A Look at the Cap: '14 & '15

[A Fish Called Yanda]

Great post - thanks for taking the time to put this all together.  Very insightful.

 

What do we think the chances are of us trying to sign Torrey before Julio and AJ Green get their deals?  That way we don't have to worry about them inflating the market and can get Torrey on the books now.

[Purple_ICE 81]

 

I read many, many posts around here where people say we can or can’t afford free agents, trades, etc. due to our terrible cap situation. I decided to look into it myself to confirm or deny these reports. We do spend close to the cap every year and we’re pretty good about manipulating it to fit our needs.

 

I’m posting this to show people a simple breakdown of how our cap looks next year and the year after. This cap includes all players currently signed on the team with no alterations. That means I didn’t project any cuts, extensions, restructures in this figures. They also don’t include any bonuses, so the cap space could further decrease (though I can’t imagine by much).

 

I hope this is enlightening to those of you who feel it’s impossible for us to keep Arthur Jones while having Ngata on the books, to be able to re-sign Dennis Pitta, extend Torrey Smith, pen Eugene Monroe to a long-term deal as well as Jimmy Smith & Daryl Smith on the defensive side.

 

Remember, the Ravens rarely stand pat and usually release players, so players on here and consumed cap space will likely be further reduced in its consumption by way of cuts, trades, and restructures. So, there is some hope. I hope this reveals that. I posted this as its own topic so others can find it (hopefully) readily whenever needed to use as a reference for their own ideas.

 

2014 Salary Cap Analysis:

2014 Cap Hits: (Salary) $111,247,762

2014 Dead Money: $3,115,209

Total 2014 Cap Hit: $114,362,971

Projected Cap: $123,000,000

Projected Cap Space: $8,637,029

 

2014 UFA: TE Dallas Clark, TE Ed Dickson, TE Dennis Pitta, WR Brandon Stokley, WR Jacoby Jones, OL Michael Oher, OL Eugene Monroe, DL Arthur Jones, DL Terrence Cody, LB Daryl Smith, CB Corey Graham, S James Ihedigbo, S Jeromy Miles

FA Breakdown: 3 TE, 2 WR, 2 OL, 2 DL, 1 LB, 1 CB, 2 S with 8 of these players being starters.

 

2014 RFA: S Anthony Levine, LB Albert McClellan, WR Tandon Doss

 

2014 ERFA: LB DJ Bryant, LB Josh Bynes, LB Adrian Hamilton

 

Analysis: Right now, we’re set to lose 8 starters next off-season. We usually re-sign some guys, so I wouldn't expect them to all be lost. I feel like Eugene Monroe & Dennis Pitta are both guaranteed to return with low probability of them being gone. Cody could be had back cheap. I think we’ll target Arthur Jones, though I’m not sure if we can re-sign him. I’m sure Daryl Smith will be some kind of priority.

 

I’d expect us to not tender McClellan or Levine, though I can see them return a la David Reed & Ramon Harewood. This isn’t including any free agents we may want to sign from other teams. Those value, bargain free agents we like to scoop up from the trash heap. I think we’ll likely tender Tandon Doss. 

 

2015 Salary Cap Analysis:

2015 Cap Hits: (Salary) $86,532,768

2015 Dead Money: $0

Total 2015 Cap Hit: $86,532,768

Projected Cap: $123,000,000

Projected Cap Space: $36,467,232

 

2015 UFA: DL Marcus Spears, DL Pernell McPhee, LB Jameel McClain, LB Terrell Suggs, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Chykie Brown, QB Tyrod Taylor, FB Vonta Leach, OL Jah Reid, LS Morgan Cox, WR Torrey Smith, WR Tandon Doss

FA Breakdown: 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 CB, 1 QB, 1 FB, 1 OL, 1 LS, 2 WR. We’ll be losing (as of right now based off of their projected status) 6 starters.

 

2015 RFA: K Justin Tucker, C AQ Shipley, WR Deonte Thompson

 

Analysis: I believe Torrey’s a done deal in terms of being re-signed unless something crazy happens like an injury or something. I think Suggs gets extended next off-season, making this a moot point.

 

I think we let Tyrod walk or trade him to acquire picks. Jah Reid, Marcus Spears, Jameel McClain, Vonta Leach are all players we could purge ourselves of in the 2014 off-season, so they might not even be on the team, in which case they would further increase the available cap space.  

This is also the final year of Ngata’s deal, making it a very realistic chance he is cut or traded if he continues to not perform to the standards of his contract, further increasing our available cap.

 

Comparisons: 

Torrey Smith Contract: Mike Wallace – $12M; Greg Jennings – $9M; Vincent Jackson – $11M. These are three wide receivers I feel will set the benchmark for Torrey come negotiations. The true benchmark will be set by AJ Green & Julio Jones, but these are examples nevertheless as to how the marker is trending and it’s trending up. I think we’re going to end up paying Torrey $12-15M annually. He’s got great character and he’s been very productive.

 

Dennis Pitta Contract:   Jared Cook – $7M; Martellus Bennett – $5M; Delanie Walker – $4.375M; Tony Gonzalez – $7M; Jermichael Finley – $7M; John Carlson – $5M. TE aren’t nearly as expensive. Top money seems to be $7M, and I think Pitta gets closer to $5M if he’s healthy. We’ll probably give him a one-year prove-it deal unless he wants to take a $4-5M average deal for a long-term contract. His biggest issue stems from being an older TE coming off of an injury.

 

E. Monroe Contract:       Sam Baker – $6.8M; Jermon Bushrod – $7.193M; Jake Long – $8.5M. This is a small sample size, but it’s decent enough to compare where Monroe may fall. I’d expect him to get Sam Baker money or perhaps a bit more. He’ll probably get a solid $7M salary, as high as $8M. I think it’ll be closer to $7M, though.

 

I’ll post more later, but I think this at least gives people an idea and shows that the cap situation isn’t quite as bad. If we re-signed those three guys and included it in our 2015 cap, they account for $26M by themselves. Taking into account how we stagger cap hits, and I don’t think it’ll even be that bad but that’s the average. I also assume the overall cap will increase like it has every year. 

 

I feel like Victor Cruz, Antonio Brown, and Mike Williams resemble more of an outline to pay Torrey Smith. Torrey is playing great this year definitely racking up the yards but I dont think he will get payed $12M anually. Im thinking more along the lines of $8 or $9M on a 5 or 6 year deal. Dez Bryant, Damariyus Thomas Julio Jones, and AJ Green will get the $10M-$15M annual contracts. Im betting on Ozzie letting Torrey play out his rookie deal and see what happens. But at the end of the day TS will have a multiyear extension coming one way or another...I just doubt it is anything more than $10M per year unless he finishes with  like 1600 yards this year.

[gabefergy]

I want no part of Torrey for 8 mil a year. Let him walk. Let Oz go find a guy who is better for less (see Wes Welker for 6 mil a year)

So you don't want to spend 8M a year on a player who is the only legitimate playmaker in our offense? lol ok. Wes Welker for 6M is a much worse deal than Torrey for 8M considering their respective ages and upside.

 

8-9M is exactly what Torrey should be paid IMO. Give him a Lardarius Webb like contract. He is a legit #1 WR in this league and is still young and improving. He isnt a me-first player who is going to demand top dollar like Wallace. It should also be pointed out that Wallace was a more productive player at this point in their respective careers, which is part of the reason he was paid.

[gabefergy]

Regarding Arthur Jones, I don't really think he will be that expensive. He is a very good player who is still improving, but he is far from a top DT in the NFL. He is an above average pass-rusher but he is inconsistent against the run. His production is no-where near the upper-tier guys at DT. My guess is he gets a 4 year deal worth something close to 20M which is affordable for the Ravens. I would be surprised if he commands much more.

[Hardbaugh]

Unfortunately all the money this team invested in Flacco they won't make the playoffs again until he leaves.  Flacco's numbers are terrible, he should wear a Halloween costume whenever he's at the facility.

 

 

  On second thought he is... since he's masquerading as a 20 million AAV quarterback.

 

 

Oh yeah, it's everybody else's fault.... :plus-un2:

[admartian]

Thanks for the post. Good idea on hte situation i the future.

 

I honestly think we'll lose Art. Maybe the same with Digs. Would hate it, but Monroe is a bigger priority. :(

[admartian]

Unfortunately all the money this team invested in Flacco they won't make the playoffs again until he leaves.  Flacco's numbers are terrible, he should wear a Halloween costume whenever he's at the facility.

 

 

  On second thought he is... since he's masquerading as a 20 million AAV quarterback.

 

 

Oh yeah, it's everybody else's fault.... :plus-un2:

So it's ONE guy's fault? Gee whiz Ozzie nmust be terrible if the success of the team hinges solely on one guy who's expected to stop an offense too.

[ravensdfan]

Unfortunately all the money this team invested in Flacco they won't make the playoffs again until he leaves.  Flacco's numbers are terrible, he should wear a Halloween costume whenever he's at the facility.

 

 

  On second thought he is... since he's masquerading as a 20 million AAV quarterback.

 

 

Oh yeah, it's everybody else's fault.... :plus-un2:

 

You must like to eat a crow a lot. I believe you also said we'd never win a SB until Flacco was gone.

 

I mean, that isn't even logical. We've made the playoffs every year since Flacco's been here yet suddenly we're going to suck with him because he got his payday?

Yeah we won't be able to afford all those elite WRs...oh wait, we've never had those.

[GrimCoconut]

I want no part of Torrey for 8 mil a year. Let him walk. Let Oz go find a guy who is better for less (see Wes Welker for 6 mil a year)

That's totally different. Wes is older than Torrey since he's 32 and Torrey is 24. Torrey also has a higher ceiling than Wes because we know who Wes is. Torrey is still expanding his abilities and has terrific character. They're not the same at all.

[GrimCoconut]

Great post - thanks for taking the time to put this all together. Very insightful.

What do we think the chances are of us trying to sign Torrey before Julio and AJ Green get their deals? That way we don't have to worry about them inflating the market and can get Torrey on the books now.

I really don't know what the chances are. There are pros and cons to getting it done now and waiting to see the market. Torrey should get less than those players because they'll set the bar for him. I gave a high estimate in most cases because I'd rather guess high than low and I have no idea what Jones and Green will get but if Mike Wallace got what he did I can only imagine what those two receive. That's why I believe Torrey could be in for a big payday.

[GrimCoconut]

I feel like Victor Cruz, Antonio Brown, and Mike Williams resemble more of an outline to pay Torrey Smith. Torrey is playing great this year definitely racking up the yards but I dont think he will get payed $12M anually. Im thinking more along the lines of $8 or $9M on a 5 or 6 year deal. Dez Bryant, Damariyus Thomas Julio Jones, and AJ Green will get the $10M-$15M annual contracts. Im betting on Ozzie letting Torrey play out his rookie deal and see what happens. But at the end of the day TS will have a multiyear extension coming one way or another...I just doubt it is anything more than $10M per year unless he finishes with like 1600 yards this year.

See, I disagree with that. Brown, Williams, Cruz aren't the best comparisons. At the time Brown got his deal he wasn't a #1 but the Steelers did it because of those stagnating contract negotiations between Wallace and the FO. Cruz could be considered a good comparison but he's primarily a slot WR and that limits his value to an extent.

As for his $10M annual deal, I'm not sure. I mean, I'm just looking at how contracts are trending and they seem to be heading up for WR. I think Torrey is as good as Thomas and is approaching Bryant. Players are paid based off of what the team's expect from them not what they've done and he's looking like his expectations will grow.

[GrimCoconut]

So you don't want to spend 8M a year on a player who is the only legitimate playmaker in our offense? lol ok. Wes Welker for 6M is a much worse deal than Torrey for 8M considering their respective ages and upside.

8-9M is exactly what Torrey should be paid IMO. Give him a Lardarius Webb like contract. He is a legit #1 WR in this league and is still young and improving. He isnt a me-first player who is going to demand top dollar like Wallace. It should also be pointed out that Wallace was a more productive player at this point in their respective careers, which is part of the reason he was paid.

I agree with you actually that Smith should get 8-9M it's just I'm not sure we'll be able to get him that cheap. If we can that's a big win.

As for Wallace, he was more productive early on for sure but I'm not sure about his production in the final year or two. I need to look and I'm not about to do that right now. Wallace also had those attitude issues and Torrey doesn't. I think Torrey has a higher ceiling and I'm sure that'll be factored in to his pay.

[GrimCoconut]

Regarding Arthur Jones, I don't really think he will be that expensive. He is a very good player who is still improving, but he is far from a top DT in the NFL. He is an above average pass-rusher but he is inconsistent against the run. His production is no-where near the upper-tier guys at DT. My guess is he gets a 4 year deal worth something close to 20M which is affordable for the Ravens. I would be surprised if he commands much more.

I'd agree with this after looking at some of the early contracts I saw for DT. I'm still trying to find some larger comparisons but DT doesn't seem to be a position of great cost unless the guy is elite. Jones is good but he's no Geno Atkins who got 9.125M on average. That's top DT money and Jones shouldn't even come close to that because unless you're an elite DT teams don't pay that much for DT from what I've seen.

[GrimCoconut]

Thanks for the post. Good idea on hte situation i the future.

I honestly think we'll lose Art. Maybe the same with Digs. Would hate it, but Monroe is a bigger priority. :(

I'm not sure we'll want Ihedigbo back. I know he's a fan favorite and I get that but he limits us in what we can do. I also imagine we'll want to upgrade safety and probably put Elam back at SS. With that said, I think if we want him back he'll be back because I think it's very unlikely he gets big money.

[Poes Crows]

The vote here is Not to play General Manager. Heck, The General Manager can't play General Manager. Like other fans of Teams, he's got to be hoping the Players Union nixes binding it's players to illegal collective salary limits.

 

Open up or do not open up your wallets NFL Owners. This is Free Market America. We don't agree with Communism here.

[GrimCoconut]

Recent cuts of Huff and Spears saves the Ravens 2.5M off the 2014 cap with 1.55M in dead money for a total savings of 950k. In 2015 we save 1.9M.

[gabefergy]

Recent cuts of Huff and Spears saves the Ravens 2.5M off the 2014 cap with 1.55M in dead money for a total savings of 950k. In 2015 we save 1.9M.

We saved 2.5 in cap after dead money.

[GrimCoconut]

We saved 2.5 in cap after dead money.

Really? I went off of what Brian said. Must've misread it. Thanks.

[gabefergy]

Really? I went off of what Brian said. Must've misread it. Thanks.

Haha same here. I might have misread it myself.

 

edit: I did the math based off SpotRac and it looks like we save 1.7M next season.

 

Spears had 1.25M base salary and 300K left of his signing bonus for a net savings of 950K

 

Huff had 1.75M base salary and 1M left in bonus for a net of 750K

 

I could be completely wrong though.

[GrimCoconut]

Haha same here. I might have misread it myself.

edit: I did the math based off SpotRac and it looks like we save 1.7M next season.

Spears had 1.25M base salary and 300K left of his signing bonus for a net savings of 950K

Huff had 1.75M base salary and 1M left in bonus for a net of 750K

I could be completely wrong though.

Yeah, those are the figures I had initially when I did the math the same way but I changed it when I read what Brian McFarland said we had. Regardless, it's between 1.7 & .950. Not a bad savings.