A Different Look At First Down Play Calling - We're Not Mixed/Balanced At All

[callahan09]

So, after having looked at this misleading article from the main page:

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Mixing-Up-First-Down-Play-Calls/112a338c-fa35-47e8-8500-64f11069d2b3

 

I decided to take a deeper look at the numbers myself.  I posted this comment there as well, but it's kind of a dead article at this point so I thought it deserved it's own thread for ongoing discussion.  Apologies to the mods if you disagree.

 

Mr. Downing tries to make an argument that it isn't the play-calling, because we are indeed balanced.

 

But these stats are highly skewed by extremes to one side or the other in our first down playcalling.

 

First of all, we have actually run the ball 96 times out of 177 on first down.  That means we're really calling the run on first down 54.2% of the time, not 52.5% of the time.  Now, I can only assume that 93/177 number came from removing our 3 first down kneel-downs, but then you'd also have to subtract those 3 from the overall number of plays making it 93 out of 174, so in that case it's really 53.5% of our first down plays.  Which still isn't really good when you look at NFL averages.

 

Counting kneel-downs, as the NFL does, the Ravens run 54.2% of the time on first down, while the NFL average is 49.0%.  So the NFL average is closer to "balanced" than us, and the difference is favored towards the pass not the run.  If you want to remove kneel-downs, then our 53.5% compares to the NFL average of 48.2%.  So we are still less balanced than the average team, AND we are skewed to the run while they are skewed to the pass.

 

We're even worse in the first half, where we run 55.0% of the time.  We're a little more balanced in the second half.  It's also in the first half where we struggle the most and put up the fewest points.  Hmm...

 

At the beginnings of games, we are VERY unbalanced.  We run the ball 62.9% of the time on first downs in the 1st quarter, compared to the NFL average of 52.6%.

 

From game to game, we are also very unbalanced.  Over multiple games this gives the illusion of balance, but within individual games we have no balance at all.

 

By week, this is the percentage of run plays called on first downs:

 

W1 = 29.7%

W2 = 70.0%

W3 = 72.7%

W4 = 18.5%

W5 = 79.4%

W6 = 59.3%

 

Here's a graph, because graphs are fun:

 

 

The purple line straight across from 50, THAT would be balanced.  As you can see, from week to week, we are WAY off to either extreme from that.

 

That screams unbalanced.  There is no mixing of the play calls within each game.  We are either all in on the pass or all in on the run from week to week.  Last week was actually our most balanced game, but that's only because we were very off-balance in the first half (69.2% first downs were run plays) when we performed atrociously, and then we became perfectly balanced in the second half (50.0% run plays on first downs), and what do you know, our offense was significantly better in the second half.

 

P.S. Sorry about the typo in the topic title.

[berad]

Great breakdown. I knew even though the main site pointed out that the overall numbers were ~50% that it was skewed because we went on long streaks of exclusively doing either. As you point out, this holds between halves as well.

 

If we were balanced throughout, we might not have to go through these predictable streaks.

[PurpleCityLights]

Here's a graph,because graphs are fun lol......Priceless

[runamuk]

I can tell we are very predictable my g/f knows when we are running the ball and she just watches the game because i'm such a fan no football knowledge beyond names of some players. I agree with op that article was misleading.

[CorvusCorax]

The article is very misleading indeed. I agree with you callahan09. It also proves of our offensive struggles. We become very predictable on first down.

I mean I'm calling plays BEFORE they even get to the line! C'mon offense!

I'm just sick and tired of seeing offensive struggles year in and year out. It's incredibly frustrating because we have the personnel to get the job done on offense.

[jdynamite]

Yeah when I saw that article I thought it would hit on some of the stuff from the other games. Instead it just went way off course as if play calling were balanced. I stopped reading it after that.
They may have initially peaked at the threads to see fans complaining about play calling but they didn't actually see some of the post pointing out the percentages

This breakdown really puts it into perspective. I'd like to see this updated weekly if possible lol.

[Guest Im An Ozzie Newsome Guy]

I'm somewhere stuck in the middle of deciding if the lack of creativity and the predictability of this offense is just downright depressing... OR, if this is a huge sign of optimism once the team abandons these 1st-down runs up-the-middle and actually lets Joe Flacco take control of this offense and use it to its fullest advantage.

 

And, for what it's worth, if the 29.7% from the Broncos game is the result of being behind in the second-half, I still think the Ravens had their best offensive game-plan during that game... well, at least during the 1st-half before injuries occurred and the team made dumb mistake-after-dumb mistake. Sure, there was some lack of execution and the drops by Dickson and Clark didn't help, at all; but, it certainly said something about the Ravens to score 17 points against a team like that and also be up at halftime.

 

Actually, I'm kind of curious to see the run:pass ratio for the first-half of the Denver game.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

Great post by the OP. Hits right on what I had suspected about our "balanced" playcalling.

 

Any way you could post the numbers just from the 1st half of the Broncos game and the 4th quarter of the packers game?

[FreckleNate]

This is a great thread, I really like your breakdown. And completely agree with your opinion and the facts show your opinion perfectly we are no where near balanced the only reason we are close is because are large outliers of low numbers (29 and 18) drag down those 70's so much. By far one of the best threads I have ever seen!

[callahan09]

 

Great post by the OP. Hits right on what I had suspected about our "balanced" playcalling.

 

Any way you could post the numbers just from the 1st half of the Broncos game and the 4th quarter of the packers game?

 

 

Sure thing.  Our two best halves of offensive football this season were probably the first half of the Broncos game and the 2nd half of the Packers game.

 

Week 1 @ Denver, Overall, 26 pass & 11 rush (29.7% rush)

Week 1 @ Denver, 1st Half, 12 pass & 9 rush (42.9% rush)

Week 1 @ Denver, 2nd Half, 14 pass & 2 rush (12.5% rush)

 

Week 6 vs Green Bay, Overall, 11 pass & 16 rush (59.3% rush)

Week 6 vs Green Bay, 1st Half, 4 pass & 9 rush (69.2% rush)

Week 6 vs Green Bay, 2nd Half, 7 pass & 7 rush (50.0% rush)

 

We aren't as good when we're that far deviated to one extreme.  We played well when we were perfectly balanced and we played well when were decently balanced but slightly skewed towards the pass.  We haven't been good during our other halves of football this season.

 

We have had just 1 other half of football where both pass & rush attempts were in the 40-60% range on first downs.  That was the first half against Cleveland, which should have been a pretty huge half for us as well, the play calling was good there, we had some dropped touchdowns and 2 missed field goals, so the 0 points doesn't reflect that the offense was in plenty of positions to score points.  We had another perfectly balanced plan there, 50.0% rush attempts (7 pass, 7 rush) on first downs.

 

Outside of those 3 good halves of play calling, every other half is skewed heavily to one extreme or the other.

 

Those other 9 halves of football are represented as such by % of rush attempts on first downs:

 

6.7%

12.5%

33.3%

42.9%

50.0%

50.0%

62.5%

69.2%

77.3%

78.6%

83.3%

87.5%

 

The two red shaded groupings are extremely skewed towards being pass or run heavy. The green represents our 3 halves of decently balanced first down play-calling.

 

So 9 out of 12 halves of football have been heavily skewed towards one or the other.  The 3 that were decently balanced represent by far our 3 most successful examples of play-calling this season.

[callahan09]

Great post by the OP. Hits right on what I had suspected about our "balanced" playcalling.

 

Any way you could post the numbers just from the 1st half of the Broncos game and the 4th quarter of the packers game?

Also, I noticed you requested the 4th quarter of the Packers game... I gave you the 2nd half.  I'll give you the 4th quarter as well:

 

4 pass, 3 rush.  42.9% rush.  Recall that we had a drive that constituted the final 2:12 of the 3rd quarter and then the first 3:02 of the 4th quarter.  On the 3rd quarter portion of that drive, we had three 1st down plays, 1 pass and 2 runs.  If you count this whole drive towards what we are interested in seeing with the 4th quarter, since you can't really look at the quarters alone each in a vacuum when the drive spanned both quarters, then we see a more accurate depiction of the 4th quarter as being 5 pass and 5 rush, again, 50.0%, very balanced.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

 

 

 

 

Sure thing.  Our two best halves of offensive football this season were probably the first half of the Broncos game and the 2nd half of the Packers game.

 

Week 1 @ Denver, Overall, 26 pass & 11 rush (29.7% rush)

Week 1 @ Denver, 1st Half, 12 pass & 9 rush (42.9% rush)

Week 1 @ Denver, 2nd Half, 14 pass & 2 rush (12.5% rush)

 

Week 6 vs Green Bay, Overall, 11 pass & 16 rush (59.3% rush)

Week 6 vs Green Bay, 1st Half, 4 pass & 9 rush (69.2% rush)

Week 6 vs Green Bay, 2nd Half, 7 pass & 7 rush (50.0% rush)

 

We aren't as good when we're that far deviated to one extreme.  We played well when we were perfectly balanced and we played well when were decently balanced but slightly skewed towards the pass.  We haven't been good during our other halves of football this season.

 

We have had just 1 other half of football where both pass & rush attempts were in the 40-60% range on first downs.  That was the first half against Cleveland, which should have been a pretty huge half for us as well, the play calling was good there, we had some dropped touchdowns and 2 missed field goals, so the 0 points doesn't reflect that the offense was in plenty of positions to score points.  We had another perfectly balanced plan there, 50.0% rush attempts (7 pass, 7 rush) on first downs.

 

Outside of those 3 good halves of play calling, every other half is skewed heavily to one extreme or the other.

 

Those other 9 halves of football are represented as such by % of rush attempts on first downs:

 

6.7%

12.5%

33.3%

42.9%

50.0%

50.0%

62.5%

69.2%

77.3%

78.6%

83.3%

87.5%

 

The two red shaded groupings are extremely skewed towards being pass or run heavy. The green represents our 3 halves of decently balanced first down play-calling.

 

So 9 out of 12 halves of football have been heavily skewed towards one or the other.  The 3 that were decently balanced represent by far our 3 most successful examples of play-calling this season.

 

 

Thanks for posting.

 

Just as I suspected.

[callahan09]

Thanks for posting.

 

Just as I suspected.

 

I also added some more in response to you, check out my post 2 posts up.

[Puntit]

This is a good thread, but even your analysis doesn't tell the whole story, I don't think. In term of predictability its not just pass vs run, it's where you run. Excluding our offensive line problems, which are not insignificant, the problems with the run stem from the fact that we don't seem to mix up the running route often enough. We try to run up the gut pretty consistently. Mixing it up would mean working the edges, in my mind. Make the other team not so comfortable having their safeties deep on running downs.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

Also, I noticed you requested the 4th quarter of the Packers game... I gave you the 2nd half.  I'll give you the 4th quarter as well:
 
4 pass, 3 rush.  42.9% rush.  Recall that we had a drive that constituted the final 2:12 of the 3rd quarter and then the first 3:02 of the 4th quarter.  On the 3rd quarter portion of that drive, we had three 1st down plays, 1 pass and 2 runs.  If you count this whole drive towards what we are interested in seeing with the 4th quarter, since you can't really look at the quarters alone each in a vacuum when the drive spanned both quarters, then we see a more accurate depiction of the 4th quarter as being 5 pass and 5 rush, again, 50.0%, very balanced.

Why do we notice this, but so far the coaching staff hasn't?

It's frustrating for sure, but this week should show a lot. Thanks for the research and putting the numbers together.

[arnie_uk]

Why do we notice this, but so far the coaching staff hasn't?

It's frustrating for sure, but this week should show a lot. Thanks for the research and putting the numbers together.

my take.. they do notice it but has got involved and this was his plan and his stubbornness until now has got in the way. Hopefully he takes a step back.

Ive also heard numerous of Baltimore people ie on radio shows have been saying this week that this is actually what happened. They say the have sources but that parr may not be true

[Ravensfan23]

Great post my man. I certainly apperciate the detail and effort put forth. Even if I didn't agree with you, which I do, it's nice to see well thought ou post and not just some random rants about why something is either good or bad. I applaud you.

Going off topic just a bit, threads like this is the reason I come here for my Ravens Talk and news. We have some very knowledgable posters here and the media could learn a lot from this forum.

Now back to the post, this is exactly what I"ve said about the offense and it's the biggest thing holding us back right now. It's not just about being balanced, it's about being productively balanced. If you have the time and willingness to do it, i'd love to see the success of each drive started with a pass or run. I have a feeling that we are much more successful when we attempt 1st down passes vs run. Even when the pass isn't completed we seem to have more success on 2nd and 10 after a pass then we do after a run.

We seem to get into 3rd and long a lot more when we run early vs pass. Now of course we aren't always successful on early passes, but I feel this offense moves so much better when we do. I feel passing the ball forces LBs and Safeties to take that extra half second to read and react instead of crashing the LOS on first downs. Right now we are way too dependent on the run game and we don't have to be.

It'll be interesting to see if the Ravens can come out and be more productively balanced vs the Steelers. If we can this offense will be scary.

[Dudeman]

Agreed, but I don't need a graph or statisitics to tell me that our offense is predictable and frustrating to watch.

 

I'm as big a Ravens fan as any, but this offense makes you want to pull your hair out when you watch them.  Too many pre-snap penalties, too many three and outs, too many turn-overs and drops, too predictable. 

 

We have the personnel to be explosive on offense, especially now that our receivers are getting healthy.  We are returning a lot of the same offensive players that shredded in the play-offs last year.  So why does it feel like we are in pre-season form and the rest of the league can score at will?

 

We have the team to handle any adversity, and we have the team to play great complimentry football.  But I think the main problem on offense is there isn't enough energy and spirit and its just not fun to watch this unit play right now.  We're going to have to start scoring on special teams and defense if we want to get to ten wins at this rate.

 

But don't think for a second that I don't think this team and specifically the offense can get hot if they just add some more plays, and mix up the way they are disguised and called.  We got the right men for the job, and there isn't a better week to right the ship than this week against the Steelers.

 

It would be a huge confidence booster if we can dominate a "lesser" opponent on the road in all three phases.  THAT would make me a happy fan indeed. 

[baltravens]

So, after having looked at this misleading article from the main page:

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Mixing-Up-First-Down-Play-Calls/112a338c-fa35-47e8-8500-64f11069d2b3

 

I decided to take a deeper look at the numbers myself.  I posted this comment there as well, but it's kind of a dead article at this point so I thought it deserved it's own thread for ongoing discussion.  Apologies to the mods if you disagree.

 

Mr. Downing tries to make an argument that it isn't the play-calling, because we are indeed balanced.

 

But these stats are highly skewed by extremes to one side or the other in our first down playcalling.

 

First of all, we have actually run the ball 96 times out of 177 on first down.  That means we're really calling the run on first down 54.2% of the time, not 52.5% of the time.  Now, I can only assume that 93/177 number came from removing our 3 first down kneel-downs, but then you'd also have to subtract those 3 from the overall number of plays making it 93 out of 174, so in that case it's really 53.5% of our first down plays.  Which still isn't really good when you look at NFL averages.

 

Counting kneel-downs, as the NFL does, the Ravens run 54.2% of the time on first down, while the NFL average is 49.0%.  So the NFL average is closer to "balanced" than us, and the difference is favored towards the pass not the run.  If you want to remove kneel-downs, then our 53.5% compares to the NFL average of 48.2%.  So we are still less balanced than the average team, AND we are skewed to the run while they are skewed to the pass.

 

We're even worse in the first half, where we run 55.0% of the time.  We're a little more balanced in the second half.  It's also in the first half where we struggle the most and put up the fewest points.  Hmm...

 

At the beginnings of games, we are VERY unbalanced.  We run the ball 62.9% of the time on first downs in the 1st quarter, compared to the NFL average of 52.6%.

 

From game to game, we are also very unbalanced.  Over multiple games this gives the illusion of balance, but within individual games we have no balance at all.

 

By week, this is the percentage of run plays called on first downs:

 

W1 = 29.7%

W2 = 70.0%

W3 = 72.7%

W4 = 18.5%

W5 = 79.4%

W6 = 59.3%

 

Here's a graph, because graphs are fun:

 

 

The purple line straight across from 50, THAT would be balanced.  As you can see, from week to week, we are WAY off to either extreme from that.

 

That screams unbalanced.  There is no mixing of the play calls within each game.  We are either all in on the pass or all in on the run from week to week.  Last week was actually our most balanced game, but that's only because we were very off-balance in the first half (69.2% first downs were run plays) when we performed atrociously, and then we became perfectly balanced in the second half (50.0% run plays on first downs), and what do you know, our offense was significantly better in the second half.

 

P.S. Sorry about the typo in the topic title.

 

Yes, without even reading your post word-for-word, our first-down success either running or passing has been weak. We just don't seem to be getting anything going on our first play of a series.

[hawkprey]

I'm sure the run/pass ratio would have a high correlation with the point spread. Something like 70% runs on 1st down when not trailing by 8+ and 80% passes when trailing by that much.

[Militant X 1]

Agreed, but I don't need a graph or statisitics to tell me that our offense is predictable and frustrating to watch.

 

I'm as big a Ravens fan as any, but this offense makes you want to pull your hair out when you watch them.  Too many pre-snap penalties, too many three and outs, too many turn-overs and drops, too predictable. 

 

We have the personnel to be explosive on offense, especially now that our receivers are getting healthy.  We are returning a lot of the same offensive players that shredded in the play-offs last year.  So why does it feel like we are in pre-season form and the rest of the league can score at will?

 

We have the team to handle any adversity, and we have the team to play great complimentry football.  But I think the main problem on offense is there isn't enough energy and spirit and its just not fun to watch this unit play right now.  We're going to have to start scoring on special teams and defense if we want to get to ten wins at this rate.

 

But don't think for a second that I don't think this team and specifically the offense can get hot if they just add some more plays, and mix up the way they are disguised and called.  We got the right men for the job, and there isn't a better week to right the ship than this week against the Steelers.

 

It would be a huge confidence booster if we can dominate a "lesser" opponent on the road in all three phases.  THAT would make me a happy fan indeed. 

I agree 100% Dude!

 

#Mili

[callahan09]

Adding in this week's game, where we ran 8 times vs 16 passes on first downs for 33.3% rush on first downs:

 

W1 = 29.7%

W2 = 70.0%

W3 = 72.7%

W4 = 18.5%

W5 = 79.4%

W6 = 59.3%

W7 = 33.3%

 

Again, an unbalanced week.  This was very lopsided towards the pass in the first half (10 Pass, 1 Rush = 9.1% Rush)

, and then very balanced in the second half (6 Pass, 7 Rush = 53.8% Rush).  Adding those halves into our list of halves, we get one more unbalanced half (skewed pass), and one more balanced half, leaving us with 4 out of 14 balanced halves of football this season.

 

6.7%

9.1%

12.5%

33.3%

42.9%

50.0%

50.0%

53.8%

62.5%

69.2%

77.3%

78.6%

83.3%

87.5%

[callahan09]

So how do we perform in our 4 balanced halves of football vs our 10 unbalanced halves?

 

These numbers are averages per half...

 

BALANCED:

35.0 Plays, 211.8 Yards, 6.05 Yards Per Play, 10.3 First Downs, 29.3% First Downs, 0.3 Turnovers, 11 Points

 

UNBALANCED:

33.4 Plays, 144.7 Yards, 4.33 Yards Per Play, 7.4 First Downs, 22.2% First Downs, 1.1 Turnovers, 9.2 Points

 

Pretty huge difference.  We are significantly better on offense when we are balanced in 1st down play-calling.  And yet... 71% of football we've played this season has been decidedly UNbalanced (10 out of 14 halves had more than a 20-point swing in the direction of either being pass or run heavy on 1st down play-calling).

[PerpetuallyBored74]

The fact that Harbaugh and Caldwell can't see this for themselves is just discouraging...

 

Anyhow, thank you callahan09 for confirming what we all suspected.