Offense, not Defense improved in the playoffs

[ThePurpleWall]

your wrong, the offense and defense both improved in the playoffs, take out the yards per game stat and what do you have.

[berad]

I've always thought yards/play were more of an indicator than yards/game. That said:

 

Offense was 5.4 yards/play during the regular season, jumped to 6.1 yards/play in the post-season. That would have been good enough for the 3rd best offense in the league.

 

Defense averaged 5.2 yards/play in the regular season that number increased to 5.4 yards/play in the playoffs.

 

Defense made their plays, though, with timely turnovers, sacks, and stout redzone defense.

[PurpleCorsair]

 

There's this notion that Anquan Boldin is going to be as good as he was during the playoffs, yet everyone else on the team will not.

 

While I have to agree that Boldin underperformed during his years here, there is also the consideration that Cam was underutilizing him, or even misusing his talents.

One could make the argument that Boldin's production jumped once Caldwell took the reigns off of Joe, especially since the offense's production jumped. 

 

So while some may want playoff Boldin back, I just want [i]Cam-less[/i] Boldin back.

[easternshore97]

I typically try to avoid basing arguments on statistics. I don't disagree with anything you said re: Ray Lewis because before he went down with his injury the defense was horrid...flip side, I do disagree in your statement that he didn't make them better because he does.

 

But without going online, and relying on memory, your stats are skewed.

• We only gave up 9 points in the wild card if I remember correctly
• In the New England game, I thought the defense only gave up 14 or 17 points
• In Denver, defense only gave up 21

Now - if my memory is correct, that would mean that those are 3 games in which our point total was less than the average you quoted of 22. Most other stats, would be skewed by one game - the Super Bowl.

 

Ray actually does make the team better because he analyzes the play and then communicates to everyone what he sees. Throw your stats in the trash.

 

Recall his quote after the San Diego game in San Diego when he makes a 4th and something game saving tackle on Darren Sproles in the backfield. When asked about it, he said "there's only so many plays that can be run out of that formation".....That's the Ray Lewis effect

 

Again, most of the the numbers that you are averaging (re: our defense) is skewed because of 2 games - Denver and San Fran.

 

Throw your stats in the trash...(I don't mean that in a disrespectful way)

[berad]

Throw your stats in the trash because most of the offense that is skewing them came from 2 games - Denver and San Fran

 

Those two games make up half of our playoff run, is it really 'skewed' when it's half the sample? Also, in the Colts game we had 439 offensive yards. Patriots was 356.

 

Obviously Ray makes a huge impact on the defense and the entire team. I don't think we go on to win the SB without the momentum and uplift that Ray Lewis brought when he returned from injury.

[easternshore97]

Those two games make up half of our playoff run, is it really 'skewed' when it's half the sample? Also, in the Colts game we had 439 offensive yards. Patriots was 356.

 

Obviously Ray makes a huge impact on the defense and the entire team. I don't think we go on to win the SB without the momentum and uplift that Ray Lewis brought when he returned from injury.

 

Sorry - I was referring to the numbers that the defense gave up. Again, defense gave up 21 points in Denver which would be one less than the 22point average that was quoted for the playoffs.

 

I was not disputing anything that our own offense did

 

I guess you're right and the sample isn't technically skewed, but the numbers aren't really telling the story that the defense stunk it up in the playoffs and obviously he used 35 points in the Denver game as opposed to 21.

 

Perhaps if we must use stats, lets look at how many punts were forced in regular season vs playoffs? That might be a more meaningful average to look at if teams punted a whole lot more in the 4 game stretch and then maybe compare that to 1) 16 game average and/or 2) any other 4 game stretch during the season

[berad]

Sorry - I was referring to the numbers that the defense gave up. Again, defense gave up 21 points in Denver which would be one less than the 22point average that was quoted for the playoffs.
 
I was not disputing anything that our own offense did

Now I get it, okay!

[mgridda]

Again, most of the the numbers that you are averaging (re: our defense) is skewed because of 2 games - Denver and San Fran.

 

Throw your stats in the trash...(I don't mean that in a disrespectful way)

 

I really don't get this. I really don't understand why people continue to argue this way. This is the same as the argument that goes, "Well, Joe Flacco would have been a really bad Quarterback if you take away all his deep throws. His stats are skewed because of his deep throws" or, "____ player wouldn't be so great if it weren't for this game and that game." 

 

Hello, those games happened. The games against Denver and San Fran? They kind of mattered. Hell, they REALLY mattered. Had those games not happened exactly the way they did happen, then we wouldn't have won the Superbowl. Why do they get to be excluded from the reality? Why do they get to be excluded from actually happening?

[ThePurpleWall]

you can throw your yard per game stat out the window, the important one is points per game= offense and defense improved.

[easternshore97]

One thing is most important

 

 

This aura was myth. The defense as a whole needed a make-over, and it didn't get any better when Ray Lewis came back for the playoffs. In fact, it was statistically just a bit worse. Of course, the competition was better, but I'll put it this way:

• In the regular season, we allowed 21.5 ppg (12th best).
• In the playoffs, we allowed 22 ppg.
• In the regular season, we allowed 350 yards per game (17th).
• In the playoffs, we allowed 428 yards per game.
• In the regular season, we allowed a 36% 3rd down conversion rate
• In the playoffs, we allowed a 42% 3rd down conversion rate.

I really don't get this. I really don't understand why people continue to argue this way. This is the same as the argument that goes, "Well, Joe Flacco would have been a really bad Quarterback if you take away all his deep throws. His stats are skewed because of his deep throws" or, "____ player wouldn't be so great if it weren't for this game and that game." 

 

Hello, those games happened. The games against Denver and San Fran? They kind of mattered. Hell, they REALLY mattered. Had those games not happened exactly the way they did happen, then we wouldn't have won the Superbowl. Why do they get to be excluded from the reality? Why do they get to be excluded from actually happening?

 

Ray Lewis comes back and the defense got worse...I'm paraphrasing your initial statement which is above.

Let's talk apples to apples. If Ray Lewis comes back and the defense got worse, then you can only quote what Ray Lewis and the defense were responsible for. You can't include 35 points in the Denver game and then say that's on Ray Lewis and the defense because Ray Lewis and the defense were only on the field when 21 of those points were scored.

 

Now once you re-do the math, you'll see that the average for those 3 games is below the regular season average. I don't have to do the whole math in my head to tell you that the average is less because no team's offense scored more than 21 points against our defense - we have 9 from Indy, 21 from Denver, 13 from New England take the 10 surplus points from San Fran and apply all 10 to Indy and it's an average of less than 21. Now your first objection to that will be something along the lines of field position, but that argument is null and void because Trindon Holliday took it to the endzone untouched.

 

That's reason 1 why stats aren't making a solid argument about the defense being "worse"

Reason 2, you're not taking into account how efficient our offense was. Defense was on the field for 87 snaps against Indy and Denver. How many snaps did they play on average during the regular season. That is simply because our offense was going from one end of the field to the other and putting up points in a fairly short period of time. Offensive efficiency = more snaps for your defense = greater likelihood that they will give up more yards since the defense was not the brick wall of previous years = more 3rd down attempts = more opportunity to convert on those 3rd downs.

 

Now my point about the San Fran game skewing everything is that when 3 games are averaging less than 21 points against your defense, and you have one game that is off the charts, that 1 game in the Super Bowl, then the numbers will be skewed. It doesn't mean the average is wrong, it just says that your conclusions aren't fully substantiated by your statistical analysis.

 

Heck our Special Teams gave up 0 return yards against Indy. They then gave up 14 points in Denver. What is the assessment there? Not sure how many turnovers there were against Indy but there were 3 in Denver, a boatload of them in New England, at least 1 that I remember against San Fran. Is that factored into your final verdict?

 

One more thing - Denver scored 21 offensive points vs how many offensive points in the regular season game? After all, the playoff game was an extra 16 mins of play? New England scored 13 points in the AFC Championship game vs how many points in the regular season game?

[mgridda]

Special teams squad are all defensive players. It's still defense. You're tackling a guy with a ball. I don't see why it's exempt.

[gabefergy]

Special teams squad are all defensive players. It's still defense. You're tackling a guy with a ball. I don't see why it's exempt.

This statement isnt even remotely accurate.

[ThePurpleWall]

Special teams squad are all defensive players. It's still defense. You're tackling a guy with a ball. I don't see why it's exempt.

 

o you don't understand much do you.

[MassRavens]

Special teams squad are all defensive players. It's still defense. You're tackling a guy with a ball. I don't see why it's exempt.

 

I agreed on everything you were saying up until you started talking about special Tteams being part of defense. The touchdowns that special teams gave up are touchdowns that special teams gave up. Not offense, not defense. It's a completely different part of the football game. Whereas you usually watch offense vs. defense, when special teams are on the field it's kick-off vs punt return.

 

When you throw special teams statistics in with defensive statistics, that's like saying that had Joe had an pick six, then that's the fault of the defense as well.

[mgridda]

I agreed on everything you were saying up until you started talking about special Tteams being part of defense. The touchdowns that special teams gave up are touchdowns that special teams gave up. Not offense, not defense. It's a completely different part of the football game. Whereas you usually watch offense vs. defense, when special teams are on the field it's kick-off vs punt return.

 

When you throw special teams statistics in with defensive statistics, that's like saying that had Joe had an pick six, then that's the fault of the defense as well.

 

Well, Joe did have a pick-six against the Broncos in the regular season and it counted against the defense statistically.

 

That's the point I'm trying to make. Because it's only 4 games we're exempting the post season defense of things that count against their total scoreboard, due to the examples being clear. But we're not extending that same exemption to the regular season defense.

[edreedfromtheu]

One thing is most important

 

 

There seemed to be an aura about Ray Lewis' retirement. Everyone knew that with Ray, Suggs and Ngata all either completely out or nursing injuries throughout the regular season: our defense was uncharacteristically bad in 2012. For the first time in over a decade, we weren't a top 10 defense. However, there's a belief that Ray Lewis came back and the entire team started playing better: the defense especially. This aura was myth. The defense as a whole needed a make-over, and it didn't get any better when Ray Lewis came back for the playoffs. In fact, it was statistically just a bit worse. Of course, the competition was better, but I'll put it this way:

•  
• In the regular season, we allowed 21.5 ppg (12th best).
• In the playoffs, we allowed 22 ppg.
•  
• In the regular season, we allowed 350 yards per game (17th).
• In the playoffs, we allowed 428 yards per game.
•  
• In the regular season, we allowed a 36% 3rd down conversion rate
• In the playoffs, we allowed a 42% 3rd down conversion rate.

 

and for anyone curious, we even got run on more in the playoffs:

•  
• allowing 142.9 yard per game and a 4.4 YPer Carry average in the playoffs 
• but only a 122.8 yard per game and a 4.0 YPer Carry average in the regular season

 

2) Now, we also played better defenses in the playoffs. In fact, the defenses we faced were mostly better than the offenses we faced. But the differences to our offense were remarkable, and I don't think it has anything to do with Ray Lewis as much as it has to do with firing Cam Cameron, and Jim Caldwell letting Joe Flacco run the tempo, play calling and style of offense he wants. The turn-around, is due to Joe:

•  
• In the regular season we posted 24.9 ppg (10th best)
• In the playoffs, we posted 31 ppg (would have been good enough for 2nd best in the regular season)
•  
• In the regular season, we posted 352 yards per game (16th).
• In the playoffs, we posted 410 yards per game  (would have been good enough for 3rd best in the regular season)
•  
• In the regular season, converted 37% of our 3rd down conversions
• In the playoffs, we converted 46% of our 3rd down conversions (good enough for 2nd best in the regular season)

 

Now, mind you, we were the ONLY team who played 4 games last off-season, so our playoff team averages are of an even greater sample. 

 

 

I think what Ozzie is seeing is: with Joe Flacco, one of our young receivers can and will do a good job behind Torrey. My money is on Tandon Doss. And hopefully, hopefully, Bryant McKinnie will still be available after no one wants him, and right before training camp.

 

 

http://cbsboston.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/jf.jpg?w=400&h=532

 

 

---

P.S. 

Best to add this in here instead of start a whole other topic:

 

*) We could have afforded Anquan Boldin for 2013. We could have made all the moves we have made and still put Anquan Boldin out on the field without him taking a paycut. We didn't want to afford Anquan Boldin for 2013. It didn't seem smart. Ozzie didn't feel he was getting the right player, at the right price. The same ozzie who watches every practice. And I'm trusting that Ozzie will be vindicated with exactly why it's not smart after Anquan has a regular season even worse than his 2012 showing of 65 / 921 / 4 TDs, and a buried short post-season.

Sigh.... and this, ladies and gentlemen, is what happens when you go look up stats and then try to make an argument of what happens on the field with numbers.

Yes, the offense played much better.  And most of that was because Joe Flacco played much better.

But you're crazy if you think the defense didn't play better with Ray Lewis back on the field.  Did you see what they did to Peyton Manning?  And that's after special teams put them in a hole TWICE.  THEY made the real play that sealed the deal.  They picked off Manning in overtime.  And yes, Justin Tucker came up clutch and did his job.

You can look at stats all you want.  ANY defense would be better with the greatest linebacker of all time and the greatest safety of all time playing on it.  And considering they were playing just fine as recently as a few months ago, I imagine they can still play pretty good today and probably in September.

We're not going to find out how the new, younger defense turns out until the games start.  So take your shots now.  Ed Reed returns in Week 3.

[beasy2487]

I really don't get this. I really don't understand why people continue to argue this way. This is the same as the argument that goes, "Well, Joe Flacco would have been a really bad Quarterback if you take away all his deep throws. His stats are skewed because of his deep throws" or, "____ player wouldn't be so great if it weren't for this game and that game."

Hello, those games happened. The games against Denver and San Fran? They kind of mattered. Hell, they REALLY mattered. Had those games not happened exactly the way they did happen, then we wouldn't have won the Superbowl. Why do they get to be excluded from the reality? Why do they get to be excluded from actually happening?

I understand where you're coming from man. People are just touchy about Ray Lewis. The fact of the matter is that last year out defense was atrocious, top to bottom, with and without Ray Lewis. In the Super Bowl, Lewis was not -a- liability, he was -the- liability(although Pollard gets an honorable mention). All that said, the positive or negative influence Lewis' return had on the defense is negligible because we were bad anyway.

The crux of your original argument is sound though. The offense picked Ray and the defense up. I'd argue that D was just as inspired, they just didn't have the horses and needed the offense to do the heavy lifting. Fortunately Caldwell understood that and gave Flacco the keys, and Flacco put on one of the most inspired postseason runs by a QB of all time.

Net: The offense did improve with the return of Ray Lewis, the defense was awful both with and without him.

[Fred Sanford]

Looking at how the defense was playing at times during the regular season, like the team-wide (defense included) atrocity in Texas, the Brent Celek career day in Philly, Moreno in the home game vs. Denver, the Chiefs running roughshod, the Cowboys running roughshod, the Redskins running roughshod, inability to stop Charlie Batch, and other moments, we clearly improved down the stretch starting with the Giants game.

 

Indy, first round:  Luck pressured all day.  Reggie Wayne had a good game, Dwayne Allen had some great runs after the catch, that's about it, strong performance. 9/10

 

Denver, second round:  Gave up two touchdowns after Corey Graham's INT on great throws to Stokley and Moreno.  Shut down Peyton for good while until Demaryius Thomas's catch Ray couldn't catch up with and Ed Reed got easily stiffarmed.  Did, however, stop Broncos rest of the way, including 3rd down stop to allow Flacco to Jacoby late.  Corey Graham 2 picks, Suggs forced fumble, 21 points through 5+ quarters.  About even. 6/10

 

Patriots, AFCG:  Against probably best offense in game, held in check first half, choke slammed second half.  Outstanding performance. 10/10

 

Super Bowl:  Strong in first half, Courtney Upshaw did save points by smashing LaMichael James.  Ed Reed easy pick by huge overthrow by Kaepernick.  Started strong in second half with Art Jones sack.  Frank Gore and o-line started dominating, Sam Koch awful punt+ Ginn return sets up easy second touchdown.  Ray Rice immediate fumble after doesn't help.  Gore huge run at end but 9'ers halted by Jimmy Smith.  Ray Rice fumble and Koch punt + return + Ngata injury (though he was having a relatively poor game) didn't help, but overall not great defensive performance.  Did, however, force field goals in red zone at end of each half.  4/10

 

They gave up a good deal of yards, but outside Denver, the sweep to Gore, and somehow expecting DeAngelo Tyson to contain Kaepernick on his run, they did a good job of preventing redzone touchdowns.  I'd give em a 29/40 performance.  I'd say regular season, more like 22/40, and only because of similar redzone efficiency.  Forget the "most yards given up by Super Bowl winner, therefore worst championship defense ever," bit. 

 

In any case, the biggest problems in giving up those yards, Ray being too slow to cover the middle, and Ed Reed being unable to wrap up, should be nicely dealt with by Matt Elam, Arthur Brown and our new D-line.