My Analysis - It's All About What Went Wrong in the 3rd Quarter

[callahan09]

Here's my analysis, what I saw that happened in that fateful 3rd quarter.

 

We went into the 2nd half with a 3 point lead, 17-14.  Should have been 21-14, but Dallas Clark dropped an easy, perfectly thrown touchdown pass that should have been a no-brainer catch.

 

So at the start of the second half, the refs call a ball to Wes Welker that hits the ground as a completion, Harbaugh doesn't throw the challenge flag, and then the defense lets Peyton Manning complete the drive for 80 yards and a touchdown.

 

So now we're in the hole by 4 points due to Clark's dropped TD at the end of the first half, rather than having a tied ball game.

 

On the ensuing drive for the Ravens, Ray Rice runs on first down for a loss of 2 yards.  On 2nd and 12, Flacco throws a perfect strike to Ed Dickson past the first down marker, and he butter fingers it.  On 3rd and long, Rick Wagner, on the field due to Oher's injury in the first half, does a terrible job blocking Shaun Phillips and gives up the sack on Flacco.  That's a 3 and out that started with a first down loss of yardage on a rush attempt, and a dropped pass which would have been a first down for Ed Dickson, and finally a sack given up due to terrible blocking by Oher's replacement.  Koch's punt is blocked, and on the next play the Broncos get 7 and now we're losing by 11.

 

Then, on our second drive of the half, we begin with a Bernard Pierce rush on first down for no gain.  We give it to Pierce again on 2nd down and he gets little, setting up 3rd down and 8 to go.  Flacco throws yet another absolutely PERFECT pass to Dallas Clark for the first down, and he drops it upon getting hit by Rahim Moore.  That's another 3 and out.  We punt again and the defense again gives up the long drive for a TD, and we're down by 18.

 

At this point we have to start airing it out.  On our next drive, first down, Ray Rice and Dallas Clark both deliver awful blocks on their assignments and Flacco has to throw the ball away immediately to avoid the sack.  2nd down, Flacco hits Stokley and he gets close to the first down marker.  We hand it off to Rice to try to get the first down, but he gets stuffed, so we have to punt.  The defense actually gets a stop this time and we force a punt and get the ball back.

 

Time's no longer on our side and you can sense we're approaching desperation mode, and we only ran the ball just 1 more time all game from here on (a Bernard Pierce 2 yard gain on 2nd and 10 in the 4th quarter).  On first down Smith doesn't go for the ball leading to a deep incompletion.  The ball is placed only where Smith can get it, it's a a very good throw, and Torrey is watching this ball come at him almost the whole way.  His trajectory is all wrong and he lets himself get tangled up with the cornerback, and so he just simply doesn't give himself the chance to get to the ball, but if he ran the route right he easily would have had it and probably would have gone the distance for a TD.  This could have gotten us back into this game, but, alas, it didn't happen.  Flacco never-the-less completes 2 passes and we get a first down following that.  So on this next first down, Flacco throws a ball to Dallas Clark who doesn't hold onto it.  2nd and 10: Flacco deep to Marlon Brown, it's a beauty of a throw to Brown's back shoulder, he's the only guy who can possibly get it, it his him in the hand and he even manages to bring it into his chest but still fails to complete the catch, so that's yet another drop, and now it's 3rd and 10.  The Broncos blitz 7, the pocket collapses and Flacco has to get rid of the ball (this is really the first failed offensive play of the half that was just a legitimate example of a good defensive play, and not a matter of a dropped pass or just abysmal blocking).  So we punt it again.  Again, the defense gets the stop and we get the ball back on a punt.

 

We start the drive well with a 22 yard completion to Marlon Brown.  Then on first down, Torrey gets beat BAD by Tony Carter, letting him box him out and get behind him and he had to break up the pass to prevent it from being intercepted.  Just another absolutely terrible job running the route by Torrey.  2nd down, Flacco goes deep for Stokley and he just looks slow as molasses and doesn't get to the ball.  3rd and long, Rick Wagner again gives up the sack by doing an awful job of blocking Shaun Phillips again.  We punt, this time the defense doesn't hold, and we give up another TD, now down by 25 and it's the 4th quarter.

 

It's at this point that we should just stop worrying about what we saw on offense, as it really doesn't matter.  There was a TD to Marlon Brown, and there was that should-have-been Pick 6 to Danny Trevathan.  But I wouldn't read much into what we saw here, good or bad.  I did a little research on it going back to 2000, and since then teams are 0-512 when they are down by at least 25 points at any time in the 4th quarter.  In other words, this 4th quarter stuff we were seeing was all garbage time.  Garbage time that *defines* garbage time.  No team ever wins when down that much in the 4th quarter.

 

So what did we learn from this?  The game was lost in the 3rd quarter when the running game was getting stuffed early and the defense let us get way down making us abandon the run and become one dimensional with the pass.  Then the passing game gets stopped due to a perfect storm of a lot of inopportune drops of perfectly placed balls, poorly run routes, and some really bad blocking leading to quick sacks or throwaways.

 

Everything that can go wrong for a quarterback was going wrong in that 3rd quarter, and Flacco remained poised and made the smart and effective play on virtually every down, with no success due to the failures of his teammates.

 

In my re-watching of this game and analysis of that third quarter, I came away with more respect for Flacco than I already had... his stats looked like crap in the 3rd quarter, but his play was as on point as you could ask any QB to perform in those circumstances, but the team around him was playing like garbage.  The run game has to improve.  First down loss of yardage is unacceptable.  Getting stuffed on 3rd and short is unacceptable.  4 carries for a total of 1 yard (0.25 yards per carry!) in the 3rd quarter.  And the receivers have to catch the ball and run the routes properly.  And the defense can't give up a touchdown on more than half of the opponents' possessions.

 

[berad]

:landry:

Great analysis. The name/shame of the game was dropped balls and inconsistent OL play.

[AsianRice]

I really like your analysis, easily taking me back to the game in a very slow motion.  Joe was playing hard and well enough to put us in position to win but his teamates kept letting him down.  Well, it's a team game; you win as a team and lose as a team.  We should blow out the Browns!

[MrPlankton]

Dean Pees' take on it was pretty spot on in a recent press conference, IMO.

[Willbacker]

A lot of people say Manning would have just kept producing TDs as he did even if we would have won the challenge call but I disagree. It's a game of momentum and if we would have had a 3 and out start at the beginning of the 2nd half moimentum and confidence could have been on our side.

[callahan09]

Dean Pees' take on it was pretty spot on in a recent press conference, IMO.

Yeah, honestly, I should have said something in my topic title about this being an offensive analysis.  I may later do an analysis on defense.

[runamuk]

Excellent analysis as always .Good read .

[Tank 92]

Yep.  It all started with the dropped TD just before half.

[callahan09]

It really comes down to the sequence surrounding our first 2 offensive drives in the second half.

 

We gave up 21 points before we had our 3rd possession of the 2nd half.

 

Here's how it all went down... the defense gave up 153 yards and 3 touchdowns surrounding 2 drives for the offense that were both three and outs, comprised of 3 rushes for 0 yards, 2 dropped first down passes, a sack due to a missed block, and a blocked punt.  

 

It was just about as bad of a sequence as you can get, to go in less than 10 minutes from a 3 point lead to an 18 point deficit, on 6 offensive plays for a total of -4 yards, and a blocked punt.

[flynismo]

Agrees with my analysis, which is: we dropped a crap load of easy catchable passes

[Tank 92]

It really comes down to the sequence surrounding our first 2 offensive drives in the second half.
 
We gave up 21 points before we had our 3rd possession of the 2nd half.
 
Here's how it all went down... the defense gave up 153 yards and 3 touchdowns surrounding 2 drives for the offense that were both three and outs, comprised of 3 rushes for 0 yards, 2 dropped first down passes, a sack due to a missed block, and a blocked punt.  
 
It was just about as bad of a sequence as you can get, to go in less than 10 minutes from a 3 point lead to an 18 point deficit, on 6 offensive plays for a total of -4 yards, and a blocked punt.

Practically speaking, exactly correct. But the sinking feeling that we were in trouble came with Clark's drop. It was a "bad" 3 point half time lead.

[dscola1974]

Always informative Callahan.  Great read.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

Good analysis.

 

My only issue with Flacco was his demeanor. He looked miserable, and deservedly so, but you could see on his face that he didn't believe they could win. Its one thing to get fired up and yell at your guys - I don't like that type of leadership though it works for Brady - and im not asking him to be rah rah...

 

But you cant sit there looking glum the entire 2nd half. I really feel "Joe Cool" and that style, but at a certain point you do need to get the guys together and talk to them, and maybe that did happen off cameras but I didn't see it.

 

And don't get me wrong, im VP of the Flacco Fan Club, which is exactly why im extra critical of him.

[Alexir]

We lost 2 key players, that's what I think went wrong . Offense couldn't stay on field, defense was gassed

[bMore Heathen]

It all started with Oher going down. Once the run game disappeared, they double up on Torrey and we had no answer. One of our other targets needs to separate themselves and prove they can win one on one match ups...

[RavensFanMvp]

Great breakdown of the 3rd quarter Callahan.

People (the national media in particular) don't realize how much that blown call by the refs hurt us. It gave the Broncos, who wasn't even suppose to be playing at home, all the momentum. Then they have the nerve to blame Harbs for not challenging the play instead of the real culprits... the officials. Biggest crock of BS I've ever seen.

Believe it or not though, I think this game proves that not only is Joe an elite QB, but he can also put the team on his back and take us where we need to go. Even when everything was going wrong around him (multiple guys dropping passes, no running game, bad officiating, defense giving up a lot of yards and points, block punt, guys running into each other, starting RT getting hurt, etc.) he still put up close to 30 points and close to 400 yards total offense.

I mean, what's the chance of all these bad things happening again in one game? Normally, one or two of these bad things will happen in a game... not all of them.

Joe did his part. We was well on our way to matching the Broncos point for point. This game would have been a shootout, if all these bad things didn't happened. Our offense have the chance to be really good this season, if guys (Clark, Dickson and Stokley in particular), can hold on to the ball. I think Joe dropping back to pass 60 plus times, shouldn't be the norm every game either. I think if we can get the running game started, that will open up the passing game even more, which will give Torrey and Marlon Brown more opportunities to make big plays down field, with one on one match ups.
 

[gabefergy]

It all started with Oher going down. Once the run game disappeared, they double up on Torrey and we had no answer. One of our other targets needs to separate themselves and prove they can win one on one match ups...

They didn't even double Torrey. DRC just took him away. Also, I was not a fan of the play calling as it pertains to the route combinations. Torrey was used almost exclusively outside the numbers in this game. I hope to see more creativity moving forward.

[T3hRaven]

Good read, glad someone took a more detailed look.

[ravens533]

Callahan09, that was a great detailed analysis of the first 10 minutes of the third quarter. It was more exact than the one I gave a friend when I said we played a great first half. An okay 4th considering and 10 minutes of awful.

 

MrPlankton is right in that Dean Pees should be commended for taking the blame and admitting that there were a few plays that he just called in the wrong play and then there were some failures to execute. I do not think we should really blame Pees or the defensive players for anything that happened after that 10 minutes. The offense was trying to play catch up while the receivers kept dropping passes and the defense was just worn out by then. 

 

So perfect storm does describe it very well when you added in the players that were injured.

 

The good news is Oher will be back, the defense has had over a week to see what went wrong and address it (not sure they can fix all the problems in one week, but they should fix most) the receivers have had more than another week of working on timing with Joe and Caldwell has seen what worked and didn't with the players we have and can adjust for it.

 

All the players really hated loosing that way. They will be very open to putting in the work needed to correct mistakes.

 

Therefore: We will beat up on the Browns this Sunday at M&T - Go Ravens!!

[hawkprey]

Dropped passes -> tired defense (in Mile High vs no-huddle) -> need to abandon run -> more dropped passes -> game gets out of hand.

[RLewis52]

Honestly I think if we were at home would of been a whole different game. Not saying we would of dropped 49 on them, but i can say we wouldnt of gave that many up either.  Its difficult when all your players drop everything you throw at them, and then on the other side, seeing one-hoppers being called catches to welker and thomas. Defence could of played better, mainly secondary, but when you look at it, the dropped passes, and the non-catches is what changed that game.

[frozen joe flacco fan]

A bit wordy but spot on analysis! One wrong call by an officiating team can affect the outcome of the game. The hometown no-call in the 3rd qtr. really changed the momentum. However, it did manifest a glaring problem with our offense - our lackluster running game. The inability of the runners to gain any yardage on 1st down left us in very predictable 3rd down throwing situations. It was even more noticeable against Cleveland in game 2. No QB should be throwing 62 passes in a game.

[Neil]

I don't blame Clark for the drop on the Rahim Moore hit.  He got absolutely blown to pieces there.

[Poes Crows]

 

Here's my analysis, what I saw that happened in that fateful 3rd quarter....

 

In my re-watching of this game and analysis of that third quarter, I came away with more respect for Flacco than I already had... his stats looked like crap in the 3rd quarter, but his play was as on point as you could ask any QB to perform in those circumstances, but the team around him was playing like garbage.  The run game has to improve.  First down loss of yardage is unacceptable.  Getting stuffed on 3rd and short is unacceptable.  4 carries for a total of 1 yard (0.25 yards per carry!) in the 3rd quarter.  And the receivers have to catch the ball and run the routes properly.  And the defense can't give up a touchdown on more than half of the opponents' possessions.

 

That was a whole lot of "we were in it".

 

Being close early was a function of Weather and Welker's muffed punt. Once the rain and wind settled down, Manning took hte glove off and torched a very weak secondary.

 

Games always start 0 - 0, don't let that fool you into thinking things were close early.

[beanfigger]

That was a whole lot of "we were in it".

 

Being close early was a function of Weather and Welker's muffed punt. Once the rain and wind settled down, Manning took hte glove off and torched a very weak secondary.

 

Games always start 0 - 0, don't let that fool you into thinking things were close early.

 

Would you then agree that the same can be said about this past game, only in our favor?

[Poes Crows]

Would you then agree that the same can be said about this past game, only in our favor?

 

I don't know.

 

We did go 19 - 13 First Downs...Converted 3rd downs at 50% to their 26%

 

Passing was even....rushing we out rushed them by 30 yards.

 

Penalties were about even.

 

We missed two field goals or it gets to be a comfortable win.

 

They had +1 Turnovers and most times that results in a win for the turnover leader.

 

In the end, I overestimated Weedon and the Browns pass protection. In our weakened state I really thought they would give us a game right down to the end.

 

If we beat Houston, I'll be placated.