Stm85's 2013 Mock Power Rankings and Playoff Predictions

[-Truth-]

I would rank them
Schaub
Dalton
Stafford(I believe he would be considered a bust today w/o Calvin)

Schaub may be ok to best a wildcard team such as the brngals last year but I just can't see him taking the next step to beating the championship qbs.

 

Barring on whether he at least somewhat bounces back this season, I actually might put Stafford over Dalton. Dalton fell into a similar situation with an elite WR in AJ Green. Both have had their miscues thus far, and Stafford is definitely more talented. Just my opinion.

[gabefergy]

AFC:

1. Denver
2. Baltimore
3. New England
4. Houston
5. Kansas City
6. Miami

NFC

1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Washington
5. Atlanta
6. SF

AFC WC Round

NE over MIA and HOU over KC

NFC WC Round:

NO over SF and WAS over ATL

AFC Divisional:

DEN over HOU and BAL over NE

NFC Divisional:

SEA over WAS and GB over NO

AFC Championship:

DEN over BAL

NFC championship:

GB over SEA

SB: GB over DEN

[-Truth-]

I'm personally not sold on Green Bay winning the Super Bowl. Between Antrel Rolle, Nnamdi Asomugha and Quentin Jammer, who've been horrendous over the last two years, I see them they'd have a tough time against high-end WR groups. They definitely have the passing attack to match up with any secondary. But they'd likely have to depend on Alex Okafor and Sam Montgomery to generate pressure opposite of Clay Matthews, with Nick Perry being a non-factor last season, which would be a difficult task against two terrific OT duos they'd face in Denver and New Orleans. In turn, I see them finding themselves on the wrong end of a shoot out.

[arnie_uk]

I really wish I got Patton in the second, I was like 2 picks away and waiting on him. A third wideout would really have out me over the top

[-Truth-]

I really wish I got Patton in the second, I was like 2 picks away and waiting on him. A third wideout would really have out me over the top

 

Perhaps I could spare you one of mine.

[arnie_uk]

Perhaps I could spare you one of mine.

who do you have? Late season trade to push me to Super Bowl victory lol

[-Truth-]

who do you have? Late season trade to push me to Super Bowl victory lol

 

lol I'll PM you. We should both be in contention, so it would work out for both sides.

[stm85]

Championship Games

 

2. New Orleans @ 1. Seattle

Both of these teams have looked unbeatable in the playoffs and will slug it out in a very good game. When Seattle has the ball look for them to try to establish the run. the Saints have a solid front 3 and 2 good run stuffers at ILB but they aren't deep at these spots and if they can get the run going early they can tire this group out. Seattle doesn't have great pass blocking on the right side and the Saints have a deep stable of rushers. However, Russell Wilson is very elusive and his ability to extend plays could offset one of the biggest strengths of this attacking defense. This could lead to some big plays. On the other side, New Orleans' OL will be the key here. It is a very stout group but Seattle has a lot of weapons rushing the passer as well. If Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant can occupy blockers then players will get free and bother Drew Brees. I have a hard time seeing the Saints getting the running game going so it will be up to Brees to make plays. Fortunately, even a deep Seattle secondary, probably the best secondary in the NFL, isn't deep enough to hang with this unbelievable group of WRs and TEs. The Seahawks can only hope to slow down the passing attack because they have no shot of stopping it. I expect this game to be close throughout, with lots of lead changes. However, at the end of the game, when both teams are gassed, I like the mobility of Russell Wilson and tough running by Marshawn Lynch. The sophomore sensation will lead a last minute touchdown drive from behind in front of a raucous home crowd and move Seattle into the Super Bowl. Seattle 27 New Orleans 24

 

2. Baltimore @ 1. Denver

 

Last year these teams met in the divisional round and it ended up being arguably the most entertaining game in NFL history. The Ravens will have a much harder time on the ground this year as Denver has vastly improved their front 7. The Broncos also have a very good pass rusher, but the Ravens hope the addition of Whitworth will be able to contain it. If Flacco does have time to throw he will be able to get deep against this secondary and make some big time plays. However, without the running game having much success it may be hard to establish the play action pass. The Broncos will be able to find success through the air against a safety group that isn't very good against the pass. Baltimore's good CBs will only be able to do so much. However, the stout front 7 from Baltimore will shut down the run and put pressure on Peyton Manning. This could come down to the great match up between Suggs and Clady. In the end I think this Broncos' team is too talented. Demarius Thomas will make a couple of big plays and while Torrey Smith is capable of the same, Flacco will make a mistake or two under the intense pressure that Denver will bring, especially since establishing the run will be very difficult. This will be another tight game but the Broncos will get revenge and move on to face Seattle in the Superbowl. Denver 30 Baltimore 24

[Dubs]

Seattle to the Superbowl!! The suspense is killing me...I think Seattle has the edge..not bias at all right now

[GrimCoconut]

Seattle to the Superbowl!! The suspense is killing me...I think Seattle has the edge..not bias at all right now

I don't like Seattle to win it to be honest. Perfect teams rarely win it all.

[gabefergy]

I'm personally not sold on Green Bay winning the Super Bowl. Between Antrel Rolle, Nnamdi Asomugha and Quentin Jammer, who've been horrendous over the last two years, I see them they'd have a tough time against high-end WR groups. They definitely have the passing attack to match up with any secondary. But they'd likely have to depend on Alex Okafor and Sam Montgomery to generate pressure opposite of Clay Matthews, with Nick Perry being a non-factor last season, which would be a difficult task against two terrific OT duos they'd face in Denver and New Orleans. In turn, I see them finding themselves on the wrong end of a shoot out.

They have two top end CBs and a very solid front 7. Nnamdi has been bad, but if he struggles as a starter there is depth behind him. Datone Jones can be the pass rusher opposite of Mathews or he can rush from the inside. You can't just write off a first round pick because he was injured. Even then, between Montgomery and Okafor there are pass rushing options. I don't see any team that has a defense capable of slowing down that offense enough for that defense to be exposed.

[-Truth-]

Another good read. If I may, if Seattle does beat New Orleans, I don't know if it'd happen by way of running the football. Russell Okung and Max Unger are clearly among the best. However, they would be depending on the 3rd worst graded OG, as well as the 64th, in Jeff Allen and James Carpenter to overcome one of the best run defending front sevens in the NFL. Allen's situation could be particularly rough with project Menelik Watson on his side. Fortunately for Watson, he'd have a bit of experience under his belt by the time of this contest. But Brandon Graham and Derrick Morgan are a handful for any RT.

 

Similarly, I don't see the running game being bogged down on the opposite side. The elite run blocking of Tyron and Andre Smith should set the edges against the well below-average run defenders of Paul Kruger, Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin. In addition, Red Bryant, DeAndre Levy and Michael Boley reportedly had their worst seasons as professionals in 2012. Their grades reflect those sentiments, as they were the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worst at their positions, all struggling against the run and pass. The biggest obstacles for the running game would be Brandon Mebane and Bobby Wagner. The interior trio of the Saints is arguably the best in football, and should minimize Mebane's effect in the running game. A very intriguing match up would be Wagner vs Jed Collins, one of the best run blocking FBs over the last two years. Lastly, the RB stable has more than enough depth to counteract any individual struggles. Andre Brown would be likely be a key factor. His ability to wear down defenses with his physical running style should open things up for David Wilson, Montee Ball and Darren Sproles, all of whom provide different elements. Given the circumstances, I personally see the running game being more successful than not.

[stm85]

Another good read. If I may, if Seattle does beat New Orleans, I don't know if it'd happen by way of running the football. Russell Okung and Max Unger are clearly among the best. However, they would be depending on the 3rd worst graded OG, as well as the 64th, in Jeff Allen and James Carpenter to overcome one of the best run defending front sevens in the NFL. Allen's situation could be particularly rough with project Menelik Watson on his side. Fortunately for Watson, he'd have a bit of experience under his belt by the time of this contest. But Brandon Graham and Derrick Morgan are a handful for any RT.

 

Similarly, I don't see the running game being bogged down on the opposite side. The elite run blocking of Tyron and Andre Smith should set the edges against the well below-average run defenders of Paul Kruger, Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin. In addition, Red Bryant, DeAndre Levy and Michael Boley reportedly had their worst seasons as professionals in 2012. Their grades reflect those sentiments, as they were the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worst at their positions, all struggling against the run and pass. The biggest obstacles for the running game would be Brandon Mebane and Bobby Wagner. The interior trio of the Saints is arguably the best in football, and should minimize Mebane's effect in the running game. A very intriguing match up would be Wagner vs Jed Collins, one of the best run blocking FBs over the last two years. Lastly, the RB stable has more than enough depth to counteract any individual struggles. Andre Brown would be likely be a key factor. His ability to wear down defenses with his physical running style should open things up for David Wilson, Montee Ball and Darren Sproles, all of whom provide different elements. Given the circumstances, I personally see the running game being more successful than not.

 

You are forgetting about KJ Wright, who is an excellent run stopper. Seattle has a very deep rotation and would probably not have Kruger or Irvin in on run downs. Clemons isn't great against the run, but he isn't horrible either. You do make a good point about Seattle's line but Lynch is the type of RB who keeps chugging through traffic and makes his own holes. It's Seattle's depth that I think is the key here. I see both running games being shut down early but Seattle has much more depth stopping the run the New Orleans and will be able to get it going in the 4th quarter with a closer like Lynch. I also worry about a tired defense chasing around a mobile Wilson, which is not something Seattle has to worry about. This was one of the hardest games to call. To me Seattle, Denver, and New Orleans represent a very clear top tier of teams and unfortunately someone had to be left out of the big game. The factors above and one of the best homefield advantages in sports led me to picking the Seahawks to advance.

[-Truth-]

They have two top end CBs and a very solid front 7. Nnamdi has been bad, but if he struggles as a starter there is depth behind him. Datone Jones can be the pass rusher opposite of Mathews or he can rush from the inside. You can't just write off a first round pick because he was injured. Even then, between Montgomery and Okafor there are pass rushing options. I don't see any team that has a defense capable of slowing down that offense enough for that defense to be exposed.

 

Casey Hayward was easily a top tier CB in 2012, but having followed this team closely since taking control of them in one of the previous Mocks, I'd definitely argue that Tramon Williams has only been above average over the past two seasons. Jammer's arguably struggled worse than Asomugha. With Heyward primarily playing at the Nickle, should Nnamdi struggle on the outside for a third straight season, they'd likely have to lean on Tharold Simon and Davon House to take over the right side, which is a very difficult task with the WR groups they'd face down the stretch. I very much like Jones inside. However, I'm not at all writing off Perry because of his injuries. The point about him being a non-factor was regarding his on-the-field performances before his injury. They certainly do have depth in Okafor And Montgomery, which I've outlined in the previous post. But it doesn't change the fact that they'd have a difficult time in facing two of the best OT duos. And given how critical you were on Malcolm Jenkins, the fact that Antrel Rolle has been a disaster at Safety can't be ignored. I certainly agree about their Offense. But I believe that there are teams that can match their firepower and have arguably better Defenses as well.

[-Truth-]

You are forgetting about KJ Wright, who is an excellent run stopper. Seattle has a very deep rotation and would probably not have Kruger or Irvin in on run downs. Clemons isn't great against the run, but he isn't horrible either. You do make a good point about Seattle's line but Lynch is the type of RB who keeps chugging through traffic and makes his own holes. It's Seattle's depth that I think is the key here. I see both running games being shut down early but Seattle has much more depth stopping the run the New Orleans and will be able to get it going in the 4th quarter with a closer like Lynch. I also worry about a tired defense chasing around a mobile Wilson, which is not something Seattle has to worry about. This was one of the hardest games to call. To me Seattle, Denver, and New Orleans represent a very clear top tier of teams and unfortunately someone had to be left out of the big game. The factors above and one of the best homefield advantages in sports led me to picking the Seahawks to advance.

 

I definitely agree about this being a very difficult game to call, and I commend you for taking this task head on. I didn't discount Wright. Admittedly, I didn't observe him carefully this season. All I know is that his run support grade was at an even 0.0. Regarding this facet, Clemons graded out as the 6th worst run defender at his position. Irvin followed as the 5th worst, and Kruger was the 10th worst. Appreciate you taking the point about the OL into account, although I'd argue that Andre Brown has a similar running style. Regarding overall grades, I just felt that the disparities were difficult to ignore. The Saints OL and FB amassed a run blocking grade of +55.0. Seattle's front seven amassed a run stopping grade of -21.8. On the opposite side, Seattle's OL and FB amassed a -10.2. The Saints front seven finished with a +56.2 in run support.

[gabefergy]

Casey Hayward was easily a top tier CB in 2012, but having followed this team closely since taking control of them in one of the previous Mocks, I'd definitely argue that Tramon Williams has only been above average over the past two seasons. Jammer's arguably struggled worse than Asomugha. With Heyward primarily playing at the Nickle, should Nnamdi struggle on the outside for a third straight season, they'd likely have to lean on Tharold Simon and Davon House to take over the right side, which is a very difficult task with the WR groups they'd face down the stretch. I very much like Jones inside. However, I'm not at all writing off Perry because of his injuries. The point about him being a non-factor was regarding his on-the-field performances before his injury. They certainly do have depth in Okafor And Montgomery, which I've outlined in the previous post. But it doesn't change the fact that they'd have a difficult time in facing two of the best OT duos. And given how critical you were on Malcolm Jenkins, the fact that Antrel Rolle has been a disaster at Safety can't be ignored. I certainly agree about their Offense. But I believe that there are teams that can match their firepower and have arguably better Defenses as well.

Rolle isnt a disaster at safety, he still plays the run well and isnt terrible in coverage. Far from a Malcolm Jenkins type flop who was consistently dreadful last year in pretty much every aspect of the game. If you are comparing between NO and GB, the overall secondary is much deeper and more talented in GB. Your team is leaning on two average starting CBs and no one of note behind them, so it's a little bit of pot/kettle here.

[Dubs]

I definitely agree about this being a very difficult game to call, and I commend you for taking this task head on. I didn't discount Wright. Admittedly, I didn't observe him carefully this season. All I know is that his run support grade was at an even 0.0. Regarding this facet, Clemons graded out as the 6th worst run defender at his position. Irvin followed as the 5th worst, and Kruger was the 10th worst. Appreciate you taking the point about the OL into account, although I'd argue that Andre Brown has a similar running style. Regarding overall grades, I just felt that the disparities were difficult to ignore. The Saints OL and FB amassed a run blocking grade of +55.0. Seattle's front seven amassed a run stopping grade of -21.8. On the opposite side, Seattle's OL and FB amassed a -10.2. The Saints front seven finished with a +56.2 in run support.

 

Not to discount these 'grades' but what were the Ravens last season. I do not have access nor do i use this info but I am guessing they are not great I may be wrong. But I think much of the playoffs are about contained and consistent momentum as well as having a team that functions and balances each side of the ball well. We (the ravens) won with one of our worst statistical years, and probably a mediocre offense...so I am just saying the numbers only provide a part of it all. Plus it is extremely easy to have a bad run grade for a pass rush specialist who comes in on third downs and second downs and told te get after the quarterback first, I am not arguing Kruger or Irvin can stuff the run but it is likely they had alot of big third down draw type runs that picked up good yardage and meant minimal to nothing to the game, but killed their stat line..not sure if they take these types of things into account.

 

But I do think the Seattle team I built is very good even with the bad OL 'grades' they are still one of the most effective and dominant run teams, and if anything my OL only got better. And in the front seven as Stm pointed out I have great depth and mix of players who are situation specific type guys

[stm85]

Super Bowl

 

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

 

This is the big one. The top two teams have seperated themselves from the pack and advanced through a very difficult playoff bracket to make it here. Both of these teams have very capable offenses but in this game I expect the defenses to take over. Even the tough running Marshawn Lynch will have a hard time getting beast mode going against an incredibly stout DL and LB group. The Broncos are deep enough that Lynch won't be able to wear them down; it will be a tough game for him. The Broncos aren't built as a running team so I don't expect them to do much against Mebane, Bryant, Wagner and Wright. Manning will have to throw the ball early and often but that could be tough as well. The Broncos don't have an exceptionally deep group of WRs and the Seahawks pair of Sherman and Browner are one of the very few who can shut down Thomas and Decker. The safeties and LBs should be good enough to limit the other weapons that Manning would like to capitalize on. The pass rush will have to step up. Clady is one of the best at LT but the deep rotation of Seattle should be able to find a way to be disruptive. Meanwile, the Broncos also have a very good secondary and pass rush, which will give the Seahawks a lot of problems due to some weak spots in their OL. However, Wilson's mobility will negate some of this advantage, although Denver has the athletic LBs to limit his ability to pick up yards on the ground. With such a great season, it is no surprise that this game would be very difficult to call. In the end, I think the difference will end up being Russel Wilson. His ability to keep plays alive with his feet will give his WRs time to get open against a very good secondary, while Peyton Manning will not have this advantage against Seattle's very physical group. This is precisely what will happen at the end of the game, as Wilson will lead a game winning drive in the last seconds of the game to bring Seattle its first ever Super Bowl title. Seattle 20 Denver 17

[Yatagarasu]

NFC East must really sucks, if Washington sneaks into the playoffs. That team has a lot of holes as along with the other teams. I feel the Eagles might be the team that can win the East if they can get Chip Kelly's offense to work.

 

I feel Denver stands alone in the AFC, due to their completeness, but I give my respect to other proven contenders like Baltimore and New England.

 

The NFC might have more competition since Seattle, Green Bay, and New Orleans.

 

On paper, New Orleans have the best chance to win it all, but playoffs are won by the team who makes the least mistakes. 

[Yatagarasu]

Seattle Seahawks' Legion of Boom type defense might be good, but I feel Drew Brees will have all day to throw with his stud O-line. Also, the targets of Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant, Mike Williams, and David Wilson will create a lot of mismatches.

[Dubs]

Yay for Seattle! they deserve a SB

[-Truth-]

Rolle isnt a disaster at safety, he still plays the run well and isnt terrible in coverage. Far from a Malcolm Jenkins type flop who was consistently dreadful last year in pretty much every aspect of the game. If you are comparing between NO and GB, the overall secondary is much deeper and more talented in GB. Your team is leaning on two average starting CBs and no one of note behind them, so it's a little bit of pot/kettle here.

 

Rolle's easily been one of the worst cover Safeties over the past three seasons. I've followed him ever since his hat trick performance against Carson Palmer during his Arizona stint. While I was among the ones who thought that this contest could've ignited a stellar future, I'll be the first to admit that he's been nothing short of a major disappointment in New York. And Vontae Davis is far from average. In fact, he graded out as a Top 15 cover CB in 2012. We were in the front seat to witness his ability, as he shut us out completely on 6 targets. Between Jabari Greer, Shareece Wright and Chris Owens, all 4 of my CBs finished either within or just outside of the Top 3rd in coverage at their position. All of them graded out higher in coverage than Tramon Williams. And that's if Devin McCourty is slotted at FS, who was one of the best DBs in football last season. It's no contest between the two Safety groups, heavily leaning in my favor. Even if we avoid grades altogether, one secondary statistically blows the other out of the water. New Orleans allowed 2,279 yards, 12 TDs to 15 INTs and a QB rating of 60.8. As for Green Bay, they allowed 4,042 yards, 27 TDs to 18 INTs and a QB rating of 81.5. So your point about the pot and the kettle has no merit behind it.

[-Truth-]

Not to discount these 'grades' but what were the Ravens last season. I do not have access nor do i use this info but I am guessing they are not great I may be wrong. But I think much of the playoffs are about contained and consistent momentum as well as having a team that functions and balances each side of the ball well. We (the ravens) won with one of our worst statistical years, and probably a mediocre offense...so I am just saying the numbers only provide a part of it all. Plus it is extremely easy to have a bad run grade for a pass rush specialist who comes in on third downs and second downs and told te get after the quarterback first, I am not arguing Kruger or Irvin can stuff the run but it is likely they had alot of big third down draw type runs that picked up good yardage and meant minimal to nothing to the game, but killed their stat line..not sure if they take these types of things into account.

 

But I do think the Seattle team I built is very good even with the bad OL 'grades' they are still one of the most effective and dominant run teams, and if anything my OL only got better. And in the front seven as Stm pointed out I have great depth and mix of players who are situation specific type guys

 

As a team, including Special Teams, we did finish with the 9th highest grade among all teams. We fell from grace in our Defensive rankings to 17th overall. Although to our credit, we did allow the 10th least yards per play, and our 3rd worst TOP ranking could've inflated the numbers against us. I definitely agree about gaining and sustaining momentum in the Playoffs. Personally, between the top tier teams, it's always a crap shoot. Your point regarding Irvin should be taken into account. However, I don't believe that it can apply to Paul Kruger, as he had the 5th most snaps at his position, 1068 to be exact. So he doesn't qualify as a situational player. 

 

Oh, your Seattle team is outstanding. There's no doubt about it, and I'd never argue against this notion, as it's very evident. Lynch is a top tier RB, so his talent helps offset some of the issues up front. The addition of Watson bolsters the right side, for sure. Although the acquisition of Jeff Allen arguably does the exact opposite. That being said, on paper, I own one of the best OLs, one of the best run defending front sevens, and one of the most talented RBs corps. My overall depth in all three groups is terrific. With that in mind, in a simulation with no outside variables, I just have a very difficult time believing that either of these facets, nevermind all three, would falter against any team, especially one with questions in two of theirs. That's my only point. Given that we're on opposite sides of this contest, I'll understand if you don't agree.

[Clutch Ravens]

I'll take going out to the eventual Super Bowl winners after one off-season with the Cardinals.