Suicide League Picks

[beanfigger]

I don't know how many of you all play in a suicide league, but I thought it might be interesting to discuss your picks for each week here. For those who don't know, in a suicide league you pick one team each week that you think will win. If they win, you move onto the next week; if they lose, you're out. The last man standing wins. You also can only pick each NFL team once throughout the season, so you can't just pick the Pats every time they play an AFC East bum and get six free weeks.

Anyway, week one is tough this year. I try to avoid road teams and division matchups if I can, but that leaves me with few choices this week when you look at the schedule. Indy at home against Oak is the popular pick, as is Pitt at home vs Ten. I'm not as sure as others for those two. I like to get a couple sneaky picks early if I can to save the better teams for later even though that's a bit more risky. I'm thinking StL at home vs Ari or Det at home vs Min even though those are both divisional matchups. Anyone else playing in one of these this year?

[gabefergy]

I like Indy or KC

[beanfigger]

I like Indy or KC

I like KC, too. If they were at home, it would be a slam dunk pick for me.

[PuRock]

I like KC, too. If they were at home, it would be a slam dunk pick for me.

 

Yea, I wouldn't trust KC on the road in Jacksonville.  We got surprised ourselves going into Jacksonville.  I think that's being too cute and daring.  Week 1 can be a wildcard.  

 

Indy at home against Oakland is the surest bet for week 1.  Plus there probably isn't another game during the season you'd feel good about the Colts. 

[Mt. Crushmore]

Definitely Indy for me.

[beanfigger]

I think Indy will win, too, but I've been talking all offseason about how they're over-hyped.  I wouldn't be surprised if they played well under expectations this season.

 

 

 

 

 

Then again, it is the Raiders.

[PuRock]

I think Indy will win, too, but I've been talking all offseason about how they're over-hyped.  I wouldn't be surprised if they played well under expectations this season.

 

 

 

 

 

Then again, it is the Raiders.

 

Exactly, they may be overhpyed but they're playing the Raiders.  If you think they are over hyped this is probably the only game you could use them in anyways.  

[flaccopoe]

TB @ NYJ

[beanfigger]

TB @ NYJ

 

My money is going nowhere near that garbage.  It might end up being a 3-2 final score or a 41-38 final.  Either way, I can't sanely bet on either of those squads at the moment.

[flaccopoe]

My money is going nowhere near that garbage.  It might end up being a 3-2 final score or a 41-38 final.  Either way, I can't sanely bet on either of those squads at the moment.

 

It's a money league?  I would just do it for faeces and giggles.

[beanfigger]

It's a money league? I would just do it for faeces and giggles.

Only $10, but there are 33 people in it. So, I feel like I'm playing for a lot more because I can increase my buy-in by over 300%.

[Moderator 3]

Reminder: no recruiting for or posting links to money leagues. Only leagues that are totally free and open to all members can posted in these forums.

[beanfigger]

Reminder: no recruiting for or posting links to money leagues. Only leagues that are totally free and open to all members can posted in these forums.

 

No recruiting.  This is my home game with Philly friends.  It isn't even online or available to join.  I was just noting that there was a monetary effect on my decision making.  I'm sorry if I stepped out of bounds.

[beanfigger]

Phew!  I dodged a bullet there.  I went with St Louis.  Oak and Buf were close to cutting down my league from 33 to 3, with many thanks to Ten and NYJ for actually delivering huge knockout blows.  Week One is always the toughest and the biggest wave of eliminations.  The survivors will now battle for weeks with only one or two per week falling.  I might go out on a limb and use up my Ravens pick next week, but I still need to think about it for a few days.

[beanfigger]

This is a tough week.  I like to go with a 1-0 team at home against an 0-1 team if I can.  That narrows it down to Chicago at home against Minnesota or Philadelphia at home against San Diego.  Other possibilities are Baltimore at home for the Browns or Cincinnati at home for Pittsburgh, but those are a little close to home.  New England against the Jets will be a popular pick, but they are dealing with a lot of injuries.  Something about the Mannings playing each other makes me weary of that matchup.  One could always go off the wall and risk something like Oakland at home against the Jaguars, but who could possibly bet on the Raiders for anything?

[flaccopoe]

This is a tough week.  I like to go with a 1-0 team at home against an 0-1 team if I can.  That narrows it down to Chicago at home against Minnesota or Philadelphia at home against San Diego.  Other possibilities are Baltimore at home for the Browns or Cincinnati at home for Pittsburgh, but those are a little close to home.  New England against the Jets will be a popular pick, but they are dealing with a lot of injuries.  Something about the Mannings playing each other makes me weary of that matchup.  One could always go off the wall and risk something like Oakland at home against the Jaguars, but who could possibly bet on the Raiders for anything?

 

Go with MIN @ CHI.  CHI's D will humiliate Ponder and keep AP from running away with the game.

[beanfigger]

Go with MIN @ CHI.  CHI's D will humiliate Ponder and keep AP from running away with the game.

 

Yeah.  I am 90% going with Chicago.  Anything can happen in division games, but I think the Bears are a much better team than the Vikings.

[gabefergy]

I think I might go with GB at home vs Was

[beanfigger]

I think I might go with GB at home vs Was

 

That's kind of safe, although GB's defense couldn't do anything against Kaep.  The Packers have to be huge favorites, but I can see it being a shootout.

[gabefergy]

That's kind of safe, although GB's defense couldn't do anything against Kaep. The Packers have to be huge favorites, but I can see it being a shootout.

GB has a pretty tough schedule so I'm not sure how many games I would be real comfortable with. I think they will destroy the skins tho.

[beanfigger]

GB has a pretty tough schedule so I'm not sure how many games I would be real comfortable with. I think they will destroy the skins tho.

 

That is certainly one way to think about it strategically.  Odds are, there are at least 25 teams I won't ever have to use in order to win.  If it does go longer, I'd love to have GB in my pocket to use in say Week 12 at home against the Vikings.  Who knows how things will work out?  Minnesota could be like 1-10 by then.  The Packers have a habit of starting seasons slow, excluding their 15-1 season, of course.

[Inqui]

If you feel like a gambler then the Eagles could be an interesting one.

[theblackdog]

My pick for Indy last week was good.  I'm thinking of picking New Orleans this week, any thoughts?

[beanfigger]

My pick for Indy last week was good. I'm thinking of picking New Orleans this week, any thoughts?

I think they'll win. Should be good. It would be a lock if they were at home, I think. Didn't they lose to a bad Buc team a couple years ago when they otherwise had a great season? Anyway, I think you're proabably good there this time.

[beanfigger]

So many tight finishes for the teams that were popular picks this week.  Chicago barely kept me alive.

[theblackdog]

So many tight finishes for the teams that were popular picks this week.  Chicago barely kept me alive.

 No kidding! I was freaking out at the end of the NO game and then somehow they managed to keep me alive.

 

This week I'm thinking of going with Minnesota, still don't want to burn a Denver, Seattle, or Baltimore pick yet.

[beanfigger]

 No kidding! I was freaking out at the end of the NO game and then somehow they managed to keep me alive.

 

This week I'm thinking of going with Minnesota, still don't want to burn a Denver, Seattle, or Baltimore pick yet.

 

I haven't really looked into the schedule for next week, yet, but I'm no longer concerned with saving teams in my league.  The first two weeks were unkind, and now there's only 3 left.  Amazing.

[flaccopoe]

So many tight finishes for the teams that were popular picks this week.  Chicago barely kept me alive.

 

None of the upsets surprised me.  KC, MIA and AZ have very good Ds.

[beanfigger]

After looking at it, there is a very clear and obvious choice this week.  Sure, you have a great chance of surviving with NE or Den this week, but this is one of those weeks where you shouldn't over think things.  Seattle at home against Jacksonville is as close to a slam dunk, sure thing as you will find in the NFL these days.  Of course some will bring up big upsets over the years to use as examples of why nothing is a sure thing in this league, but c'mon.  Will Seattle really end their home winning streak this week against the Jaguars?  There is no one who has watched a football game that would pick Jacksonville.  This is like a 1 v 16 matchup in March Madness.  What would you be saving Seattle for?  Is there possibly a better time to use them than now?  Most leagues will have a high percentage of members choose this game, and therefore, most members of each league will get a free pass to next week.  Pick this game and hope the one or two members of your league who over think it get eliminated with another pick.

[PuRock]

After looking at it, there is a very clear and obvious choice this week.  Sure, you have a great chance of surviving with NE or Den this week, but this is one of those weeks where you shouldn't over think things.  Seattle at home against Jacksonville is as close to a slam dunk, sure thing as you will find in the NFL these days.  Of course some will bring up big upsets over the years to use as examples of why nothing is a sure thing in this league, but c'mon.  Will Seattle really end their home winning streak this week against the Jaguars?  There is no one who has watched a football game that would pick Jacksonville.  This is like a 1 v 16 matchup in March Madness.  What would you be saving Seattle for?  Is there possibly a better time to use them than now?  Most leagues will have a high percentage of members choose this game, and therefore, most members of each league will get a free pass to next week.  Pick this game and hope the one or two members of your league who over think it get eliminated with another pick.

 

Yes, I've learned from past experiences.  Do not save teams for down the road, use the sure picks (closet to)  when they present themselves. Do not overthink things and play with fire.   You'll have more time down the road to deal with tougher decisions if you make it that far.