ATS Picks for Week One?

[Just Another Crow]

Hey folks. I wasn't sure whether to post this here in "Fantasy" or in the "Other NFL Teams" forum, but I see threads here about pick 'em and survivor leagues so I figured I'd post here. I just noticed there are no threads devoted to discussing the week's spreads and I thought it would be cool if there was a place to talk about favorable spreads, the gut feelings we all get about certain players and matchups, and how each week's events will affect thee weekend's action.

 

I was thinking each week I'll list my gold, silver, and bronze picks and anyone else who is so inclined can list their own picks, or just post a response to mine if you want.

 

Gold Pick: Colts -10 vs. Raiders

The line could be -20 and I would still gladly take that action (it probably wouldn't be my gold pick in that case but it gives you an idea of how solid I think this pick is.) The buzz around Terrelle Pryor is inexplicable to me and says a lot more about Matt Flynn's mind numbing mediocrity than it does about Pryor's playmaking ability. I see this one getting really ugly really fast. (Wild guess total: Colts 40, Raiders 9)

 

Silver Pick: Buccaneers -3 at Jets

Geno might become a good NFL QB... but not by Sunday. Even if he had -- oh you know, a quality receiving target or a serviceable run game or a solid o-line -- even if he had any of those things, he would still be walking into a real baptism by fire against the Bucs defense and its revamped secondary. Tampa had a dominant front seven last year but they got gouged for big plays in the passing game. If their back end catches up to their front end this year they will be smashing spreads left and right, starting with this one. (Wild guess total: Bucs 28, Jets 13)

 

Bronze Pick: Vikings +4.5 at Lions

Yep, a road dog in a division game. If that worries you, don't lay it. But I just can't let a spread like this go to waste on a game that looks like a pick 'em to me. Vikings covered a lot of spreads as dogs last season and beat the Lions outright twice. I could see this one going either either way by a field goal or less. If you like living dangerously you're probably already contemplating a straight up pick on Minny. Trust your gut on that one. (Wild guess total: Vikings 23, Lions 21)

 

Honorable mentions: Seattle -3, Giants +3, Houston -3

 

Thanks for reading, hope you enjoyed it.... good luck!

 

PS - Here's a list of current spreads (this one is from thespread.com) so you don't have to open up a new window and google one. There may be a half-point to a point discrepancy or so from book to book on certain lines (I've seen Minny at +5.5) but these are as good as any to make picks from.

 

2013 NFL Week 1 Point Spreads & Totals

451 Baltimore Ravens +9.5 (48)

452 Denver Broncos -9.5

453 New England Patriots -10 (49)

454 Buffalo Bills +10

455 Tennessee Titans +7 (42)

456 Pittsburgh Steelers -7

457 Atlanta Falcons +3 (54)

458 New Orleans Saints -3

459 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (39.5)

460 New York Jets +3

461 Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (41)

462 Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5

467 Seattle Seahawks -3 (45)

468 Carolina Panthers +3

463 Cincinnati Bengals +3 (41.5)

464 Chicago Bears -3

465 Miami Dolphins PK (41)

466 Cleveland Browns PK

469 Minnesota Vikings +4.5 (46.5)

470 Detroit Lions -4.5

471 Oakland Raiders +10 (47)

472 Indianapolis Colts -10

475 Green Bay Packers +4.5 (48.5)

476 San Francisco 49ers -4.5

473 Arizona Cardinals +4.5 (40.5)

474 St. Louis Rams -4.5

477 New York Giants +3 (48.5)

478 Dallas Cowboys -3

479 Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (51)

480 Washington Redskins -3.5

481 Houston Texans -3 (44)

482 San Diego Chargers +3