ProFootballFocus: Comparing performance to cap hit

[BloodRaven]

PFF has a new series that looks into player value based on performance and cap hit. They took the highest cap hit at a position and matched that up with that position’s highest-rated player. Then the second-highest cap hit was matched with the second-highest-graded player, and so on. It's an interesting take on which players are the most overpaid and underpaid.

[url="http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/02/26/performance-based-value-baltimore-ravens/"]http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/02/26/performance-based-value-baltimore-ravens/[/url]

[Guest Mr. Nobody]

wasn't this in the news last week?

[berad]

[quote name='horus13corvineus' timestamp='1362668868' post='1380454']
wasn't this in the news last week?
[/quote]

The article's about a week old but I haven't seen it discussed here.

Looks like our big ticket defenders mostly 'underperformed' - it's just one metric to look at, totally reliant on PFF rankings. Surprised Lardarius isn't up there, considering he missed the majority of the year and they didn't factor in missed time. That means he was either really balling before his injury (which he was) or had a relatively low cap hit in 2012.

[Guest Mr. Nobody]

[quote name='berad' timestamp='1362670851' post='1380493']
The article's about a week old but I haven't seen it discussed here.

Looks like our big ticket defenders mostly 'underperformed' - it's just one metric to look at, totally reliant on PFF rankings. Surprised Lardarius isn't up there, considering he missed the majority of the year and they didn't factor in missed time. That means he was either really balling before his injury (which he was) or had a relatively low cap hit in 2012.
[/quote]

it was in the Late For Work 3/1/2013 [url="http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Late-For-Work-31-Schefter-Joe-Flacco-Will-Be-NFLs-Highest-Paid-Player/f02113eb-353d-4395-a098-7233a72af6fc"]http://www.baltimore...98-7233a72af6fc[/url]

[BloodRaven]

[quote name='berad' timestamp='1362670851' post='1380493']
The article's about a week old but I haven't seen it discussed here.

Looks like our big ticket defenders mostly 'underperformed' - it's just one metric to look at, totally reliant on PFF rankings. Surprised Lardarius isn't up there, considering he missed the majority of the year and they didn't factor in missed time. That means he was either really balling before his injury (which he was) or had a relatively low cap hit in 2012.
[/quote]

They factored in missed time, a lot of guys who missed most or all of the year weren't included.

I think the question this really raises is one we've all avoided, is Terrell Suggs going to bounce back? we could really regret passing on Kruger.

[Ravensfan23]

[quote name='berad' timestamp='1362670851' post='1380493']


The article's about a week old but I haven't seen it discussed here.

Looks like our big ticket defenders mostly 'underperformed' - it's just one metric to look at, totally reliant on PFF rankings. Surprised Lardarius isn't up there, considering he missed the majority of the year and they didn't factor in missed time. That means he was either really balling before his injury (which he was) or had a relatively low cap hit in 2012.
[/quote]

Webb's cap was a little over 2.6M. Before getting hurt i'd say he lived up to it.

Just from a Ravens standpoint in 2013 I wonder if Leach, McClian and Jacoby will perform up to their Cap hits. I don't mean it in a negative way but more so in a what will their roles be.

[BloodRaven]

I'll give Ngata a pass because he's been banged up, he really should have been on IR.

[Ravensfan23]

[quote name='BloodRaven' timestamp='1362672922' post='1380530']
I'll give Ngata a pass because he's been banged up, he really should have been on IR.
[/quote]

I think the way the 2011 season ended in NE made these guys want it that much more in 2012. Guys like Suggs, Ngata, probably Ellerbe, Pollard and definitely Ray should have missed a lot more time then they did. But these guys fought through and brought a Championship back to Baltimore. I appreciate their toughness, grit and willingness to fight through, I just hope guys like Ngata and Suggs didn't put themselves in position to have continual have nagging injuries now into their 30s.

[H8R]

[quote name='BloodRaven' timestamp='1362672922' post='1380530']
I'll give Ngata a pass because he's been banged up, he really should have been on IR.
[/quote]

Sure, give him a pass.. Though you and a bunch of others swore he was still playing at an elite level...

[BloodRaven]

[quote name='H8R' timestamp='1362674522' post='1380568']
Sure, give him a pass.. Though you and a bunch of others swore he was still playing at an elite level...
[/quote]

He was before he got hurt, which is what I actually said.

[Ravenseconbeast]

[quote name='H8R' timestamp='1362674522' post='1380568']


Sure, give him a pass.. Though you and a bunch of others swore he was still playing at an elite level...
[/quote]

We'll see next year. His been getting injured and underperforming more than i thought he would be. I really thought he'd be the type of guy that would get better after his mega-contract. Not really sure anymore.

[arnie_uk]

[quote name='Ravenseconbeast' timestamp='1362676638' post='1380603']


We'll see next year. His been getting injured and underperforming more than i thought he would be. I really thought he'd be the type of guy that would get better after his mega-contract. Not really sure anymore.
[/quote]he hasn't been underperforming when he's been. All of maybe 10 games in two years incl playoffs.

[H8R]

[quote name='BloodRaven' timestamp='1362676421' post='1380599']


He was before he got hurt, which is what I actually said.
[/quote]

He was hurt the whole season... from what people were saying

[H8R]

[quote name='arnie_uk' timestamp='1362679188' post='1380644']
he hasn't been underperforming when he's been. All of maybe 10 games in two years incl playoffs.
[/quote]

Bob Sanders was performing when he wasn't hurt too... Obvioulsy Ngata doesn't have that kind of injuries ... the point is ... Being healthy is of importance!

[arnie_uk]

[quote name='H8R' timestamp='1362679293' post='1380646']


He was hurt the whole season... from what people were saying
[/quote]he was fit about the first four games I thought then done a shoulder then against Houston I think he done the mcl

[arnie_uk]

[quote name='H8R' timestamp='1362679391' post='1380647']


Bob Sanders was performing when he wasn't hurt too... Obvioulsy Ngata doesn't have that kind of injuries ... the point is ... Being healthy is of importance!
[/quote]I know it is, hence the sarcastic all of 10 games. But its not like he got paid and was just happy with the status quo as implied by beast. He's been playing at pro bowl level the first maybe five games the past two seasons and then gets hurt.

Id like to see his snaps cut to fifty or sixty percent. Dominate ngata for 30 plays a game is better than an average one for 50.

[Ravenseconbeast]

[quote name='arnie_uk' timestamp='1362679188' post='1380644']
he hasn't been underperforming when he's been. All of maybe 10 games in two years incl playoffs.
[/quote]

I suppose 'underpeforming' is probably not the right word. Maybe not living up to his contract. He was ranked bottom of +25 in run defense (PFF) and you can see him regressing a little bit even when he was healthy.

[The Raven]

[quote name='Ravenseconbeast' timestamp='1362679636' post='1380652']
I suppose 'underpeforming' is probably not the right word. Maybe not living up to his contract. He was ranked bottom of +25 in run defense (PFF) and you can see him regressing a little bit even when he was healthy.
[/quote]

I can't agree that he was regressing when healthy. Just can't agree with that.

[berad]

[quote name='horus13corvineus' timestamp='1362671191' post='1380499'] it was in the Late For Work 3/1/2013 [url="http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Late-For-Work-31-Schefter-Joe-Flacco-Will-Be-NFLs-Highest-Paid-Player/f02113eb-353d-4395-a098-7233a72af6fc"]http://www.baltimore...98-7233a72af6fc[/url] [/quote]

You're right, the LFW. I had just checked the "forum-side"

[quote name='BloodRaven' timestamp='1362671625' post='1380505'] They factored in missed time, a lot of guys who missed most or all of the year weren't included. I think the question this really raises is one we've all avoided, is Terrell Suggs going to bounce back? we could really regret passing on Kruger. [/quote]

I think they did: from their methodology - [url="https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/02/25/performance-based-value/"]LINK[/url]

[quote]All players who were either active or inactive for at least one game were included[/quote]

So Webb was in there somewhere. Idk how much missed time was factored in, they held it against Ray and Terrell.

[quote name='Ravensfan23' timestamp='1362672584' post='1380526'] Webb's cap was a little over 2.6M. Before getting hurt i'd say he lived up to it. Just from a Ravens standpoint in 2013 I wonder if Leach, McClian and Jacoby will perform up to their Cap hits. I don't mean it in a negative way but more so in a what will their roles be. [/quote]

Small cap hit and he was balling! McClain was definitely struggling throughout the year.

[gabefergy]

PFF has a beef with the Ravens for some reason. Even when players perform extremely well, there is always something that they say to negate it or devalue.

[H8R]

[quote name='arnie_uk' timestamp='1362679608' post='1380651']
I know it is, hence the sarcastic all of 10 games. But its not like he got paid and was just happy with the status quo as implied by beast. He's been playing at pro bowl level the first maybe five games the past two seasons and then gets hurt.

Id like to see his snaps cut to fifty or sixty percent. Dominate ngata for 30 plays a game is better than an average one for 50.
[/quote]

You don't pay a guy 12mil a season to play 1/2 the game... 5 games is less then a 1/3 of the season... and when were generally going deep in the playoffs it's closer to a 1/5 of a season. it's unlikely his health will get better at this stage of the game. So, I'd expect this injured trend to continue until he's a broken down mule playing NT only. His durability went away when he moved to the outside.

[H8R]

[quote name='arnie_uk' timestamp='1362679433' post='1380649']
he was fit about the first four games I thought then done a shoulder then against Houston I think he done the mcl
[/quote]

Fit? lol. Failing the conditions test Nd pulling a hammy on the test tells me he wasn't fit . He got into decent shape by week 4 ... and then hurt himself again.

[H8R]

[quote name='Ravenseconbeast' timestamp='1362679636' post='1380652']


I suppose 'underpeforming' is probably not the right word. Maybe not living up to his contract. He was ranked bottom of +25 in run defense (PFF) and you can see him regressing a little bit even when he was healthy.
[/quote]

He's not the guy of 3 years ago, that's for sure.

[Alexir]

What they say about Ed Reed is spot on. I'll give Suggs a pass but Ngata needs to get healthy and stay healthy. I also think Suggs and Ngatas production could of been down due to inept play at Nose Tackle.

[BloodRaven]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1362682906' post='1380684']
PFF has a beef with the Ravens for some reason. Even when players perform extremely well, there is always something that they say to negate it or devalue.
[/quote]

They do that for every team, I've seen their writers accused of being Ravens fans.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='BloodRaven' timestamp='1362689837' post='1380777']
They do that for every team, I've seen their writers are accused of being Ravens fans.
[/quote]

lol really? They never have anything good to say about the Ravens.

[Medications]

I disagree with Mckinnie and Boldin as being "overvalued", they need to adjust their formula to inflate value for playoff production or something. I think the way they both played in the playoffs that culminated in a SB win justified their cap hits, so I'll ignore their +/- value totals.

For everyone else, they're saying we underpayed, or basically saved $29.5 million, but overpayed $34.77, so in total we overpayed just $5.27 million which isn't bad considering it won us a Superbowl

[arnie_uk]

[quote name='H8R' timestamp='1362685526' post='1380724']


You don't pay a guy 12mil a season to play 1/2 the game... 5 games is less then a 1/3 of the season... and when were generally going deep in the playoffs it's closer to a 1/5 of a season. it's unlikely his health will get better at this stage of the game. So, I'd expect this injured trend to continue until he's a broken down mule playing NT only. His durability went away when he moved to the outside.
[/quote]id rather have him be dominate for half a game 16 games a year, than average for 75 percent of a game 16 games a year.

[arnie_uk]

[quote name='H8R' timestamp='1362685613' post='1380728']


Fit? lol. Failing the conditions test Nd pulling a hammy on the test tells me he wasn't fit . He got into decent shape by week 4 ... and then hurt himself again.
[/quote]first I've heard of any of this...

[Yatagarasu]

Good thing Ozzie isn't going to reconstruct any contracts because obviously Ngata and Suggs haven't been living up to it.

Suggs' contract is near the end and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets released if he has another down season this upcoming year.

Ngata's contract is still in the middle, but he's been breaking down a lot lately probably due to all the double team he has to face. I say we need to invest in another quality DT to reduce the wear and tear of Ngata. Cody did not help much,

Also all the money invested in Webb has been a head case since he tore out both knees. If Webb didn't sign that contract last year, the team would have all the leverage to reduce Webb's contract. Our team seems to be gambling a lot and losing a lot on these contracts with Flacco and Webb.