nothing to do with the players they had?

[ravensdfan]

Lets look at this logically. The offense is inept for 3 quarters while the defense plays great, and then the offense finally gets it together at the end, but the defense can't come up with another stop.

 

Which has more impact on the game, 3 quarters or 1 drive?

 

Well let's see - logically, since we only lost 3 games by more than 1 score, I guess the defense's 4th quarter failings have more impact.

 

It isn't about this one or that one costing a game here or there - it is about the myth that the defense was so great and so much better than last year - it is a myth.

 

Their 4th quarter failings - giving up the 3rd most points in the 4th quarter - getting scored on 67% of the time in the red zone -  cost us games this season. Did the offesnse cost us games? Yep. But there is no myth around that they were better than last season or so great.

[wayne]

Fact: The Defense faced more high powered offenses than our offense faced more stout defenses....... and our D still played better as a unit than our offense.

 

Go look it up......

[ravensdfan]

Fact: The Defense faced more high powered offenses than our offense faced more stout defenses....... and our D still played better as a unit than our offense.

 

Go look it up......

 

Top 10 offenses: Denver, GB, Detroit, NE, Chicago, Cincy for yards. Denver, Chicago, NE, Cincy, GB for points. Not that they were all playing at that level when we faced them.

 

Top 10 defenses: Cincy, Houston, Cleveland, Buffalo for yards. Cincy, Miami, NE for points.

 

So in essence - we faced 2 more top 10 offenses than defenses.

 

If you extend that to top 15 though -

 

Defenses: Pitt (twice) Detroit, for points.

 

Offenses: add Houston. (again, for points scored).

 

Not as lopsided as one might think.

[Moderator 3]

Are we still on 'Myth Busters' thread?

Apparently not. Looks like we've morphed into something else. It's more like "fact: my opinion is better than your opinion". Too bad people couldn't stick to the real facts so we all could learn something.

[ravensdfan]

As I mentioned before, I think it is fact that the D as whole played better in 2013. The point of contention is the 3 or 4 games where they failed at the end of the game when we had a chance to win. I understand what you are saying and no, the offense doesn't get a pass! They are a part of the team as well.

 

This scenario plays out in games in all sports, at every level, every day. Teams/individuals take leads or perform well for most of a game/match/whatever. Sometimes it happens that they fail at the end and lose/fail. They don't finish. It happens and it spells failure no matter how they/their team performed before that. At the end of the day, what matters most and has the greatest effect on success/failure is how you finish.

 

myth: The defense faced way more top scoring offenses in 2013 than 2012.

 

Fact: In 2012, we faced 5 offenses in the top 10 for scoring. In 2013, we faced 6 offenses in the top 10 for scoring.

 

myth: The defense performed much better than 2012 versus top scoring offenses.

 

Fact: In 2012 our scoring differential (points allowed against the average points per game for those teams) versus top 10 scoring offenses was plus 17. In 2013, versus top 10 scoring offenses our differential was plus 14. A difference of a mere 3 pts.

 

Note: This accounts for teams we play twice (if they were in the top 10).

 

Myth: One statistic or ranking is the sole measurement of performance.

Fact: There are many different variables that need to be taken into account.

 

Rankings do not tell the whole tale - and of course it becomes difficult to go back & see where they were ranked when we played them etc. These are based on end of season rankings.

 

I only quoted your post because it mentions getting back to facts. These are facts, easily verified. The entire "we ranked higher so we were way better" argument is myth & opinion.

 

Edit: After double checking the figures we actually performed better in 2012 than in 2013 versus top 10 scoring offenses. We allowed 13 points over the average in 2012 versus 14 points over the average in 2013.

[redrum52]

Apparently not. Looks like we've morphed into something else. It's more like "fact: my opinion is better than your opinion". Too bad people couldn't stick to the real facts so we all could learn something.

I've kept kind of to the topic.  Everything I've claimed to be fact, has been.

 

 

 

Eh, I hear what you are saying, but I don't put much faith in rankings and stats.  I watch all games(some twice!) and I'm here to tell you that the defense vastly improved overall as a UNIT in 2013, even considering the communication issues in the secondary. We just fielded a better group in 2013. That said, it is a mystery why they failed to play 4 quarters in some games and why the pass rush disappeared in the second half of the season. Things to improve upon moving forward.   

No one will say that the defese doesn't need to improve, but had anything resembling the 2012 offense shown up this team easily could've repeated.  If the offense was even marginal in most of those games we would probably be getting ready for round 2 of the playoffs.

[flynismo]

Not to derail the thread anymore than it is already, but regardless of how it compares to last year's defense, let's just agree that it is dire need of improvement. The fact that it is even a somewhat debatable topic tells us we have a long way to go.

[ravensdfan]

So you ate just going to ignore the fact that our defense's DVOA improved from 19 to 7?

How many times did our defense lose a 4th quarter lead this season? And how many of those 4th quarter points were given up by the offense? At least 3 TDs and multiple other points off of turnovers.

 

Chicago they allowed a 4th quarter TD to give Chicago the lead by 3. The offense took it to OT and we lost in OT.

 

GB we did not have a 4th quarter lead but that was because the offense scored on 3 consecutive drives - FG, TD, TD and the defense couldn't get a stop and allowed GB to run 3 scoring drives and allowed GB to eat the clock in the 4th quarter with a 6 minute drive for a score. We lost by 2 pts..

 

First Pitt game - offense tied the game - defense allowed the winning score.

 

Not to mention a blown 17-3 lead in the first Cincy game - we won that one.

And the Viking debacle where the offense & Jacoby won the game more than once and the defense failed.

 

2nd Cincy game - offense tied the game - defense let them march down the field and score a TD on the very next drive.

 

Those are all situational - and that is where the defense was by far worse this year than last.

 

One could make a case for Buffalo & the Browns but I'm more inclined to give those to the offense for obvious reasons.

[gabefergy]

Chicago they allowed a 4th quarter TD to give Chicago the lead by 3. The offense took it to OT and we lost in OT.

GB we did not have a 4th quarter lead but that was because the offense scored on 3 consecutive drives - FG, TD, TD and the defense couldn't get a stop and allowed GB to run 3 scoring drives and allowed GB to eat the clock in the 4th quarter with a 6 minute drive for a score. We lost by 2 pts..

First Pitt game - offense tied the game - defense allowed the winning score.

Not to mention a blown 17-3 lead in the first Cincy game - we won that one.

And the Viking debacle where the offense & Jacoby won the game more than once and the defense failed.

2nd Cincy game - offense tied the game - defense let them march down the field and score a TD.

One could make a case for Buffalo & the Browns but I'm more inclined to give those to the offense for obvious reasons.

So the defense blew a 4th quarter lead 3 times, two of which we came back and won. And the other we should have won if not for inept offense.

[ravensdfan]

So the defense blew a 4th quarter lead 3 times, two of which we came back and won. And the other we should have won if not for inept offense.

 

lol yeah because not getting a stop for 3 consecutive GB drives had no bearing on us losing.

 

Not forcing more than one punt for the entire game in Pitt and allowing 8 and 9 mins drives had no bearing on us losing.

 

Besides I don't care who you want to credit the losses with - the entire we're better because of our ranking is a myth.

 

Myth: Because we're ranked higher our defense performed better.

Fact: Though ranked 12th versus 17th last years' defense allowed less points, allowed a lesser QB rating for opponents and only gave up point 2 more yards per carry on the ground.

[The Raven]

Top 10 offenses: Denver, GB, Detroit, NE, Chicago, Cincy for yards. Denver, Chicago, NE, Cincy, GB for points. Not that they were all playing at that level when we faced them.

 

Top 10 defenses: Cincy, Houston, Cleveland, Buffalo for yards. Cincy, Miami, NE for points.

 

So in essence - we faced 2 more top 10 offenses than defenses.

 

If you extend that to top 15 though -

 

Defenses: Pitt (twice) Detroit, for points.

 

Offenses: add Houston. (again, for points scored).

 

Not as lopsided as one might think.

 

Okay I agree with you that the defense needs to stop blowing fourth quarter leads but when your defense allows an average of 20 points a game and you only go 8-8 the problem is obviously offense. Our defense is above average in points allowed, but our offense is below average in points scored. This isn't even up for debate anymore. 

[gabefergy]

lol yeah because not getting a stop for 3 consecutive GB drives had no bearing on us losing.

Not forcing more than one punt for the entire game in Pitt and allowing 8 and 9 mins drives had no bearing on us losing.

Besides I don't care who you want to credit the losses with - the entire we're better because of our ranking is a myth.

Myth: Because we're ranked higher our defense performed better.

Fact: Though ranked 12th versus 17th last years' defense allowed less points, allowed a lesser QB rating for opponents and only gave up point 2 more yards per carry on the ground.

Lol you clearly aren't going to give this one up are you.

I still think the most pertinent stat is the defensive DVOA which we waa massively better in 2013 compared to 2012.

The defense did actually come up with a lot of late game stops this year, but because they couldn't do it every game you want to denegrate a significantly improved unit. Thats fine, you can have your opinion, but if we are talking about fact they are all on my half of the debate.

[ravensdfan]

Okay I agree with you that the defense needs to stop blowing fourth quarter leads but when your defense allows an average of 20 points a game and you only go 8-8 the problem is obviously offense. Our defense is above average in points allowed, but our offense is below average in points scored. This isn't even up for debate anymore. 

 

Naturally - the debate was never about offense versus defense. It was about the defense being better simply because we're ranked higher. That isn't the case and if you see my previous post the stats prove it.

[The Raven]

Naturally - the debate was never about offense versus defense. It was about the defense being better simply because we're ranked higher. That isn't the case and if you see my previous post the stats prove it.

 

According the NFL.com, we scored 320 points, just 20 a game. That's ranked 25th in the NFL. Yet, our scoring defense ranked 12th, allowing just 22 points a game.

 

So, the defense is above average and the offense is well below average. The defense's job is to not allow points and the offense's job is to score points. The defense ranked better (13 spots better) at its job than the offense did at its job. That's all I need to know. 

[RavensAllTheWay]

Let me say this about the defense this season.  Yes, they failed to make a lot of crucial stops in a lot of games. I can't tell you that they didn't; they did. 

 

However, the 22 points allowed per game is misleading by the fact that the offense gave up four pick sixes and a fumble return for a TD, not to mention putting the defense in more bad situations by turning the ball over more than usual.  

[Dr. Kelley]

Fact: the offense sucked.

Fact: the defense sucked.

Fact: we have to become a better team all around or we will be competing with the Browns for the basement of the division next year.

[Dr. Kelley]

Lol you clearly aren't going to give this one up are you.

I still think the most pertinent stat is the defensive DVOA which we waa massively better in 2013 compared to 2012.

The defense did actually come up with a lot of late game stops this year, but because they couldn't do it every game you want to denegrate a significantly improved unit. Thats fine, you can have your opinion, but if we are talking about fact they are all on my half of the debate.

No. No they're not. Your argument is that yhe defense didn't suck because the offense did. Blaming the offense for the defense not playing to its potential is just a lazy argument, not a fact. I know dean pees is your hero, but the defense was not up to snuff this year.

[The Raven]

No. No they're not. Your argument is that yhe defense didn't suck because the offense did. Blaming the offense for the defense not playing to its potential is just a lazy argument, not a fact. I know dean pees is your hero, but the defense was not up to snuff this year.

 

Defense's job is to not allow points. Defense ranked 12th in points allowed. Clearly not sucking.  

[wayne]

So the defense blew a 4th quarter lead 3 times, two of which we came back and won. And the other we should have won if not for inept offense.

 

 

Okay I agree with you that the defense needs to stop blowing fourth quarter leads but when your defense allows an average of 20 points a game and you only go 8-8 the problem is obviously offense. Our defense is above average in points allowed, but our offense is below average in points scored. This isn't even up for debate anymore. 

 

 

Lol you clearly aren't going to give this one up are you.

I still think the most pertinent stat is the defensive DVOA which we waa massively better in 2013 compared to 2012.

The defense did actually come up with a lot of late game stops this year, but because they couldn't do it every game you want to denegrate a significantly improved unit. Thats fine, you can have your opinion, but if we are talking about fact they are all on my half of the debate.

 

 

According the NFL.com, we scored 320 points, just 20 a game. That's ranked 25th in the NFL. Yet, our scoring defense ranked 12th, allowing just 22 points a game.

 

So, the defense is above average and the offense is well below average. The defense's job is to not allow points and the offense's job is to score points. The defense ranked better (13 spots better) at its job than the offense did at its job. That's all I need to know. 

 

 

Let me say this about the defense this season.  Yes, they failed to make a lot of crucial stops in a lot of games. I can't tell you that they didn't; they did. 

 

fense in more bad situations by turning theHowever, the 22 points allowed per game is misleading by the fact that the offense gave up four pick sixes and a fumble return for a TD, not to mention putting the de ball over more than usual.  

Exactly. When you factor in terrible field position and the points given up by our offense, the debate surely favors the defense in a major way. I wont even go into detail all the times the defense put the offense in great field position only to come away with either 0 points or 3. Our field goal kicker made the All Pro first team this season...... that tells you a lot right there.

 

No. No they're not. Your argument is that yhe defense didn't suck because the offense did. Blaming the offense for the defense not playing to its potential is just a lazy argument, not a fact. I know dean pees is your hero, but the defense was not up to snuff this year.

 

It's not a lazy argument, that's how football goes. If the O is failing to do their job and constantly putting the D in bad field position, the offense can affect how the defense plays in a major way. That's sports 1 on 1.

Defense's job is to not allow points. Defense ranked 12th in points allowed. Clearly not sucking.

[Dr. Kelley]

Defense's job is to not allow points. Defense ranked 12th in points allowed. Clearly not sucking.

You are obviously satisfied with mediocrity. I, however, am not. I am satisfied to agree to disagree on this one.

[ravensdfan]

Exactly. When you factor in terrible field position and the points given up by our offense, the debate surely favors the defense in a major way. I wont even go into detail all the times the defense put the offense in great field position only to come away with either 0 points or 3. Our field goal kicker made the All Pro first team this season...... that tells you a lot right there.

 

 

It's not a lazy argument, that's how football goes. If the O is failing to do their job and constantly putting the D in bad field position, the offense can affect how the defense plays in a major way. That's sports 1 on 1.

 

 

I mean seriously -

 

myth: Flacco supporters make the most excuses.

fact: defense apologists are worse. (see above for proof)

 

Does the offense get brownie points for every time they started inside their 10?

At what point does the offense get any credit for moving the ball when a FG is kicked? Or are we of the premise that Tuck kicked from our own end zone?

[The Raven]

You are obviously satisfied with mediocrity. I, however, am not. I am satisfied to agree to disagree on this one.

 

12th in points allowed is hardly mediocre. But yeah, let's just drop it.

[redrum52]

Fact: the offense sucked.

Fact: the defense sucked.

Fact: we have to become a better team all around or we will be competing with the Browns for the basement of the division next year.

Lmao at your definition of fact.

[Dr. Kelley]

Lmao at your definition of fact.

Just making blanket statements to please everybody

But everyone should find common ground in the idea that multiple facets of our team needs improvement.

[Willbacker]

Let me say this about the defense this season.  Yes, they failed to make a lot of crucial stops in a lot of games. I can't tell you that they didn't; they did. 

 

However, the 22 points allowed per game is misleading by the fact that the offense gave up four pick sixes and a fumble return for a TD, not to mention putting the defense in more bad situations by turning the ball over more than usual.  

Those stats shouldn't count against the D.

 

According the NFL.com, we scored 320 points, just 20 a game. That's ranked 25th in the NFL. Yet, our scoring defense ranked 12th, allowing just 22 points a game.

 

So, the defense is above average and the offense is well below average. The defense's job is to not allow points and the offense's job is to score points. The defense ranked better (13 spots better) at its job than the offense did at its job. That's all I need to know. 

The myth was the 2013 D was better than the 2012 D. How come we're talking bout the O. We all know this years O stunk. No myth there.

 

The 2013 D couldn't close out games. Statswise they were better. Clutchwise not(remember the 4th down stop in the SB). It seems like the myth changed to who was better. O or D.

[gabefergy]

I mean seriously -

myth: Flacco supporters make the most excuses.

fact: defense apologists are worse. (see above for proof)

Does the offense get brownie points for every time they started inside their 10?

At what point does the offense get any credit for moving the ball when a FG is kicked? Or are we of the premise that Tuck kicked from our own end zone?

Do you need to be reminded on what a fact is again?

[gabefergy]

Those stats shouldn't count against the D.

The myth was the 2013 D was better than the 2012 D. How come we're talking bout the O. We all know this years O stunk. No myth there.

The 2013 D couldn't close out games. Statswise they were better. Clutchwise not(remember the 4th down stop in the SB). It seems like the myth changed to who was better. O or D.

Every single measure you want to use shows the defense improved. That's not a myth.

[Florida Ravens Fan]

I agree the overall D improved. But the 4 qt D was by far the worst.

The Ravens surrendered a franchise record 134 points in the fourth quarter. It's more than the 130 points allowed in the fourth quarter in 1996, the Ravens' inaugural year. It's also 52 more points than the Super Bowl XLVII winners gave up in the fourth quarter in 2012.