According To My Calculations...

[Ravnet]

Let's get right into it, folks.

AFC North:

[b]Baltimore - vs. Pittsburgh, @ Dallas, vs. Jacksonville[/b]

[b]Pittsburgh - @ Baltimore, @ Tennessee, vs. Cleveland [/b]

This one is simple. To win the division, we'd need to win out and have Pittsburgh lose one game. There is a scenario in which we beat Pittsburgh head to head and then both teams lose out, but that doesn't seem very likely. Our chances at the division aren't promising right now; however, if we were to win the AFC North, we'd almost certainly have the 2nd seed and a bye.

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Wild Card:
[b]
Indianapolis - vs. Detroit, @ Jacksonville, vs. Tennessee[/b]

To overtake the Colts, we'd need to have them drop two while we win two. Assuming that they beat Detroit, they'll only need to take one game from Jacksonville/Tennessee to clinch the fifth spot. They're pretty much locked in at five.

[b]Miami - vs. San Francisco, @ Kansas City, @ New York (Jets)[/b]

Miami cannot take the Wild Card from us as long we win one more divisional game. Miami needs to win out, period. Let's assume that they go 2-1 with a loss in New York.

[b]New York (Jets) - vs. Buffalo, @ Seattle, vs. Miami[/b]

New York can go 2-1 and still get in as long as they beat Miami head to head. I see Miami going 2-0 against KC/SF, and New York going 2-0 against Buffalo/Seattle. This means that week 17 in New York will decide which of those teams wins the division; the loser cannot take the WC from us.

HOWEVER, and this is where it gets confusing, if New York drops a game against SEA/BUF, yet still beats Miami, they fall to the FOURTH seed hinging upon how Denver does. If New York falls to #4, that's right, we play Denver.

[b]Denver - @ Carolina, vs. Buffalo, @ San Diego[/b]

To get all the way up to the third seed, Denver would need a New York loss in either Buffalo or Seattle, coupled with two of their own wins. Being that they're a terrible team, it doesn't look likely; by the same token, the Jets have been miserable as of late, and we just need a few things to fall into place for a loss against the Bills or Seahawks.

[b]New England - @ Oakland, vs. Arizona, @ Buffalo[/b]

If New England loses one game at any point then they're out. If Baltimore wins two games at any point then New England is out. However, if Baltimore goes 1-2 and the Patriots win out, they're in. I can see them going 3-0, so we better win at least one of Pittsburgh/Dallas. The Patriots, however, cannot win their division, so we won't be seeing them in the playoffs no matter what.

If Denver can beat Buffalo and San Diego, with the Jets losing in either Buffalo or Seattle, the Ravens would play the Broncos in round one! I can't think of a better scenario.

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Here's the bottom line: the division is out of reach, as is the fifth spot, so let's look at sixth slot match ups. Remember, we'll be playing the third seed in the playoffs.

If Miami goes 2-1, with a win in New York, they're in at the third spot as they beat Denver head to head. If New York goes 2-1 with a win in Miami, but a loss in either Seattle or Buffalo, Denver is in as the third team assuming the Broncos beat San Diego and Buffalo.

However, if Denver goes 1-2, then we play the winner of Miami/New York in the first round.

All in all, it comes down to the winner of the Jets/Dolphins in New York week 17. Assuming that both New York and Miami finish 2-0 going into that game, whoever wins is our first round match up. Even if the Jets go before the Dolphins game, they just need to win head to head.

[Ravnet]

By the way, I've been playing around with the Yahoo generator recently - it's MUCH easier than having to think things out.

[url="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=yahooranker"]http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenari...thm=yahooranker[/url]

[svt2nv04]

If we beat the Steelers next Sunday, then they lose to the Titans and win against Cleveland and we win out, we take the 2nd seed.

You said in order to win the division, we need the Steelers to lose out while us winning out. However, it looks like Steelers need to lose only 2 games, not 3.

It's not very likely though.

[Ravnet]

[quote name='svt2nv04' post='100583' date='Dec 8 2008, 09:57 AM']If we beat the Steelers next Sunday, then they lose to the Titans and win against Cleveland and we win out, we take the 2nd seed.

You said in order to win the division, we need the Steelers to lose out while us winning out. However, it looks like Steelers need to lose only 2 games, not 3.

It's not very likely though.[/quote]

Yup, you're right, Pittsburgh needs to drop one game while we win out.

[codizzle]

theres a very good chance indy could lose to jax or tenn... i dont see either of those teams handing the game over to indy.... but i wouldnt bet against indy in those games.

we can still win the division we just need to win out and have pit lose either week 16 or 17. which is possible @ Tenn. i dont see fisher resting too many people.

division is definitly still attainable. we are definitly gonna have to play more consistent offense than last night though

[Ravnet]

[quote name='codizzle' post='100586' date='Dec 8 2008, 10:10 AM']theres a very good chance indy could lose to jax or tenn... i dont see either of those teams handing the game over to indy.... but i wouldnt bet against indy in those games.

we can still win the division we just need to win out and have pit lose either week 16 or 17. which is possible @ Tenn. i dont see fisher resting too many people.

division is definitly still attainable. we are definitly gonna have to play more consistent offense than last night though[/quote]

I don't necessarily see Tennessee sitting out guys after the first quarter, but I don't expect them to have full starters giving their all for four quarters. Although a mix of starters/backups could take care of a mediocre team like the Texans, Pitt/Ind are too good.

[svt2nv04]

We'll wait and see what happens this weekend against Pittsburgh. A division title will only be achievable with a win next week.

Thanks for the break down Ravnet

[PuRock]

We really needed the Steelers to lose to the Cowboys yesterday for our dreams of winning a division to come through. The outlook is very bleak. We can only hope that the Cowboys are out of playoff contention and demoralized when we play them.

It looks like if we are to get in, it's via the wild card. I just wanna make it to the playoffs.

[svt2nv04]

Anyone else here besides me rather play the Jets or Miami than the Broncos?

[svt2nv04]

PuRock, time to change that signature. We're 9-4 now

[Shawn`]

[quote name='svt2nv04' post='100597' date='Dec 8 2008, 10:01 AM']Anyone else here besides me rather play the Jets or Miami than the Broncos?[/quote]

Nah, I'd love to feast on Cutlers many many mistakes.

[PuRock]

[quote name='svt2nv04' post='100599' date='Dec 8 2008, 11:04 AM']PuRock, time to change that signature. We're 9-4 now [/quote]

Thanks. I'm a little slow on this monday morning. Consider it done.

[VA_Fan]

If I remember correctly, weren't we a wild card team when we won the 2000 Super Bowl?

[Shawn`]

[quote name='VA_Fan' post='100664' date='Dec 8 2008, 11:49 AM']If I remember correctly, weren't we a wild card team when we won the 2000 Super Bowl?[/quote]

Yeah we were, but it would be nice having a bye week since we lost ours because of hurrican Ike

[PuRock]

[quote name='VA_Fan' post='100664' date='Dec 8 2008, 12:49 PM']If I remember correctly, weren't we a wild card team when we won the 2000 Super Bowl?[/quote]

That would be correct. I'm just hating the possiblitly of going through Pittsburgh in the Playoffs though. I feel like the Steelers make their field so crappy, so that they have an advantage since they are use to it.

[RavenManiac73]

Why can't New England win their division? They go 3-0, Jets and Miami each go 2-1. Wouldn't that give the division to New England?

I think if New England beats Arizona, they go 3-0 to finish and probably win the division. Hopefully Warner can do us a favor, because if the Patriots go 3-0, there is a chance that either the Jets or Dolphins go 3-0 as well, meaning we must defeat either Pittsburgh or Dallas along with Jacksonville.

[SteelersProphet]

[quote name='Ravnet' post='100591' date='Dec 8 2008, 10:34 AM']I don't necessarily see Tennessee sitting out guys after the first quarter, but I don't expect them to have full starters giving their all for four quarters. Although a mix of starters/backups could take care of a mediocre team like the Texans, Pitt/Ind are too good.[/quote]

why would the titans sit anybody.....if we win against you and then beat them...they have to win against indy or the steelers get the 1st seed

[rayvenfan_52]

[quote name='PuRock' post='100668' date='Dec 8 2008, 08:52 AM']That would be correct. I'm just hating the possiblitly of going through Pittsburgh in the Playoffs though. I feel like the Steelers make their field so crappy, so that they have an advantage since they are use to it.[/quote]

Aint that the truth. They probably wet the field during practice so when it rains during game day it helps them a lot more.

[PuRock]

Here is an interesting article from ESPN which breaks down matchups and playoff pictures, with some predictions of winners.

[url="http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3753634"]http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3753634[/url]

[quote]The Baltimore Ravens' next two games are hard

[SteelersProphet]

[quote name='PuRock' post='100683' date='Dec 8 2008, 01:17 PM']Here is an interesting article from ESPN which breaks down matchups and playoff pictures, with some predictions of winners.

[url="http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3753634"]http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3753634[/url]



Ravens vs. Colts AFC Conference game? Interesting. I love how Steelers get bumped out.[/quote]


lol you would.....but i see it being steelers ravens title game.....afc north showdown for the title...gotta love it

[RavensIQ]

So far I've come up with 5 scenarios that can happen in order for the Ravens to win the Division out right.

We finish 12-4 and the Steelers lose to either Tennessee or Cleveland
We finish 12-4 and the Steelers lose to both Tennessee and Cleveland
We finish 11-5 (win against pit) and the Steelers lose to Cleveland
We finish 11-5 (win against pit) and Pittsburgh loses to both Tennessee and Cleveland
We finish 10-6 and the Steelers finish 10-6

[u]As of now:[/u]
The Ravens are 7-3 against common opponents and the Steelers are 7-3 against common opponents
The Ravens are 7-3 against teams in the AFC and the Steelers are 8-1 against teams in the AFC

Assuming we finish 11-5 (win against pit, lose to cowboys, win against jags) and they finish 11-5 (lose to ravens, Lose to titans, win against browns) the following would happen:

[u]Ravens + Steelers both finish[/u]
1-1 heads up
5-1 against division
4-4 against common opponents
9-3 against AFC

It would now come down to the Strength of Victory procedure. The strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten. The 6 teams that would determine this tie breaker are: Dallas, Eagles, Oakland, San Diego, Miami, New England.

So in order for the Ravens to win this tie breaker in this scenario, over the next 3 weeks we need the Raiders + Eagles + Dolphins to have a combined win/loss record of at least 3 more wins than Dallas + New England + San Diego's combined win/loss record.

ex. Dal+SD+NE finish 3-6 over the next 3 weeks and Mia+Philly+Oak finish 6-3

Complicated but if you can understand it then you'll know exactly what to look for each week.
Basically we need the Steelers to lose, The Cowboys to lose, The Patriots to Lose, The Chargers to lose, The Colts to lose, The Titans to lose (except pit and colts), and The Jets to lose.
and We need to root for The Eagles to Win, The Ravens to win, The Dolphins to win, and The Raiders to win.

[Ravnet]

Very nice post, IQ, I actually didn't feel like going into strength of victor after making that long post.

Right now, though, it looks like we're supplanted at six, and Pittsburgh will be at number two. Again, we'd need to win out AND have Pittsburgh lose to Tennessee right after our game. Pittsburgh losing doesn't seem terribly unlikely, but our win in Dallas would be tough.

Again, what we should all be rooting for is a New York loss in either Buffalo or Seattle. If New York loses one of those games, yet beats Miami, we play Denver in the first round. If Miami wins out, though, we play the Dolphins in round one, who we've already beaten.

[Ravnet]

[quote name='RavenManiac73' post='100680' date='Dec 8 2008, 01:13 PM']Why can't New England win their division? They go 3-0, Jets and Miami each go 2-1. Wouldn't that give the division to New England?

I think if New England beats Arizona, they go 3-0 to finish and probably win the division. Hopefully Warner can do us a favor, because if the Patriots go 3-0, there is a chance that either the Jets or Dolphins go 3-0 as well, meaning we must defeat either Pittsburgh or Dallas along with Jacksonville.[/quote]

You're right, New England can win the division, but one of the Jets/Dolphins would have to drop a game going into Week 17. If both Miami and New York go into that deciding match up, the winner makes it even if New England goes 3-0.

Miami has Kansas City and San Francisco going in; New York has Buffalo and Seattle.


"why would the titans sit anybody.....if we win against you and then beat them...they have to win against indy or the steelers get the 1st seed"

Indy will be locked in the fifth seed by week 17, meaning that they wouldn't have anything to play for by the time the Titans get there. Pittsburgh would need to win out and have Tennessee drop one to the Steelers and then an additional game against Indianapolis/Houston.

[SteelersProphet]

[quote name='Ravnet' post='100780' date='Dec 8 2008, 02:55 PM']You're right, New England can win the division, but one of the Jets/Dolphins would have to drop a game going into Week 17. If both Miami and New York go into that deciding match up, the winner makes it even if New England goes 3-0.

Miami has Kansas City and San Francisco going in; New York has Buffalo and Seattle.


"why would the titans sit anybody.....if we win against you and then beat them...they have to win against indy or the steelers get the 1st seed"

Indy will be locked in the fifth seed by week 17, meaning that they wouldn't have anything to play for by the time the Titans get there. Pittsburgh would need to win out and have Tennessee drop one to the Steelers and then an additional game against Indianapolis/Houston.[/quote]

indy will have pride to play for...remember the giants game against the pats at the end of the year last year...they had nothing to gain but pride ,started everyone and almost won.gave them the confidence to make their run

indy would like that to be them

[frostpmr]

I'm afraid that the ravens will finish 10-6 and miss the playoff because the Colts and Pats wins out...
And judging by their remaining games I believe they will high step into the playoffs.

[Ravnet]

[quote name='STEELERS PROPHET268' post='100789' date='Dec 8 2008, 03:03 PM']indy will have pride to play for...remember the giants game against the pats at the end of the year last year...they had nothing to gain but pride ,started everyone and almost won.gave them the confidence to make their run

indy would like that to be them[/quote]

Tony Dungy is a Super Bowl winning coach, he's not an idiot; the guy isn't going to send out Manning and risk injury so that he can maybe beat the Titans to feel good about himself. In the past, I think I remember him playing his guys until the half and then pulling them.

You are right, though, in that more teams are going to play their players for longer; teams like the Bucs wrapped up their division last year and then tanked in the playoffs, no one wants to repeat that mistake. That being said, Indy isn't going to put in their players all game even if it means giving Tennessee the one seed.

[SteelersProphet]

[quote name='Ravnet' post='100825' date='Dec 8 2008, 03:34 PM']Tony Dungy is a Super Bowl winning coach, he's not an idiot; the guy isn't going to send out Manning and risk injury so that he can maybe beat the Titans to feel good about himself. In the past, I think I remember him playing his guys until the half and then pulling them.

You are right, though, in that more teams are going to play their players for longer; teams like the Bucs wrapped up their division last year and then tanked in the playoffs, no one wants to repeat that mistake. That being said, Indy isn't going to put in their players all game even if it means giving Tennessee the one seed.[/quote]

uhhh Coughlin is also a superbowl winning coach and he played eli the whole game......and it has been looked upon as a brilliant decision so the colts would not be stupid to play their best....in fact i think they would be stupid not too

[RavensIQ]

[quote name='frostpmr' post='100791' date='Dec 8 2008, 03:04 PM']I'm afraid that the ravens will finish 10-6 and miss the playoff because the Colts and Pats wins out...
And judging by their remaining games I believe they will high step into the playoffs. [/quote]

New England isn't winning out. They face the Cardinals who will still be fighting for seeding position in the NFC. The Patriots don't have enough fire power to match Arizona. They barely beat the 2-11 Seahawks and they still have to travel all the way back to the West Coast to face the 3-10 Raiders. It's not gonna be a gimme win. In the span of 2 weeks they will have went from the East Coast to the West Coast back to the East Coast then back to the West Coast and then back to the East Coast for their final 2 games. That's difficult.

As long as the Patriots lose one of their next 3 we're all but a lock into the playoffs as the 6th seed.
We have the better conference record than both the Jets and the Patriots.

The Jets play Miami which means one of them has to lose. Which would force one of them to finish 10-6 and the other to finish as the divisional winner. We have the tiebreaker over both the Jets and the Dolphins so if we finish the season with identical records we 'll win the 2nd wild card bcuz of our Conference record. The only team we have to worry about is NE and even here they would have to win out and we would have to lose 2 of the next 3.

[Ravnet]

[quote name='STEELERS PROPHET268' post='100836' date='Dec 8 2008, 03:43 PM']uhhh Coughlin is also a superbowl winning coach and he played eli the whole game......and it has been looked upon as a brilliant decision so the colts would not be stupid to play their best....in fact i think they would be stupid not too[/quote]

The Giants went into the Patriots game last year looking to end the Patriots shot at a perfect season; the Titans aren't playing for anything except a one seed. Coughlin was actually criticized heavily for putting in his starters. If Eli Manning had sprained his ankle, it wouldn't have looked so bright.

I can assure you that Dungy isn't going to play Manning through the fourth, I'm basing that over what he has done every single year going into the playoffs. If the Titans have something to play for and are going hard the entire game, Dungy isn't going to risk injury so that he can keep the Titans from the first seed.

[Ravnet]

[quote name='RavensIQ' post='100845' date='Dec 8 2008, 03:56 PM']New England isn't winning out. They face the Cardinals who will still be fighting for seeding position in the NFC. The Patriots don't have enough fire power to match Arizona. They barely beat the 2-11 Seahawks and they still have to travel all the way back to the West Coast to face the 3-10 Raiders. It's not gonna be a gimme win. In the span of 2 weeks they will have went from the East Coast to the West Coast back to the East Coast then back to the West Coast and then back to the East Coast for their final 2 games. That's difficult.[/quote]

Right, the only way we miss the playoffs is if New England goes 3-0 and we go 1-2. Although I think Arizona is a flukey team and the Patriots can beat them, I also think that New England isn't strong enough to conquer all three squads; they'll trip up somewhere.