Rice vs. Pierce -- And a new way of analyzing the run game from statistics

[callahan09]

Two games into the season, the run game has looked fairly disappointing so far.  I understand that the offensive line and the blocking schemes are an important component in the success of the run game, so when we talk about whether a player is performing well, you must always keep in mind that they are not the only player on the field and there are other circumstances that can lead to the statistics we're left to interpret.

 

But with that disclaimer out of the way, I do want to take a look at the numbers from a different perspective than perhaps we've seen before.  This is all still sort of in development and could possibly evolve into something more complex later, but for now, I think I'm happy enough with what I see to share the fruits of my labor.

 

Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce appear statistically to be about equal this year.  The stat line we'd typically see shows us this:

 

Rice: 72 yards on 25 carries, 1 touchdown, 2.88 yards per attempt

Pierce: 79 yards on 28 carries, 1 touchdown, 2.82 yards per attempt

 

That's essentially a dead heat.

 

From my alternative way of looking at the statistics, we will see quite a divide indeed.  First and foremost, you don't always see the fumbles statistic listed on the line, and in that regard Rice (with 1 fumble) is hurt compared to Pierce (with 0).

 

The primary ways of looking at a running back's performance are typically total yards and yards per attempt.  I'm going to flip that on its head a little bit: I will give 1/3 weight to yards per attempt, and 2/3 weight to the value of each individual play from a positive/negative outcome point of view.  What this means is that I'm going to score each play (based off statistics, not subjectivity) in order to come up with a value that increases based upon first downs, touchdowns, and yards gained, and decreases based on fumbles, yards lost, and stuffed runs.

 

Let me give some quick anecdotal examples of how this applies before I continue to the numbers:

 

If a running back is always brought in for 1-yard to go type situations and *always* converts, he has done a perfect job, even if he only has a 1 yard per carry average and 50 total yards on the year.  50 yards on 50 carries looks terrible... but if you're a 1-yard specialist and you have a 100% success rate at achieving the first down, you've actually added tremendous value to your team, so looking at yards and yards per attempt aren't helpful in analyzing this player's production.  (This would get you somewhere in the 8.50 range, which you'll know more about what that means by the end of this post).

 

From another angle, a player who gets tackled for a loss on first down every drive, but manages to bust a 50 yard run every game will probably even out and look like they have a decent yards per attempt.  But is a single play that gets your team into field goal range going to make up for all the 3 and outs you help set up by getting stuffed every other drive?

 

OK, as a second disclaimer, I'm not going to reveal all of the numbers that are going into this right now, or the formula behind it.  But I will reiterate that this weighs two parts: 1/3xYPA and 2/3xEfficiency.

 

The Efficiency is my sum of points evaluated based on fumbles, loss of yardage, no gains, below average gains, average gains, above average gains, first downs, and touchdowns.

 

So, through these first 2 games of 2013 so far, we have the following production:

 

Ray Rice

Fumble: 1

Loss of yardage: 3

No gain: 6

Below average gain: 5

Average gain: 3

Above average gain: 3

First down: 3

Touchdown: 1

Yards: 72

Plays: 25

 

Value: 2.80

 

Bernard Pierce

Fumble: 0

Loss of yardage: 3

No gain: 4

Below average gain: 8

Average gain: 3

Above average gain: 6

First down: 3

Touchdown: 1

Yards: 79

Plays: 28

 

Value: 3.98

 

And just so we can see how the team is looking overall:

 

Ravens Team Total

Fumble: 1

Loss of yardage: 6

No gain: 10

Below average gain: 13

Average gain: 6

Above average gain: 10

First down: 6

Touchdown: 2

Yards: 160

Plays: 54

 

Value: 3.56

 

That last one is my final evaluated score... I'm calling it Value, but if you want to think of it as a rushing-version of Adjusted Yards Per Attempt, that's good too.  It's more complex than the passing version of AYPA, but it's a similar concept all the same.

 

The most I'll say about it right now is that anything above 8.33 is nearly perfection, the kind of performance that means you can put the team on your back and produce first downs and touchdowns on virtually every drive.  In reality, the possible scores range from -59.5 to 59.5.

 

Anything in the 3 or lower range is not good and indicates a serious lack of contribution and trouble helping to sustain drives.

 

Somewhere in between 3 and 7 is where we'll find the vast majority of players.

 

Right now, league average rushing Value is 5.05 (includes QBs, but with kneeldown plays removed).

 

As you can see from the results above, Bernard Pierce is helping this team a lot more than Ray Rice, despite their traditional stat lines looking about the same.

 

Overall though, our team rushing Value is significantly below league average right now.

 

Currently, the league leader is LeSean McCoy with a Value of 7.82.  This total is unlikely to stand... For comparison's sake, last year's leader was Adrian Peterson with a 6.04.  That gives us all a little confidence I think that these small sample sizes in a 2-game stretch to start the season probably aren't going to be indicative of what we'll see throughout the course of an entire season.

[5aiah]

Dude.......Awesome.

[runamuk]

awesome very good read .....again .

[beanfigger]

It's the RBR like the one for QBs, only it doesn't suck.

[A Fish Called Yanda]

Someone put this in an envelope, spray their perfume on it, and get a courier to deliver it directly to John.

[arnie_uk]

Pretty much what alot of people thought. Rice gets stuffed to often especially on first down. Pierce more often than not makes something happen

[billick]

PP crushed #90 on his TD run. The dude dropped to his hands and knees. Much more effective than taunting him.

 

Paul is a beast !!

[Bltravens]

PP crushed #90 on his TD run. The dude dropped to his hands and knees. Much more effective than taunting him.

 

Paul is a beast !!

Bernard, but I agree Pierce is a beast.

Pierce will also make something out of nothing, even if its a handful of yards.  Rice 95% of the time goes down on initial contact.

[The Raven]

Bernard, but I agree Pierce is a beast.

Pierce will also make something out of nothing, even if its a handful of yards.  Rice 95% of the time goes down on initial contact.

 

And the other 5%, the turf monster gets him... Lol

[beanfigger]

Bernard, but I agree Pierce is a beast.

Pierce will also make something out of nothing, even if its a handful of yards. Rice 95% of the time goes down on initial contact.

You're sure he wasn't talking about the guy who played for the Celtics this past decade?

[T3hRaven]

Someone has a little time on their hands, but I'm impressed. You're posting some quality reads man. It fits what a lot of us are seeing which is promising, but I'd like to see how it holds up over the course of the season.

[arnie_uk]

Someone has a little time on their hands, but I'm impressed. You're posting some quality reads man. It fits what a lot of us are seeing which is promising, but I'd like to see how it holds up over the course of the season.

i think that's why he hasn't fully explained the forumla yet, because its only two games. I sure he will bump the that come week 17

[NaveSenrag]

I'm not sure how to feel about buying into a subjective formula, but you've got a hell of a track record with this stuff, Cal.

[cursona pirate]

to much math and numbers confuse me. But i can see this being a statistic on Nfl.com or ESPN.

[Poes Crows]

Two games into the season, the run game has looked fairly disappointing so far.  I understand that the offensive line and the blocking schemes are an important component in the success of the run game, so when we talk about whether a player is performing well, you must always keep in mind that they are not the only player on the field and there are other circumstances that can lead to the statistics we're left to interpret.

 

But with that disclaimer out of the way, I do want to take a look at the numbers from a different perspective than perhaps we've seen before.  This is all still sort of in development and could possibly evolve into something more complex later, but for now, I think I'm happy enough with what I see to share the fruits of my labor.

 

Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce appear statistically to be about equal this year.  The stat line we'd typically see shows us this:

 

Rice: 72 yards on 25 carries, 1 touchdown, 2.88 yards per attempt

Pierce: 79 yards on 28 carries, 1 touchdown, 2.82 yards per attempt

 

That's essentially a dead heat.

 

From my alternative way of looking at the statistics, we will see quite a divide indeed.  First and foremost, you don't always see the fumbles statistic listed on the line, and in that regard Rice (with 1 fumble) is hurt compared to Pierce (with 0).

 

The primary ways of looking at a running back's performance are typically total yards and yards per attempt.  I'm going to flip that on its head a little bit: I will give 1/3 weight to yards per attempt, and 2/3 weight to the value of each individual play from a positive/negative outcome point of view.  What this means is that I'm going to score each play (based off statistics, not subjectivity) in order to come up with a value that increases based upon first downs, touchdowns, and yards gained, and decreases based on fumbles, yards lost, and stuffed runs.

 

Let me give some quick anecdotal examples of how this applies before I continue to the numbers:

 

If a running back is always brought in for 1-yard to go type situations and *always* converts, he has done a perfect job, even if he only has a 1 yard per carry average and 50 total yards on the year.  50 yards on 50 carries looks terrible... but if you're a 1-yard specialist and you have a 100% success rate at achieving the first down, you've actually added tremendous value to your team, so looking at yards and yards per attempt aren't helpful in analyzing this player's production.  (This would get you somewhere in the 8.50 range, which you'll know more about what that means by the end of this post).

 

From another angle, a player who gets tackled for a loss on first down every drive, but manages to bust a 50 yard run every game will probably even out and look like they have a decent yards per attempt.  But is a single play that gets your team into field goal range going to make up for all the 3 and outs you help set up by getting stuffed every other drive?

 

OK, as a second disclaimer, I'm not going to reveal all of the numbers that are going into this right now, or the formula behind it.  But I will reiterate that this weighs two parts: 1/3xYPA and 2/3xEfficiency.

 

The Efficiency is my sum of points evaluated based on fumbles, loss of yardage, no gains, below average gains, average gains, above average gains, first downs, and touchdowns.

 

So, through these first 2 games of 2013 so far, we have the following production:

 

Ray Rice

Fumble: 1

Loss of yardage: 3

No gain: 6

Below average gain: 5

Average gain: 3

Above average gain: 3

First down: 3

Touchdown: 1

Yards: 72

Plays: 25

 

Value: 2.80

 

Bernard Pierce

Fumble: 0

Loss of yardage: 3

No gain: 4

Below average gain: 8

Average gain: 3

Above average gain: 6

First down: 3

Touchdown: 1

Yards: 79

Plays: 28

 

Value: 3.98

 

And just so we can see how the team is looking overall:

 

Ravens Team Total

Fumble: 1

Loss of yardage: 6

No gain: 10

Below average gain: 13

Average gain: 6

Above average gain: 10

First down: 6

Touchdown: 2

Yards: 160

Plays: 54

 

Value: 3.56

 

That last one is my final evaluated score... I'm calling it Value, but if you want to think of it as a rushing-version of Adjusted Yards Per Attempt, that's good too.  It's more complex than the passing version of AYPA, but it's a similar concept all the same.

 

The most I'll say about it right now is that anything above 8.33 is nearly perfection, the kind of performance that means you can put the team on your back and produce first downs and touchdowns on virtually every drive.  In reality, the possible scores range from -59.5 to 59.5.

 

Anything in the 3 or lower range is not good and indicates a serious lack of contribution and trouble helping to sustain drives.

 

Somewhere in between 3 and 7 is where we'll find the vast majority of players.

 

Right now, league average rushing Value is 5.05 (includes QBs, but with kneeldown plays removed).

 

As you can see from the results above, Bernard Pierce is helping this team a lot more than Ray Rice, despite their traditional stat lines looking about the same.

 

Overall though, our team rushing Value is significantly below league average right now.

 

Currently, the league leader is LeSean McCoy with a Value of 7.82.  This total is unlikely to stand... For comparison's sake, last year's leader was Adrian Peterson with a 6.04.  That gives us all a little confidence I think that these small sample sizes in a 2-game stretch to start the season probably aren't going to be indicative of what we'll see throughout the course of an entire season.

Whoa.....

 

You're not really putting that much calculation into such a small statistical sample are you? Oh...there was that ending disclaimer.

 

At this juncture, maybe focusing upon the Offensive Line and asking similar questions would lead to something to think about.

[pbutcher]

Interesting. Food for thought. Just visually speaking, I like the way Pierce runs a lot more than Rice right now.

[Alexir]

I said it last year, I like both of our guys but Pierce should start and Rice should be our Sproles.

[gabefergy]

Very nice work. I would be curious to see last year's numbers for Rice and Pierce if you have them. 2011 Rice too.

From this small sample size the fumble clearly hurts Rice as their performances have been relatively similar. Just a couple more "above average" runs for Pierce.

[RedFire]

Ray Rice is still getting catches. Rice is the team leader in catches along with Torrey smith. 

 

 

You have to get the ball in playmakers hands with short plays and let them create (short passing makes up for some of the run game). Also the thread starter stat does not take into account numbers against different fronts. I think the results change between 6,7, or 8 in the box. Also,a RB making a good chip or a block is an important thing to look at in terms of efficient play IMO and most NFL coaches.If a RB can't block well enough....you will be sitting on a bench. 

 

 

 

Cool stat for fantasy football or something that is not points per reception. But Pierce and Rice do not get the same looks and attention by defenses. Give me a stat that includes the number of men in the box....and I'll give it more weight. Running against 6 is not same as running against 9. But i applaud the effort. 

[PurpleCityLights]

sooooooo the time has come for you all to jump off Ray Rice bandwagon for Bernard. Just remember the Front Office aways looks for the better player so when Joe's time is up or a better QB comes along I dont want to hear your crys....

[ellicottraven]

Two games into the season, the run game has looked fairly disappointing so far.  I understand that the offensive line and the blocking schemes are an important component in the success of the run game, so when we talk about whether a player is performing well, you must always keep in mind that they are not the only player on the field and there are other circumstances that can lead to the statistics we're left to interpret.
 
But with that disclaimer out of the way, I do want to take a look at the numbers from a different perspective than perhaps we've seen before.  This is all still sort of in development and could possibly evolve into something more complex later, but for now, I think I'm happy enough with what I see to share the fruits of my labor.
 
Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce appear statistically to be about equal this year.  The stat line we'd typically see shows us this:
 
Rice: 72 yards on 25 carries, 1 touchdown, 2.88 yards per attempt
Pierce: 79 yards on 28 carries, 1 touchdown, 2.82 yards per attempt
 
That's essentially a dead heat.
 
From my alternative way of looking at the statistics, we will see quite a divide indeed.  First and foremost, you don't always see the fumbles statistic listed on the line, and in that regard Rice (with 1 fumble) is hurt compared to Pierce (with 0).
 
The primary ways of looking at a running back's performance are typically total yards and yards per attempt.  I'm going to flip that on its head a little bit: I will give 1/3 weight to yards per attempt, and 2/3 weight to the value of each individual play from a positive/negative outcome point of view.  What this means is that I'm going to score each play (based off statistics, not subjectivity) in order to come up with a value that increases based upon first downs, touchdowns, and yards gained, and decreases based on fumbles, yards lost, and stuffed runs.
 
Let me give some quick anecdotal examples of how this applies before I continue to the numbers:
 
If a running back is always brought in for 1-yard to go type situations and *always* converts, he has done a perfect job, even if he only has a 1 yard per carry average and 50 total yards on the year.  50 yards on 50 carries looks terrible... but if you're a 1-yard specialist and you have a 100% success rate at achieving the first down, you've actually added tremendous value to your team, so looking at yards and yards per attempt aren't helpful in analyzing this player's production.  (This would get you somewhere in the 8.50 range, which you'll know more about what that means by the end of this post).
 
From another angle, a player who gets tackled for a loss on first down every drive, but manages to bust a 50 yard run every game will probably even out and look like they have a decent yards per attempt.  But is a single play that gets your team into field goal range going to make up for all the 3 and outs you help set up by getting stuffed every other drive?
 
OK, as a second disclaimer, I'm not going to reveal all of the numbers that are going into this right now, or the formula behind it.  But I will reiterate that this weighs two parts: 1/3xYPA and 2/3xEfficiency.
 
The Efficiency is my sum of points evaluated based on fumbles, loss of yardage, no gains, below average gains, average gains, above average gains, first downs, and touchdowns.
 
So, through these first 2 games of 2013 so far, we have the following production:
 
Ray Rice
Fumble: 1
Loss of yardage: 3
No gain: 6
Below average gain: 5
Average gain: 3
Above average gain: 3
First down: 3
Touchdown: 1
Yards: 72
Plays: 25
 
Value: 2.80
 
Bernard Pierce
Fumble: 0
Loss of yardage: 3
No gain: 4
Below average gain: 8
Average gain: 3
Above average gain: 6
First down: 3
Touchdown: 1
Yards: 79
Plays: 28
 
Value: 3.98
 
And just so we can see how the team is looking overall:
 
Ravens Team Total
Fumble: 1
Loss of yardage: 6
No gain: 10
Below average gain: 13
Average gain: 6
Above average gain: 10
First down: 6
Touchdown: 2
Yards: 160
Plays: 54
 
Value: 3.56
 
That last one is my final evaluated score... I'm calling it Value, but if you want to think of it as a rushing-version of Adjusted Yards Per Attempt, that's good too.  It's more complex than the passing version of AYPA, but it's a similar concept all the same.
 
The most I'll say about it right now is that anything above 8.33 is nearly perfection, the kind of performance that means you can put the team on your back and produce first downs and touchdowns on virtually every drive.  In reality, the possible scores range from -59.5 to 59.5.
 
Anything in the 3 or lower range is not good and indicates a serious lack of contribution and trouble helping to sustain drives.
 
Somewhere in between 3 and 7 is where we'll find the vast majority of players.
 
Right now, league average rushing Value is 5.05 (includes QBs, but with kneeldown plays removed).
 
As you can see from the results above, Bernard Pierce is helping this team a lot more than Ray Rice, despite their traditional stat lines looking about the same.
 
Overall though, our team rushing Value is significantly below league average right now.
 
Currently, the league leader is LeSean McCoy with a Value of 7.82.  This total is unlikely to stand... For comparison's sake, last year's leader was Adrian Peterson with a 6.04.  That gives us all a little confidence I think that these small sample sizes in a 2-game stretch to start the season probably aren't going to be indicative of what we'll see throughout the course of an entire season.

Well done Sire! (sorry been watching too much Merlin lately)

[Footman DCXLV]

It's always nice to see numbers that support your opinion. Rice brings more to an offense, and you can't argue against his track record for big plays, especially in the clutch. But, as a pure runner, I'm starting to lean more and more toward thinking I'd rather have Pierce get 60-70% of the carries, and have Rice focus more on third downs.

 

It's just like you explained. Rice gets nothing, nothing, and nothing before busting a big play or two, and it gives him good numbers that make it look like he's having a good game. But, the reality is that every time we lose a game and blame it on "not running the ball enough," we usually see a bunch of failed runs on first and second down which leave us no choice but to throw the ball on third-and-long. You can't commit to a running game that's giving you nothing.

 

Pierce, with limited carries, had a better average yards-per-rush than Rice last year, and I'd really like to see what he can do as a featured running back. We've even seen him make some nifty moves as a receiver here and there, so I'm very excited to see what he looks like today with the leading role. A big game, regardless of the final score, could change our running game going forward even with a healthy Rice. 

[The Raven]

sooooooo the time has come for you all to jump off Ray Rice bandwagon for Bernard. Just remember the Front Office aways looks for the better player so when Joe's time is up or a better QB comes along I dont want to hear your crys....

 

Please stop posting, you lower the IQ of the entire board.

[RedFire]

It's always nice to see numbers that support your opinion. Rice brings more to an offense, and you can't argue against his track record for big plays, especially in the clutch. But, as a pure runner, I'm starting to lean more and more toward thinking I'd rather have Pierce get 60-70% of the carries, and have Rice focus more on third downs.

It's just like you explained. Rice gets nothing, nothing, and nothing before busting a big play or two, and it gives him good numbers that make it look like he's having a good game. But, the reality is that every time we lose a game and blame it on "not running the ball enough," we usually see a bunch of failed runs on first and second down which leave us no choice but to throw the ball on third-and-long. You can't commit to a running game that's giving you nothing.

Pierce, with limited carries, had a better average yards-per-rush than Rice last year, and I'd really like to see what he can do as a featured running back. We've even seen him make some nifty moves as a receiver here and there, so I'm very excited to see what he looks like today with the leading role. A big game, regardless of the final score, could change our running game going forward even with a healthy Rice.

Consistently running on 1st down is predictable. As well a 2nd and short. Play calling is a key factor....

[Footman DCXLV]

Consistently running on 1st down is predictable. As well a 2nd and short. Play calling is a key factor....

 

That's a common argument, and sometimes it's true. But, there are only three downs, and third down is almost always a pass. So, when can you run without it being predictable? Sometimes it's just about execution, rather than play-calling.

[RedFire]

Looks like Pierce is doing the same thing as Rice this afternoon...huh? Different world once the defense keys in on you and they got a Safety in the Box. Flacco had to pass it down field to keep the defense from stacking it up on Pierce. 

 

 

small yards then breaks a few just like Rice...hahaha. 

[BloodRaven]

Something looks off in Pierce's game, like he's carrying extra weight or an injury. He's missing the burst he had last season.

[RedFire]

Something looks off in Pierce's game, like he's carrying extra weight or an injury. He's missing the burst he had last season.

 

 

it ain't easy being the feature back...then he got banged up a little, but luckily he could return. Plus the line sucks as run blockers right now.

 

 

2.7 rushing average yesterday...hmmmm. change of pace back and then becoming the feature back takes a toll. Plus he had only 2 targets in the passing game which ain't very Ray Rice like...but Pierce got 24 caries (1 less than Rice total in the first two games combined), huh? HAHAHA. 

 

 

 

 

 

Do people really watch the games or do they just skim through it?

[ThePurpleWall]

it could help if o line got some blocks for Rice and Pierce.

[ThePurpleWall]

Looks like Pierce is doing the same thing as Rice this afternoon...huh? Different world once the defense keys in on you and they got a Safety in the Box. Flacco had to pass it down field to keep the defense from stacking it up on Pierce. 

 

 

small yards then breaks a few just like Rice...hahaha.