PFF's take on the Ravens and advanced statistics

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

Don't think you get how that stat works. Since he is still running routes while not being targeted that would bring his rate down. This is why you can't use advanced stats for everything because if you don't know what it skews then it is all for naught. You don't understand that those guys were probably targeted more often on a higer percentage of routes because they play with no one at time while Avant is playing with a number of playmakers who are also running their routes while he is just a decoy to free them up deep.

Here bro. This is a percentage stat that will help you see what I am talking about. Look where Kerley is on this list and look at Avant. Also look at the company Avant keeps.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/18/sig-stats-first-down-touchdown-conversions-wrs/

No "bro" I get how the stat works. Your first comment said avant didn't have as many chances as other guys in his role. Well he did.

Are you trying to tell me that the guy who has such sure hands and is an excellent route runner was purposely not targeted on a vast majority of plays and was simply a decoy?

Your stats don't say why he wasn't targeted. So you can't assume it's bc he was always a decoy.

It's just as reasonable he wasn't open. He was their #2 target for a good portion of the year and you're telling me they chose not to involve him with touches? That's ridiculous.

And look at go the top few guys are on this list. Not who I'd consider top guys.

PS- read the article. The author even mentions that this analysis is a STEP BACK from that which I provided.

Part of a receivers job is getting open to be targeted. Lookin at just snaps they were targeted leaves analysis out that is very important in judging the value of a receiver.

[5aiah]

No "bro" I get how the stat works. Your first comment said avant didn't have as many chances as other guys in his role. Well he did.

Are you trying to tell me that the guy who has such sure hands and is an excellent route runner was purposely not targeted on a vast majority of plays and was simply a decoy?

Your stats don't say why he wasn't targeted. So you can't assume it's bc he was always a decoy.

It's just as reasonable he wasn't open. He was their #2 target for a good portion of the year and you're telling me they chose not to involve him with touches? That's ridiculous.

DeSean was the number 2 until he went down(which was only for 2 games iirc). Avant did his best work in the slot and he delivered. His first down per target percentage was pretty high and pretty much tells the story.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/18/sig-stats-first-down-touchdown-conversions-wrs/

 

The one you used was biased toward those who were targeted more when on the field. This is what i mean by these stats aren't everything and you have to know the pros and cons of each one when using it. You obviously don't get the difference between the two. 43.66%(Avant) vs 35.23%(Kerley). The stat you used made it seem like Kerley was better, when in fact he just got more targets per route run because of the different offenses. You need to know the stats before you use them bro. 

[Ravenslifer]

I regularly browse PFF and have been waiting for them to do their "32 Teams in 32 Days" for Baltimore. They do an excellent job at highlighting exactly what the focusing points are for us going forward in terms of predicting what we can do this upcoming year. I also wanted to get others opinions on advanced statistics as I will be buying a subscription and could keep a thread going throughout the season if people are interested. Here is their article,it is very objective and the stats they use really tell the story. What are your guys favorite advanced stats?

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/07/31/32-teams-in-32-days-baltimore-ravens-2/

 

Honestly I'm not a fan of that site, because it's pretty obvious to me that they let personal bias bleed through while claiming to be the most unbiased source of information out there (I could elaborate, but it would probably turn into a novel with 5 chapters devoted to why Khaled Elsayed hates Joe).

[beasy2487]

Honestly I'm not a fan of that site, because it's pretty obvious to me that they let personal bias bleed through while claiming to be the most unbiased source of information out there (I could elaborate, but it would probably turn into a novel with 5 chapters devoted to why Khaled Elsayed hates Joe).

 

Careful, the sky might open up and smite you for besmirching the PFF commandments.  :bitenails:  :bitenails:  :bitenails:

[beanfigger]

DeSean was the number 2 until he went down(which was only for 2 games iirc). Avant did his best work in the slot and he delivered. His first down per target percentage was pretty high and pretty much tells the story.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/18/sig-stats-first-down-touchdown-conversions-wrs/

 

The one you used was biased toward those who were targeted more when on the field. This is what i mean by these stats aren't everything and you have to know the pros and cons of each one when using it. You obviously don't get the difference between the two. 43.66%(Avant) vs 35.23%(Kerley). The stat you used made it seem like Kerley was better, when in fact he just got more targets per route run because of the different offenses. You need to know the stats before you use them bro. 

 

This whole thing is what I'm talking about.  It isn't that people don't understand the stats.  It's just that there are stats supporting both sides of the argument.  Statistics are a form of lies because they are used to sway people into believing something that isn't true.  It's all about opinions.  Some people think certain stats are more important than others, and that's why they have a different opinion on players and teams and how they compare to other players and teams.  You can't prove Avant is an above average receiver, but it's fine that you believe he is.  I think he isn't, but I can't prove it because no stats tell the whole story.  I just know Avant let the Eagles down last year.  He wasn't what they expected from someone who was considered above average.  Don't blame the system or the QB for everything.  He didn't do his part, either.  It's not like he was Larry Fitzgerald without a team.  He was part of the disaster that was last season in Philly.

[5aiah]

This whole thing is what I'm talking about.  It isn't that people don't understand the stats.  It's just that there are stats supporting both sides of the argument.  Statistics are a form of lies because they are used to sway people into believing something that isn't true.  It's all about opinions.  Some people think certain stats are more important than others, and that's why they have a different opinion on players and teams and how they compare to other players and teams.  You can't prove Avant is an above average receiver, but it's fine that you believe he is.  I think he isn't, but I can't prove it because no stats tell the whole story.  I just know Avant let the Eagles down last year.  He wasn't what they expected from someone who was considered above average.  Don't blame the system or the QB for everything.  He didn't do his part, either.  It's not like he was Larry Fitzgerald without a team.  He was part of the disaster that was last season in Philly.

We agree a disaster it was. I'm not saying people don't understand the stats. I just pointed out that he used the stat without knowing what it measured and what it didn't. How it could be skewed and such, that is what i pointed out. That is the problem with using them,any stat, is that you have to know what they are saying and not just use it to make a point or it becomes a lie. That goes for all stats. As for Avant, the Eagles fans are tough and they expect alot(they are known for this). They just expected him to step up and be more than a above average slot receiver and he failed, along with the collective team. Doesn't change the fact that he is above average and has little to do with stats as much as it is knowing slot receivers in the NFL and how they stack up.

[beanfigger]

We agree a disaster it was. I'm not saying people don't understand the stats. I just pointed out that he used the stat without knowing what it measured and what it didn't. How it could be skewed and such, that is what i pointed out. That is the problem with using them,any stat, is that you have to know what they are saying and not just use it to make a point or it becomes a lie. That goes for all stats. As for Avant, the Eagles fans are tough and they expect alot(they are known for this). They just expected him to step up and be more than a above average slot receiver and he failed, along with the collective team. Doesn't change the fact that he is above average and has little to do with stats as much as it is knowing slot receivers in the NFL and how they stack up.

 

I still have to disagree that it is a "fact" that he is above average.  That's still an opinion, and not one that can be proven.

[arnie_uk]

He's worse than truth

[Ravenslifer]

Here's the bottom line to me about why stats can never tell you the whole story: how do you define what impact the first 10 plays of the game will have on the last 10 using stats?

What I mean is, suppose we're still running the Cam-fense. There are very few formations, no personnel changes, almost exclusively a 2 WR, 1 TE set, and that happens say 60 percent of the time. The vast majority of the time we run to the same side, every time. So after no second half adjustments, the defense has keyed in on what we do, who's running the plays, and how to defend them. Now take a team that runs a varied offense. How do you adjust to a team that uses 2 wide 25 percent, 3 wide 25 percent, 4 wide 25 percent, 5 wide 25 percent? How can you adjust if at first you're facing 2 6 foot speedster receivers, then all of a sudden you see one 6'3" receiver and 2 big tight ends come out? Then the next series one speedster comes back in? As soon as you get comfortable with one formation, the offense changes it up, so the defense is never sure of what they're doing. So it makes sense to me that other teams had a much easier time defending the Cam-fense scheme-wise than the majority of other offenses being run. These "advanced stats" never take into account that what a team has done the last 15 minutes has a major impact in how successful they are in what they do the next 15. If you do the same 3 things over and over and over again, IDK how bad the other defense is, eventually they will key in on it and take what you do away.

Advanced stats never take into account that throwing a ball 30 yards down the field is much harder to complete than a 5 yard pass, so of course if your offense is predicated on the deep ball, your quarterback will have a much lower completion percentage. In their view, every pass, every receiver, every quarterback, every defense is somehow evaluated on the same scale, and that just can't be done. How do you compare a drop-back passer to a guy who can run and throw? Defenses respect each guy differently, therefore they looks they give will be different. That's my biggest problem - they claim these stats are non-biased, but the fact that they don't take physical traits, football skills (i.e. Calvin Johnson has MUCH better hands than, say, Mark Clayton), schemes and scheme adjustments into account, to me, makes them more biased than simple things like completion percentage.

[5aiah]

Here is the summary on our preseason game. I found it fitting that Tyrod got the game ball. 

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/08/10/refo-ravens-buccaneers-preseason-week-2/

[PolishRifle]

Here is the summary on our preseason game. I found it fitting that Tyrod got the game ball. 

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/08/10/refo-ravens-buccaneers-preseason-week-2/

TT played well and I will feel more comfortable, if Joe goes down and Taylor has to fill in, but they call Taylor a "change-of-pace QB", which is a moronic idea. You have one QB, who gives your offense consistency and personality and you stick with it. I don't care how much PFF doesn't like Flaccos conventional passing game, 2 QBs getting first team snaps no matter how much or how little is one too many.

[5aiah]

TT played well and I will feel more comfortable, if Joe goes down and Taylor has to fill in, but they call Taylor a "change-of-pace QB", which is a moronic idea. You have one QB, who gives your offense consistency and personality and you stick with it. I don't care how much PFF doesn't like Flaccos conventional passing game, 2 QBs getting first team snaps no matter how much or how little is one too many.

I really don't think they were saying anything about Flacco's skill with the "change of pace" bit just that Tyrod fits the bill because he can actually throw and run the option and have the defense worrying about both. Pretty sure that even if TT was on the broncos and he did the same for them in a preseason game, they would say the same thing even with Peyton Manning as the QB. Also at the same time the Ravens are a team that gets creative on Offense,Defense, and special teams. I doubt they ever use him as a "change of pace" but knowing the Ravens they have thought it through. We can do anything.

[PolishRifle]

I really don't think they were saying anything about Flacco's skill with the "change of pace" bit just that Tyrod fits the bill because he can actually throw and run the option and have the defense worrying about both. Pretty sure that even if TT was on the broncos and he did the same for them in a preseason game, they would say the same thing even with Peyton Manning as the QB. Also at the same time the Ravens are a team that gets creative on Offense,Defense, and special teams. I doubt they ever use him as a "change of pace" but knowing the Ravens they have thought it through. We can do anything.

My post wasn't a defense of Flaccos skill, but a statement, that I don't like getting more QBs involved, than the starter. TT is a solid backup and I like that he is becoming a better passer, so I stay cautiously optimistic and look forward to his performance in the next couple of pre-season games. Let's not forget, that he was pretty bad last pre-season and many were demanding for Taylor to be replaced by Painter (not without reason, btw).

I hope he performs well in week 4.

[arnie_uk]

Here is the summary on our preseason game. I found it fitting that Tyrod got the game ball. 
 
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/08/10/refo-ravens-buccaneers-preseason-week-2/

can you form your own opinions or do you do that after reading pff?

[5aiah]

can you form your own opinions or do you do that after reading pff?

Sure I form my own on teams that I watch in depth. Ravens, Bucs,Rams, but for teams that I don't watch all-22 on, I read on them here. I use PFF like other people use ESPN.NFL.com,and other sites. Do you not think TT deserved it? He was clearly the best performer that game. Also would add that PFF only existed since 2008, I have been a fan since 99. So......

 

Edit: Add the Packers in there ^_^ .

[arnie_uk]

No I think Adrian Hamilton deserved it tbh. He was constantly in the qbs face

[5aiah]

No I think Adrian Hamilton deserved it tbh. He was constantly in the qbs face

Adrian over Tyrod? Cool, agree to disagree. I think both of them along with LaQuan and Daryl are legitimate game ball guys.

[5aiah]

Outside look at the Ravens game yesterday.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/08/16/refo-falcons-at-ravens-preseason-week-2/