Stm85's 2013 Mock Power Rankings and Playoff Predictions

[stm85]

8-5

 

8. Atlanta Falcons: Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. The Falcons are looking to take the next step this year. Ryan has great weapons with Jones, White, and Gonzalez and will be protected by a serviceable, but not spectacular offensive line. The latter group needs to stay healthy though, because the depth behind the starters is concerning.  The move to the 3-4 defense should be beneficial. There is a lot of young talent in their front 3 and their group of ILBs is young, talented, and intimidating. I do worry about their outside pass rush, as I'm not sure OLB is a natural fit for Biermann and Barwin, while talented, is not a top option. Samuel and Graham are decent starting options, but are not special, and there is little depth behind them. They are helped out, though, by a phenomenal safety duo of DeCoud and Moore. At the end of the day this team will challenge for the title but issues rushing the passer and in the secondary will see them fall just short again.

 

7. New England Patriots: As long as the Pats have Tom Brady they will always be a tough team to beat. He loses his favorite target in Wes Welker but Davone Bess should be an adequate replacement in the slot. Rookie WR Robert Woods is very pro-ready and is my early favorite for OROY. Gronkowski and Hernandez make a fantastic and dynamic duo at the TE position. The offensive line is very talented and should be fantastic in both pass protection and run blocking. The RBs stay the same as last year; a young group that will be effective at keeping defenses honest. The defense has seen a lot of improvement as well. Jones and Ninkovich should be a good pass rushing duo, but I'd like to see more help for Vince Wilfork on the interior. Spikes, Hightower, and Mayo are terrific group of LBs but there isn't a ton of depth behind them. I expect the secondary to be much improved. Landing DRC gives the Patriots a young stud to pair with their unproven players. If Dowling can stay healthy this could actually be a very good group. The safety group isn't anything special though. Brady and company look to have the makings of another team ready to have a great regular season but they are not the unbeatable squad we are used to. Weakness in the secondary and at WR as Brady gets older could keep them from winning it all. 

 

6. San Francisco 49ers: Despite missing a number of draft picks, this team is a very good one. Colin Kaepernick took the league by storm last year and could be even better the second time around. The backfield has a well balanced group of runners and will be aided by the most talented offensive line in the league. Crabtree and Davis are good weapons in the passing game and Hunter should provide an explosive element that wasn't there last year. The defense lacks depth in the DL behind Smith but he should stay a productive player. The LB unit is the league's best and the addition of Ogletree is just plain overkill. The secondary could have used another CB but really made no changes and it remains solid, but unspectacular. If Rogers declines it may be in trouble. In the end though, this team will play old school football and will be a tough out for any team in the playoffs. However, it's lack of depth keep it from being ranked higher despite its large amount of top level talent.

 

 

5.  Green Bay Packers: With the best QB in the game, the Packers will always be a tough out. This year Aaron Rodgers has tons of weapons. Wes Welker and Randall Cobb will star in the slot while Nelson and Jones will give defenses headaches outside. If Jermichael Finley can learn to catch this passing game will be unstoppable. Reggie Bush isn't the best lead back, but his pass catching skills complement this offense well. This line has gotten better with the additions of McKinnie and Koppen, while Sitton, Bulaga, and Lang are solid young players who are improving. The defense should also be better than last year. Ryan Pickett is getting older but Jerell Worthy looks like a solid player who could break into the starting lineup this year. Pairing Raji with a great young interior rusher like Jones is a great move and should elevate this defense. Clay Matthews gets some help with the additions of rookies Okafor and Montgomery. However, these guys don't project to be starters right away so Nick Perry will have to step his game up. Minter and Bishop are a decent duo inside but they aren't stars and will have an adjustment period due to being a rookie and missing all of last season, respectively. Adding Asomugha to the secondary was a great move and he could be a top option again if the team uses him correctly as an outside, man-to-man CB. Tramon Williams looks to have a bounceback season while Heyward was one of the best slot CBs in the NFL as a rookie. He looks to have a successful career ahead of him in that spot. Burnett and Rolle need to stay healthy at safety but if they do, the Packers have a good group. Outside of a few spots this is not a deep team, so the Pack need to stay healthy this year, but they have enough top talent to make a run at a title.

 

Tomorrow: the top 4 teams, standings, and playoff matchups

[stm85]

Top 4 teams

 

4. Baltimore Ravens: The defending champs have done well to fill their needs and will improve even after losing the greatest defensive player in NFL history to retirement. Joe Flacco and his cannon arm will lead the offense. The group of Smith, Boldin, and Jones are talented and complement each other well. Pitta and Dickson round out the group at TE and are effective players. Rice and Pierce might be the best 1-2 combo in the NFL at RB and FB Vonta Leach will open holes all day. The real key to the offense is the OL. Landing Whitworth is a big deal for this team. Flacco is a top 5 QB in the league when he has protection, and Whitworth finally gives him that. Outside of the unproven Gino Gradkowski, the rest of the line is manned by proven, high level talents. This should be one of the best groups in the league. This team has put resources into improving the DL and the result is a very deep unit. Ngata will lead a very talented and deep rotation that will give OLs fits. Suggs and Upshaw have some good depth behind him, although another pass rusher would be nice. Lee and Beason are solid starters, but more depth behind them would be nice. Same with Smith, Webb, and Graham. If one of them goes down this team is in trouble. Safety is going to be a problem. Pollard is great in the box but can't cover well and Brown isn't good enough to be a starter. This team will compete for the AFC crown but may not have the depth to make it through the season with a chance to win it all in the end.

 

 

3. New Orleans Saints: Talk about an explosive passing attack. Superstar Drew Brees has arguably the best group of WRs ever assembled. Bryant and Colston are top level starters and Alexander and Williams are no slouches either. Shorts was the #1 for Jacksonville last year but will be the 5th WR here. That isn't even including an elite TE in Jimmy Graham. Truth is probably very glad that the trade sending Graham to Kansas City was vetoed. The RB group isn't full of world beaters but Sproles is an excellent reciever out of the backfield and Wilson is very explosive. The offensive line looks like one of the best. The Smiths make a great pair of bookend tackles and all 3 interior players have pro-bowl potential. This is the best offense in the league, but the defense doesn't quite match up. The DL is solid enough with Fairley, Williams, and Jordan but there is very little depth behind these young players. At LB we have a solid group in the middle with Butler and Henderson. Both are solid young players with balanced games. Graham looks like a great fit as 3-4 OLB after breaking out last season, but I am less certain of Dunlap. He is a very large DE and doesn't project well at standing up and playing in space. He also has had a problem with injuries and consistency. Jones and Morgan are fantastic depth behind them and overall the pass rush will be tough to contain. The secondary could have problems. Vontae Davis is a legitimate #1 option but Greer and McCourty are not consistent options behind him, while the duo of Phillips (injuries) and Wilson (age) have some questions with little depth behind them. This is a very dangerous team that will compete for a championship.

 

2. Denver Broncos: The Broncos are all in this season after falling short in the playoffs last year. Peyton Manning leads an explosive offensive unit. Thomas and Decker are a great staring duo at WR but Vernon and Gibson aren't great options behind them; the starters will have to step up. Tamme and Casey are good options at TE though. Manning has a way of making decent players into stars. Michael Bush will pound the rock and Woodhead is a perfect fit for a Manning-led passing attack as a change of pace/receiving back. The line has a top LT in Clady and decent-to-solid options at the other spots. They need to keep Peyton upright because this unit will break down if he can't get passes off. On defense this group will be led by the front 7. Stealing Suh was a great move and he will provide the interior pass rush. Short looks to be one of the top DTs as a rookie and these two will make a great combo inside. Wolfe and Dumervil complement each other as a run stuffer and pass rusher, respectively, at DE. The linebacker unit is one of the best. There are only 3 staring spots but there are 4 pro-bowl caliber players here. Miller can do it all and will provide pressure, along with Wheeler, standing up. Brad Jones is a fairly complete ILB while Woodyard is a stud in coverage. The secondary is solid enough at safety, with young productive players in Moore and Barron. The CB unit has an aging but still solid Bailey and a deep group behind him. Very few teams can match the Broncos on either side of the ball and they look like a real championship contender. 

 

1. Seattle Seahawks: This team is downright frightening. They had few holes to fill in the offseason and could have basically brought back the same group, but they have actually improved a lot. Of course, this team was always going to be dangerous with Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, but now they have some real weapons at WR that will make the offense even more dynamic. Hartline is a great possession receiver and Patterson, while very raw, will be excellent at taking the top off of defenses and making big plays. The offensive line has a few weak spots, but with Okung and Unger manning the LT and C spots respectively, should be able to do an adequate job. The defense looks like it should be the best unit in the league as a whole. Kruger, Irvin, Clemons and company should provide a fantastic rotation rushing the passer while Mebane, Bryant, and superstar FA addition Melton will shut down the running game inside. New addition Boley at the WLB isn't a world-beater but he is a very good fit for this defense for his ability to track the ball carrier and play in coverage. He should fit very well with young studs Wagner and Wright. Not much needs to be said about the secondary, it is far and away the best in the league with all 4 starters looking like All-Pro talents. This is an incredibly complete team that should be a real contender to bring home Seattle's 1st Lombardi Trophy.

[ravensdan]

I agree with the top 4. Well done.

[-Truth-]

A good read, for sure. However, I'm not sure if E.J. Henderson is being confused with Erin Henderson, but Erin is only 26, and has been an elite run defender and an above average pass rusher over the past two seasons. The DE and DT position do have Rookies penciled in behind them. But Antonio Dixon was a top tier run defender in 2010, and was among the most productive run stopping DTs in 2012, on a very limited basis. He'll be a factor in the upcoming season. I understand the concerns about Dunlap, although I'll likely run a Nickle base, and he will rush 90%+ of the time. He was also arguably even better in 2011, so I personally don't see how the point of consistency applies outside of being able to stay on the field. I'd argue that the Defensive Line is better than simply solid enough, but I can't disagree with much else for the most part.

 

I do have a few a qualms about the secondary. Regarding McCourty, at just 25, 2 out of 3 seasons as a top tier performer should be more than enough to classify him as a consistent player. McCourty was targeted 68 times in 2012, allowing 33 receptions, 4 TDs, 5 INTs with 7 PDs and a QB rating of 59.1. He played 8 games at CB and 8 at Safety, and finished with the 5th highest grade of any Defensive Back. Greer's been an above average CB for the past 3 seasons, and will no longer be forced to face #1 WRs. I'd also strongly disagree about the depth behind Wilson and Phillips. I have Duke Williams among my reserves, who was a standout in Nevada, and will compete for a starting job in Buffalo. And I also have Isa Abdul-Quddus, who allowed 7 receptions on 16 targets last season, 0 TDs, 2 INTs with 6 PDs and a QB rating of 21.9. He finished with the 12th highest grade in coverage among all Safeties. My secondary certainly isn't short on depth. In fact, it's easily one of its strengths. Lastly, I strongly disagree with the concerns about injuries. You've been very adamant about enforcing the rule that prevents us from discounting retirements occurring after the beginning date when discussing Chris Gamble. That very same rule prevents us from accounting for anything occurring after the date, including injuries. Therefore, it would be hypocritical to argue against one while including the other. We can either account for both or neither.

[stm85]

A good read, for sure. However, I'm not sure if E.J. Henderson is being confused with Erin Henderson, but Erin is only 26, and has been an elite run defender and an above average pass rusher over the past two seasons. The DE and DT position do have Rookies penciled in behind them. But Antonio Dixon was a top tier run defender in 2010, and was among the most productive run stopping DTs in 2012, on a very limited basis. He'll be a factor in the upcoming season. I understand the concerns about Dunlap, although I'll likely run a Nickle base, and he will rush 90%+ of the time. He was also arguably even better in 2011, so I personally don't see how the point of consistency applies outside of being able to stay on the field. I'd argue that the Defensive Line is better than simply solid enough, but I can't disagree with much else for the most part.

 

I do have a few a qualms about the secondary. Regarding McCourty, at just 25, 2 out of 3 seasons as a top tier performer should be more than enough to classify him as a consistent player. McCourty was targeted 68 times in 2012, allowing 33 receptions, 4 TDs, 5 INTs with 7 PDs and a QB rating of 59.1. He played 8 games at CB and 8 at Safety, and finished with the 5th highest grade of any Defensive Back. Greer's been an above average CB for the past 3 seasons, and will no longer be forced to face #1 WRs. I'd also strongly disagree about the depth behind Wilson and Phillips. I have Duke Williams among my reserves, who was a standout in Nevada, and will compete for a starting job in Buffalo. And I also have Isa Abdul-Quddus, who allowed 7 receptions on 16 targets last season, 0 TDs, 2 INTs with 6 PDs and a QB rating of 21.9. He finished with the 12th highest grade in coverage among all Safeties. My secondary certainly isn't short on depth. In fact, it's easily one of its strengths. Lastly, I strongly disagree with the concerns about injuries. You've been very adamant about enforcing the rule that prevents us from discounting retirements occurring after the beginning date when discussing Chris Gamble. That very same rule prevents us from accounting for anything occurring after the date, including injuries. Therefore, it would be hypocritical to argue against one while including the other. We can either account for both or neither.

 

I obiviously don't have access to your advanced statistics so I can't argue some of the things you are saying. I feel as though the Saints, Broncos, and Seahawks represent a very clear 1st tier of teams and only the Ravens and Packers can even make the argument of joining it. You are right about Henderson, I will adjust that. We're splitting hairs at this point and even with all of your points considered I'd probably still have NO 3rd behind Denver and Seattle. The playoffs are all about matchups though, so that doesn't mean I won't crown your team the winner.

 

I don't see retirements and injuries the same way. If an offseason injury occurs after the mock I won't consider it, just like retired players, but I think injury prone players need to be recognized. It doesn't mean I will discount that player, but I think it needs to be considered. Phillips is injured often and you can't expect him to play 16 games. That doesn't mean I'm saying he will be on the IR early, but I do take into consideration the fact that he will miss a game or two into the standings. It doesn't really affect your team much, they are still the #3 team.

[ravensdan]

The top 5 are good. I strongly disagree with the 49ers at six. I can also make an argument the pats should be lower than 7. Houston and giants too high. Browns and steelers too low. IMO

[-Truth-]

I obiviously don't have access to your advanced statistics so I can't argue some of the things you are saying. I feel as though the Saints, Broncos, and Seahawks represent a very clear 1st tier of teams and only the Ravens and Packers can even make the argument of joining it. You are right about Henderson, I will adjust that. We're splitting hairs at this point and even with all of your points considered I'd probably still have NO 3rd behind Denver and Seattle. The playoffs are all about matchups though, so that doesn't mean I won't crown your team the winner.
 
I don't see retirements and injuries the same way. If an offseason injury occurs after the mock I won't consider it, just like retired players, but I think injury prone players need to be recognized. It doesn't mean I will discount that player, but I think it needs to be considered. Phillips is injured often and you can't expect him to play 16 games. That doesn't mean I'm saying he will be on the IR early, but I do take into consideration the fact that he will miss a game or two into the standings. It doesn't really affect your team much, they are still the #3 team.

 

 

It's a solid point, so there's no argument there. Definitely agree about the tiers. Thank you for recognizing the Henderson mix-up. And I concur on the point about the Playoffs.

 

However, what you've stated is your personal interpretation of the rule. The rule clearly states that we are unable to account for anything after the date. That means that if a player is injured after the due date, it means nothing toward our Mock. Chris Gamble and Matt Birk retired because of their injuries. That aspect of it is being completely overlooked because of this rule. If we account for injuries in any form or fashion, then they wouldn't be able to play a down in an NFL uniform, which clearly isn't the case. It's the sole reason for why nobody batted an eye to the signing of Bob Sanders. I've had my fair share of issues with it, and have spoken out against it numerous times. But if we're going to enforce the rule, we're enforcing it wholeheartedly.

[stm85]

It's a solid point, so there's no argument there. Definitely agree about the tiers. Thank you for recognizing the Henderson mix-up. And I concur on the point about the Playoffs.

 

However, what you've stated is your personal interpretation of the rule. The rule clearly states that we are unable to account for anything after the date. That means that if a player is injured after the due date, it means nothing toward our Mock. Chris Gamble and Matt Birk retired because of their injuries. That aspect of it is being completely overlooked because of this rule. Otherwise, they wouldn't be able to play a down in an NFL uniform. It's the sole reason for why nobody batted an eye to the signing of Bob Sanders. I've had my fair share of issues with it, and have spoken out against it numerous times. But if we're going to enforce the rule, we're enforcing it wholeheartedly.

 

I'm not accounting for injuries that occurred after the start of the mock but rather am accounting for a player's past history with injuries. To me there is a big difference. If that wasn't taken into account then a player like Darren McFadden, for example, would have twice the value in our mock than he does.

[-Truth-]

I'm not accounting for injuries that occurred after the start of the mock but rather am accounting for a player's past history with injuries. To me there is a big difference. If that wasn't taken into account then a player like Darren McFadden, for example, would have twice the value in our mock than he does.

 

And those injury prone players can only be injured after the agreed upon deadline. Therefore, if a player either with a history or without one injuries themselves at any point in the future, it won't count towards our Mock, making their history irrelevant within our process because of this rule. Thus your misinterpretation of the rule is clearly defying it.

[GrimCoconut]

It's a solid point, so there's no argument there. Definitely agree about the tiers. Thank you for recognizing the Henderson mix-up. And I concur on the point about the Playoffs.

 

However, what you've stated is your personal interpretation of the rule. The rule clearly states that we are unable to account for anything after the date. That means that if a player is injured after the due date, it means nothing toward our Mock. Chris Gamble and Matt Birk retired because of their injuries. That aspect of it is being completely overlooked because of this rule. Otherwise, they wouldn't be able to play a down in an NFL uniform. It's the sole reason for why nobody batted an eye to the signing of Bob Sanders. I've had my fair share of issues with it, and have spoken out against it numerous times. But if we're going to enforce the rule, we're enforcing it wholeheartedly.

Matt Birk didn't retire due to injuries. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000143664/article/baltimore-ravens-matt-birk-announces-retirement

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1562559-is-chris-gamble-making-a-huge-mistake-walking-away-from-football

 

And it's unknown whether Gamble retired due to injuries or not. I'm not arguing one way or the other, but I'm not sure about that part of your argument. I could easily be wrong, though. I don't follow other teams as close as the Ravens, which I really follow heavily. So, if I'm wrong then my bad. Just adding this in here in case.

[-Truth-]

Matt Birk didn't retire due to injuries. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000143664/article/baltimore-ravens-matt-birk-announces-retirement

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1562559-is-chris-gamble-making-a-huge-mistake-walking-away-from-football

 

And it's unknown whether Gamble retired due to injuries or not. I'm not arguing one way or the other, but I'm not sure about that part of your argument. I could easily be wrong, though. I don't follow other teams as close as the Ravens, which I really follow heavily. So, if I'm wrong then my bad. Just adding this in here in case.

 

Matt Birk's struggled with staying healthy over the last several years. Those health concerns were due in part to his age, but they were still very much present. You're referencing an article from Bleacherreport.com, one of the least reputable sources. It also that speculates that his retirement was derived from injury concerns. Rotoworld.com does exactly the same, noting that this was an indication of season-ending injury being worse than anticipated.

[GrimCoconut]

Matt Birk's struggled with staying healthy over the last several years. Those health concerns were due in part to his age, but they were still very much present. You're referencing an article from Bleacherreport, one of the least reputable sources. It also that speculates that his retirement was derived from injury concerns. Rotoworld.com does exactly the same, noting that this was an indication of season-ending injury being worse than anticipated.

Oh, I know. I referenced BleacherReport on purpose. Believe me, I completely know how unreliable they are. I used that more as a source towards your argument to make it unbiased more than anything. I wasn't really & still am not trying to debate it. It sure looks like it could've been related to the shoulder injury. Unfortunately, he didn't say so it's purely speculative at this time. 

 

And Birk did struggle, but I honestly thought he looked fantastic this year. How did he grade out per PFF? I'm honestly really curious. 

[stm85]

And those injury prone players can only be injured after the agreed upon deadline. Therefore, if a player either with a history or without one injuries themselves at any point in the future, it won't count towards our Mock, making their history irrelevant within our process because of this rule. Thus your misinterpretation of the rule is clearly defying it.

 

I don't view it as remotely similar to the retired player rule. A retirement is a decision and a roster move that doesn't count when it occurs after a mock. An injury can occur at any point in the season and it is a fact that some players are more prone to injury than others. That is the only thing that I am considering. You are blowing this out of proportion as it has very little bearing on the overall ranking of a team.

[GrimCoconut]

Personally, FWIW, I think injuries & arrests should count towards the mock. After all, injury-prone players will be injury-prone. I understand the double-standard that Truth & others (there are others who dislike it as well) feel towards this, but here's my opinion on the matter: 

 

Retirements are different in that a player isn't going to just up and retire after being traded to a team--that rarely happens. If it does, the trade is void. Now, with the way we have done trades here, and the volume of them, it would be really challenging to undo a trade. After all, that trade could then be later void due to the retirement. For instance, if I traded Matt Birk then the next day he retires, but I already traded the pick acquired for Birk for Drew Brees, where the Saints used that pick to trade for Tom Brady. In fact, that scenario I just laid out is exactly what happened where I traded for Birk, the pick traded was then sent to Chicago who sent it to I believe San Diego, meanwhile the Ravens sent the pick to the Bengals. 

 

That means four teams would have a trade voided, which would be an extreme headache.

 

When it comes to injuries, arrests, etc--those things are entirely unpredictable. They're not a decision but luck or rather bad luck. That's my opinion on the matter.

[-Truth-]

I don't view it as remotely similar to the retired player rule. A retirement is a decision and a roster move that doesn't count when it occurs after a mock. An injury can occur at any point in the season and it is a fact that some players are more prone to injury than others. That is the only thing that I am considering. You are blowing this out of proportion as it has very little bearing on the overall ranking of a team.

 

This argument pertains little towards my overall ranking, if any. I'm merely voicing my significant disdain for seeing rules bent to fit certain scenarios and not others due to either blatant or incidental misrepresentations. I made an argument against this rule several months ago pertaining specifically to injuries, and was told repeatedly that injuries do not count towards our Mock. This would instantaneously make the injury prone label completely irrelevant, as all injuries are discounted after the date wholeheartedly. It was poorly thought out, in my opinion. But that's the rule. And if it's being enforced, then we're not picking and choosing.

[stm85]

This argument pertains little towards my overall ranking, if any. I'm merely voicing my significant disdain for seeing rules bent to fit certain scenarios and not others due to either blatant or incidental misrepresentations. I made an argument against this rule several months ago pertaining specifically to injuries, and was told repeatedly that injuries do not count towards our Mock. This would instantaneously make the injury prone label completely irrelevant, as all injuries are discounted after the date wholeheartedly. It was poorly thought out, in my opinion. But that's the rule. And if it's being enforced, then we're not picking and choosing.

 

 

I am not counting specific injuries or arrests. I am projecting the season and the fact that a player has a history of injuries has to play a role in doing so. Nothing more, nothing less.

[-Truth-]

I am not counting specific injuries or arrests. I am projecting the season and the fact that a player has a history of injuries has to play a role in doing so. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Given that we apparently are disallowing future injuries because of this rule, the injury history has no relevance or meaning in this Mock.

[-Truth-]

Oh, I know. I referenced BleacherReport on purpose. Believe me, I completely know how unreliable they are. I used that more as a source towards your argument to make it unbiased more than anything. I wasn't really & still am not trying to debate it. It sure looks like it could've been related to the shoulder injury. Unfortunately, he didn't say so it's purely speculative at this time. 

 

And Birk did struggle, but I honestly thought he looked fantastic this year. How did he grade out per PFF? I'm honestly really curious. 

 

It is speculatory, but it's the most sensible reason at this point.

 

Birk graded finished with a +5.6, grading out as the 20th best Center.

[stm85]

Given that we apparently are disallowing future injuries because of this rule, the injury history has no relevance or meaning in this Mock.

 

Who said anything about disallowing future injuries in our projections? We are just discounting what has already happened after the start date, not saying that we can't project based on history.

[-Truth-]

Who said anything about disallowing future injuries in our projections? We are just discounting what has already happened after the start date, not saying that we can't project based on history.

 

The injuries that are outcomes of the injury history can only occur after the start date, meaning that they have to discounted.

[stm85]

The injuries that are outcomes of the injury history can only occur after the start date, meaning that they have to discounted.

 

This argument is going in a circle and I'm done with it. We disagree on the interpretation of the rule clearly.

[Dubs]

I wholeheartedly agree with your rankings...

 

good choices!

[stm85]

I wholeheartedly agree with your rankings...

 

good choices!

 

I'm not surprised lol

[Sizzlebshu]

Top 4 teams

 

4. Baltimore Ravens: The defending champs have done well to fill their needs and will improve even after losing the greatest defensive player in NFL history to retirement. Joe Flacco and his cannon arm will lead the offense. The group of Smith, Boldin, and Jones are talented and complement each other well. Pitta and Dickson round out the group at TE and are effective players. Rice and Pierce might be the best 1-2 combo in the NFL at RB and FB Vonta Leach will open holes all day. The real key to the offense is the OL. Landing Whitworth is a big deal for this team. Flacco is a top 5 QB in the league when he has protection, and Whitworth finally gives him that. Outside of the unproven Gino Gradkowski, the rest of the line is manned by proven, high level talents. This should be one of the best groups in the league. This team has put resources into improving the DL and the result is a very deep unit. Ngata will lead a very talented and deep rotation that will give OLs fits. Suggs and Upshaw have some good depth behind him, although another pass rusher would be nice. Lee and Beason are solid starters, but more depth behind them would be nice. Same with Smith, Webb, and Graham. If one of them goes down this team is in trouble. Safety is going to be a problem. Pollard is great in the box but can't cover well and Brown isn't good enough to be a starter. This team will compete for the AFC crown but may not have the depth to make it through the season with a chance to win it all in the end.

 

 

3. New Orleans Saints: Talk about an explosive passing attack. Superstar Drew Brees has arguably the best group of WRs ever assembled. Bryant and Colston are top level starters and Alexander and Williams are no slouches either. Shorts was the #1 for Jacksonville last year but will be the 5th WR here. That isn't even including an elite TE in Jimmy Graham. Truth is probably very glad that the trade sending Graham to Kansas City was vetoed. The RB group isn't full of world beaters but Sproles is an excellent reciever out of the backfield and Wilson is very explosive. The offensive line looks like one of the best. The Smiths make a great pair of bookend tackles and all 3 interior players have pro-bowl potential. This is the best offense in the league, but the defense doesn't quite match up. The DL is solid enough with Fairley, Williams, and Jordan but there is very little depth behind these young players. At LB we have a solid group in the middle with Butler and Henderson. Both are solid young players with balanced games. Graham looks like a great fit as 3-4 OLB after breaking out last season, but I am less certain of Dunlap. He is a very large DE and doesn't project well at standing up and playing in space. He also has had a problem with injuries and consistency. Jones and Morgan are fantastic depth behind them and overall the pass rush will be tough to contain. The secondary could have problems. Vontae Davis is a legitimate #1 option but Greer and McCourty are not consistent options behind him, while the duo of Phillips (injuries) and Wilson (age) have some questions with little depth behind them. This is a very dangerous team that will compete for a championship.

 

2. Denver Broncos: The Broncos are all in this season after falling short in the playoffs last year. Peyton Manning leads an explosive offensive unit. Thomas and Decker are a great staring duo at WR but Vernon and Gibson aren't great options behind them; the starters will have to step up. Tamme and Casey are good options at TE though. Manning has a way of making decent players into stars. Michael Bush will pound the rock and Woodhead is a perfect fit for a Manning-led passing attack as a change of pace/receiving back. The line has a top LT in Clady and decent-to-solid options at the other spots. They need to keep Peyton upright because this unit will break down if he can't get passes off. On defense this group will be led by the front 7. Stealing Suh was a great move and he will provide the interior pass rush. Short looks to be one of the top DTs as a rookie and these two will make a great combo inside. Wolfe and Dumervil complement each other as a run stuffer and pass rusher, respectively, at DE. The linebacker unit is one of the best. There are only 3 staring spots but there are 4 pro-bowl caliber players here. Miller can do it all and will provide pressure, along with Wheeler, standing up. Brad Jones is a fairly complete ILB while Woodyard is a stud in coverage. The secondary is solid enough at safety, with young productive players in Moore and Barron. The CB unit has an aging but still solid Bailey and a deep group behind him. Very few teams can match the Broncos on either side of the ball and they look like a real championship contender. 

 

1. Seattle Seahawks: This team is downright frightening. They had few holes to fill in the offseason and could have basically brought back the same group, but they have actually improved a lot. Of course, this team was always going to be dangerous with Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, but now they have some real weapons at WR that will make the offense even more dynamic. Hartline is a great possession receiver and Patterson, while very raw, will be excellent at taking the top off of defenses and making big plays. The offensive line has a few weak spots, but with Okung and Unger manning the LT and C spots respectively, should be able to do an adequate job. The defense looks like it should be the best unit in the league as a whole. Kruger, Irvin, Clemons and company should provide a fantastic rotation rushing the passer while Mebane, Bryant, and superstar FA addition Melton will shut down the running game inside. New addition Boley at the WLB isn't a world-beater but he is a very good fit for this defense for his ability to track the ball carrier and play in coverage. He should fit very well with young studs Wagner and Wright. Not much needs to be said about the secondary, it is far and away the best in the league with all 4 starters looking like All-Pro talents. This is an incredibly complete team that should be a real contender to bring home Seattle's 1st Lombardi Trophy.

 

A few things. I do have depth behind Beason and Lee. Chase Thomas and Knott are behind them in addition to players already there. They also provide depth at olb as well. I also did manage to pick up a few pass rushers, but they are on the d line rather than at olb. Probably didnt notice since im lazy with the depth chart. Also I did of course pick up depth at center/guard. 

[stm85]

A few things. I do have depth behind Beason and Lee. Chase Thomas and Knott are behind them in addition to players already there. They also provide depth at olb as well. I also did manage to pick up a few pass rushers, but they are on the d line rather than at olb. Probably didnt notice since im lazy with the depth chart. Also I did of course pick up depth at center/guard. 

 

I didn't see those pickups. I still think I have your team slotted correctly. You might be higher if you had gotten Dumervil like in real life.

[Sizzlebshu]

I didn't see those pickups. I still think I have your team slotted correctly. You might be higher if you had gotten Dumervil like in real life.

I have no disagreement about the slot. Thats fine. Im just pointing out several things that are inaccurate in your summation

[stm85]

Standings:

I actually picked game-by-game to come up with these records. The AFC West, NFC North, and NFC West benefited the most from easy schedules as a whole, while the AFC North and NFC East had very difficult schedules.

AFC East:
1. Patriots 12-4
2. Bills 10-6
3. Dolphins 7-9
4. Jets 3-13

AFC North:
1. Ravens 12-4
2. Steelers 7-9
3. Bengals 7-9
4. Browns 5-11

AFC South:
1. Titans 11-5
2. Texans 7-9
3. Jaguars 3-13
4. Colts 2-14

AFC West:
1. Broncos 15-1
2. Chiefs 11-5
3. Chargers 5-11
4. Raiders 3-13

NFC East:
1. Redskins 8-8
2. Giants 6-10
3. Eagles 6-10
4. Cowboys 3-13

NFC North:
1. Packers 13-3
2. Bears 10-6
3. Vikings 10-6
4. Lions 5-11

NFC South:
1. Saints 13-3
2. Falcons 10-6
3. Buccaneers 7-9
4. Panthers 5-11

NFC West:
1. Seahawks 14-2
2. Cardinals 10-6
3. 49ers 10-6
4. Rams 6-10

This means there is a 5-way tie for the 2 NFC Wildcard spots. To settle the 1st spot, you must eliminated all but the best team from each division. This puts Atlanta through as there to the next part of the tiebreaker. The Cardinals are also through their 4-2 division record beats the 49er's record of 3-3. Minnesota and Chicago both have a divisional record of 3-3. The Bears are through on their common opponents record as Minnesota dropped a game to the Giants that Chicago did not. The tiebreaker between these 3 teams is conference record. The Bears went 7-5, the Falcons were 7-5, while the Cardinals were 8-4, giving Arizona the first wildcard spot. To determine the second, the process is repeated with Chicago, Atlanta, and San Francisco. Sorry Minnesota, a great season but no playoffs this year. San Francisco went 6-6 in conference so they are eliminated as well. The last spot comes down to Chicago and Atlanta. This is determined by common opponents, in this case the Saints, Rams, Packers, and Redskins. The Bears were 2-3 against this group while Atlanta was 3-2, giving Atlanta the final playoff spot. Here are the matchups:

AFC:

5. Chiefs @ 4. Titans
6. Bills @ 3. Patriots
TBA @ 1. Broncos
TBA @ 2. Ravens

NFC:

5. Cardinals @ 4. Redskins
6. Falcons @ 3. Packers
TBA @ 1. Seahawks
TBA @ 2. Saints

As you can see the highest ranked team doesn't necessarily make it in. In fact, my #6, and #10 teams all failed to qualify. Schedules are important and tie breakers are random. I will post the wildcard round results and possibly divisional results tomorrow.

EDIT: I made a mistake with common opponents for the last wildcard. ATL was 3-2, Chicago was 2-3. Therefore the Falcons are the 6 seed, not Chicago.

[ravensdan]

Really 7-9? Ouch

[stm85]

Really 7-9? Ouch

 

Tough schedule man. I think your team is better than some that had a better record but it's just how things ended up shaking out. Some of your toss up games were on the road and the NFC North is a very tough division; it had 3 teams with 10+ wins. I still like your work in getting the Steelers younger, I just think your group is 1 year away.

[Geving]

NFC is stacked. Lol, so close but no playoffs... Bummer