Week 13 Wrap-up

[Ravnet]

-Washington lost to New York. Although the score was close for a while, the Redskins' offense is completely stagnant and we should be able to capitalize on a weak Clinton Portis and a crumbling Washington offense.

-Buffalo lost to San Francisco. The Bills are now 6-6 and would have to win out to even be in the picture; I think it's safe to say that they're done.

-Miami beat St. Louis and moved to 7-5. Although they're only one game back in the standings, the Ravens beat them head to head, so if Baltimore goes just 2-2, Miami would need to go 4-0 to make it in. Miami still has a shot, but they'd basically need to win out or have the Ravens go 1-3 to realistically make it in.

-The Jets lost to Denver. This is not a good thing as no one will be pushing Tennessee for the #1 seed, meaning that the Titans may rest their guys in week 16, at home, against Pittsburgh.

-The Steelers beat the Patriots. Decisively. The win in New England puts the Steelers at 9-3 overall and 8-1 in conference. This week was crucial for the Ravens as we had the chance to tie Pittsburgh and possibly pull ahead in the weeks to come. If Pittsburgh can beat Tennessee later in the season, who I fear will play some backups, they will hold the ultimate tiebreaker over us assuming that we split the head to head and both lose to Dallas. This means that if Pittsburgh is able to just go 2-2 in their remaining games, we'll need to go 4-0 to win the division. Yeah.

Although I'm not giving up, I'm essentially banking on the fact that we're destined for the sixth seed. The wild card isn't very competitive outside of the Ravens and the Patriots. The Colts should be able to wrap up the fifth slot as they're playing well and have an easy schedule.

Unfortunately, the Patriots have an obnoxiously pathetic schedule as well.

Patriots

Week 14: New England @ Seattle
Week 15: New England @ Oakland
Week 16: New England vs. Arizona
Week 17: New England @ Buffalo

Ravens

Week 14: Baltimore vs. Washington
Week 15: Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
Week 16: Baltimore @ Dallas
Week 17: Baltimore vs. Jacksonville

The Patriots are a game behind, and although they have easier games coming up, the tiebreaker still favors us. The Patriots are currently 5-5 in conference and will either move to 8-5 (finishing 3-0 in conference) or 7-6 (finishing 2-1 in conference). The Ravens sit at 7-3 and may move to either 9-3 (finishing 2-0 in conference) or 8-4 (finishing 1-1 in conference). I see the patriots going 3-1 the rest of the way, making them 10-6 at seasons end. On the other hand, I envision Baltimore wrapping up the year with a 2-2 run, also sitting at 10-6. As I outlined above, we hold the tiebreaker over the Pats as long as we win one of the Pittsburgh/Jacksonville games.

[bossman419]

ive got a feeling that the media will get to see thier darlings in the wildcard game... pats vs. colts.

[Ravnet]

[quote name='bossman419' post='96578' date='Nov 30 2008, 08:44 PM']ive got a feeling that the media will get to see thier darlings in the wildcard game... pats vs. colts.[/quote]

If we go 2-2, beating just Jacksonville and one of Washington/Dallas/Pittsburgh, New England would need to go 4-0.

[FerrariFan87]

[quote name='Ravnet' post='96579' date='Nov 30 2008, 08:45 PM']If we go 2-2, beating just Jacksonville and one of Washington/Dallas/Pittsburgh, New England would need to go 4-0.[/quote]

3 of our final 4 are at home, don't underestimate the 12th man!

[bossman419]

[quote name='Ravnet' post='96579' date='Nov 30 2008, 08:45 PM']New England would need to go 4-0.[/quote]
with that sorry excuse for a schedule its a real possibility

[H8R]

I know I sure as hell don't want to see the Colts in a playoff game. They always have our number. I hope they lose that spot to NE.We need to win the Division IMO to get some home games!

[Ravnet]

[quote name='bossman419' post='96582' date='Nov 30 2008, 08:48 PM']with that sorry excuse for a schedule its a real possibility[/quote]

Unfortunately it is, but it'd be quite a feat with Cassel at the helm.

[PuRock]

[quote name='Ravnet' post='96559' date='Nov 30 2008, 07:51 PM']-Washington lost to New York. Although the score was close for a while, the Redskins' offense is completely stagnant and we should be able to capitalize on a weak Clinton Portis and crumbling Washington offense.[/quote]

I watched the whole Redskins game too. And They are very very beatable. Take away their run game, take away their game. We just need to stop Clinton Portis which I think we can do.

But then again we did look pathetic against the Giants too.

[FerrariFan87]

Just wondering, but shouldn't this topic be under "Other NFL Teams" and not "Ravens Talk?"

[Ravnet]

[quote name='FerrariFan87' post='96592' date='Nov 30 2008, 09:04 PM']Just wondering, but shouldn't this topic be under "Other NFL Teams" and not "Ravens Talk?"[/quote]

The point of the post was to discuss other games this week and how they affect the Ravens. If it belongs in the other forum, however, I'd like for a mod to move it.

[theFRANCHISE]

I think the most improbable (but still possible) scenario that everyone (including myself) is overlooking is if the Ravens were to run the table, and the Steelers drop the head-to-head matchup in two weeks but win the rest of their games.

In theory, with identical 12-4 records, the Ravens would win the tiebreaker (and the division), since it would come down to common opponents, where the Steelers dropped a game to the Eagles, whom the Ravens beat.

But, again, that's a highly improbable scenario. But still a slim possibility.

Ehhh...honestly, I'm just looking for something to hold onto until Sunday's game against the Redskins, since the Patriots were SO disappointing today...

[RavensIQ]

[quote name='Ravnet' post='96559' date='Nov 30 2008, 07:51 PM']-The Steelers beat the Patriots. Decisively. The win in New England puts the Steelers at 9-3 overall and 8-1 in conference. This week was crucial for the Ravens as we had the chance to tie Pittsburgh and possibly pull ahead in the weeks to come. If Pittsburgh can beat Tennessee later in the season, who I fear will play some backups, they will hold the ultimate tiebreaker over us assuming that we split the head to head and both lose to Dallas. This means that if Pittsburgh is able to just go 2-2 in their remaining games, we'll need to go 4-0 to win the division. Yeah.

Although I'm not giving up, I'm essentially banking on the fact that we're destined for the sixth seed. The wild card isn't very competitive outside of the Ravens and the Patriots. The Colts should be able to wrap up the fifth slot as they're playing well and have an easy schedule.[/quote]

I don't necessarily agree with you 100% here. The Ravens can go 3 out of 4 and still win the division as long as we beat Pittsburgh. The Conference Record Tie Breaking Procedure is the 4th option in deciding the division.

1.) Comes down to head 2 head records. We have to beat the Steelers to move on to the next procedure.

2.) Then it comes down to Division record. We are 4-1 with only 1 divisional game left. The Steelers are 4-0, they still have 2 Divisional games left, and they have to face us. So the odds are against them.

3.) Then it comes down to head to head winning % against common teams (Titans, Colts, Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Redskins, Jaguars, Texans) So far we are 40% against common teams the Steelers are 50%. They would have to beat both the Cowboys and the Titans in order to win this tie breaker. We only have to win 2 of our next 3 to go to the next procedure (Jags, Skins, Boys) Our match ups are a lot more favorable. The odds are against Pittsburgh.

4.) Winning % against conference teams. They are 8-1 now with 3 of their next 4 games being within the conference. We are 7-3 now and only have 2 conference games remaining one of which is the Steelers. If we get to this Tie Breaker it means we have already beaten the Steelers on Dec. 14th and our record moves to 8-3 which means they would have to beat both the Titans and the Browns in order to win this Tie Breaker. Odds are against them.

5.) Who ever has the stronger victorys. The combined winning % of the teams we beat. As long as the Dolphins, Eagles, and Raiders keep winning we should be able to squeak out a win here.

6.) Strength of schedule. As of right now the strength of our schedule is .48 the strength of the Steeler's schedule is .43 we win this tie breaker bcuz Pittsburgh's remaining games are against teams we will or have already faced. So if it gets to this point we win the division. If for some reason I'm mistaken about the Strength of Schedule %'s and for some reason they are tied then it moves on to

7.) Points scored and points allowed against conference teams. From here on it gets really technical.

Basically, the Steelers would have to beat us and win at least 3 of their next 4 in order to clinch the division.

The Ravens only need to beat the Steelers and at least match Pittsburgh win loss record from here on out to have a shot at the division. Given the remaining games between both teams we have the better odds.

Scenarios for us to out right win the Division

1. Ravens finish 4-0 and the Steelers finish 2-2 or worse

2. Ravens finish 3-1 and the Steelers finish 1-3 or worse

3. Ravens finish 2-2 and the Steelers finish 0-4


[u]Raven's next 4[/u]
-Skins (at home)
-Steelers (at home)
-Boys (at dallas)
-Jags (at home)

[u]Steeler's next 4[/u]
-Boys (at pittsburgh)
-Ravens (away)
-Titans (away)
-Browns (at pittsburgh)

Chances are who ever wins the AFC north wins the #2 seed and the bye week. The Jet's loss today and The Patriots's loss today sets the AFC East pretty far back in terms of favorable seeding position.

[PuRock]

[quote name='theFRANCHISE' post='96619' date='Nov 30 2008, 10:13 PM']I think the most improbable (but still possible) scenario that everyone (including myself) is overlooking is if the Ravens were to run the table, and the Steelers drop the head-to-head matchup in two weeks but win the rest of their games.

In theory, with identical 12-4 records, the Ravens would win the tiebreaker (and the division), since it would come down to common opponents, where the Steelers dropped a game to the Eagles, whom the Ravens beat.

But, again, that's a highly improbable scenario. But still a slim possibility.

Ehhh...honestly, I'm just looking for something to hold onto until Sunday's game against the Redskins, since the Patriots were SO disappointing today...[/quote]

Actually in this case scenario, the Steelers would have the tie-breaker. Because if the Ravens and Steelers end up with identical records at 12-4. That would mean the Steelers would have beaten the Titans. Which would be a wash with our Eagles win. So the tie-breaker would come down to conference record. Which the Steelers would win the tie-breaker. Their conference record would be 10-2. While ours would be 9-3.

[theFRANCHISE]

[quote name='PuRock' post='96638' date='Nov 30 2008, 11:07 PM']Actually in this case scenario, the Steelers would have the tie-breaker. Because if the Ravens and Steelers end up with identical records at 12-4. That would mean the Steelers would have beaten the Titans. Which would be a wash with our Eagles win. So the tie-breaker would come down to conference record. Which the Steelers would win the tie-breaker. Their conference record would be 10-2. While ours would be 9-3.[/quote]

Ohhh damn, I forgot the Titans game.

Good catch. I retract my previous statement.