Let's Talk About The Offense: Where are the TDs?

[callahan09]

This is a predicament and it begs a ton of questions about why, why, why, but first let's look at some numbers.

 

We are tied with the Bucs for the 3rd worst TD% in the red zone.  The bottom 2 are the abysmal Jets and Jags teams.

 

We aren't bad at *getting* to the red zone, though.  We have been there 45 times this season, which is tied with the Saints for 13th most.  It's a little above average, which is 44 times.

 

But we are also having problems scoring TDs from outside the red zone.  We have had just 2 touchdown plays of 20+ yards, both passing.  That's not only the worst in the NFL, but by a significant margin.  The Jets & Jags are tied for 2nd worst, and they each have had 5 touchdowns from outside the red zone.  The average team has scored 9 touchdowns this year from 20+ yards out.

 

So we've got the worst running game in the NFL, we aren't completing deep passes for touchdowns outside the red zone, and we aren't getting into the end zone from inside the red zone either.

 

All this adds up to just 26 offensive TDs scored this year... that's tied with the Jets for 2nd worst, just 2 more than the awful Jags.  The NFL average team this year has scored 37 offensive TDs! (Even if you remove the Broncos from the equation, who have 20 more than anyone else, the average is still 36).

 

The average distance of our touchdown plays this season has been just 8.54 yards, which is by far the lowest in the NFL, and the NFL average is 14.22 yards.  Since 2008, only 4 teams have had a lower average in this category, the 2012 & 2011 Jets, the 2009 Redskins, and the 2008 Browns.

 

Let's talk about what's going on, and why we can't get into the end zone.

[Sami84]

We need a superstar "bring it down double coverage beating " TE or WR. We have 2 very good but not elite options in torrey and dennis with an inconsistant x factors in jacoby and marlon.

as we dont have a running game it also makes us more predictable. Ozzie get us a superstar wr in the draft please.

[Ravenseconbeast]

How many times have we seen ourselves @ goalline on 1st down, only to let it go to FGs?

Its atrocious

[berad]

Running game, it's been the worst in the league - maybe ever

[The Raven]

Terrible run game = terrible red zone offense. Fact.

 

Just watch New England and see how much they run in the red zone.

[Free Agent]

It's the guaranteed one or two running plays at the goal line that kill us every time. We'd be better off throwing the ball the entire time in the red zone or setting up screens. Running the ball with our o-line at the goal line is just a waste of time.

[PurplePassion824]

Very true, the running game makes a huge difference.  We use to be able to pound it in almost every time.  Now, we are very predictable in the red zone since we pass often.  Also, when the D knows we are throwing it is much easier to cover our receivers with such a small field.

[TSizzle00]

Well when you do not run the ball well it limits your ability to score in the redzone. Most of the year we had no real short range passing attack which again limits your ability to score in the redzone. Only big body we had was Brown and he has 6 TDs.

[callahan09]

I agree with everyone, and we've well-covered the topic of red zone scoring as it relates to the run game.  How about the long ball?  Why aren't we getting touchdowns from outside the red zone either?

[A Fish Called Yanda]

We would have already locked up the 2nd seed if we converted even half of our red zone trips into TDs.

 

The run game is horrendous, it's easy to defend the pass when you know we can't even get 3 yards on a run.  Need better blocking and smarter play calling.  Also need to stop putting Rice in on "& Goal" plays - Pierce would be better to power the ball into the EZ.

[Sami84]

We would have already locked up the 2nd seed if we converted even half of our red zone trips into TDs.
 
The run game is horrendous, it's easy to defend the pass when you know we can't even get 3 yards on a run.  Need better blocking and smarter play calling.  Also need to stop putting Rice in on "& Goal" plays - Pierce would be better to power the ball into the EZ.

Should try jumping over the line...it tends to work..sure you take a hit..but hey..

[AsianRice]

We would have already locked up the 2nd seed if we converted even half of our red zone trips into TDs.

 

The run game is horrendous, it's easy to defend the pass when you know we can't even get 3 yards on a run.  Need better blocking and smarter play calling.  Also need to stop putting Rice in on "& Goal" plays - Pierce would be better to power the ball into the EZ.

Totally agree, we should stop using Rice inside 20yd line cuz he can't even pass 2 yd.  Rice should recieve 30% of the snap and Pierce for 70%....

[Militant X 1]

I highly agree with the majority of posts here.  Our running game has been atrocious all season long and that limits our effectiveness in the redzone.  I absolutely hate our offenses ineptness to score TD's once they are in the redzone.  They may not be "elite" (as someone in the thread mentioned) but, we have some big bodies to target there if they choose to pass the ball...Pitta, Dickson and Brown.  And with Leach, Pierce and Rice in the backfield, there are no excuses for their pathetic display and piss poor running.  Man up O-line!  Smh!

 

#Mili

[callahan09]

Looking back over past years, I found some interesting stats.

 

Through the first 14 games of the season in the Harbaugh era, here's how we did in 20+ yard touchdowns:

 

2012: 11 (T-8th)

2011: 8 (T-15th)

2010: 11 (T-6th)

2009: 12 (T-7th)

2008: 10 (T-5th)

2008-2012: 52 (5th)

Avg: 10.4 per season

 

We were never in the bottom half of the league and in the top 10 all but once, and over the full span of time, we were top 5.  Our worst year we still had 4x as many as this year.

 

Our current count of 2 is the worst in the first 14 games of the season since the 2008 Bengals.

 

Since 1999, only 5 teams have been as bad or worse.  The 2008 Bengals, 2007 Redskins, and 2006 Rams all had 2 each, and the 2004 Redskins and 2000 Browns each had 1.

 

None of those teams were as bad in the red zone as we are this year.

[ravensdfan]

It becomes very tough inside the red zone when your running game is crap. The defense can just key on your receivers pretty much with way less ground to be covered.

 

We should take more end zone shots through the air from the 30 IMO. We have the QB with the arm to do it.

 

By all that is holy though, stop feeding Rice the ball down there. Pierce/Leach, bring in Ngata I don't care but Rice is not getting it done at the goal line.

[Hardbaugh]

Was listening to the Vinny & Rob show earlier and Vinny brought up a good point on this. 

 

He mentioned Torrey and Jones being speed guys ,  when the field gets condensed inside the 20 and since there's no running game it makes it tougher to score Td's in the Red Zone.

 

The logic is hard to argue with.

 

An argument for a different day but this offense would be better with Boldin.

[Hardbaugh]

It becomes very tough inside the red zone when your running game is crap. The defense can just key on your receivers pretty much with way less ground to be covered.

 

We should take more end zone shots through the air from the 30 IMO. We have the QB with the arm to do it.

 

By all that is holy though, stop feeding Rice the ball down there. Pierce/Leach, bring in Ngata I don't care but Rice is not getting it done at the goal line.

 

Rice is as close to a favorite player I got on the Ravens but he either needs to come into camp in back to his previous success playing weight/build or get healthy.

 

  If the problem isn't one of those two he's finished as a feature back in this league.

 

A single safety brought him down in the open field against Det. , in years past he'd use some wiggle, stiff arm or run them over, rarely was he brought down by a single db in my memory.

[berad]

I agree with everyone, and we've well-covered the topic of red zone scoring as it relates to the run game.  How about the long ball?  Why aren't we getting touchdowns from outside the red zone either?

 

In my mind, part of it relates back to the running game. The Ravens love to use play-action and, without a respectable running game, play-action is less effective or not effective at all. Defenders will be less likely to react to a potential run when they no it's not going anywhere. We've also seen more defenders dropping into coverage because of this.

 

A few other things: Flacco has not looked as sharp on some of his deep passes - I've seen over and under-throws on receivers that were open by NFL standards. We've had a good amount of drops, as well, Torrey has lost the ball or couldn't track it on occasion. And, generally speaking, the OL has not been good enough to afford us those oppourtunities or the time/space to execute it.

 

I'm blaming the running game and tied into that is the OL. Rice and Pierce are good runners. Yes, Ray Rice is considerably slower than I've ever seen him but not 3.1 ypc bad - and Pierce at 2.8. Our offensive line has struggled mightily.

[Gordo52]

I'd like to know how many times we run it in a I-back or singleback formation. I'm just curious is all.

I hate running it up the middle out of the pistol. It's so predictable and never seems to work. Whether our oline can't get a push, missed assignments, or Ray Rice not being able to make good reads or miss a defender.

I liked the little pitch play we used Monday against the lions to convert that 3rd down. That was something new.

What really concerns me is the lack of screens and dump offs. If Rice can't get it going on the ground maybe we should try more in the air? I was envious of the way the Lions pulled Warfford (who is a beast) outside and block in the second level. I know Marshall could do it but it probably wouldn't make much of a difference since how bad Rice has been struggling.

I'd like to see more creativity. Flacco in the gun and moving around is nasty. I don't know how his knee is feeling going foward but that's the only thing on offense which has shined so far this year.

[Neal Could Block the SUN!!]

Matt Birk retired.

Our O'line has not kept Flacco upright. The play action was a must to consider when Pitta was in the game. This year Dropsy Mc'Dickson required no coverage since he was no threat to make a catch. No run because O'line can't create separation. Now running backs need to get antsy and second guess their running lanes.

This O'line made some changes and did fantastic against Suh and Fairley. Maybe they are finally gelling. Castillo said that his changes would take 7-8 games to apply. Can't believe we took a 7-8 game risk, but maybe it is finally working?

[callahan09]

Since Rice had 2 red zone rushing touchdowns against the Dolphins in week 5, we have had exactly 1 red zone rushing touchdown in the 9 games since.

 

It was a Rice TD from the 1-yard line on our first possession of the Bears game.  That's 1 touchdown out of 37 red zone rush attempts.

 

Conversely, Flacco has thrown 12 red zone TD passes in that same span, on 44 attempts.

 

So we're getting a TD every 37 attempts in the red zone rushing the ball, but every 3.67 attempts passing the ball.  That's more than 10 times a better rate!

 

Rice + Pierce + Leach are averaging 2.25 yards per carry in the red zone, and have failed to gain positive yardage on 29% of their carries.  We have gotten to the 1-yard line and attempted rushing plays on 5 occasions, and scored the touchdown on a rush just once out of the 5 opportunities.  Add in another 5 opportunities, and 0 successes, from the 2 yard line.  And a total of 15 opportunities and 1 success from inside 5 yards, and a total of 23 opportunities and 1 success from inside 10 yards and goal-to-go scenarios.

[PurplePassion824]

Was listening to the Vinny & Rob show earlier and Vinny brought up a good point on this. 

 

He mentioned Torrey and Jones being speed guys ,  when the field gets condensed inside the 20 and since there's no running game it makes it tougher to score Td's in the Red Zone.

 

The logic is hard to argue with.

 

An argument for a different day but this offense would be better with Boldin.

Yes similar to what I said.  That being said, it seems Torrey and Jacoby have a hard time getting open in the end zone.  We need a big receiver who can go up and get the ball.  I believe Marlon is the guy but he needs more time to develop.

[Neal Could Block the SUN!!]

Second thought

x= weather

That factor alone has to play in somewhere. We have not been in comfortable environments in weeks. Tough to hit a 2'x2' window when the winds are 35+mph or you have driving rain or snow.


and

Callahan09- awesome posts. Love your statistical approach and analysis. You should be running the NFL website, lord knows them clowns can use some help over there!

[callahan09]

Second thought

x= weather

That factor alone has to play in somewhere. We have not been in comfortable environments in weeks. Tough to hit a 2'x2' window when the winds are 35+mph or you have driving rain or snow.


and

Callahan09- awesome posts. Love your statistical approach and analysis. You should be running the NFL website, lord knows them clowns can use some help over there!

Thanks!

 

And good point about the weather.

 

We had nasty weather, rain/snow, cold, and/or wind every game for weeks until we finally get a nice dome game and it happens to come against the #1 red zone defense in the NFL and in their house (Detroit).  Not exactly a forgiving sequence of games to try to get some red zone touchdowns.

[beanfigger]

What kills red zone opportunities?  Negative (or even no-gain) plays.  This includes a lot of different types of issues, all of which we've had problems with.  Everyone here seems to be discussing the running game, or lack there of.  That is the most obvious.  Are backs are getting hit in the backfield too often, and they don't seem to have it in them to go Lynch and "Beast mode" their way into the endzone, or McCoy and "Shady shake" their way by the defenders.

 

Our passing game has struggled to get positive plays in the red zone, as well.  We have struggled to pick up blitzers, hold off rushers, get open and throw crisp passes in this area.  All of these issues relate to each other, and several seem to happen on each play.  Flacco is running for his life, the receivers cannot break free in the small space of the red zone because that is not what their current skill set seems to be, Joe misses some receivers who do manage to get open because either he doesn't see them or can't set his feet while on the move, and of course there has been numerous drops around the goal line.  Sacks and incomplete passes both hurt so much worse when we are close to the endzone.

 

The third issue we have is penalties.  We really lead the league in false starts?  What kind of crap is that?  Not to mention, we always seem to make poorly timed holding or, worse yet, personal foul hands to the face penalties that kill drives.  This is especially crushing in the red zone.

 

As for the issue of the long TD, I see someone mentioned that our lack of run game prevents us from effectively using play action.  That is true.  We have also had issues, although we are improving, pass blocking long enough to allow the receivers to get deep.  Finally, Joe and the receivers have had major issues connecting deep.  If the ball isn't right on their chest, the receivers have issues locating, adjusting and making a big play for us.  They are also not the greatest group in terms of run after the catch.  This includes Ray Rice.  How long has it been since he's broken a long TD on a screen pass?  That used to be something that happened every other week.  When I saw that long catch and run from Torrey in the preseason (I forget which game), I got really excited and hoped that would be something we would get to see a lot of this year.  That hasn't been the case.  Joe hasn't thrown his best deep balls, either.  Sometimes even when the receivers catch the ball, they have to slow up enough to allow the defenders to catch them.  Aside from that bomb against the Jets, I am not sure I've seen Joe connect on a deep ball to Jacoby where Jacoby hasn't had to slow up at least a little.  Joe has a better idea of timing when it comes to Torrey, but Torrey hasn't made a bunch of plays.  All eleven guys on the offense have not done enough to get us more long TDs.  Fortunately, we've seen most of them prove capable of providing us with those kind of plays in the past, so unless they've all hit a career wall (which I don't think is the case for most), it wouldn't surprise me to see them change things for the better the rest of this season.

[Ravensfan23]

Was listening to the Vinny & Rob show earlier and Vinny brought up a good point on this. 

 

He mentioned Torrey and Jones being speed guys ,  when the field gets condensed inside the 20 and since there's no running game it makes it tougher to score Td's in the Red Zone.

 

The logic is hard to argue with.

 

An argument for a different day but this offense would be better with Boldin.

 

I think this is exactly what it is, those guys are speed guys which is one reason why I said Torrey just isn't a #1 right now, but that's a different topic.

 

Boldin and Pitta where both guys that ran strong routes and could just outmuscle people in Boldin's case. Even Mason and Housh were these type guys that ran strong route and had good hands to catch passes in traffice. Heap too. Torrey and Coby aren't those guys, Marlon is from the hands and body position aspect but his route running isn't as strong right now. You gotta have high level of trust in your guys down inside the redzone because space is limited and once Pitta got hurt and Doss didn't amount to what we thought this offense was screwed early on. Even though it didn't show itself Monday, I think with Pitta back he and Marlon will improve the red zone offense.

 

Also foolish mental lapses hurt as well, drop passes, bad penalties, missed throws, it all hurts.

 

As for the reason we can't score as much outside the 20s, it goes back to the Pitta thing imo. He's a guy that can control the middle and underneath areas of the defense, but without that type of guy, Safeties are just able to play deeper to protect against the bomb. Teams now know that once we get to the plus side of the field, we're thinking about taking a shot. So they play much deeper and without someone to hold attention underneath the Safeties have nothing to respect but the deep ball.

 

This is one of the reasons I was so upset with our WRs Monday night because the Lions were playing deep and the middle of the field was open but none of our guys could win their 1 on 1 battles consistently or just didn't adjust well to their zone coverage.

[arnie_uk]

Was listening to the Vinny & Rob show earlier and Vinny brought up a good point on this. 
 
He mentioned Torrey and Jones being speed guys ,  when the field gets condensed inside the 20 and since there's no running game it makes it tougher to score Td's in the Red Zone.
 
The logic is hard to argue with.
 
An argument for a different day but this offense would be better with Boldin.

was about to say this. It wouldn't necessarily be better overall with boldin, but in the redzone, boldin just got open, and when he wasn't open, he caught contested passes. We also have missed Pitta.

Over receivers just don't get open, period, on any down from any where on the field. The only one that has shown a bit of savvy to get open without just pure speed has been marlon brown.

[Bltravens]

Pierce needs to be the goal line back and they need to start throwing Brown more fades to the corner of the end zone from the X spot.  Though the post corner route is a nice design, Brown is 6'5. Just have him post someone up and get the ball.

[Alexir]

Let me see your TDs

[waxytaxi]

we need the run game to step up that starts and ends with the offensive line, they need to play better