Looking Ahead: '14 & '15 Cap Space

[GrimCoconut]

2014 Salary Cap: 114.032M – 123M (2013 cap) = 8.968M free.

Under Contract: (39 players) Suggs, Ngata, Yanda, Flacco, Rice, Webb, J. McClain, Koch, McKinnie, Dumervil, J. Smith, Canty, Huff, Upshaw, Spears, T. Smith, D. Reed, Osemele, Cox, Reid, Doss, Pierce, Gradkowski, C. Brown, McPhee, Taylor, C. Thompson, Jackson, Streeter, Tyson, D. Thompson, Juszczyk, Shipley, Tucker, Wagner, Lewis-Moore, Jensen, Mellette, Anthony, Furstenburg

Miscellaneous: (14 players) Levine, O. Brown, Rainey, Simon, A. Brown, Elam, B. Williams, Devey, Copeland, Trawick, Gaines, Sheppard, Pericak, Steelman, M. Williams, Lee, Walker, Carter.

RFA: (5 players) L. Williams, McClellan, Allen, McAdoo, Bynes

ERFA: (10 players) Mims, Hall, Stephens, Berry, Silvestro, Bryant, Cornell, A. McClain, Carr, Hamilton

UFA: (14 players) Oher, J. Jones, Leach, Graham, A. Jones, Pitta, Dickson, R. McClain, Cody, Harewood, Adkins, Ihedigbo, Johnson, Hanie

 

2015 Salary Cap: 84.336M – 123M (2013 cap) = 38.66M free.

Under Contract: (27 players) Ngata, Yanda, Flacco, Rice, Webb, Koch, Dumervil, Canty, Huff, Upshaw, Osemele, Pierce, Gradkowski, C. Thompson, Jackson, Streeter, Tyson, D. Thompson, Juszczyk, Shipley, Tucker, Wagner, Lewis-Moore, Jensen, Mellette, Anthony, Furstenburg

Miscellaneous: (14 players) Levine, O. Brown, Rainey, Simon, A. Brown, Elam, B. Williams, Devey, Copeland, Trawick, Gaines, Sheppard, Pericak, Steelman, M. Williams, Lee, Walker, Carter.

RFA: (3 players) Tucker, Shipley, D. Thompson

UFA: (13 players) Suggs, J. McClain, McKinnie, J Smith, T. Smith, D. Reed, Spears, Cox, Reid, Doss, C. Brown, McPhee, Taylor

 

I can’t get into ERFAs, but you get the idea. These figures are clearly not including cap carryover, so there could very well be more cap space available. These figures also don’t account for the four rookies currently unsigned, as well as the signed UDFAs whose cap figures Spotrac does not have available. In 2 years, we will potentially be losing around 27 players from our team—27 players. That’s a considerable amount of talent. Some very big and important players are on those lists, too.

 

Another interesting trend I have noticed is that WR, CB, DE/OLB are all beginning to be paid more or the same as elite left tackles. Usually, in most cases, the elite LTs are making less than the best cornerbacks, pass rushers, wide receivers, etc. That means that LT is no longer the second-highest paid position next to QB.

 

Anyway, I compiled this list because I always see people say “Let’s extend this guy! Let’s re-sign all of our free agents! Let's sign this free agent!!!” blah, blah. I only did this as a way of showing what our situation looks like in the future, so you can see exactly what kind of cap space we truly have. Granted, even though we’ll have 38M in 2015, it’s not that much, because we would have potentially lost 27 players from our current team.

 

Keep in mind that in 2015 we may have two HUGE free agents in Torrey Smith & Jimmy Smith. Those two positions are some of the highest paid positions in the entire NFL after QB, and I doubt they go down in terms of pay grade. Also recognize that the leech Drew Rosenhaus represents BOTH Jimmy & Torrey Smith and we may have ourselves a problem. We also have some significant RFAs coming due in 2015 as well, the most significant being Justin Tucker. So while we may have 38M right now, that could dwindle very, very fast. 

[rmw10]

We have to re-sign Torrey.  There's no way we can let him go.  That's my only comment for now until I look at this more in depth later.

[GrimCoconut]

We have to re-sign Torrey.  There's no way we can let him go.  That's my only comment for now until I look at this more in depth later.

I'm in the middle of compiling more lists, but here's a snapshot of the top-paid wide receivers in the NFL:

 

 

Average Top-5 WR pay:

Calvin Johnson: 18.182M

Larry Fitzgerald: 14.125M

Mike Wallace: 12M

Dwayne Bowe: 11.2M

Percy Harvin: 11.166M

As you can see, even injuries don’t drop the value of WR (Harvin). WR is becoming one of the highest paid positions in the NFL. Its average salary has already eclipsed the average left tackle salary. That’s significant. 

 

It's going to be a challenge to pay Torrey Smith. We might have to pay him 13M/year. I'm not even joking around. Even if I remove Fitz & Megatron, you have V-Jax at 11M, Hester at 10.2M, Andre Johnson at 9.6M, DeSean Jackson at 9.4M, & Holmes at 9M. At the rate that wide receivers' salaries are increasing, and with Torrey Smith's character & ethics, he might command a nice salary when he is due. 

 

I don't disagree. Smith absolutely needs to be re-signed. It's just we're going to need to save some money for this. 

 

My next post is going to compare the dropping price of LT compared to the rest of the positions. I think it may be wiser to draft WRs & CBs earlier than before. This way, we can go after LTs in free agency, where the price would be less than wide receivers. 

[Yatagarasu]

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/cap-hit/2014/

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/cap-hit/2015/

 

Ozzie is building this team well for the present and future. We have a good mix of young players and veterans.

 

If Ozzie continues his philsophy of "Right Player at Right Price," then we should be fine. I feel that winning the Super Bowl really helped us in the free agency market because a lot of veterans are willing to take pay cuts to stay with a winning team. Michael Huff took a way below average contract for a player of his production. 

[GrimCoconut]

Average Top-5 T pay:

Jason Peters: 10.109M

Joe Thomas: 10.062M

Trent Williams: 10M

Ryan Clady: 9.828M (FT)

Brandon Albert: 9.828M (FT)

D’Brickashaw Ferguson: 9.2M

Jake Long: 8.5M

As you can see, I included some more guys in here, because Clady & Albert are on the tag. I wanted to give a true idea of what left tackles are paid. I don’t think they are as valuable as they once were in terms of pay. It has gone down considerably. To further elaborate this point, I will address guard pay.

 

Average Top-5 G pay:

Carl Nicks: 9.5M

Logan Mankins: 8.5M

Jahri Evans: 8.1M

Andy Levitre: 7.8M

David Joseph: 7.5M

Obviously the guards don’t make as much as tackles, but their salary isn’t that far as one would think. The highest paid T is only 609K more than the highest paid G. That’s honestly negligible. The lowest paid T is paid a million dollars more than the lowest paid G (obviously out of these top-5 players).

 

Now, Clady & Albert will help change things. You’ll get a true sense of value of these tackles, but I don’t think it will be that much more. It looks like the price of left tackles may very well be dropping, at least to reasonable range, whereas other positions’ prices are drastically climbing, such as WR (already exampled) and cornerback. Let’s look at cornerback, which is another position where we may soon find ourselves at a crossroad.

 

Average Top-5 CB pay:

Darrelle Revis: 16M

Champ Bailey: 10.750M

Brandon Carr: 10.020M

Cortland Finnegan: 10M

Johnathan Joseph: 9.750M

Leon Hall: 8.475M

I included six because Revis is in his own category as a player. Just like WR, I didn’t want to include the absolute clear elite player at their position. It’s a bit unfair. But this is a good barometer of what players are worth. As you can see, the two most recently-paid CBs in Carr & Finnegan were paid on average 10M a year. Before them, Joseph, was paid close to 10M at 9.750M a year. Granted, the price of cornerbacks has dropped this year, but it’s currently unknown whether those prices dropped due to the abundance of CBs in the draft or not in addition to the talent of those players. 

[rmw10]

Alright here's my full analysis:

 

2014:

Cut Candidates: Suggs, McClain, McKinnie, Koch, Spears

ERFA/RFA: Nothing of real note here.

UFA: I'm thinking we'd love to re-sign Pitta, Jones, and Oher.  Graham, Jones, Dickson, and McClain (depending on behavior obviously) are probably guys we'd take back if the price is right.  Everyone else can walk.

 

As much as it pains me to say it, I think Suggs could be cut after the season.  Ozzie has cut guys like him before, so nothing would surprise me.  I think cutting Suggs largely depends on how much leadership we get out of the young guys.  We don't have too many big FAs after the season.  2 really nice pieces, 1 unknown in Oher, and a bunch of other players that are worth considering, but not needed.

 

2015:

Cut Candidates: Ngata, Canty

ERFA/RFA: Tucker is a guy that must be kept, and maybe Thompson depending on how he progresses.

UFA: Torrey is a must re-sign, and maybe even McPhee.  Jimmy is a bit of an unknown at this point.  Chykie, Doss, Cox, and Reed fall under the maybe keep, maybe let go, depending on how the next 2 seasons go.  Everyone else would probably walk.

 

While we only have 27 players under contract, that doesn't factor in the top 4 this year and our 10 picks next year.  That number will rise, so I don't see this year being that big of a deal.  Like 2014, I see 2 really nice pieces, 1 unknown in Jimmy, and a few nice role players/potential starters.  Since the RFA market is generally quiet, I don't expect Tucker to be a high priority.  We'll get a deal done with him at some point though.

 

 

 

I really think we're in pretty good shape going forward.  Next year will be a pain to get under the cap.  We have a lot of guys under contact and 10 draft picks right now.  While I wouldn't call 2015 a cakewalk, I think it will be much easier.  Torrey will obviously be expensive, but we'll find a way to get it done.

[ravensdan]

We have to re-sign Torrey. There's no way we can let him go. That's my only comment for now until I look at this more in depth later.

It's impossible to say what will happen between now and then but don't be shocked if Torrey is gone. There are a great many factors involved, but he could sign a reasonable deal like Antonio brown or get paid 13 mil from the dolphins. I would be shocked if we came anywhere near that.

[Yatagarasu]

2014:

Cap Maximum: $122 million (Estimated)

Current Cap: $113 million

 

That gives us about $9 M of cap space.

 

2014 Free Agents:

 

Quality FAs:

Michael Oher - OT

Jacoby Jones - WR

Vonta Leach - FB

Corey Graham - CB

Arthur Jones - DT

Dennis Pitta - TE

 

Other FAs:

Ed Dickson - TE

Terrence Cody - DT

James Ihedigbo - SS

Rolando McClain - ILB (If he survives TC)

Ramon Harewood - G (If he makes cut)

 

RFA:

LaQuan Williams - WR

Anthon Allen - RB

Albert McClellan - ILB
Michael McAdoo - OLB

Josh Bynes - ILB
 

If we follow the patterns of the last two years, then we know how 2014 offseason will go. I assume we'll lose majority of our quality free agents to other teams. We might use our franchise tag or try to extend on Dennis Pitta, which I feel is our highest priority in the offseason. As for RFAs, I assume if one of the players turn out to be a starter, then a 2nd round tender will be give. Everyone else might not get tendered since all of them are undrafted or low round selection. After the Free Agency Purge, Ozzie will resign any players that are willing to come back for the right price. Also, waived free agents have been a favorite of the Oz, so we'll pick up any cut players for the right value. After that, we're expected to get 10 draft selections for 2014 draft, which will be used to make the bulk of our roster replacements. 

 

There could be another direction Oz could make if he feels like we're losing too much talent. That is to cut players to make cap space. It's not a favorable option, but has to be considered, since the the cap is a business.

 

Possible Cuts for 2014:

Terrell Suggs - $7.8M - Might be considered if he fails expectations this season

Jameel McClain - $3.2M - He had a down year in 2012 and has to prove himself healthy and worthy as a starter

Bryant McKinnie - $3M - His contract is backloaded so the team can protect their cap, if expectations fail

Marcus Spears - $1.2M - His contract is backloaded too for salary cap purpose, he might be expendable if our D-line is deep

 

Total Space Cap Freed: $15.2 M

 

These four players alone can free up $22.35 M, which can be used to resign our players or get a quality free agent.

[rmw10]

It's impossible to say what will happen between now and then but don't be shocked if Torrey is gone. There are a great many factors involved, but he could sign a reasonable deal like Antonio brown or get paid 13 mil from the dolphins. I would be shocked if we came anywhere near that.

 

Torrey is a guy that a team can build around.  He has all the intangibles, from his leadership to his skills on the field.  This is the type of guy that teams don't let go, and I doubt the Ravens would even let him hit the open market.

[rmw10]

 

Possible Departures for 2014:

Terrell Suggs - $12.4M - Might be considered if he fails expectations this season

Jameel McClain - $4.4M - He had a down year in 2012 and has to prove himself healthy and worthy as a starter

Bryant McKinnie - $4M - His contract is backloaded so the team can protect their cap, if expectations fail

Marcus Spears - $1.55M - His contract is backloaded too for salary cap purpose, he might be expendable if our D-line is deep

 

Total Space Cap Freed: $22.35 M

 

These four players alone can free up $22.35 M, which can be used to resign our players or get a quality free agent.

 

 

You wouldn't save that much.  Suggs would save $7.8M, McClain $3.2M, McKinnie $3M, and Spears $1.2M.  Totals up to $15.2M, which is still quite a bit.

[RayRicefan2720]

Torrey is a guy that a team can build around.  He has all the intangibles, from his leadership to his skills on the field.  This is the type of guy that teams don't let go, and I doubt the Ravens would even let him hit the open market.

 

Torrey doesn't seem like the type of guy that would let money get in the way. He seems to like it here, its close to home, so I don't think he would leave for money. Never know though

[GrimCoconut]

Torrey is a guy that a team can build around.  He has all the intangibles, from his leadership to his skills on the field.  This is the type of guy that teams don't let go, and I doubt the Ravens would even let him hit the open market.

I highly doubt Torrey Smith leaves this team. He is one of the very few players I believe 100% is going to be a cornerstone of this franchise.

[GrimCoconut]

Torrey doesn't seem like the type of guy that would let money get in the way. He seems to like it here, its close to home, so I don't think he would leave for money. Never know though

I know he doesn't. I agree. Rice didn't seem like the kind of guy, either. He took a favorable deal for us and for himself. Torrey's agent is also Drew Rosenhaus. He's one of the worst but best agents out there. He'll squeeze every penny.

[rmw10]

I highly doubt Torrey Smith leaves this team. He is one of the very few players I believe 100% is going to be a cornerstone of this franchise.

 

Agreed, and I think the Ravens hold him in that same regard.  I see his situation playing out similar to Flacco.  He's a guy that we'll prioritize early and get locked up before free agency hits.  He'll get his money, and he'll get a lot, but nothing that would absolutely kill us long term.

[CapoRocky]

One thing to look forward to 2014 is that there will be a strong WR position in the draft.

[hawkprey]

Not every position can see inflated top salary averages. Unless the cap goes up at the same rate, you'd end up with too many veterans out of work and no team with extra room to sign anyone but rookies. The rate has to adjust itself. QB's obviously make a difference to a team, but over time we'll see that enormous contracts to WRs, LTs, CBs, and so on just aren't worth it. When was the last time one of the league's best WR's won the Super Bowl? How about the best cornerback? 

[ThePurpleWall]

the people saying go sign this and that player, don't know what their talking about and im so glad they arnt running the Ravens.

[Yatagarasu]

We have to re-sign Torrey.  There's no way we can let him go.  That's my only comment for now until I look at this more in depth later.

 

 

I'm in the middle of compiling more lists, but here's a snapshot of the top-paid wide receivers in the NFL:

 

 

Average Top-5 WR pay:

Calvin Johnson: 18.182M

Larry Fitzgerald: 14.125M

Mike Wallace: 12M

Dwayne Bowe: 11.2M

Percy Harvin: 11.166M

As you can see, even injuries don’t drop the value of WR (Harvin). WR is becoming one of the highest paid positions in the NFL. Its average salary has already eclipsed the average left tackle salary. That’s significant. 

 

It's going to be a challenge to pay Torrey Smith. We might have to pay him 13M/year. I'm not even joking around. Even if I remove Fitz & Megatron, you have V-Jax at 11M, Hester at 10.2M, Andre Johnson at 9.6M, DeSean Jackson at 9.4M, & Holmes at 9M. At the rate that wide receivers' salaries are increasing, and with Torrey Smith's character & ethics, he might command a nice salary when he is due. 

 

I don't disagree. Smith absolutely needs to be re-signed. It's just we're going to need to save some money for this. 

 

My next post is going to compare the dropping price of LT compared to the rest of the positions. I think it may be wiser to draft WRs & CBs earlier than before. This way, we can go after LTs in free agency, where the price would be less than wide receivers. 

 

We don't have to worry about that until 2015. I know Ozzie will save enough cap space to try to extend Torrey Smith. If worst comes to worst, then it's the franchise tag to give more time for negotiations.

 

Mike Wallace Dwayne Bowe, and Percy Harvin really increased the value of WRs. I feel Ozzie is going to try to lock Torrey up either by extending him early in 2014 or using the franchise tag as a starting point. Anything around Antonio Brown's contract is a real good value. Anything higher might be questionable unless Torrey Smith establish himself as a top ten WR.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/nfl/average/wide-receiver/

 

Top Ten WR Contracts: 

1. Calvin Johnson - $18.812 M per year

2. Larry Fitzerald - $14.125 M per year

3. Mike Wallace - $12 M per year

4. Dwayne Bowe - $11.2 M per year

5. Percy Harvin - $11.666 M per year

6. Vincent Jackson - $11.111 M per year

7. Devin Hester - $10.243 M per year

8. Andre Johnson - $9.685 M per year

9. DeSean Jackson - $9.4 M per year

10. Santonio Holmes - $9 M per year

 

Top Ten WR Stats:

1. Calvin Johnson - 122 Rec - 1964 Yds - 5 TDs

2. Andre Johnson - 112 Rec - 1598 Yds - 4 TDs

3. Brandon Marshall - 118 Rec - 1508 Yds - 11 TDs

4. Demaryius Thomas - 94 Rec - 1434 Yds - 10 TDs

5. Vincent Jackson - 72 Rec - 1384 Yds - 8 TDs

6. Dez Bryant - 92 Rec - 1382 Yds - 12 TDs

7. Reggie Wayne - 106 Rec - 1355 Yds - 5 TDs

8. Wes Welker - 118 Rec - 1354 Yds - 6 TDs

9. Roddy White - 92 Rec - 1351 Yds - 7 TDs

10. A.J.  Green - 97 Rec - 1350 Yds - 11 TDs

 

Upcoming WR Contracts:

Demaryius Thomas - 94 Rec - 1434 Yds - 10 TDs

Dez Bryant - 92 Rec - 1382 Yds - 12 TDs

A.J.  Green - 97 Rec - 1350 Yds - 11 TDs

Julio Jones - 79 Rec - 1198 Yds - 10 TDs

Michael Crabtree - 85 Rec - 1105 Yds - 9 TDs

Victor Cruz - 86 Rec - 1092 Yds - 10 TDs

Eric Decker - 85 Rec - 1064 Yds - 13 TDs

Mike Williams - 63 Rec - 996 Yds - 9 TDs

 

If most of these WRs get 10+ M per year contracts, then that might be a good point for Torrey Smith to start. However, Torrey Smith has to produce 70+ Recs, 1000+ yards, and 8+ TDs to be in the range of these WRs. I feel AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant have the ability to ask for more than $12+ million since they can be considered far more superior than Mike Wallace.

 

My mind say we can sign Torrey Smith around $9.5 M per year, which is around current Franchise Tag number.

 

Realistic, it might be $11.5 M per year, if Torrey produce these numbers consistently (70+ Recs, 1200+ yards, and 8+ TDs).

[Yatagarasu]

You wouldn't save that much.  Suggs would save $7.8M, McClain $3.2M, McKinnie $3M, and Spears $1.2M.  Totals up to $15.2M, which is still quite a bit.

 

Thanks for the correction. $15.2M is something we can work with, which we can sign two or three quality free agents or resign couple of our guys.

[ravensdan]

Not every position can see inflated top salary averages. Unless the cap goes up at the same rate, you'd end up with too many veterans out of work and no team with extra room to sign anyone but rookies. The rate has to adjust itself. QB's obviously make a difference to a team, but over time we'll see that enormous contracts to WRs, LTs, CBs, and so on just aren't worth it. When was the last time one of the league's best WR's won the Super Bowl? How about the best cornerback?

This is what is beginning to happen now and it is only going to get worse more and more vets will be cut and more and more will be left unsigned until the market begins to correct itself. The cap is not going up anything but negligibley

[GrimCoconut]

Torrey will be one to watch going forward. He's now the unquestioned #1 WR on this team. If he produces like I expect and believe him to be able to produce he will get his big payday.

[ravensdan]

Torrey will be one to watch going forward. He's now the unquestioned #1 WR on this team. If he produces like I expect and believe him to be able to produce he will get his big payday.

If Torrey takes off as a real #1 top 10 or better wideout we would be wise to sign him long term sooner than later or he will be a casualty.

[Yatagarasu]

This is what is beginning to happen now and it is only going to get worse more and more vets will be cut and more and more will be left unsigned until the market begins to correct itself. The cap is not going up anything but negligibley

 

I wonder how long Darrelle Revis can play on his contract with Tampa Bay. $16 M is awful lot of money on just a cornerback, but Tampa Bay has more than enough money to eat that whole contract. It was smart to make them all one year contracts put together to give Revis motivation. Revis will work hard to live up to it because it's the most he will ever get, but then Calvin Johnson got paid $18+ M per year, which is like QB money.

[Yatagarasu]

If Torrey takes off as a real #1 top 10 or better wideout we would be wise to sign him long term sooner than later or he will be a casualty.

 

Ozzie wasn't afraid to pay Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs their full value at their time. If Torrey Smith produce strong top ten numbers, then Ozzie will pay the money. A burner like Torrey Smith really helps the offense because after burning Champ Bailey, the Broncos had to adjust by putting two people on his side for the rest of the half. That opens up other players to make the plays like Boldin, Jones, and Pitta.

[ravensdan]

I wonder how long Darrelle Revis can play on his contract with Tampa Bay. $16 M is awful lot of money on just a cornerback, but Tampa Bay has more than enough money to eat that whole contract. It was smart to make them all one year contracts put together to give Revis motivation. Revis will work hard to live up to it because it's the most he will ever get, but then Calvin Johnson got paid $18+ M per year, which is like QB money.

Those are two if the worst contracts in the nfl. Especially the revis deal is completely irresponsible which is why the jets one that trade despite what the talking heads say. Tampa could have easily built a contender with shrewd signings with all that money. Instead they are stuck with one corner coming off a major injury who will either be a shell of his former self or will play at an all pro level and be demanding yet another new contract.

[rmw10]

Those are two if the worst contracts in the nfl. Especially the revis deal is completely irresponsible which is why the jets one that trade despite what the talking heads say. Tampa could have easily built a contender with shrewd signings with all that money. Instead they are stuck with one corner coming off a major injury who will either be a shell of his former self or will play at an all pro level and be demanding yet another new contract.

 

That Revis deal is a great deal.  The Buccaneers can cut him at any time and owe him nothing.  And even if Revis is worth $16M, the Bucs are one of the few teams that can afford it.

[ravensdan]

That Revis deal is a great deal. The Buccaneers can cut him at any time and owe him nothing. And even if Revis is worth $16M, the Bucs are one of the few teams that can afford it.

Ask yourself. What would Ozzie have done with that money and that team?

[rmw10]

Ask yourself. What would Ozzie have done with that money and that team?

 

The Buccaneers have tons of cap space.  Obviously we couldn't afford it, but the Bucs have enough to get Revis and more.

[GrimCoconut]

I personally think Suggs had a better chance of staying on this team until he retires than Ngata. I think Haloti either is done the year before his contract expires or the year his contract expires and he's a free agent. I don't think he sees another deal. I don't think he loves the game that much.

[SecretAgentMan]

Looking ahead to next years offseason I see..

 

OMG OMG WE ARE SCREWED! WE LOST (insert player name here). NOW WE HAVE NO ONE.

0-16!

Thanks a lot Flacco!

Skip Bayless: I see the Ravens finishing dead last in the division 

Heath Evans: I told y'all Flacco could not produce. 

Mods:*Get headache*