A Look at the Cap: '14 & '15

[GrimCoconut]

I read many, many posts around here where people say we can or can’t afford free agents, trades, etc. due to our terrible cap situation. I decided to look into it myself to confirm or deny these reports. We do spend close to the cap every year and we’re pretty good about manipulating it to fit our needs.

 

I’m posting this to show people a simple breakdown of how our cap looks next year and the year after. This cap includes all players currently signed on the team with no alterations. That means I didn’t project any cuts, extensions, restructures in this figures. They also don’t include any bonuses, so the cap space could further decrease (though I can’t imagine by much).

 

I hope this is enlightening to those of you who feel it’s impossible for us to keep Arthur Jones while having Ngata on the books, to be able to re-sign Dennis Pitta, extend Torrey Smith, pen Eugene Monroe to a long-term deal as well as Jimmy Smith & Daryl Smith on the defensive side.

 

Remember, the Ravens rarely stand pat and usually release players, so players on here and consumed cap space will likely be further reduced in its consumption by way of cuts, trades, and restructures. So, there is some hope. I hope this reveals that. I posted this as its own topic so others can find it (hopefully) readily whenever needed to use as a reference for their own ideas.

 

2014 Salary Cap Analysis:

2014 Cap Hits: (Salary) $111,247,762

2014 Dead Money: $3,115,209

Total 2014 Cap Hit: $114,362,971

Projected Cap: $123,000,000

Projected Cap Space: $8,637,029

 

2014 UFA: TE Dallas Clark, TE Ed Dickson, TE Dennis Pitta, WR Brandon Stokley, WR Jacoby Jones, OL Michael Oher, OL Eugene Monroe, DL Arthur Jones, DL Terrence Cody, LB Daryl Smith, CB Corey Graham, S James Ihedigbo, S Jeromy Miles

FA Breakdown: 3 TE, 2 WR, 2 OL, 2 DL, 1 LB, 1 CB, 2 S with 8 of these players being starters.

 

2014 RFA: S Anthony Levine, LB Albert McClellan, WR Tandon Doss

 

2014 ERFA: LB DJ Bryant, LB Josh Bynes, LB Adrian Hamilton

 

Analysis: Right now, we’re set to lose 8 starters next off-season. We usually re-sign some guys, so I wouldn't expect them to all be lost. I feel like Eugene Monroe & Dennis Pitta are both guaranteed to return with low probability of them being gone. Cody could be had back cheap. I think we’ll target Arthur Jones, though I’m not sure if we can re-sign him. I’m sure Daryl Smith will be some kind of priority.

 

I’d expect us to not tender McClellan or Levine, though I can see them return a la David Reed & Ramon Harewood. This isn’t including any free agents we may want to sign from other teams. Those value, bargain free agents we like to scoop up from the trash heap. I think we’ll likely tender Tandon Doss. 

 

2015 Salary Cap Analysis:

2015 Cap Hits: (Salary) $86,532,768

2015 Dead Money: $0

Total 2015 Cap Hit: $86,532,768

Projected Cap: $123,000,000

Projected Cap Space: $36,467,232

 

2015 UFA: DL Marcus Spears, DL Pernell McPhee, LB Jameel McClain, LB Terrell Suggs, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Chykie Brown, QB Tyrod Taylor, FB Vonta Leach, OL Jah Reid, LS Morgan Cox, WR Torrey Smith, WR Tandon Doss

FA Breakdown: 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 CB, 1 QB, 1 FB, 1 OL, 1 LS, 2 WR. We’ll be losing (as of right now based off of their projected status) 6 starters.

 

2015 RFA: K Justin Tucker, C AQ Shipley, WR Deonte Thompson

 

Analysis: I believe Torrey’s a done deal in terms of being re-signed unless something crazy happens like an injury or something. I think Suggs gets extended next off-season, making this a moot point.

 

I think we let Tyrod walk or trade him to acquire picks. Jah Reid, Marcus Spears, Jameel McClain, Vonta Leach are all players we could purge ourselves of in the 2014 off-season, so they might not even be on the team, in which case they would further increase the available cap space.  

This is also the final year of Ngata’s deal, making it a very realistic chance he is cut or traded if he continues to not perform to the standards of his contract, further increasing our available cap.

 

Comparisons: 

Torrey Smith Contract: Mike Wallace – $12M; Greg Jennings – $9M; Vincent Jackson – $11M. These are three wide receivers I feel will set the benchmark for Torrey come negotiations. The true benchmark will be set by AJ Green & Julio Jones, but these are examples nevertheless as to how the marker is trending and it’s trending up. I think we’re going to end up paying Torrey $12-15M annually. He’s got great character and he’s been very productive.

 

Dennis Pitta Contract:   Jared Cook – $7M; Martellus Bennett – $5M; Delanie Walker – $4.375M; Tony Gonzalez – $7M; Jermichael Finley – $7M; John Carlson – $5M. TE aren’t nearly as expensive. Top money seems to be $7M, and I think Pitta gets closer to $5M if he’s healthy. We’ll probably give him a one-year prove-it deal unless he wants to take a $4-5M average deal for a long-term contract. His biggest issue stems from being an older TE coming off of an injury.

 

E. Monroe Contract:       Sam Baker – $6.8M; Jermon Bushrod – $7.193M; Jake Long – $8.5M. This is a small sample size, but it’s decent enough to compare where Monroe may fall. I’d expect him to get Sam Baker money or perhaps a bit more. He’ll probably get a solid $7M salary, as high as $8M. I think it’ll be closer to $7M, though.

 

I’ll post more later, but I think this at least gives people an idea and shows that the cap situation isn’t quite as bad. If we re-signed those three guys and included it in our 2015 cap, they account for $26M by themselves. Taking into account how we stagger cap hits, and I don’t think it’ll even be that bad but that’s the average. I also assume the overall cap will increase like it has every year. 

 

[billick]

Nice post. !!

 

The salary cap is not a problem, it is a fact. Good young players are cheaper than good old players.

 

We have too many free agents.

[PurpleCityLights]

Nice post. !!

The salary cap is not a problem, it is a fact. Good young players are cheaper than good old players.

We have too many free agents.

Way too many, Ozzie & DeCosta will really have to rebuild this team with 2014-15 draft.

[rmw10]

I expect Pitta, Monroe, A. Jones, and D. Smith will be the priorities in the offseason.  I'd be pumped if we could walk away with 3 of them.  I think they'd really like to keep Ihedigbo as well, but he won't break the bank.  Cody warrants some consideration as well, especially with Ngata not playing that well.

 

In 2015, Suggs, T. Smith, and J. Smith seem like the only real priorities right now.  I don't see guys like McPhee, C. Brown, Cox, and Doss costing too much either, so they probably fall in the take it or leave it category where we'd like to keep them, but it's no big deal if they walk.

[Mt. Crushmore]

You speak the truth.

[GrimCoconut]

I expect Pitta, Monroe, A. Jones, and D. Smith will be the priorities in the offseason. I'd be pumped if we could walk away with 3 of them. I think they'd really like to keep Ihedigbo as well, but he won't break the bank. Cody warrants some consideration as well, especially with Ngata not playing that well.

In 2015, Suggs, T. Smith, and J. Smith seem like the only real priorities right now. I don't see guys like McPhee, C. Brown, Cox, and Doss costing too much either, so they probably fall in the take it or leave it category where we'd like to keep them, but it's no big deal if they walk.

I'm going to do some comparisons on Daryl, Jimmy, Arthur Jones next. I don't think it's unreasonable to believe we can retain them all but we'll need to make some cuts and restructure Suggs. I think it's all possible

[BloodRaven]

Art Jones market value is going to blow out.

[rmw10]

I'm going to do some comparisons on Daryl, Jimmy, Arthur Jones next. I don't think it's unreasonable to believe we can retain them all but we'll need to make some cuts and restructure Suggs. I think it's all possible

 

Yeah I mean, the only real concern I have is Arthur Jones.  I can see him being that Ellerbe type of guy that we really want to keep, but some team comes in and offers much more than we can.  I don't see Monroe or Pitta going anywhere.  I don't think D. Smith will break the bank.  A. Jones is the main concern this offseason.

[OLD SCHOOL SMASH BALL]

I thought Ngata was up at the end of the seasin

[rmw10]

I thought Ngata was up at the end of the seasin

 

He's signed through 2016.

[GrimCoconut]

Yeah I mean, the only real concern I have is Arthur Jones. I can see him being that Ellerbe type of guy that we really want to keep, but some team comes in and offers much more than we can. I don't see Monroe or Pitta going anywhere. I don't think D. Smith will break the bank. A. Jones is the main concern this offseason.

The thing about Jones is he's been relatively healthy. Ellerbe was seemingly always injured..Jones has progressively gotten better. That's why I feel his situation is unique and more favorable than Ellerbe. Also, all our free agents got considerable press for the most part due to the Super Bowl. I believe that elevated their prices.

Then you have guys like Atkins who set the price on the DT position and others who will be free agents next year that'll help set the cap on Jones.

[redrum52]

So you're saying we're going to sign Fitz?

[ravensfan2424]

Comparisons: 

Torrey Smith Contract: Mike Wallace – $12M; Greg Jennings – $9M; Vincent Jackson – $11M. These are three wide receivers I feel will set the benchmark for Torrey come negotiations. The true benchmark will be set by AJ Green & Julio Jones, but these are examples nevertheless as to how the marker is trending and it’s trending up. I think we’re going to end up paying Torrey $12-15M annually. He’s got great character and he’s been very productive.

 

Dennis Pitta Contract:   Jared Cook – $7M; Martellus Bennett – $5M; Delanie Walker – $4.375M; Tony Gonzalez – $7M; Jermichael Finley – $7M; John Carlson – $5M. TE aren’t nearly as expensive. Top money seems to be $7M, and I think Pitta gets closer to $5M if he’s healthy. We’ll probably give him a one-year prove-it deal unless he wants to take a $4-5M average deal for a long-term contract. His biggest issue stems from being an older TE coming off of an injury.

 

E. Monroe Contract:       Sam Baker – $6.8M; Jermon Bushrod – $7.193M; Jake Long – $8.5M. This is a small sample size, but it’s decent enough to compare where Monroe may fall. I’d expect him to get Sam Baker money or perhaps a bit more. He’ll probably get a solid $7M salary, as high as $8M. I think it’ll be closer to $7M, though.

 

I’ll post more later, but I think this at least gives people an idea and shows that the cap situation isn’t quite as bad. If we re-signed those three guys and included it in our 2015 cap, they account for $26M by themselves. Taking into account how we stagger cap hits, and I don’t think it’ll even be that bad but that’s the average. I also assume the overall cap will increase like it has every year. 

 

 

I don't see Torrey being paid $12-15 million unless he can be top 5 in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. He's never had a 1,000 yard season, but he usually can put up about 7 touchdowns. This season he's setting career high's for yardage, but he only has 1 TD. I see him more in the $8-$10 million/year range.

 

I also don't see Monroe getting $7-$8 million/year. Sure, he is an above average LT, but what has he done to prove that he deserves top LT money? Jake Long has the statistics to prove he is one of the best, and Bushrod protected Brees during his championship season, and the seasons he passed over 5,000 yards. Monroe has only played for the lowly Jaguars, where the QB's and O-line's have been awful, and they drafted Joeckel to take his place at LT. I see him more at $4-$5 million/year

[Ravenskid52752]

He's signed through 2016.

but this might be his last season. the way his cap number is he might be traded after the season.

[rmw10]

but this might be his last season. the way his cap number is he might be traded after the season.

 

We are not going to be paying him $15M to not play on this team.  He's either on the team, or we're cutting him with a post June 1st and eating $7.5M for the next 2 years.  I'm going with the former.  Trading him does us no good.

[Static]

I think we will get Pitta cheap considering the injury which could be a good thing in the long run barring he is the same player.

 

 

Torrey has shown he is a true #1 and if we could get our offense playing to form he would be a monster( more than now ). I'm hoping he doesn't want to break our bank.

[GrimCoconut]

I don't see Torrey being paid $12-15 million unless he can be top 5 in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. He's never had a 1,000 yard season, but he usually can put up about 7 touchdowns. This season he's setting career high's for yardage, but he only has 1 TD. I see him more in the $8-$10 million/year range.

I also don't see Monroe getting $7-$8 million/year. Sure, he is an above average LT, but what has he done to prove that he deserves top LT money? Jake Long has the statistics to prove he is one of the best, and Bushrod protected Brees during his championship season, and the seasons he passed over 5,000 yards. Monroe has only played for the lowly Jaguars, where the QB's and O-line's have been awful, and they drafted Joeckel to take his place at LT. I see him more at $4-$5 million/year

Mike Wallace was paid that much without being top 5. Top 5 WR money is actually more than that, I believe. The price of WR is increasing. It's very realistic to believe he could cost us that much especially since he has Drew Rosenhaus as his agent.

I was conservative with my estimation because I'd rather be higher than lower when I'm making a point on cap space. I'd love for Monroe to get that cheap of a deal. Not sure it happens but we'll see. Maybe you're right but I'd expect him to get around $6M then.

[GrimCoconut]

So you're saying we're going to sign Fitz?

No. Please delete or shorten what you quoted from my mammoth post. Thanks.

[runamuk]

No. Please delete or shorten what you quoted from my mammoth post. Thanks.

thanks Grim for the breakdown .

[Ravenskid52752]

We are not going to be paying him $15M to not play on this team.  He's either on the team, or we're cutting him with a post June 1st and eating $7.5M for the next 2 years.  I'm going with the former.  Trading him does us no good.

really all i know is its 50/50 ngata will be on this team next year.

[AsianRice]

nice post...

[Purple Punishment]

Torrey is definitely not worth 12-15M a year. He is not Megatron or Fitz. When Torrey can catch a ball in quadruple coverage, he can have that amount. 8M a year Max. He doesn't score TDs and gets totally eliminated from games still. Thats not what you want in a #1 receiver. Not talking bad about Torrey, just calling it as I see it

[Inqui]

Torrey is definitely not worth 12-15M a year. He is not Megatron or Fitz. When Torrey can catch a ball in quadruple coverage, he can have that amount. 8M a year Max. He doesn't score TDs and gets totally eliminated from games still. Thats not what you want in a #1 receiver. Not talking bad about Torrey, just calling it as I see it

I hear you, but this is one of those things where you're stuck with what the market gives you.

 

I don't think Joe Flacco is worth $120,000,000 (great QB, but not better than Rodgers or Peyton), but I still liked the contract because we needed a QB and signing him to that big contract was easily the best thing to do. We paid more than other franchises did for better QBs, but worse QBs will go for a higher price down the line.

 

Like Grim said, Torrey is much better than Mike Wallace in almost every way. Meanwhile, AJ Green and Julio Jones are going to cash in big time, which won't help things for us (he won't get as much as them, but I think they'll inflate the market). I think we could live if he walked, but he's the most polished receiver we have and he'll probably be the best long-term option for us when the time comes to pay him.

[Sneddon11]

I don't think A. Jones will cost as much as some expect, he's a solid pass rusher but his numbers aren't too flashy (not to say he's a bad player because he's awesome imo), also on a line with the likes of Suggs, Ngata and Doom, Jones doesn't get the same recognition he would playing for most teams. As a result, I think we could easily get him for much less then his actual worth.

[Sneddon11]

Torrey is definitely not worth 12-15M a year. He is not Megatron or Fitz. When Torrey can catch a ball in quadruple coverage, he can have that amount. 8M a year Max. He doesn't score TDs and gets totally eliminated from games still. Thats not what you want in a #1 receiver. Not talking bad about Torrey, just calling it as I see it

How does he lead the league in recieving yards yet get eliminated from games? I'm not saying he's worth 12-15 mill like others (think the 8 you suggested is quite realistic) but to say he gets eliminated is foolish, he's the only guy on the team getting seperation, if that's your take on him being eliminated I'd love to see him not being eliminated.

I don't think WRs are as expensive as some think, outside of Wallace (who was an anomally from a team spending silly amounts of money), WRs rarely get big money unless they're in the Megatron area (Green and Bryant will probs get $2-3 mill less at least). We saw in FA last year that WRs don't get big money through the contracts given to Welker and Jennings (both of which fell as the market dropped after a couple of weeks). It's very rare a WR gets big money and they need to be a absolut complete reciever to do so (or go to a team with a stupid GM) :D

[GrimCoconut]

Torrey is definitely not worth 12-15M a year. He is not Megatron or Fitz. When Torrey can catch a ball in quadruple coverage, he can have that amount. 8M a year Max. He doesn't score TDs and gets totally eliminated from games still. Thats not what you want in a #1 receiver. Not talking bad about Torrey, just calling it as I see it

It's just a guess on my part. I'm not some scientist and I'm sure I could and may very well be wrong. But teams play players for what they believe they will do not what they've done. Torrey is our best WR and he's one of the top in the league.

I just hope people don't hate him when he gets that big deal I believe he gets.

[Speed Kills]

It's just a guess on my part. I'm not some scientist and I'm sure I could and may very well be wrong. But teams play players for what they believe they will do not what they've done. Torrey is our best WR and he's one of the top in the league.

I just hope people don't hate him when he gets that big deal I believe he gets.

I want no part of Torrey for 8 mil a year. Let him walk. Let Oz go find a guy who is better for less (see Wes Welker for 6 mil a year)

[H8R]

This is all speculation. I like the theory behind it , but it could be discredited very easily... considering NONE of us know the exact structure of current contracts.

[rmw10]

This is all speculation. I like the theory behind it , but it could be discredited very easily... considering NONE of us know the exact structure of current contracts.

 

You'd be surprised.  A lot of people have access to the exact structure of these contracts.

[H8R]

You'd be surprised. A lot of people have access to the exact structure of these contracts.

Yea... I'm thinking it's a short list...