Stm85's 2013 Mock Power Rankings and Playoff Predictions

[stm85]

NFC is stacked. Lol, so close but no playoffs... Bummer

 

It's unfair really. The 8-8 Redskins get in with most of their wins coming in divisional games against bad teams, but 3 very good 10-6 teams are left out. Arizona definitely benefited from coming in last this past season. They got 3 games against the last place NFC teams while the other teams got only 1. That pushed them ahead in the conference games tie-breaker. The Bears and 49ers were both top 10 teams on my list and either would have won the NFC East or AFC South with little difficulty. Such is life in the NFL unfortunately. You still did a good job with your team.

[Geving]

It's unfair really. The 8-8 Redskins get in with most of their wins coming in divisional games against bad teams, but 3 very good 10-6 teams are left out. The Bears and 49ers were both top 10 teams on my list and either would have won the NFC East or AFC South with little difficulty. Such is life in the NFL unfortunately. You still did a good job with your team.

Yup. Thanks, and great job on your rankings. I really enjoyed.

[Mt. Crushmore]

Who do you see me losing to? Just wondering.

[Clutch Ravens]

Pleased with my projections, to say the least.

 

Going from one of the worst Quarterback situations in living memory to the playoffs in one off-season makes me happy.

[GrimCoconut]

I think you did a terrific job and applaud the level of difficulty I'm sure you experienced while making this. I'm glad you included schedule. It has a major impact.

[Mt. Crushmore]

The good old division rivals facing off in the Wild Card Game.  Bills vs Patriots.

[Mt. Crushmore]

Good job STM.

[ravensdan]

Maybe I lost 2 games because if my udfa kicker. I'm sure Lindell will push this team over the edge.

[Mt. Crushmore]

Maybe I lost 2 games because if my udfa kicker. I'm sure Lindell will push this team over the edge.

 

There is a reason the Bills just drafted a K in the 6th...

[ravensdan]

There is a reason the Bills just drafted a K in the 6th...

He was 21/24 last yr 1/2 from 50+ not bad for buffalo

[Mt. Crushmore]

He was 21/24 last yr 1/2 from 50+ not bad for buffalo

He is a decent K but no more.

[stm85]

Who do you see me losing to? Just wondering.

 

Patriots, Ravens, Chiefs, Falcons, Dolphins, and an upset by Carolina

[stm85]

NFC Wildcard games

 

6. Atlanta @ 3. Green Bay:

This game has all the makings of a shootout. Aaron Rodgers and his incredibly deep group of pass catchers should test the Atlanta secondary. I don't think the Falcons have the horses in this matchup. Despite a top notch pair of safeties, the WR/TE group for the Pack is far too deep and with Samuel and Graham being the only reliable CBs, look for Green Bay to put up tons of yards through the air. Reggie Bush will also contribute in both the running and passing game. Atlanta doesn't have the pass rush to limit Rodgers either, so it will be up to Matt Ryan and company to try to outscore the Packers. Green Bay has a pretty good group of CBs and a pretty solid pass rush. Ryan, Jones, and White will find some success against them, but the Packer's defense won't bend as easily as Atlanta's. This one won't be that close as Green Bay is simply better on both sides of the ball. Packers 38 Falcons 24

 

5. Arizona @ 4. Washington:

Washington snuck in by winning a weak NFC East, while Arizona got in by winning a 5 way tiebreaker for the 2 wildcard spots, thanks in part to an easy conference schedule. Both are in though, and regardless of how they got here the better team will advance. The Redskins will need to get their pass rushing duo of Orakpo and Kerrigan going early and often to try to stymie the Stafford to Fitz passing attack.That will be easier said than done, though, against an improved line led by Jake Long. I also expect Ahmad Bradshaw to be able to find success against a so-so defensive interior. The Skins are in trouble if the pass rush can't get there because the secondary isn't great, so if Stafford has time to through the Cardinals could put up some serious points. Washington will have to win with the legs of RG3 and Alfred Morris. However, I expect the Cardinals stout front 3 to close up running lanes for Morris. Arizona's super-athletic LBs are kryptonite for a QB like Griffin and while he will bust out some plays it won't be enough. The young Cardinals team will shut down Washington's offensive attack and roll onto the next round. Cardinals 34 Redskins 13

 

AFC Wildcard Games

 

6. Buffalo @ 3. New England:

A pair of divisional rivals meet here for the chance to move on the final 8. Most season's this matchup wouldn't be a contest, but this Bills team was assembled with one thing in mind: beat Tom Brady. They certainly have the pieces to do that. An endless supply of pass rushers will live in the backfield and make Brady miserable all day, despite a very good line protecting him. If they can harass him, they will force mistakes. The secondary will benefit and make plays as it too is an excellent and opportunistic unit. Williams and Dareus must be dominant up front though, or else the Patriots will be able to win by pounding the rock against a very mediocre group of linebackers. I think they are up to the task. Brady will get his tight ends heavily involved, because the WRs will struggle. However, to win this game, Andy Dalton must make plays of his own. New England's secondary isn't great but neither is Buffalo's group of WRs. This game could come down to a big play or 2 by CJ Spiller, but that won't come easy against a stout front 7. This is a very difficult game to call but in the end I think the Bills pass rush will be the key in a very close game that will come down to just a play or 2, leading to a huge upset in round 1. Bills 23 Patriots 20

 

5. Kansas City @ 4. Tennessee:

This is my favorite 1st round matchup. Both of these teams were built in very similar ways and a winner will be very hard to determine. Look for both offenses to be frustrated here. Alex Smith will be under attack all game long. Despite a great pair of tackles in Roos and Stewart, Hali and Houston are a great group of outside rushers while Canty and Richardson will provide the pressure from the inside. On the opposite side, it will be no picnic for Schaub either. The Chiefs also have a fantastic line but the Titans have a very deep stable of rushers on the outside. Both secondaries are fantastic at covering and forcing turnovers. I don't expect either running attack to find much success either. The Chiefs will be able to shut down Williams their front 3, Lofton, and Johnson while the Titans group of Martin, Walker, and Devito, along with a very athletic group of linebackers, spells trouble for the speedy Jamaal Charles. This game will come down to which offense can make more big plays because consistently moving the ball isn't going to happen. In the end, I think the Chiefs have slightly more offensive firepower with Bowe and Cook capable of big plays and Jamaal Charles always capable of taking a screen pass the distance. The Titans have a nice up and coming group, but the Chiefs just have more proven weapons on offense, and that will lead them to a very narrow victory. Chiefs 16 Titans 13

 

Divisional Round: most likely tomorrow or Tuesday

5. Arizona @ 1. Seattle

3. Green Bay @ 2. New Orleans

6. Buffalo @ 1. Denver

5. Kansas City @ 2. Baltimore

[Dubs]

Fitz and Stafford new look Zona team has no chance vs the Seahawks! Love the updates I feel like I am simming a madden season!

[Sizzlebshu]

How are you determining these lol. Anyway AFC Championship game here I come. BALTIMOREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[-Truth-]

Definitely have to give you props on the degree of difficulty that goes into this process. This is probably one of the first things I'll do on Madden once it comes out.

[-Truth-]

Definitely have to give you props on the degree of difficulty that goes into this process. This is probably one of the first things I'll do on Madden once it comes out.

[stm85]

How are you determining these lol. Anyway AFC Championship game here I come. BALTIMOREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

 

Just my own analysis of how the teams match up with one another

[stm85]

Divisional Round

 

5. Arizona @ 1. Seattle

 

We start this round with a matchup between divisional rivals. The Cardinals will look to continue their fairy-tale season against the very stout Seahawks. The Cardinals feature a very athletic defense which will give Russell Wilson fits while a stout front 3 will frustrate Marshawn Lynch. However, Matt Stafford will have even more trouble moving the ball and Richard Sherman is one of the few CBs capable of shutting down Fitzgerald. This defense is far too deep up front for the improved OL to contain them. They will be in the backfield and force Stafford into making a key mistake or two, and that will make the difference in this game. Eventually Wilson will be able to deliver some scores with good field position and put this one out of reach as a fantastic season in the desert comes to an end. Seattle 24 Arizona 14

 

3. Green Bay @ 2. New Orleans

 

This could be one of the most exciting playoff games in recent memory. Both teams have elite QBs, fantastic, deep WR groups, and opportunistic defenses. Look for both Rodgers and Brees to put up a ton of points against solid, but not spectacular secondaries. This game could certainly come down to whoever has the ball last, but I see this game being decided in the trenches. Whoever can pressure the QB and force more mistakes is going to win this one. That team looks like the Saints. Their rebuilt line is very formidable and looks like it can contain the Packers' pass rush. On the other side, though, the Packers line is good, but not great, and the Saints have a very deep stable of pass rushers. Even Aaron Rodgers will make mistakes under intense pressure and that will make the difference in a very tight, high scoring affair. The Saints go marching on the NFC Title Game. New Orleans 41 Green Bay 34

 

6. Buffalo @ 1. Denver

 

Buffalo pulled off a huge upset last round and will look to do the same against the regular season's best team in Denver. The Broncos have a good line, but they will have a lot of problems against such a deep stable of pass rushers and Manning could struggle against such a good secondary. They will not be able to put points up like they are used to. However, the Bills have to score points to win too and that will be much more difficult than last week. The Broncos have a very tough interior DL and a very athletic group of LBs who will be able to contain CJ Spiller. Andy Dalton doesn't have the talent or supporting cast to move the ball consistently against this back 7. The Bills defense will keep it close but they just don't have the fire power to pull off another big time upset. Denver 19 Buffalo 10

 

5. Kansas City @ 2. Baltimore

 

Kansas City pulled out a close win on the road last week in a defensive struggle against the Titans and look to grind out another win against the defending Super Bowl champions. This looks to be another great game. The key for Baltimore will be to contain Hali and Houston because Flacco is not the same QB when pressured and Kansas City has one of the league's best secondaries. They will need to establish Ray Rice early and often to open up the play action pass against this attacking defense. It won't be easy against Derrick Johnson and Curtis Lofton, but the front 3 is above average but not great so it may be possible. I look for the Ravens to have moderate success on offense. When Kansas City has the ball they will need to attack Baltimore deep to exploit their weakness at safety. If Monroe can contain Suggs then Schaub will have time to find his guys. The Ravens don't have a ton of speed up front either so Charles will find room to run. They too will have moderate success on offense. In the end I expect the Ravens to pull this one out. M&T Bank Stadium is a very difficult place to play and Flacco is usually lights out at home. This will be a very tight game but I see Flacco leading a last second drive leading to a Justin Tucker FG that puts the Ravens on a flight to Denver. Kansas City's valiant effort to go from worst to first falls just short. Baltimore 20 Kansas City 17

 

Conference Championships: later this week

 

2. New Orleans @ 1. Seattle

2. Baltimore @ 1. Denver

[Sizzlebshu]

Divisional Round

 

5. Arizona @ 1. Seattle

 

We start this round with a matchup between divisional rivals. The Cardinals will look to continue their fairy-tale season against the very stout Seahawks. The Cardinals feature a very athletic defense which will give Russell Wilson fits while a stout front 3 will frustrate Marshawn Lynch. However, Matt Stafford will have even more trouble moving the ball and Richard Sherman is one of the few CBs capable of shutting down Fitzgerald. This defense is far too deep up front for the improved OL to contain them. They will be in the backfield and force Stafford into making a key mistake or two, and that will make the difference in this game. Eventually Wilson will be able to deliver some scores with good field position and put this one out of reach as a fantastic season in the desert comes to an end. Seattle 24 Arizona 14

 

3. Green Bay @ 2. New Orleans

 

This could be one of the most exciting playoff games in recent memory. Both teams have elite QBs, fantastic, deep WR groups, and opportunistic defenses. Look for both Rodgers and Brees to put up a ton of points against solid, but not spectacular secondaries. This game could certainly come down to whoever has the ball last, but I see this game being decided in the trenches. Whoever can pressure the QB and force more mistakes is going to win this one. That team looks like the Saints. Their rebuilt line is very formidable and looks like it can contain the Packers' pass rush. On the other side, though, the Packers line is good, but not great, and the Saints have a very deep stable of pass rushers. Even Aaron Rodgers will make mistakes under intense pressure and that will make the difference in a very tight, high scoring affair. The Saints go marching on the NFC Title Game. New Orleans 41 Green Bay 34

 

6. Buffalo @ 1. Denver

 

Buffalo pulled off a huge upset last round and will look to do the same against the regular season's best team in Denver. The Broncos have a good line, but they will have a lot of problems against such a deep stable of pass rushers and Manning could struggle against such a good secondary. They will not be able to put points up like they are used to. However, the Bills have to score points to win too and that will be much more difficult than last week. The Broncos have a very tough interior DL and a very athletic group of LBs who will be able to contain CJ Spiller. Andy Dalton doesn't have the talent or supporting cast to move the ball consistently against this back 7. The Bills defense will keep it close but they just don't have the fire power to pull off another big time upset. Denver 19 Buffalo 10

 

5. Kansas City @ 2. Baltimore

 

Kansas City pulled out an OT win on the road last week in a defensive struggle against the Titans and look to grind out another win against the defending Super Bowl champions. This looks to be another great game. The key for Baltimore will be to contain Hali and Houston because Flacco is not the same QB when pressured and Kansas City has one of the league's best secondaries. They will need to establish Ray Rice early and often to open up the play action pass against this attacking defense. It won't be easy against Derrick Johnson and Curtis Lofton, but the front 3 is above average but not great so it may be possible. I look for the Ravens to have moderate success on offense. When Kansas City has the ball they will need to attack Baltimore deep to exploit their weakness at safety. If Monroe can contain Suggs then Cassel will have time to find his guys. The Ravens don't have a ton of speed up front either so Charles will find room to run. They too will have moderate success on offense. In the end I expect the Ravens to pull this one out. M&T Bank Stadium is a very difficult place to play and Flacco is usually lights out at home. This will be a very tight game but I see Flacco leading a last second drive leading to a Justin Tucker FG that puts the Ravens on a flight to Denver. Kansas City's valiant effort to go from worst to first falls just short. Baltimore 20 Kansas City 17

 

Conference Championships: later this week

 

2. New Orleans @ 1. Seattle

2. Baltimore @ 1. Denver

Just figured Id throw out there you may have wanted to include the importance of Whitworth in blocking Hali and Houston. 

[Mt. Crushmore]

So original going with 1 vs 2 seeds for each championship :)

I wanted to see a Bills Cardinals Super Bowl.

[stm85]

Just figured Id throw out there you may have wanted to include the importance of Whitworth in blocking Hali and Houston. 

 

Whitworth vs Hali is a pretty even matchup but Houston vs Oher doesn't favor Baltimore at all. 

[stm85]

So original going with 1 vs 2 seeds for each championship :)

I wanted to see a Bills Cardinals Super Bowl.

 

I really thought about picking Green Bay and Kansas City but the Packers don't have the OL to stop the Saints' pass rush and I couldn't pick against Flacco at home in such an even matchup with the Chiefs.

[Sizzlebshu]

Whitworth vs Hali is a pretty even matchup but Houston vs Oher doesn't favor Baltimore at all. 

Still helps to have the best pass protecting LT in football on my team. Just saying surprised it didnt get a mention. Also if Oher is the biggest weakness on my line im perfectly fine with that. 

[-Truth-]

Whitworth vs Hali is a pretty even matchup but Houston vs Oher doesn't favor Baltimore at all. 

 

Houston would be licking his chops. Love that kid. One of my favorite players.

[stm85]

Houston would be licking his chops. Love that kid. One of my favorite players.

 

I was really disappointed that we didn't draft him as I was talking him up all the time in the Draft thread. Things worked out well with Torrey but I wish we could have traded up more in the 3rd to land him. I think he will be better than Hali soon, maybe even this year. 

[ravensdan]

The fact is buffalo Kansas City and Arizona are limited by mediocre qbs who will never win playoff games. They are decent regular season qbs only. Stafford dalton and Schaub are just too mediocre to go any further. I wouldn't have been shocked to see Green Bay upset the dream team saints.

[-Truth-]

I was really disappointed that we didn't draft him as I was talking him up all the time in the Draft thread. Things worked out well with Torrey but I wish we could have traded up more in the 3rd to land him. I think he will be better than Hali soon, maybe even this year.

You were as well? I'm glad to hear that. Good eye, my friend. I was defending him from members who were bringing up his performance against Jah Reid, and he became one of favorite prospects in the Draft opposite of Randall Cobb when I went to re-assess his tape after hearing the criticisms. His motor was questionable in Georgia, and is still inconsistent at times in Kansas City. But he had all the tools to be successful at the next level. And he's been an outstanding all-around OLB. I would've easily traded up for him.

[stm85]

The fact is buffalo Kansas City and Arizona are limited by mediocre qbs who will never win playoff games. They are decent regular season qbs only. Stafford dalton and Schaub are just too mediocre to go any further. I wouldn't have been shocked to see Green Bay upset the dream team saints.

 

Schaub has won a playoff game, I don't think he is as bad as people say. He's probably around the 12th best QB in the league and is good enough to win a title with a great team around him. He's certainly better than Dalton and Stafford (although Stafford has a much higher ceiling). 

[ravensdan]

Schaub has won a playoff game, I don't think he is as bad as people say. He's probably around the 12th best QB in the league and is good enough to win a title with a great team around him. He's certainly better than Dalton and Stafford (although Stafford has a much higher ceiling).

I would rank them
Schaub
Dalton
Stafford(I believe he would be considered a bust today w/o Calvin)

Schaub may be ok to best a wildcard team such as the brngals last year but I just can't see him taking the next step to beating the championship qbs.