In Ozzie We Trust (The Ravens Free Agency Thread)

[beanfigger]

I'm not sure anyone offers anything more than a year right now.  He's got a pretty serious injury that has some implications on his career.  While it may not end his career, it can certainly hurt his route running, speed, confidence, etc.  As we go along and if his recovery is going well, a multi-year deal back on the table.  Based on what we know now, however, it would be a very bad move to give him more than a year.

 

It's not Pitta gambling, it would be a team at this point.  Even if he does have multi-year offers, he'd probably be better off signing a one year deal to regain value.  Whatever multi-year offer he may get would most likely be pretty small.

 

I'm not talking about us giving him multiple years right now.  I agree we have to monitor his recovery.  If he recovers, as most seem to expect him to, I think he we surely look for multiple years.  It is never a gamble for the teams in the NFL because they can cut a player whenever they want.  I understand the thought that he might want a one year to deal to prove his worth, just look what happened this year when he was going into the year attempting to do just that.  It is a much bigger gamble for him to risk a one year, prove it deal than it is for teams to give him multiple years.  Way more bad can happen than good in this league for players attempting to prove themselves.  I'm confident that he gets at least someone to give him a longer offer, and I think it serves his best interests to take it.  It's the same reason so many players hold out when they are going into the last year of their contract.  They know they risk too much playing it out, and they want more years on their deal.

[rmw10]

I'm not talking about us giving him multiple years right now.  I agree we have to monitor his recovery.  If he recovers, as most seem to expect him to, I think he we surely look for multiple years.  It is never a gamble for the teams in the NFL because they can cut a player whenever they want.  I understand the thought that he might want a one year to deal to prove his worth, just look what happened this year when he was going into the year attempting to do just that.  It is a much bigger gamble for him to risk a one year, prove it deal than it is for teams to give him multiple years.  Way more bad can happen than good in this league for players attempting to prove themselves.  I'm confident that he gets at least someone to give him a longer offer, and I think it serves his best interests to take it.  It's the same reason so many players hold out when they are going into the last year of their contract.  They know they risk too much playing it out, and they want more years on their deal.

 

But with Pitta's injury, no one is going to give him that much.  It would be a low value deal until he's proven himself.  I think that a team would be stupid to offer him something like 3 years, $15M, just to throw out a number.  I think a multi-year deal for Pitta would be something more along the lines of $2 years, $6M with incentives.  It's a risk for a team to throw money at someone with such a serious injury.  Pitta can show he's recovered in workouts as much as he wants, but until a team sees him on the field performing, they aren't going to give him anything more.

 

The bolded is what Pitta wants.  This is more about the what the team wants than Pitta.

[beanfigger]

But with Pitta's injury, no one is going to give him that much.  It would be a low value deal until he's proven himself.  I think that a team would be stupid to offer him something like 3 years, $15M, just to throw out a number.  I think a multi-year deal for Pitta would be something more along the lines of $2 years, $6M with incentives.  It's a risk for a team to throw money at someone with such a serious injury.  Pitta can show he's recovered in workouts as much as he wants, but until a team sees him on the field performing, they aren't going to give him anything more.

 

The bolded is what Pitta wants.  This is more about the what the team wants than Pitta.

 

I said many times that I agree that a one year deal is better for us.  I just disagree that Pitta won't find any multiple-year deal offers next offseason, and I disagree that it is in his best interest to sign a one year deal.  Those two things, combined, lead me to believe he signs a multiple year contract.  You're right, he won't average $5million/year, but what are the odds he ever will again.  If he does sign a one year deal and plays tremendously, he will then be looking for his (first) "big" deal at the age of 30.  It is much more likely he plays at the level he's already played, or worse, which means it is very unlikely he gets a $15million deal at age 30, anyway.  Or he could get hurt again and never get another offer at all.  He will look for multiple years, and I would bet he gets them from some team.  I hope it's us, and we'll have the best information on how his rehab goes, so we'll be in the best shape to determine his value.

[Sami84]

He came out of college too late. 25 years old. He was always risking a lot as 1 big injury early on and boom, where has the time gone.

[rmw10]

I said many times that I agree that a one year deal is better for us.  I just disagree that Pitta won't find any multiple-year deal offers next offseason, and I disagree that it is in his best interest to sign a one year deal.  Those two things, combined, lead me to believe he signs a multiple year contract.  You're right, he won't average $5million/year, but what are the odds he ever will again.  If he does sign a one year deal and plays tremendously, he will then be looking for his (first) "big" deal at the age of 30.  It is much more likely he plays at the level he's already played, or worse, which means it is very unlikely he gets a $15million deal at age 30, anyway.  Or he could get hurt again and never get another offer at all.  He will look for multiple years, and I would bet he gets them from some team.  I hope it's us, and we'll have the best information on how his rehab goes, so we'll be in the best shape to determine his value.

 

The only way Pitta signs a multi-year deal is if a large portion of the total is guaranteed money.  Otherwise, it makes much more sense for him to sign a 1 year deal.  He could perform very well.  It's a gamble, but one worth taking when you're talking 1 year at $3M or 2 years at $6M.  Again, just to throw out a number.  Even at 30, he would be able to without a doubt find a bigger contract than $3M a year.  It just won't be that 4 or 5 year deal that he could've gotten had he not been injured.

 

The guarantee is they key here.  No one is going to offer him tons of guaranteed money.  It's going to be very low.  If I'm Pitta, I take my chances on a 1 year deal and hope to secure $5-8M guaranteed on the next deal.  If Pitta signs a 2 year deal, he could perform very well and be stuck making much less than he could've on the open market.  If he signs a 2 year deal and performs poorly, whatever that team is will cut him and it will essentially be a 1 year deal anyway.

 

Of course, this is all pure speculation.  I think that even if he recovers really well, no team is going to give him a multi-year deal that does any better than a 1 year deal would do.  He may very well get multi-year deal offers, not disputing that.  The value of those deals won't be all that great, though.

[gabefergy]

The only way Pitta signs a multi-year deal is if a large portion of the total is guaranteed money.  Otherwise, it makes much more sense for him to sign a 1 year deal.  He could perform very well.  It's a gamble, but one worth taking when you're talking 1 year at $3M or 2 years at $6M.  Again, just to throw out a number.  Even at 30, he would be able to without a doubt find a bigger contract than $3M a year.  It just won't be that 4 or 5 year deal that he could've gotten had he not been injured.

 

The guarantee is they key here.  No one is going to offer him tons of guaranteed money.  It's going to be very low.  If I'm Pitta, I take my chances on a 1 year deal and hope to secure $5-8M guaranteed on the next deal.  If Pitta signs a 2 year deal, he could perform very well and be stuck making much less than he could've on the open market.  If he signs a 2 year deal and performs poorly, whatever that team is will cut him and it will essentially be a 1 year deal anyway.

 

Of course, this is all pure speculation.  I think that even if he recovers really well, no team is going to give him a multi-year deal that does any better than a 1 year deal would do.  He may very well get multi-year deal offers, not disputing that.  The value of those deals won't be all that great, though.

This is how I see it too. It makes more sense for Pitta to sign a 1 year deal and go out and prove that he can get that big conract. I doubt any team would offer him a multiyear deal with any significant guaranteed money coming off that injury. I think its' fairly likely he comes back to the Ravens next year.

[beanfigger]

The only way Pitta signs a multi-year deal is if a large portion of the total is guaranteed money.  Otherwise, it makes much more sense for him to sign a 1 year deal.  He could perform very well.  It's a gamble, but one worth taking when you're talking 1 year at $3M or 2 years at $6M.  Again, just to throw out a number.  Even at 30, he would be able to without a doubt find a bigger contract than $3M a year.  It just won't be that 4 or 5 year deal that he could've gotten had he not been injured.

 

The guarantee is they key here.  No one is going to offer him tons of guaranteed money.  It's going to be very low.  If I'm Pitta, I take my chances on a 1 year deal and hope to secure $5-8M guaranteed on the next deal.  If Pitta signs a 2 year deal, he could perform very well and be stuck making much less than he could've on the open market.  If he signs a 2 year deal and performs poorly, whatever that team is will cut him and it will essentially be a 1 year deal anyway.

 

Of course, this is all pure speculation.  I think that even if he recovers really well, no team is going to give him a multi-year deal that does any better than a 1 year deal would do.  He may very well get multi-year deal offers, not disputing that.  The value of those deals won't be all that great, though.

 

It seems we have some agreement on what he may get offered.  We just disagree on what's in his best interest.  I think it's very unlikely that he goes out and performs like the Tony Gonzalezes and Jason Wittens of the world in his one year deal and gets some giant guaranteed contract at age 30.  I also think it's very unlikely that he performs so poorly in a multiple year deal that he gets cut after one year, if he's healthy.  If he's not, then this whole conversation is moot.  I think the odds are he plays to the level he's already proven he can, or slightly less, and that he won't feel "stuck" in a deal that will give him another $3-4million in his second year when he makes the team that season.  I actually think it's likely some team is willing to gamble on a 3-year offer, but I'm not confident enough to guarantee that as I am that he at least gets a reasonable 2-year offer.  The only guarantees he'll want in the second year is some kind of injury settlement, which will, again, protect him from dealing with this same thing two years in a row should another freak accident occur, which I still think is more likely than him catching 90+ balls for 15 TDs.

 

This is how I see it too. It makes more sense for Pitta to sign a 1 year deal and go out and prove that he can get that big conract. I doubt any team would offer him a multiyear deal with any significant guaranteed money coming off that injury. I think its' fairly likely he comes back to the Ravens next year.

 

I don't doubt he ends up a Raven again, but I still believe there is a very unlikely chance he goes for a one year deal.  I just feel strongly about this.  I respect others' opinions, but I simply disagree that it is worth the risk for HIM.  The team would be the beneficiary in that scenario, so in some sense I hope I'm wrong and he does come back to us for a one year deal.  I just don't think he wants that.  If it turns out that one year is the best offer he gets initially from us, I see him shopping himself around the league, and I don't think we'll be as happy with that scenario.

[gabefergy]

It seems we have some agreement on what he may get offered.  We just disagree on what's in his best interest.  I think it's very unlikely that he goes out and performs like the Tony Gonzalezes and Jason Wittens of the world in his one year deal and gets some giant guaranteed contract at age 30.  I also think it's very unlikely that he performs so poorly in a multiple year deal that he gets cut after one year, if he's healthy.  If he's not, then this whole conversation is moot.  I think the odds are he plays to the level he's already proven he can, or slightly less, and that he won't feel "stuck" in a deal that will give him another $3-4million in his second year when he makes the team that season.  I actually think it's likely some team is willing to gamble on a 3-year offer, but I'm not confident enough to guarantee that as I am that he at least gets a reasonable 2-year offer.  The only guarantees he'll want in the second year is some kind of injury settlement, which will, again, protect him from dealing with this same thing two years in a row should another freak accident occur, which I still think is more likely than him catching 90+ balls for 15 TDs.

 

 

I don't doubt he ends up a Raven again, but I still believe there is a very unlikely chance he goes for a one year deal.  I just feel strongly about this.  I respect others' opinions, but I simply disagree that it is worth the risk for HIM.  The team would be the beneficiary in that scenario, so in some sense I hope I'm wrong and he does come back to us for a one year deal.  I just don't think he wants that.  If it turns out that one year is the best offer he gets initially from us, I see him shopping himself around the league, and I don't think we'll be as happy with that scenario.

I think you are missing the point. No team is going to give him a lot of money in a multi-year deal after that injury. At best he gets 2-3 years but he wont be given much per year and I doubt much if anything will be guaranteed. If he locks himself into that type of deal and has a big year he is only hurting himself. If he signs a year "prove it deal" he can make some money and set himself up for a pay day after he proves he still has it.

[rmw10]

 

I don't doubt he ends up a Raven again, but I still believe there is a very unlikely chance he goes for a one year deal.  I just feel strongly about this.  I respect others' opinions, but I simply disagree that it is worth the risk for HIM.  The team would be the beneficiary in that scenario, so in some sense I hope I'm wrong and he does come back to us for a one year deal.  I just don't think he wants that.  If it turns out that one year is the best offer he gets initially from us, I see him shopping himself around the league, and I don't think we'll be as happy with that scenario.

 

Just to throw out a scenario, a little more in depth than what I said above:

 

2 options on the table:

1 year, $3M w/ $1M guaranteed

2 years $6M w/ $2M guaranteed

 

If he signs the 2 year deal and doesn't do well - he gets cut after year 1 - deal ends up being 1 year, $3M

If he signs the 2 year deal and does do well - he's stuck making $3M again when he may get more on the open market

If he signs the 1 year deal and doesn't do well - he walks at the end of the year and hopes to get another 1 year deal

If he signs the 1 year deal and does do well - he hits the open market and secures a 3 year deal with guaranteed money

 

I'm taking the 1 year deal all day long if I'm Pitta.  Just for comparison's sake, a worse and oft injured player in Ben Watson was able to secure a 3 year, $12M dollar deal at age 29.  If Pitta reverts to a shell of himself, he can do much better than that on the open market after taking that 1 year "prove it" deal.  It makes absolutely no sense for Pitta to take a multi-year deal with very little guaranteed money.

[5aiah]

 I actually think it's likely some team is willing to gamble on a 3-year offer, but I'm not confident enough to guarantee that as I am that he at least gets a reasonable 2-year offer.  

This is the best situation for him and it is quite likely if he can get back to form. There will definitely be some teams who will gamble on him producing equal to or more than what he did last year and consider him a steal. He could be a steal too but actually it is more likely that desperation gets the best of the lesser GMs in the league. How else does Shonn Greene get that contract? Every franchise doesn't have Ozzie.

[beanfigger]

I think you are missing the point. No team is going to give him a lot of money in a multi-year deal after that injury. At best he gets 2-3 years but he wont be given much per year and I doubt much if anything will be guaranteed. If he locks himself into that type of deal and has a big year he is only hurting himself. If he signs a year "prove it deal" he can make some money and set himself up for a pay day after he proves he still has it.

 

I said earlier that I understand that reasoning.  I'm not missing the point.  I just think it isn't as likely he breaks out and has a huge year than it is that he doesn't and finds himself in the same predicament as this year, or worse.  That's just my opinion.  I'm not saying you're wrong, I just have a different opinion.  I think the odds are more in his favor to get multiple years now.  I know it won't be a ton of money, but he's proven himself enough to get more than peanuts if he's healthy.  Like I said before, if he isn't healthy, we needn't bother having this conversation any further.  I understand your point, and it is logical, but I disagree that it's in his best interest.

[beanfigger]

Just to throw out a scenario, a little more in depth than what I said above:

 

2 options on the table:

1 year, $3M w/ $1M guaranteed

2 years $6M w/ $2M guaranteed

 

If he signs the 2 year deal and doesn't do well - he gets cut after year 1 - deal ends up being 1 year, $3M

If he signs the 2 year deal and does do well - he's stuck making $3M again when he may get more on the open market

If he signs the 1 year deal and doesn't do well - he walks at the end of the year and hopes to get another 1 year deal

If he signs the 1 year deal and does do well - he hits the open market and secures a 3 year deal with guaranteed money

 

I'm taking the 1 year deal all day long if I'm Pitta.  Just for comparison's sake, a worse and oft injured player in Ben Watson was able to secure a 3 year, $12M dollar deal at age 29.  If Pitta reverts to a shell of himself, he can do much better than that on the open market after taking that 1 year "prove it" deal.  It makes absolutely no sense for Pitta to take a multi-year deal with very little guaranteed money.

 

I'm not going to say you're wrong, I just have a difference of opinion.  However, it's interesting that you used Ben Watson to support your reasoning.  I was tempted to use that example to help my explanation in the first place.  He was oft injured, as you said, and got $4million/year at 29.  What's to say Pitta won't get that kind of offer next offseason at 29 if he rehabs fully?  Do you really think he should turn that down to go for more?

 

As far as your scenarios, I do think his offers have a good chance to be better than that, but even if they aren't, I still disagree.  I think your first scenario is extremely unlikely (the one where he gets cut after under-performing the first year of a two-year deal) if he's healthy.  If that did happen, however, he would be in the same position the next season as he would if he signed a one-year deal and under-performed, so that is basically a wash.  If he blows up and proves he's worth $5million/year, than the one-year deal is better for him.  However, I feel it is much more likely that he performs to about the same level as he has performed, which is worth between $3.5-4.25million/year (around what I think he'll be offered), or that he gets hurt again.  If the former happens, he wouldn't really benefit from having to negotiate a new deal the next season that would be worth the same as his one-year deal.  If the latter happens (injury), then it's possible the multi-year deal would benefit him more because he could walk with a possible injury settlement (2-year deal) or stay on and finish his contract the next year (3-year deal that I predict he gets).  I'd take the security of a longer deal because i think odds are better he doesn't outperform his next deal and either gets hurt or plays close to the level of his deal (which for some reason isn't even one of your possible scenarios).  You aren't wrong, and you make sense.  I'd like to say I'd roll the dice and go for the big deal, but Pitta now knows better than anyone how risky that is, and i think he plays it safer this time.

[beanfigger]

This is the best situation for him and it is quite likely if he can get back to form. There will definitely be some teams who will gamble on him producing equal to or more than what he did last year and consider him a steal. He could be a steal too but actually it is more likely that desperation gets the best of the lesser GMs in the league. How else does Shonn Greene get that contract? Every franchise doesn't have Ozzie.

 

This is what I've been saying.  If he wants a decent multi-year deal, he will find one.  It isn't out of the realm of possibilities that we give him one, either.  If we don't, though, I know someone will.

[rmw10]

I'm not going to say you're wrong, I just have a difference of opinion.  However, it's interesting that you used Ben Watson to support your reasoning.  I was tempted to use that example to help my explanation in the first place.  He was oft injured, as you said, and got $4million/year at 29.  What's to say Pitta won't get that kind of offer next offseason at 29 if he rehabs fully?  Do you really think he should turn that down to go for more?

 

As far as your scenarios, I do think his offers have a good chance to be better than that, but even if they aren't, I still disagree.  I think your first scenario is extremely unlikely (the one where he gets cut after under-performing the first year of a two-year deal) if he's healthy.  If that did happen, however, he would be in the same position the next season as he would if he signed a one-year deal and under-performed, so that is basically a wash.  If he blows up and proves he's worth $5million/year, than the one-year deal is better for him.  However, I feel it is much more likely that he performs to about the same level as he has performed, which is worth between $3.5-4.25million/year (around what I think he'll be offered), or that he gets hurt again.  If the former happens, he wouldn't really benefit from having to negotiate a new deal the next season that would be worth the same as his one-year deal.  If the latter happens (injury), then it's possible the multi-year deal would benefit him more because he could walk with a possible injury settlement (2-year deal) or stay on and finish his contract the next year (3-year deal that I predict he gets).  I'd take the security of a longer deal because i think odds are better he doesn't outperform his next deal and either gets hurt or plays close to the level of his deal (which for some reason isn't even one of your possible scenarios).  You aren't wrong, and you make sense.  I'd like to say I'd roll the dice and go for the big deal, but Pitta now knows better than anyone how risky that is, and i think he plays it safer this time.

 

He's not going to get that much because of the risk, and even if he does, it won't be guaranteed.  It all lies in the guaranteed money.  No team is going to offer him a large percentage of his deal as guaranteed money after this year, no matter if he's 100% or 50%.  There's too much risk there, especially since no one is able to see him in game action until after he signs a deal.  He may get offered around $4M a year after this year, but a very small portion of that will be guaranteed.  That's the issue.

 

If he signs a multi-year deal and gets injured, he's not going to make anything.  Because no one is going to give him the guaranteed money, they give him a small injury settlement and send him on his way.  Yeah, he gets a little bit more money this way.  However, if I'm Pitta, I'm going to go ahead and bet on myself against that $1-2M I might make, take the one year deal, and hopefully perform well enough to grab $6-8M after the season.

 

There's no security in signing a multi-year deal after this season unless some stupid team comes and throws a large amount of guaranteed money at him.  He can be cut at any time, and in my example, if he performs, he's stuck making much less than he could had he gambled on himself and hit the market.

 

I think where we disagree is on the size of the gamble.  Pitta isn't giving up but $1-2M most likely if he accepts a one year deal over a two year deal.  I think the possibility of getting 4x that is enough reason alone to take a one year deal.  30 isn't young by any means, but it's still young enough to cash in on a 3 year deal.  It isn't really a risk to bypass a multi-year deal when the amount is so minimal.

[beanfigger]

He's not going to get that much because of the risk, and even if he does, it won't be guaranteed.  It all lies in the guaranteed money.  No team is going to offer him a large percentage of his deal as guaranteed money after this year, no matter if he's 100% or 50%.  There's too much risk there, especially since no one is able to see him in game action until after he signs a deal.  He may get offered around $4M a year after this year, but a very small portion of that will be guaranteed.  That's the issue.

 

If he signs a multi-year deal and gets injured, he's not going to make anything.  Because no one is going to give him the guaranteed money, they give him a small injury settlement and send him on his way.  Yeah, he gets a little bit more money this way.  However, if I'm Pitta, I'm going to go ahead and bet on myself against that $1-2M I might make, take the one year deal, and hopefully perform well enough to grab $6-8M after the season.

 

There's no security in signing a multi-year deal after this season unless some stupid team comes and throws a large amount of guaranteed money at him.  He can be cut at any time, and in my example, if he performs, he's stuck making much less than he could had he gambled on himself and hit the market.

 

I think where we disagree is on the size of the gamble.  Pitta isn't giving up but $1-2M most likely if he accepts a one year deal over a two year deal.  I think the possibility of getting 4x that is enough reason alone to take a one year deal.  30 isn't young by any means, but it's still young enough to cash in on a 3 year deal.  It isn't really a risk to bypass a multi-year deal when the amount is so minimal.

 

I was trying to keep this from becoming a right or wrong type debate because it is all about opinion, but if you want, here goes.  You're crazy if you think there's no way he gets big guaranteed money in a multi-year deal.  Not every team is as sensible as we are.  I think the odds of him ever getting $6-8million/year are almost nothing, regardless of how long his next deal is, so that isn't really a factor in my thought process.  He can certainly get 3 years/$12 million with 5-8 guaranteed.  You've never seen a player coming off a big injury get a big contract?  You really think it's impossible he gets a decent 3-year deal that he can live with even with decent production?  I think you're thinking too rationally for the NFL.

 

-If he gets hurt next year, the one year deal is worse for him.

-If he performs poorly next year, the one year deal is worse for him.

-If he performs to the standard of the contract, it's a wash, except that he would have to negotiate a new deal again unnecessarily if he was only on a one year deal (and it's probably worse for him because he might not get as much being older in said negotiations).

-If he turns into Gronkowski and proves he's worth $8million/year, then the one year deal is better for him.  You really think that is the most likely scenario?

 

I guess you all just think he is sure to go out, stay healthy and have a monster year next year.  If you all think that, what makes you think there aren't any GMs that agree with you that wouldn't want to lock him up to a discounted deal?  If you don't think he's definitely going to go have a career year next year, than you are, in fact, wrong in thinking the one year deal serves HIM best.

[rmw10]

I was trying to keep this from becoming a right or wrong type debate because it is all about opinion, but if you want, here goes.  You're crazy if you think there's no way he gets big guaranteed money in a multi-year deal.  Not every team is as sensible as we are.  I think the odds of him ever getting $6-8million/year are almost nothing, regardless of how long his next deal is, so that isn't really a factor in my thought process.  He can certainly get 3 years/$12 million with 5-8 guaranteed.  You've never seen a player coming off a big injury get a big contract?  You really think it's impossible he gets a decent 3-year deal that he can live with even with decent production?  I think you're thinking too rationally for the NFL.

 

-If he gets hurt next year, the one year deal is worse for him.

-If he performs poorly next year, the one year deal is worse for him.

-If he performs to the standard of the contract, it's a wash, except that he would have to negotiate a new deal again unnecessarily if he was only on a one year deal (and it's probably worse for him because he might not get as much being older in said negotiations).

-If he turns into Gronkowski and proves he's worth $8million/year, then the one year deal is better for him.  You really think that is the most likely scenario?

 

I guess you all just think he is sure to go out, stay healthy and have a monster year next year.  If you all think that, what makes you think there aren't any GMs that agree with you that wouldn't want to lock him up to a discounted deal?  If you don't think he's definitely going to go have a career year next year, than you are, in fact, wrong in thinking the one year deal serves HIM best.

 

He's not getting guaranteed money.  No team in their right mind would give that to him.  If this was an average injury, sure.  However, this is a serious and uncommon injury that affects one of the body parts a TE uses most, the hip.  It's not crazy at all to think he's going to get very little guaranteed money.  There's no way a team is going to throw that much at a guy that is a huge injury risk.  They'll offer him more than 1 year, but with very little guaranteed money.

 

1.  This is true.  Not going to dispute that.

2.  How is it worse?  He's going to get cut if he performs poorly.  The structure of the deal will make the money a wash.

3.  If he's on a one year deal and performs, he has the opportunity to get much more than he would if he was stuck on a 2 year deal.

4.  I'm not saying that's most likely.  There are greater benefits to signing a one year deal.

 

I'm not saying he's going to have a monster year at all.  Again, it's all about the guaranteed portion of the deal.  If he signs a multi year deal after this year, he's not getting a lot.  If he takes a chance and shows even fragments of himself, he's going to be in line for much more guaranteed.  That's all players care about nowadays is the guaranteed portion of their deal.  Even if he only has an average year, he'd still be in line to get much more on the market than he would in the 2nd year of a small deal.

 

If my agent told me to take a 2 year deal with limited guaranteed money, I'd fire him instantly.  It's not the smartest financial move unless a team throws millions at him.  The risk of such a serious injury is just too much for that to happen.

[beanfigger]

No team in their right mind would give that to him.

 

 

This is what I'd like to talk about.  You seem to think that every team in the NFL is making good decisions.  I live in Philly, who will probably pursue Pitta next year if he's available.  You mean to tell me there is not way they risk making him a contract offer with guaranteed money over multiple seasons?  If you think that, you haven't been paying attention.  What about the Jets?  The Dolphins?  The Redskins (is their spending restriction up next year?  If so, they might be dying to make a deal like this)?  The Bills?  The Titans?  The Cardinals?  Check the history of these teams.  They are not rational.  Unless news breaks that Pitta's rehab is not going well, or there are some unforeseen setbacks that are made public, he will get a decent offer.

 

To answer your other questions, I think that playing poorly makes the one year deal worse because I've already said that I highly doubt he plays poor enough to get cut.  Either way, he wouldn't be in good position to negotiate a new deal, but if he had signed a multi-year deal, he still has to get cut before he has to worry about that (meaning it isn't guaranteed that he will have to look for a new deal).  And as far as the playing to his contract's level, I guess it could go either way.  He could be stuck because it's quite possible more teams would be interested after seeing he is, in fact, back to his old self, or he could be in a worse negotiating position because he didn't outplay his contract, so teams might feel it is less likely he maintains that level of play at an older age.  The most likely scenario would be that he remained at the same pay level regardless of how long his original deal was, but he wouldn't have to stress about renegotiating if he was already under contract for the next season or two.

 

Pitta has not played at a Pro Bowl level to this point in his career.  The only way I believe signing a one year deal next year benefits him is if he has a career year next year, coming off an injury, and makes a Pro Bowl.  Then, he will be signing the Pro Bowl contract he earned for the first time in his career at age 30.  I think this is the least likely scenario.

 

Where we have the most difference in opinion is that you believe all teams will act sensibly when it comes to making Pitta an offer and I don't.  I do agree that no team will offer him $6-8million/year with 80% guaranteed, but I don't believe he will ever get that offer in his career, even if he does only sign a one year deal.  He will get multiple year offers next year; they won't be so small that he feels stuck if he returns to the level of play at which he has already performed in his career; and that is what he will be looking for, so he'll sign one of them.  It isn't like we have any proof either way for this argument, so we can keep going back and forth and saying basically the same thing, or we can just agree to disagree.

 

I will end this by saying, good debate.  I enjoyed it.  I don't want to discourage your response, but I feel like we are getting nowhere.  I guess we could go back and look at the latest contracts offered to players coming off injuries, but no two injuries, or players, are the same.  Therefore, I will not bother mentioning the details of Revis's asinine contract he just got from the Bucs.

[rmw10]

 

I will end this by saying, good debate.  I enjoyed it.  I don't want to discourage your response, but I feel like we are getting nowhere.  I guess we could go back and look at the latest contracts offered to players coming off injuries, but no two injuries, or players, are the same.  Therefore, I will not bother mentioning the details of Revis's asinine contract he just got from the Bucs.

 

I respect your opinion completely.  Don't think I dislike you or anything lol.  Just good, old fashioned debate.  

 

For my final statement, I'll keep it pretty simple on why I think teams will act sensibly: the uniqueness and severity of his injury.  It's not common and I think with it being such a question mark, teams aren't going to be willing to throw money at him.

 

I think where this took off is earlier when you said that we were in the same ballpark on the value of the offers he might receive. Now that you think it's going to be a higher dollar figure than me, I can see where you're coming from.  I guess the main debate now is whether he'll get the low dollar deal I'm predicting or the somewhat good money deal you're predicting.  Like you said, that's nothing that can be proven until he actually gets his offers in.

[beanfigger]

I respect your opinion completely.  Don't think I dislike you or anything lol.  Just good, old fashioned debate.  

 

For my final statement, I'll keep it pretty simple on why I think teams will act sensibly: the uniqueness and severity of his injury.  It's not common and I think with it being such a question mark, teams aren't going to be willing to throw money at him.

 

I think where this took off is earlier when you said that we were in the same ballpark on the value of the offers he might receive. Now that you think it's going to be a higher dollar figure than me, I can see where you're coming from.  I guess the main debate now is whether he'll get the low dollar deal I'm predicting or the somewhat good money deal you're predicting.  Like you said, that's nothing that can be proven until he actually gets his offers in.

 

That's right.  How exciting that we will actually be able to really see who is more accurate in a debate.  C'mon, Jerry Jones...I have utter faith in your lack of sensibility...Don't let me down.

[5aiah]

That's right.  How exciting that we will actually be able to really see who is more accurate in a debate.  C'mon, Jerry Jones...I have utter faith in your lack of sensibility...Don't let me down.

How about the Jags throwing a wad of cash at Pitta so they have a pure receiving TE for their brand new QB.

[beanfigger]

How about the Jags throwing a wad of cash at Pitta so they have a pure receiving TE for their brand new QB.

 

I just now somebody will.  We can't just assume he'll come back here on a discount because he got hurt.

[jdynamite]

I'm shocked that so many people think that Pitta will sign a one year deal after what happened this year.  He won't get a giant paycheck, but I have to believe he wants a little more long term security after this offseason.  Maybe everyone knows something I don't, like Pitta is the world's biggest gambler or something?  Some team will offer him more than one year (we probably will, too), and I wholeheartedly believe that's what he'll sign, unless he is uncharacteristically loyal to us and signs a one year deal just to stay in Baltimore.  I think that's too rare to depend on, nowadays.

It would make sense for Pitta to not want to sign a one year deal. Obviously after getting injured in the final year of a deal would make any player wary of signing for a single year with no insurance of a contract followed. But the facts are he may not be offered anything more than year because of questions regarding his health..

Ex. Last season CB Brent Grimes was coming off a Pro-Bowl season, career seemed to be on the rise as a solid top-tier CB, Falcons fail to reach a contract agreement and Franchise him for 1-year, suffers season ending injury, tests the open market and could not find a long term deal had to choose a 1 year deal to prove himself worthy of higher contract next season....

Last season TE Fred Davis was coming off of a 796 yd season (breakout season),(it's also important to note that Davis was no longer backing up Cooley) Redskins tagged him he got injured, all of sudden his potential wasn't worth anything more than a 1 yr deal.....

Totally off topic but last season Cliff Avril turned down a 3yr 30M offer from Detroit basically because he wanted a longer deal for stability, Detroit Tags him, this season the best offer he received was from Seattle 3yrs 15M, ( he didn't take a pay cut to play on a "better team" lol

Teams are beginning to be more conservative with their money in free agency because not many Flashy free agent signings ever payoff....

[beanfigger]

It would make sense for Pitta to not want to sign a one year deal. Obviously after getting injured in the final year of a deal would make any player wary of signing for a single year with no insurance of a contract followed. But the facts are he may not be offered anything more than year because of questions regarding his health..

Ex. Last season CB Brent Grimes was coming off a Pro-Bowl season, career seemed to be on the rise as a solid top-tier CB, Falcons fail to reach a contract agreement and Franchise him for 1-year, suffers season ending injury, tests the open market and could not find a long term deal had to choose a 1 year deal to prove himself worthy of higher contract next season....

Last season TE Fred Davis was coming off of a 796 yd season (breakout season),(it's also important to note that Davis was no longer backing up Cooley) Redskins tagged him he got injured, all of sudden his potential wasn't worth anything more than a 1 yr deal.....

Totally off topic but last season Cliff Avril turned down a 3yr 30M offer from Detroit basically because he wanted a longer deal for stability, Detroit Tags him, this season the best offer he received was from Seattle 3yrs 15M, ( he didn't take a pay cut to play on a "better team" lol

Teams are beginning to be more conservative with their money in free agency because not many Flashy free agent signings ever payoff....

 

I'm don't want to get into this again because I just had a long conversation with others about it.  I'm glad you seem to agree with my reasoning for him to look for a long term deal.  Everyone is different, and every injury is different, so no direct comparison can be made, but my response to all your examples of players that only got one year deals after injury recently is simple...Revis.  There are teams that can be had in this league, and if he truly wants to look for the multi-year deal next year, he will eventually find it.

[gabefergy]

I'm don't want to get into this again because I just had a long conversation with others about it.  I'm glad you seem to agree with my reasoning for him to look for a long term deal.  Everyone is different, and every injury is different, so no direct comparison can be made, but my response to all your examples of players that only got one year deals after injury recently is simple...Revis.  There are teams that can be had in this league, and if he truly wants to look for the multi-year deal next year, he will eventually find it.

A multi-year deal with decent guaranteed money won't be there, and guaranteed money is all that counts. He might get 2-3 years but he wont be making 5M+ a year. If he plays one year and plays well, he could be in line for a real pay-day with actual guarantees. Also, this has nothing to do with him coming back to the Ravens on some kind of discount. It's just how the NFL operates.

[beanfigger]

A multi-year deal with decent guaranteed money won't be there, and guaranteed money is all that counts. He might get 2-3 years but he wont be making 5M+ a year. If he plays one year and plays well, he could be in line for a real pay-day with actual guarantees. Also, this has nothing to do with him coming back to the Ravens on some kind of discount. It's just how the NFL operates.

 

I don't know if he'd have to take a discount to stay in Baltimore.  We could wrap things up with him before he talks to other teams.  I don't know that he'd ever make 5M+/year.  I'm not sure he's shown he's worth that by now, so why would I just assume that he would come back from his injury and perform better?  I do think he will get decent multi-year deal offers with guaranteed money he can be happy with given his production level.  I also think those offers will be in his best interests.  We will find this out, so this back and forth is unnecessary.  We disagree.  He could gamble on himself playing out another contract and see what happens, but I really don't believe there is a great chance his offers the next season, when he will be 30, will be significantly better than the ones he gets next offseason.  Those offers might even be worse depending on how he plays out a hypothetical one year deal.  I just don't see the benefit you all do.  It seems everyone is convinced he will come back and automatically be a Pro Bowler for the first time, and no team will see it coming because they won't offer him anything next offseason, but then they will be clamoring for him the next year.  What if he isn't even convinced he will perform that well?  You think he'll still leave money and years on the table to gamble on himself?

[gabefergy]

I don't know if he'd have to take a discount to stay in Baltimore.  We could wrap things up with him before he talks to other teams.  I don't know that he'd ever make 5M+/year.  I'm not sure he's shown he's worth that by now, so why would I just assume that he would come back from his injury and perform better?  I do think he will get decent multi-year deal offers with guaranteed money he can be happy with given his production level.  I also think those offers will be in his best interests.  We will find this out, so this back and forth is unnecessary.  We disagree.  He could gamble on himself playing out another contract and see what happens, but I really don't believe there is a great chance his offers the next season, when he will be 30, will be significantly better than the ones he gets next offseason.  Those offers might even be worse depending on how he plays out a hypothetical one year deal.  I just don't see the benefit you all do.  It seems everyone is convinced he will come back and automatically be a Pro Bowler for the first time, and no team will see it coming because they won't offer him anything next offseason, but then they will be clamoring for him the next year.  What if he isn't even convinced he will perform that well?  You think he'll still leave money and years on the table to gamble on himself?

So basically you think there is a good chance he won't play well, but some team will still be stupid enough to give him any signficant amount of guaranteed money? You are making my argument for me. As for what he would be worth on the open market based off the last 2 seasons he would be in line for 6-7M. I would have expected a 4 year deal worth about 25M before the injruy happened. Now I think he gets 1 year, 2-3M. If any team signs him for more than 1 year it is most likely the Ravens because they are the team that will be overseeing his rehab, but I doubt he gets more than 1 year with the understanding if he plays well he will get a 3-4 year extension. We'll see what happens next offseason.

[beanfigger]

So basically you think there is a good chance he won't play well, but some team will still be stupid enough to give him any signficant amount of guaranteed money? You are making my argument for me. As for what he would be worth on the open market based off the last 2 seasons he would be in line for 6-7M. I would have expected a 4 year deal worth about 25M before the injruy happened. Now I think he gets 1 year, 2-3M. If any team signs him for more than 1 year it is most likely the Ravens because they are the team that will be overseeing his rehab, but I doubt he gets more than 1 year with the understanding if he plays well he will get a 3-4 year extension. We'll see what happens next offseason.

 

There are only two TEs whose base salaries are over $6mil this season.  Gronkowski averages less than $7mil in his huge contract.  So you think he will play well enough to be one of the best paid TEs in the whole league?  He had a career highs last year of 61 catches, 669 yards and 7 TDs.  To me, that doesn't warrant him to be paid among the best in the league.  I don't think he'll perform bad, like you say.  I think he'll perform like...Dennis Pitta.  I think he'll get offers next year between 3.5-5M/year, which is fair.  I do think there is a better chance he performs worse than he has in the past than for him to go for 95 catches, 1200 yards and 15 TDs, which would warrant him making those huge dollars.  What I'm saying is there is a much more likely chance he doesn't get the huge offers in two years you are all saying he should hold out for (what is he gets injured again?), and I also think he'll get offers according to what he has already shown he's capable of.  He won't get a 5-year deal or anything, but he may never have a chance at that again.  He will get solid 2-3 year offers next year, and I believe that's best for him.  I know you disagree.  Please tell me again, though.

[gabefergy]

There are only two TEs whose base salaries are over $6mil this season.  Gronkowski averages less than $7mil in his huge contract.  So you think he will play well enough to be one of the best paid TEs in the whole league?  He had a career highs last year of 61 catches, 669 yards and 7 TDs.  To me, that doesn't warrant him to be paid among the best in the league.  I don't think he'll perform bad, like you say.  I think he'll perform like...Dennis Pitta.  I think he'll get offers next year between 3.5-5M/year, which is fair.  I do think there is a better chance he performs worse than he has in the past than for him to go for 95 catches, 1200 yards and 15 TDs, which would warrant him making those huge dollars.  What I'm saying is there is a much more likely chance he doesn't get the huge offers in two years you are all saying he should hold out for (what is he gets injured again?), and I also think he'll get offers according to what he has already shown he's capable of.  He won't get a 5-year deal or anything, but he may never have a chance at that again.  He will get solid 2-3 year offers next year, and I believe that's best for him.  I know you disagree.  Please tell me again, though.

You should do some research before posting inaccurately. Jimmy Graham will make 8M+ and set the market after this season. Pitta isnt at the level of Gronk and Graham, but he is just a notch below. Tony G makes 7M a year, and Jason Witten makes just over 7M a year. Jared Cook just signed a 5year 35M deal. Antonio Gates makes 6.6M a year. Even Jermichael Finley makes 7M a year. 

 

4years, 25M is perfectly in line with those deals and his performance. 

[beanfigger]

You should do some research before posting inaccurately. Jimmy Graham will make 8M+ and set the market after this season. Pitta isnt at the level of Gronk and Graham, but he is just a notch below. Tony G makes 7M a year, and Jason Witten makes just over 7M a year. Jared Cook just signed a 5year 35M deal. Antonio Gates makes 6.6M a year. Even Jermichael Finley makes 7M a year. 

 

4years, 25M is perfectly in line with those deals and his performance. 

 

I was talking about base salaries, which I looked up just before my post to make sure I wasn't remembering them incorrectly.  I think he'll get reasonable offers along the lines of 3yr/13-14M, which is just fine for one decent season in the NFL by age 29.  I doubt he will considerably outperform that, either, so it will be just fine for the duration.  At the moment, I don't think he compares to the rest of those TEs in terms of performance.  I don't want to sound like I'm dogging Pitta because I like him, but one good (not great) season does not put you in the upper echelon of TEs.  Him getting hurt this season ended his chances at getting paid like you say he should.

[gabefergy]

I was talking about base salaries, which I looked up just before my post to make sure I wasn't remembering them incorrectly.  I think he'll get reasonable offers along the lines of 3yr/13-14M, which is just fine for one decent season in the NFL by age 29.  I doubt he will considerably outperform that, either, so it will be just fine for the duration.  At the moment, I don't think he compares to the rest of those TEs in terms of performance.  I don't want to sound like I'm dogging Pitta because I like him, but one good (not great) season does not put you in the upper echelon of TEs.  Him getting hurt this season ended his chances at getting paid like you say he should.

It's not just the upper echelon. Finley isnt that great, neither is Jared Cook. Zach Miller makes 6.8M a year. It's the going rate for a quality TE which Pitta certainly is. John Carlson makes 5M a year if that gives you an idea of what the TE market looks like. Pitta had an excellent season last year and the year before that he was money down the stretch once he started taking snaps from Dickson. His numbers look even better once you look at his postseason perfromances, He is definitely a top 10 TE, at least before the injury. That changes everything. Hip injuries are extremely rare and are very difficult to come back from. He wont get anywhere close to 3year 14M after that injury, but like I said we can wait and see.