2008 Team Efficiency Ratings

[Ravnet]

I'm not sure how much I buy into pure statistical analysis of football, but this site has us second in the league right now. New York is number one, Tennessee is right behind us at third overall, Arizona holds down the fourth spot, and Pittsburgh rounds out the top five.

I'm going to have to look into this, but they rank teams according to a formula called Weighted Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Directly from the site, it says that Weighted DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team is playing right now.

This is somewhat interesting, but obviously flawed. I've never, ever liked looking into football stats too much, as they are often misleading, but I was fairly bored and was looking at ExtremeSkins when I found this. Again, it's worth a look, but don't put too much stock into this type of stuff.

[url="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff"]http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff[/url]

[PuRock]

[quote name='Ravnet' post='95229' date='Nov 26 2008, 01:22 PM']I'm not sure how much I buy into pure statistical analysis of football, but this site has us second in the league right now. New York is number one, Tennessee is right behind us at third overall, Philadelphia ironically holds down the fourth spot, and Pittsburgh rounds out the top five.

I'm going to have to look into this, but they rank teams according to a formula called Weighted Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Directly from the site, it says that Weighted DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team is playing right now.

This is somewhat interesting, but obviously flawed. I've never, ever liked looking into football stats too much, as they are often misleading, but I was fairly bored and was looking at ExtremeSkins when I found this. Again, it's worth a look, but don't put too much stock into this type of stuff.

[url="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff"]http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff[/url][/quote]

That's like a example from my Statistics class back when I was in college! But I do find it interesting. I actually that is a better measurement than YPG by far. It accounts for so much more than yards allowed. Very interesting.

[Ravnet]

[quote name='PuRock' post='95235' date='Nov 26 2008, 01:40 PM']That's like a example from my Statistics class back when I was in college! But I do find it interesting. I actually that is a better measurement that YPG by far. It accounts for so much more than yards allowed. Very interesting.[/quote]

Right, it's similar to net statistics like VORP in baseball, but it's hard to take stats too seriously in football because units are so interdependent.

[#1 D]

[quote name='Ravnet' post='95229' date='Nov 26 2008, 01:22 PM']I'm not sure how much I buy into pure statistical analysis of football, but this site has us second in the league right now. New York is number one, Tennessee is right behind us at third overall, Philadelphia ironically holds down the fourth spot, and Pittsburgh rounds out the top five.

I'm going to have to look into this, but they rank teams according to a formula called Weighted Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Directly from the site, it says that Weighted DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team is playing right now.

This is somewhat interesting, but obviously flawed. I've never, ever liked looking into football stats too much, as they are often misleading, but I was fairly bored and was looking at ExtremeSkins when I found this. Again, it's worth a look, but don't put too much stock into this type of stuff.

[url="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff"]http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff[/url][/quote]
hmm good to know, the ravens are efficient! cool

[svt2nv04]

Ravnet,

Arizona is 4th, Pittsburgh 5th, Philadelphia 6th.

[Black&Purple]

I always found it to be funny the #1 offense may have the most yards, but not be #1 in points (Offensive points..) or TDs, it makes no sense. Just like a team may have the least YPG against them and be the #1 Defense, yet another team may have less TDs, or points against them.

Either way, it's definitely bogus considering the eagles are #4....

[svt2nv04]

[quote name='Black&Purple' post='95351' date='Nov 26 2008, 07:10 PM']I always found it to be funny the #1 offense may have the most yards, but not be #1 in points (Offensive points..) or TDs, it makes no sense. Just like a team may have the least YPG against them and be the #1 Defense, yet another team may have less TDs, or points against them.

Either way, it's definitely bogus considering the eagles are #4....[/quote]

How does it not make sense? A team can have a lot of yards but not end up scoring on drives. Lets say you start a drive at the 20 yard line on every drive. The team makes it to the 90 yard line then turns the ball over due to a fumble or interception. That's putting up yards but not scoring TDs. Or maybe that team doesn't convert on 3rd downs on a number of drives and ends up with a FG, that means only 3 points instead of 6, etc.

BTW, I mentioned it in my previous post, the Eagles are not 4th, they're 6th.

[Ravnet]

[quote name='svt2nv04' post='95250' date='Nov 26 2008, 02:26 PM']Ravnet,

Arizona is 4th, Pittsburgh 5th, Philadelphia 6th.[/quote]

Huh?

1 NYG
2 BAL
3 TEN
4 PHI
5 PIT
6 ARI

[Ravnet]

Ah, I see, you're looking at the weighted DVOA. I'll fix that as it is more indicative than the total DVOA.

And to address the point made by Black&Purple, it pretty much comes down to red zone efficiency. A team can rack up the yards and drive down the field, but unless they protect the ball and/or convert in the red zone, their big numbers are meaningless.