1st Down play calling breakdown

[jdynamite]

we aren't complaining about running to much, in fact I think it was almost perfect, almost.

We are complaining that 72 percent of our first down plays are runs. Add In the fact we average under three is it any wonder we have so many third downs?

We are too predictable. 1st down play calling needs to be closer to 50 50. Even if those passes are screens or just quick slanta for 4 5 6 yards. That opens literally the whole play book on second dowb. Can run call short quick pass get the first attack middle field or take a shot. Call playaction cause they might think run or even a draw.

The options on 2nd and 5 or so are plentiful and it will really help the offense if we were in that situation more instead of 2 and 8 or 9 as it always seems to be.

You explained that perfectly.. It's not a complaint of too much running, we had a fairly balanced attack which was great....

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

I seem to recall us running on a high majority of 1st downs during our playoff and super bowl run. Anyone care to post those numbers?

 

Just mentioning it bc I didn't hear anyone complaining about it, or the offenses performance back then.

[T3hRaven]

We have got to have more play diversity on first down.  I don't know what's going on, it didn't seem like Caldwell was like this in the playoffs.

[Latch]

I agree 100%. Way too vanilla. Run-Run-Pass-Punt making a vengeance. 

[mdrsharon]

It is fine to run the ball, but where are the holes to let Ray or Pierce through?

Let's hope the new line addition will get it done.

 

I do like a little change up of plays, we do seem bogged down. How about some screens, or even really throw defenses a loop and do a trick play once and awhile. End around, fakes, etc.

As much as I can't stand him, Peyton Manning faked out the entire Cowboy team for that TD yesterday, it was great.

Remember that fake punt two years ago - it was awesome.

 

Of course, everything has to be taken in the context of the game - field position, time remaining, etc. But at the start of the game or half- just blow the opponents away with the unexpected!

[beanfigger]

Yeah, that is WAY to high a percentage. It should not be more than 50-60%. Nearly 80 percent means that the other team can set up for a 1st down run and be correct 8 out of 10 times. Could be why they are stuffing our runs so easily. If you know the offense is going to usually run, then it is easy to stop.

 

Yes, 8 out of 10 times is too much.  When I found out the percentage was closer to 80%, I agreed with all of this and took this statement back.  72% is not that close to 80%.  It's less than 3 out of 4 times, which means the defense still has to guess.  If they're wrong more than one out of every four times by playing run every time, they will get burned often enough for us to get positive production on that down.  However, 80% is too much.  That I have to side with you on.

[T3hRaven]

Besides the first down predictability, have we been running the no huddle?  Maybe I wasn't paying as close of attention as I thought, but it seems like we haven't been using it much this season.

[jdynamite]

I seem to recall us running on a high majority of 1st downs during our playoff and super bowl run. Anyone care to post those numbers?

Just mentioning it bc I didn't hear anyone complaining about it, or the offenses performance back then.

Looking at the play by play for the Super Bowl 1st down calls :
11 passes , 17 runs
We ran 60.7 % of 1st downs in the superbowl.
But we began the game passing on the first two 1st downs at the end of first half we has 7 passes, 8 runs.
At half we were up 21-6, following half kickoff return 28-6 from there game totally changed and it became more of let's hold on to the lead rather than continue attacking.

I believe if I looked at the patriot game, the first half would be heavy 1st down runs, 2nd half would be more pass dominate because the offense began to go more quick tempo passing with Flacco attacking the middle of field.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

Looking at the play by play for the Super Bowl 1st down calls :
11 passes , 17 runs
We ran 60.7 % of 1st downs in the superbowl.
But we began the game passing on the first two 1st downs at the end of first half we has 7 passes, 8 runs.
At half we were up 21-6, following half kickoff return 28-6 from there game totally changed and it became more of let's hold on to the lead rather than continue attacking.
I believe if I looked at the patriot game, the first half would be heavy 1st down runs, 2nd half would be more pass dominate because the offense began to go more quick tempo passing with Flacco attacking the middle of field.

What about over the 4 game span. My thought was more on it being a Caldwell tendency to run a lot on 1st down - not really an opinion on whether I like it or not.

There's a reason I said playoffs and Super Bowl, not just Super Bowl. And honestly I don't know, those numbers could be similar to what it was averaged over all 4 games but pulling just the Super Bowls numbers doesn't prove it's not a tendency of his.... But my memory tells me he has a history of often running on 1st down almost to a level or predictability and has had success in doing so. My point was more that its more glaringly obvious when the offense doesn't perform well.

And we can complain about it all we want, I think the fact still remains that whether we run 80% 40% or 55-65% on 1st down its still all going to come back to executing. Agains the bills we barely ran the ball (though I beleive still a relatively high % on 1st downs considering the low # of total carries) had 5 turnovers and yet still if we had executed and/or limited mistakes we win.

Against Miami we ran heavy on 1st down yet still won and if we had executed better blocking to give Joe time and open up running lanes that game wouldn't have even been close. If not even for the turnover I doubt the game would have been close.

Point being, I don't think that bc the rest of the league doesn't run on 1st down as much doesn't make it the right thing. In fact I'd like to see that stat instead bc it would be a lot more telling - instead of just a league wide average what % of 1st down runs did the winning teams have vs losing teams broken down team by team or even a cumulative average of all winners vs all losers. Typically teams down a few scores in the 2nd half can't waste time and need yards fast so I think that would help inflate (or is it deflate?) that % bc they have to come out throwing more and more to catch up.

Again I'm just raising questions not necessarily weighing my opinion in on the subject bc I don't have the numbers... But what if they do show a correlation between running a high % on 1st down and winning or low % throwing and losing. Would we still want to see the team standardly adhering to the league wide average?

I just don't like looking for things like this to explain why the offense or defense isn't doing what we think they should or are capable of doing. I feel like its an excuse. Plain and simple when joe had time to throw we moved the ball every time. When the Oline got push and blocked the 1st level the run game was very effective on 1st down. If we had executed the whole game we'd all be saying how great the run/pass balance was and not even realize how many of those runs were on 1st downs. Ad the fact that we ran a ton on 1st in the second half and had most of our success on those runs shows that "predictability" isn't to blame for our offensive, more specifically the run game's woes - it's simply the big guys up front not doing their job.

[Hey Diddle]

Theory here, 

 

The coaches know the stats to, so its kinda a head game. We run most of time 70%+ on 1st down, so when we do throw, that rare pass on 1st down, it really hits the other defense off guard.  Even though it makes it harder to run on 1st.  If the defense knows you are going to run on 1st an still can't stop you, well the game is over then with our fantastic Defense. 

[BMORElegacy]

Actually it was 79.4% of first down plays that were runs.  7 passes vs 27 rushes on first down.

 

We gained 3.91 yards per play on first down, which was the 4th worst out of every team that played yesterday.  The average yards earned per play on first down yesterday was 5.78.

 

That 79.4% of first down plays that were runs is a little outrageous when you think about the results it led to, being very few yards per play on first down, and when you consider that the average percentage of run plays on first downs in the NFL yesterday was 50.7%.

 

If you take the Ravens out of that equation, the other teams besides the Ravens yesterday ran 328 times on first down, out of 666 plays, which makes for a 49.2% average.

 

So the NFL average runs about half the time on first down, while we run closer to 80% of the time?  And the NFL average gains far more yards per play on first down than we do.

 

To me, these numbers are absolutely outrageous.

You should compile all your stats, put them in an envelope, and mail them to Harbs at the Castle. I'm not even joking. 

[Rav'n Maniac]

To me, it's not only how much we run on 1st down that makes us predictable. That, combined with everything up the gut cripples us.

Why is it we rarely run off tackle? The few times I see us get outside is when we are forced to bounce it out because of a closed gap. Is it because our backs aren't fast enough to make it outside. Or is it that our line can't move? Don't we have anyone who can pull?

[Ed_Reed20]

To me, it's not only how much we run on 1st down that makes us predictable. That, combined with everything up the gut cripples us.

Why is it we rarely run off tackle? The few times I see us get outside is when we are forced to bounce it out because of a closed gap. Is it because our backs aren't fast enough to make it outside. Or is it that our line can't move? Don't we have anyone who can pull?

 

You have to have quality run-blockers at tackle to run off-tackle effectively.

[Rav'n Maniac]

You have to have quality run-blockers at tackle to run off-tackle effectively.

That's funny and I agree with you. So are you saying that our coaches know our tackles suck and won't even try running outside because of it. If that's the case it really makes us one dimensional in our run game.

[The Raven]

That's funny and I agree with you. So are you saying that our coaches know our tackles suck and won't even try running outside because of it. If that's the case it really makes us one dimensional in our run game.

 

Actually, the two big 30 yard runs Pierce has broken off in the past few games have been off-tackle. Maybe we need to do more of it.

[jdynamite]

What about over the 4 game span. My thought was more on it being a Caldwell tendency to run a lot on 1st down - not really an opinion on whether I like it or not.

There's a reason I said playoffs and Super Bowl, not just Super Bowl. And honestly I don't know, those numbers could be similar to what it was averaged over all 4 games but pulling just the Super Bowls numbers doesn't prove it's not a tendency of his.... But my memory tells me he has a history of often running on 1st down almost to a level or predictability and has had success in doing so. My point was more that its more glaringly obvious when the offense doesn't perform well.

And we can complain about it all we want, I think the fact still remains that whether we run 80% 40% or 55-65% on 1st down its still all going to come back to executing. Agains the bills we barely ran the ball (though I beleive still a relatively high % on 1st downs considering the low # of total carries) had 5 turnovers and yet still if we had executed and/or limited mistakes we win.

Against Miami we ran heavy on 1st down yet still won and if we had executed better blocking to give Joe time and open up running lanes that game wouldn't have even been close. If not even for the turnover I doubt the game would have been close.

Point being, I don't think that bc the rest of the league doesn't run on 1st down as much doesn't make it the right thing. In fact I'd like to see that stat instead bc it would be a lot more telling - instead of just a league wide average what % of 1st down runs did the winning teams have vs losing teams broken down team by team or even a cumulative average of all winners vs all losers. Typically teams down a few scores in the 2nd half can't waste time and need yards fast so I think that would help inflate (or is it deflate?) that % bc they have to come out throwing more and more to catch up.

Again I'm just raising questions not necessarily weighing my opinion in on the subject bc I don't have the numbers... But what if they do show a correlation between running a high % on 1st down and winning or low % throwing and losing. Would we still want to see the team standardly adhering to the league wide average?

I just don't like looking for things like this to explain why the offense or defense isn't doing what we think they should or are capable of doing. I feel like its an excuse. Plain and simple when joe had time to throw we moved the ball every time. When the Oline got push and blocked the 1st level the run game was very effective on 1st down. If we had executed the whole game we'd all be saying how great the run/pass balance was and not even realize how many of those runs were on 1st downs. Ad the fact that we ran a ton on 1st in the second half and had most of our success on those runs shows that "predictability" isn't to blame for our offensive, more specifically the run game's woes - it's simply the big guys up front not doing their job.

At first I started to not even do the Super Bowl because I feel that last year was last year now. The superbowl and playoffs were with different personnel and Caldwell was making in-game adjustments that it seem Cam Cameron rarely made.
Like in the patriot game AFCCG , when we were running a lot on early downs in the first half, and in the second half as they transitioned into a more uptempo they begin to have more balance in the attack on early downs.

And yeah I know you said the playoffs but man it takes time to count those plays lol I don't have access to a stat-site lol

I agree the OLine does need to step up in the run and pass game.

[Rav'n Maniac]

Actually, the two big 30 yard runs Pierce has broken off in the past few games have been off-tackle. Maybe we need to do more of it.

There it is, and exactly my point. We have stuffed it up the middle so much that teams are anticipating it and shooting the gaps. It doesn't hurt us to pitch it outside more often.