34 replies to this topic

[callahan09]

This was something that I was very interested in looking into... People are saying Flacco's stats aren't good enough to be in the same conversation as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. Well, I wanted to see what his 2012 stats look like against theirs, with the same number of attempts.

So here's what I did, as the crazy stat tinkerer that I am: I started with the stat lines for all QBs who threw a qualifying amount of passes this season (that's 224 according to the NFL). I am counting post-season stats as well. Then, what I do is I determine the player who had the most attempts among the sample, in this case it is Tom Brady with 731 attempts.

I then use that as the baseline, so I will adjust every stat up to 731 attempts. (In other words, Joe Flacco threw the ball 657 times, so I will multiply all of his stats by (731/657) to determine what he was on track for if he threw the ball that many times.

I've thrown out completion percentage, because frankly we're talking about raw numbers here in terms of yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, where every player on the list is now assumed to have thrown the ball the same number of times. Personally, I don't care if one guy got to 5000 yards by completing 55% and another guy by completing 65% of his passes, as long as they both passed it the same number of times, those yards count equally towards his efficiency for me; the only difference is a clear scheme difference between dink & dunk and big play, but the net result is the same.

So you can see how many yards, touchdowns, and interceptions each qualifying QB would have thrown for if they had the same number of attempts as Tom Brady. You can also see the average. And I've got a couple of other things in each line as well, such as the difference over average (how many more or less yards, touchdowns, and interceptions), the adjusted yards stat (which is calculated as yards + (20 * touchdowns) - (45 * interceptions), the touchdown/interception ratio, and a new item I've called "Points", which I'll address next.

Points is what I've used to rank the players, first of all. But what are points? It's a new measuring stick I came up with for this analysis. Each player in this scenario is assumed to have thrown the ball the same number of times. So what I did was I took the average yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, and I divide each player's individual stats by those averages. The formula is ((Yards/AvgYards) + (TDs/AvgTDs) - (INTs/AvgINTs)) * 100.

100 points is always exactly average, and there is no maximum or minimum (points can even be negative if you throw far more interceptions than average versus your numbers in yards + TDs).

So on with the show:

2012 - Qualifying QB Rankings Adjusted For Max Attempts (731)
1. Aaron Rodgers: 5654 Yards, 49 TD, 11 INT --> +431 Yards, +18 TD, -8 INT = 6163 Adjusted Yards, 4.667:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 209.5 Points
2. Robert Griffin III: 5827 Yards, 39 TD, 11 INT --> +605 Yards, +8 TD, -8 INT = 6128 Adjusted Yards, 3.667:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 179.9 Points
3. Peyton Manning: 5779 Yards, 47 TD, 15 INT --> +557 Yards, +15 TD, -4 INT = 6030 Adjusted Yards, 3.077:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 179.5 Points
4. Tom Brady: 5491 Yards, 38 TD, 10 INT --> +269 Yards, +7 TD, -9 INT = 5801 Adjusted Yards, 3.8:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 173.5 Points
5. Russell Wilson: 5928 Yards, 47 TD, 18 INT --> +706 Yards, +15 TD, -1 INT = 6065 Adjusted Yards, 2.636:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 168.8 Points
6. Ben Roethlisberger: 5316 Yards, 42 TD, 13 INT --> +94 Yards, +11 TD, -6 INT = 5576 Adjusted Yards, 3.25:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 168 Points
7. Colin Kaepernick: 6407 Yards, 34 TD, 12 INT --> +1185 Yards, +3 TD, -7 INT = 6542 Adjusted Yards, 2.8:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 167.5 Points
8. Joe Flacco: 5515 Yards, 37 TD, 11 INT --> +293 Yards, +5 TD, -8 INT = 5749 Adjusted Yards, 3.3:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 164 Points
9. Drew Brees: 5648 Yards, 47 TD, 21 INT --> +426 Yards, +16 TD, +2 INT = 5654 Adjusted Yards, 2.263:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 148.3 Points
10. Matt Ryan: 5667 Yards, 40 TD, 18 INT --> +445 Yards, +9 TD, -1 INT = 5662 Adjusted Yards, 2.235:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 141.7 Points
11. Eli Manning: 5384 Yards, 35 TD, 20 INT --> +162 Yards, +4 TD, +2 INT = 5173 Adjusted Yards, 1.733:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 108.2 Points
12. Cam Newton: 5831 Yards, 29 TD, 18 INT --> +609 Yards, -3 TD, -1 INT = 5590 Adjusted Yards, 1.583:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 107.5 Points
13. Matt Schaub: 5327 Yards, 28 TD, 16 INT --> +105 Yards, -4 TD, -3 INT = 5154 Adjusted Yards, 1.714:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 105 Points
14. Philip Rivers: 5002 Yards, 36 TD, 21 INT --> -220 Yards, +5 TD, +2 INT = 4787 Adjusted Yards, 1.733:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 100.9 Points
--. AVERAGE: 5222 Yards, 31 TD, 19 INT --> 0 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT = 4997 Adjusted Yards, 1.656:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 100 Points
15. Josh Freeman: 5325 Yards, 35 TD, 22 INT --> +103 Yards, +4 TD, +3 INT = 5031 Adjusted Yards, 1.588:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 97.2 Points
16. Carson Palmer: 5199 Yards, 28 TD, 18 INT --> -24 Yards, -3 TD, -1 INT = 4953 Adjusted Yards, 1.571:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 94.7 Points
17. Tony Romo: 5531 Yards, 32 TD, 21 INT --> +309 Yards, 0 TD, +2 INT = 5198 Adjusted Yards, 1.474:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 93.5 Points
18. Sam Bradford: 4911 Yards, 28 TD, 17 INT --> -311 Yards, -3 TD, -2 INT = 4692 Adjusted Yards, 1.615:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 91.8 Points
19. Andy Dalton: 4973 Yards, 35 TD, 22 INT --> -249 Yards, +4 TD, +3 INT = 4678 Adjusted Yards, 1.588:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 90.4 Points
20. Ryan Fitzpatrick: 4922 Yards, 35 TD, 23 INT --> -300 Yards, +3 TD, +4 INT = 4574 Adjusted Yards, 1.5:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 82.7 Points
21. Christian Ponder: 4442 Yards, 27 TD, 18 INT --> -780 Yards, -4 TD, -1 INT = 4170 Adjusted Yards, 1.5:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 76 Points
22. Blaine Gabbert: 4370 Yards, 24 TD, 16 INT --> -852 Yards, -8 TD, -3 INT = 4134 Adjusted Yards, 1.5:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 75.9 Points
23. Jay Cutler: 5109 Yards, 32 TD, 24 INT --> -113 Yards, +1 TD, +5 INT = 4687 Adjusted Yards, 1.357:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 75.4 Points
24. Nick Foles: 4687 Yards, 17 TD, 14 INT --> -535 Yards, -15 TD, -5 INT = 4397 Adjusted Yards, 1.2:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 69.7 Points
25. Matthew Stafford: 4994 Yards, 20 TD, 17 INT --> -228 Yards, -11 TD, -2 INT = 4627 Adjusted Yards, 1.176:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 69.5 Points
26. Andrew Luck: 5004 Yards, 25 TD, 20 INT --> -218 Yards, -7 TD, +1 INT = 4580 Adjusted Yards, 1.211:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 66.9 Points
27. Michael Vick: 4919 Yards, 25 TD, 21 INT --> -303 Yards, -6 TD, +2 INT = 4482 Adjusted Yards, 1.2:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 63.9 Points
28. Ryan Tannehill: 4975 Yards, 18 TD, 20 INT --> -247 Yards, -13 TD, +1 INT = 4454 Adjusted Yards, .923:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 49.4 Points
29. Chad Henne: 4946 Yards, 26 TD, 26 INT --> -276 Yards, -5 TD, +7 INT = 4293 Adjusted Yards, 1:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 40.1 Points
30. Jake Locker: 5066 Yards, 23 TD, 26 INT --> -156 Yards, -8 TD, +7 INT = 4379 Adjusted Yards, .909:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 36 Points
31. Brandon Weeden: 4786 Yards, 20 TD, 24 INT --> -436 Yards, -12 TD, +5 INT = 4100 Adjusted Yards, .824:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 27.9 Points
32. Mark Sanchez: 4652 Yards, 21 TD, 29 INT --> -570 Yards, -10 TD, +10 INT = 3765 Adjusted Yards, .722:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 2.6 Points
33. Matt Cassel: 4740 Yards, 16 TD, 32 INT --> -482 Yards, -16 TD, +13 INT = 3631 Adjusted Yards, .5:1 TD/INT Ratio --> -26 Points

(Yes, that does say NEGATIVE 26 points for Cassel!)

The difference between Flacco and Brady, for instance, is:



1. Tom Brady: 5491 Yards, 38 TD, 10 INT = 5801 Adjusted Yards, 3.8:1 TD/INT Ratio
2. Joe Flacco: 5515 Yards, 37 TD, 11 INT = 5749 Adjusted Yards, 3.3:1 TD/INT Ratio

Flacco compared to Brady would have: +24 Yards, -1 TD, +1 INT

And between Flacco and Ryan (adjusted for 692 attempts, which was Matt Ryan's figure, the most between the two):


1. Joe Flacco: 5221 Yards, 35 TD, 11 INT = 5442 Adjusted Yards, 3.3:1 TD/INT Ratio
2. Matt Ryan: 5365 Yards, 38 TD, 17 INT = 5360 Adjusted Yards, 2.235:1 TD/INT Ratio

Flacco compared to Ryan would have: -144 Yards, -3 TD, -6 INT

He compares very, very favorably to both, as you can see.

Hey, if you want to see any specifics besides what I've shown, just let me know. I can compare just certain players at your request, I can compare different seasons or ranges of time, whatever you can think of just ask.

Here is comparing the 7 active Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in their 2012 seasons:


QB Rankings Adjusted For Max Attempts (731)
1. Aaron Rodgers: 5654 Yards, 49 TD, 11 INT --> +113 Yards, +7 TD, -3 INT = 6163 Adjusted Yards, 4.667:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 145.6 Points
2. Tom Brady: 5491 Yards, 38 TD, 10 INT --> -50 Yards, -4 TD, -4 INT = 5801 Adjusted Yards, 3.8:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 119.9 Points
3. Peyton Manning: 5779 Yards, 47 TD, 15 INT --> +238 Yards, +5 TD, +1 INT = 6030 Adjusted Yards, 3.077:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 109.9 Points
4. Joe Flacco: 5515 Yards, 37 TD, 11 INT --> -26 Yards, -5 TD, -3 INT = 5749 Adjusted Yards, 3.3:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 109.5 Points
5. Ben Roethlisberger: 5316 Yards, 42 TD, 13 INT --> -225 Yards, 0 TD, -1 INT = 5576 Adjusted Yards, 3.25:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 106 Points
-. AVERAGE: 5541 Yards, 42 TD, 14 INT --> 0 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT = 5735 Adjusted Yards, 2.922:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 100 Points
6. Drew Brees: 5648 Yards, 47 TD, 21 INT --> +107 Yards, +5 TD, +7 INT = 5654 Adjusted Yards, 2.263:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 69.6 Points
7. Eli Manning: 5384 Yards, 35 TD, 20 INT --> -157 Yards, -7 TD, +6 INT = 5173 Adjusted Yards, 1.733:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 39.5 Points

Edited by callahan09, 06 March 2013 - 03:52 PM.

[Moderator 3]

So, Flacco ranks right up there with the veteran pocket passers? I would guess that the mobile rookies will taper off over time as their injuries mount and teams do a better job of game planning for them.

[BMORElegacy]

This just shows me what I already knew. Flacco was a victim of Cam's horrid playcalling and neutered game plans. I'm very excited to see how Joe will open up the passing game, and entire offense, under Caldwell's tutelage.

[PurpleCityLights]

Dont care bout the numbers, all I know is every elite QB we played he out played them.........

[jimmypowder]

Dont care bout the numbers, all I know is every elite QB we played he out played them.........

in spades!

[MrPlankton]

Nice list. I also expect to see improvements in Flacco's numbers next season without Cam.

[Ravensfan23]

Dont care bout the numbers, all I know is every elite QB we played he out played them.........

Aaron Rodgers is the only QB joe has yet to take out. Among the elite that is. I can't wait for that game this season. As far as Joe's numbers, all the talk about average numbers will go out the window. That's the next foolish thing he'll take off the list of things that guyys like Jamie Dukes talk about.

2010: Can't win in Pittsburgh.....DONE
2011: Can't beat Ben.....DONE
2012: Can't win a Super Bowl....DONE

He'll have a huge season this year. Flacco's numbers under Caldwell was so much better on the road. His numbers we already great at home under Cam and to do it as well on the road. Wow. You also can't talk about him not doing it against the best defenses because SF and Denver had great defenses. Flacco will put the team on his back again in 2013 and squash all talks about if he was worth it.

[awholelottahaloti]

Dont care bout the numbers, all I know is every elite QB we played he out played them.........

Agreed. But can we please stop using that word.

[i82much]

Just a thought about your methodology - I don't know about the validity of your scaling technique. I think part of the reason Brady has more attempts is because their passing game is a higher-percentage, short passing game. So to extrapolate and say Joe could have had as many throws as Brady is probably not the case.

Don't take that as a criticism of Flacco, or as a negative comment on your post. Just some thoughts about the validity of the analysis. So many factors go into how many attempts a QB has. What I do know is Flacco was simply incredible after the O-line shuffle and coordinator change, and we WON THE FRICKIN' SUPERBOWL BABY!!!

[Sizzlebshu]

This was something that I was very interested in looking into... People are saying Flacco's stats aren't good enough to be in the same conversation as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. Well, I wanted to see what his 2012 stats look like against theirs, with the same number of attempts.

So here's what I did, as the crazy stat tinkerer that I am: I started with the stat lines for all QBs who threw a qualifying amount of passes this season (that's 224 according to the NFL). I am counting post-season stats as well. Then, what I do is I determine the player who had the most attempts among the sample, in this case it is Tom Brady with 731 attempts.

I then use that as the baseline, so I will adjust every stat up to 731 attempts. (In other words, Joe Flacco threw the ball 657 times, so I will multiply all of his stats by (731/657) to determine what he was on track for if he threw the ball that many times.

I've thrown out completion percentage, because frankly we're talking about raw numbers here in terms of yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, where every player on the list is now assumed to have thrown the ball the same number of times. Personally, I don't care if one guy got to 5000 yards by completing 55% and another guy by completing 65% of his passes, as long as they both passed it the same number of times, those yards count equally towards his efficiency for me; the only difference is a clear scheme difference between dink & dunk and big play, but the net result is the same.

So you can see how many yards, touchdowns, and interceptions each qualifying QB would have thrown for if they had the same number of attempts as Tom Brady. You can also see the average. And I've got a couple of other things in each line as well, such as the difference over average (how many more or less yards, touchdowns, and interceptions), the adjusted yards stat (which is calculated as yards + (20 * touchdowns) - (45 * interceptions), the touchdown/interception ratio, and a new item I've called "Points", which I'll address next.

Points is what I've used to rank the players, first of all. But what are points? It's a new measuring stick I came up with for this analysis. Each player in this scenario is assumed to have thrown the ball the same number of times. So what I did was I took the average yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, and I divide each player's individual stats by those averages. The formula is ((Yards/AvgYards) + (TDs/AvgTDs) - (INTs/AvgINTs)) * 100.

100 points is always exactly average, and there is no maximum or minimum (points can even be negative if you throw far more interceptions than average versus your numbers in yards + TDs).

So on with the show:

2012 - Qualifying QB Rankings Adjusted For Max Attempts (731)
1. Aaron Rodgers: 5654 Yards, 49 TD, 11 INT --> +431 Yards, +18 TD, -8 INT = 6163 Adjusted Yards, 4.667:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 209.5 Points
2. Robert Griffin III: 5827 Yards, 39 TD, 11 INT --> +605 Yards, +8 TD, -8 INT = 6128 Adjusted Yards, 3.667:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 179.9 Points
3. Peyton Manning: 5779 Yards, 47 TD, 15 INT --> +557 Yards, +15 TD, -4 INT = 6030 Adjusted Yards, 3.077:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 179.5 Points
4. Tom Brady: 5491 Yards, 38 TD, 10 INT --> +269 Yards, +7 TD, -9 INT = 5801 Adjusted Yards, 3.8:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 173.5 Points
5. Russell Wilson: 5928 Yards, 47 TD, 18 INT --> +706 Yards, +15 TD, -1 INT = 6065 Adjusted Yards, 2.636:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 168.8 Points
6. Ben Roethlisberger: 5316 Yards, 42 TD, 13 INT --> +94 Yards, +11 TD, -6 INT = 5576 Adjusted Yards, 3.25:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 168 Points
7. Colin Kaepernick: 6407 Yards, 34 TD, 12 INT --> +1185 Yards, +3 TD, -7 INT = 6542 Adjusted Yards, 2.8:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 167.5 Points
8. Joe Flacco: 5515 Yards, 37 TD, 11 INT --> +293 Yards, +5 TD, -8 INT = 5749 Adjusted Yards, 3.3:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 164 Points
9. Drew Brees: 5648 Yards, 47 TD, 21 INT --> +426 Yards, +16 TD, +2 INT = 5654 Adjusted Yards, 2.263:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 148.3 Points
10. Matt Ryan: 5667 Yards, 40 TD, 18 INT --> +445 Yards, +9 TD, -1 INT = 5662 Adjusted Yards, 2.235:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 141.7 Points
11. Eli Manning: 5384 Yards, 35 TD, 20 INT --> +162 Yards, +4 TD, +2 INT = 5173 Adjusted Yards, 1.733:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 108.2 Points
12. Cam Newton: 5831 Yards, 29 TD, 18 INT --> +609 Yards, -3 TD, -1 INT = 5590 Adjusted Yards, 1.583:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 107.5 Points
13. Matt Schaub: 5327 Yards, 28 TD, 16 INT --> +105 Yards, -4 TD, -3 INT = 5154 Adjusted Yards, 1.714:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 105 Points
14. Philip Rivers: 5002 Yards, 36 TD, 21 INT --> -220 Yards, +5 TD, +2 INT = 4787 Adjusted Yards, 1.733:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 100.9 Points
--. AVERAGE: 5222 Yards, 31 TD, 19 INT --> 0 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT = 4997 Adjusted Yards, 1.656:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 100 Points
15. Josh Freeman: 5325 Yards, 35 TD, 22 INT --> +103 Yards, +4 TD, +3 INT = 5031 Adjusted Yards, 1.588:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 97.2 Points
16. Carson Palmer: 5199 Yards, 28 TD, 18 INT --> -24 Yards, -3 TD, -1 INT = 4953 Adjusted Yards, 1.571:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 94.7 Points
17. Tony Romo: 5531 Yards, 32 TD, 21 INT --> +309 Yards, 0 TD, +2 INT = 5198 Adjusted Yards, 1.474:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 93.5 Points
18. Sam Bradford: 4911 Yards, 28 TD, 17 INT --> -311 Yards, -3 TD, -2 INT = 4692 Adjusted Yards, 1.615:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 91.8 Points
19. Andy Dalton: 4973 Yards, 35 TD, 22 INT --> -249 Yards, +4 TD, +3 INT = 4678 Adjusted Yards, 1.588:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 90.4 Points
20. Ryan Fitzpatrick: 4922 Yards, 35 TD, 23 INT --> -300 Yards, +3 TD, +4 INT = 4574 Adjusted Yards, 1.5:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 82.7 Points
21. Christian Ponder: 4442 Yards, 27 TD, 18 INT --> -780 Yards, -4 TD, -1 INT = 4170 Adjusted Yards, 1.5:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 76 Points
22. Blaine Gabbert: 4370 Yards, 24 TD, 16 INT --> -852 Yards, -8 TD, -3 INT = 4134 Adjusted Yards, 1.5:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 75.9 Points
23. Jay Cutler: 5109 Yards, 32 TD, 24 INT --> -113 Yards, +1 TD, +5 INT = 4687 Adjusted Yards, 1.357:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 75.4 Points
24. Nick Foles: 4687 Yards, 17 TD, 14 INT --> -535 Yards, -15 TD, -5 INT = 4397 Adjusted Yards, 1.2:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 69.7 Points
25. Matthew Stafford: 4994 Yards, 20 TD, 17 INT --> -228 Yards, -11 TD, -2 INT = 4627 Adjusted Yards, 1.176:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 69.5 Points
26. Andrew Luck: 5004 Yards, 25 TD, 20 INT --> -218 Yards, -7 TD, +1 INT = 4580 Adjusted Yards, 1.211:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 66.9 Points
27. Michael Vick: 4919 Yards, 25 TD, 21 INT --> -303 Yards, -6 TD, +2 INT = 4482 Adjusted Yards, 1.2:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 63.9 Points
28. Ryan Tannehill: 4975 Yards, 18 TD, 20 INT --> -247 Yards, -13 TD, +1 INT = 4454 Adjusted Yards, .923:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 49.4 Points
29. Chad Henne: 4946 Yards, 26 TD, 26 INT --> -276 Yards, -5 TD, +7 INT = 4293 Adjusted Yards, 1:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 40.1 Points
30. Jake Locker: 5066 Yards, 23 TD, 26 INT --> -156 Yards, -8 TD, +7 INT = 4379 Adjusted Yards, .909:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 36 Points
31. Brandon Weeden: 4786 Yards, 20 TD, 24 INT --> -436 Yards, -12 TD, +5 INT = 4100 Adjusted Yards, .824:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 27.9 Points
32. Mark Sanchez: 4652 Yards, 21 TD, 29 INT --> -570 Yards, -10 TD, +10 INT = 3765 Adjusted Yards, .722:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 2.6 Points
33. Matt Cassel: 4740 Yards, 16 TD, 32 INT --> -482 Yards, -16 TD, +13 INT = 3631 Adjusted Yards, .5:1 TD/INT Ratio --> -26 Points

(Yes, that does say NEGATIVE 26 points for Cassel!)

The difference between Flacco and Brady, for instance, is:



1. Tom Brady: 5491 Yards, 38 TD, 10 INT = 5801 Adjusted Yards, 3.8:1 TD/INT Ratio
2. Joe Flacco: 5515 Yards, 37 TD, 11 INT = 5749 Adjusted Yards, 3.3:1 TD/INT Ratio

Flacco compared to Brady would have: +24 Yards, -1 TD, +1 INT

And between Flacco and Ryan (adjusted for 692 attempts, which was Matt Ryan's figure, the most between the two):


1. Joe Flacco: 5221 Yards, 35 TD, 11 INT = 5442 Adjusted Yards, 3.3:1 TD/INT Ratio
2. Matt Ryan: 5365 Yards, 38 TD, 17 INT = 5360 Adjusted Yards, 2.235:1 TD/INT Ratio

Flacco compared to Ryan would have: -144 Yards, -3 TD, -6 INT

He compares very, very favorably to both, as you can see.

Hey, if you want to see any specifics besides what I've shown, just let me know. I can compare just certain players at your request, I can compare different seasons or ranges of time, whatever you can think of just ask.

Here is comparing the 7 active Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in their 2012 seasons:


QB Rankings Adjusted For Max Attempts (731)
1. Aaron Rodgers: 5654 Yards, 49 TD, 11 INT --> +113 Yards, +7 TD, -3 INT = 6163 Adjusted Yards, 4.667:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 145.6 Points
2. Tom Brady: 5491 Yards, 38 TD, 10 INT --> -50 Yards, -4 TD, -4 INT = 5801 Adjusted Yards, 3.8:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 119.9 Points
3. Peyton Manning: 5779 Yards, 47 TD, 15 INT --> +238 Yards, +5 TD, +1 INT = 6030 Adjusted Yards, 3.077:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 109.9 Points
4. Joe Flacco: 5515 Yards, 37 TD, 11 INT --> -26 Yards, -5 TD, -3 INT = 5749 Adjusted Yards, 3.3:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 109.5 Points
5. Ben Roethlisberger: 5316 Yards, 42 TD, 13 INT --> -225 Yards, 0 TD, -1 INT = 5576 Adjusted Yards, 3.25:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 106 Points
-. AVERAGE: 5541 Yards, 42 TD, 14 INT --> 0 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT = 5735 Adjusted Yards, 2.922:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 100 Points
6. Drew Brees: 5648 Yards, 47 TD, 21 INT --> +107 Yards, +5 TD, +7 INT = 5654 Adjusted Yards, 2.263:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 69.6 Points
7. Eli Manning: 5384 Yards, 35 TD, 20 INT --> -157 Yards, -7 TD, +6 INT = 5173 Adjusted Yards, 1.733:1 TD/INT Ratio --> 39.5 Points

Your analysis is as flawed for the stats you do include as it would be for the ones you exclude. You can't just assume that all qbs would have the same number of attempts because that stat varies widely based on scheme, offensive talent, and game situation

Perfect example: SF/HOU run the ball more than any other team in the league. Normally, they will never exceed Tom Brady in pass attempts for obv reasons. However, you can argue that some weeks Hou threw more passes than NE because game situation dictated that (Jax, and Detroit come to mind). Note here i'm just picking this as an example to demonstrate the concept. That is what I am trying to emphasize and at 8 in the morning Im too tired to go and check this out and confirm it. Just take this for the concept.

On top of that, you cannot include the post season because the number of games a qb plays as well as the number of home games a qb plays skews the numbers. Flacco is much better at home for example, than on the road in general. The extra home game a competitive qb plays up his numbers more than normal.

A qb in the regular season plays 8 home games, and 8 away games. The playing field is level in all cases except for the London game where one team ultimately loses a home game. Not including Buffalo's game in Canada.

Edited by Sizzlebshu, 07 March 2013 - 08:13 AM.

[Militant X 1]

i mean no harm with this; but i'm just wondering how many more threads are going to be made about Flacco's stats and numbers compared to other QB's? cause imo... at this point...after winning the Superbowl and MVP...that stuff just doesn't matter!

~Mili

[BALTIMOREFLACCO]

This is awesome thanks

[frangecko112]

Did you know that flacco is 5-2 when he has 45+ passes in a game? that winning percentage of throwing 45+ times is the best in nfl history. I'm not saying i want flacco to throw 45+ passes every game but i find that stat to be very interesting.

[callahan09]

Did you know that flacco is 5-2 when he has 45+ passes in a game? that winning percentage of throwing 45+ times is the best in nfl history. I'm not saying i want flacco to throw 45+ passes every game but i find that stat to be very interesting.

Interesting. And also: The only active quarterbacks with over 10 games at more than 35 attempts (that's 31 players), who don't have a losing record in such games, are Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Flacco.

In fact, since 1960, among all QBs with more than 5 games of 35+ attempts, the only guys with a .500 or better record in those games are:


1. Tom Brady: 61-30
2. Peyton Manning: 75-49
3. Joe Montana*: 43-29
4. Donovan McNabb: 41-31
5. Steve Bono: 10-8
6. Dan Marino*: 69-63
7. Jack Kemp: 13-12
8. Aaron Rodgers: 21-21
9. Steve Young*: 21-21
10. Joe Flacco: 14-14
11. Rodney Peete: 6-6

Edited by callahan09, 08 March 2013 - 11:04 AM.

[callahan09]

Also interesting is that of all QBs (since 1960) with at least 500 attempts (that's 297 players), Flacco has the 4th best career INT%.

The only players with a lower INT% are Aaron Rodgers (1.72%), Tom Brady (2.12%), and Neil O'Donnell (2.17%). Flacco (2.24%) is just above Donovan McNabb (2.26%). He also happens to 16th in QB Rating (just above Bart Starr & Brett Favre).

[hawkprey]

Rodgers never has comeback wins and he holds onto the ball too long.
Brees throws too many interceptions.
Eli has stretches of severe ineptitude.
Peyton struggles in the postseason.
Brady is immobile and hasn't won the big game in forever.
Big Ben holds onto the ball too long and can't stay healthy.

Yet we excuse them all because we decided to just crown them and look the other way.

Conversely, Flacco has nothing wrong with his game but people come up with excuses to why he's successful.

Edited by hawkprey, 08 March 2013 - 11:14 AM.

[MrPlankton]

Rodgers never has comeback wins and he holds onto the ball too long.
Brees throws too many interceptions.
Eli has stretches of severe ineptitude.
Peyton struggles in the postseason.
Brady is immobile and hasn't won the big game in forever.
Big Ben holds onto the ball too long and can't stay healthy.

Yet we excuse them all because we decided to just crown them and look the other way.

Conversely, Flacco has nothing wrong with his game but people come up with excuses to why he's successful.

From what I've seen it's usually the following:

1. He doesn't put up "elite" numbers in the regular season, so he's a turn-off to FF fans. Honestly, I don't care if Flacco ever throws for 4K/5K yards, they're gonna run the ball more when you've got a great RB in Rice and an up-and-coming one in Pierce.

2. They think all he does is "throw the ball up in the air hoping Boldin or Smith will catch it"/gets "bailed out by his receivers". Obviously false. And why not make him jump for it, you know, where Boldin is at his best? Put it where only he can get it. Maybe he just plays with the strengths of his receivers in mind.

Also, apparently taking advantage of the opposing team's poor actions (see: the 70 yard bomb in Denver) doesn't count.

3. They are jealous and/or mad that the Ravens have won a Super Bowl and that Flacco was named MVP of the game.

4. They think the entire postseason run was just a fluke and that 11 TDs no INTs topping it off with an SB win wih him as MVP are meaningless.

5. They are just looking for reasons to hate on him. Be it he came from a D2 college, he doesn't put up Matt Ryan numbers in the regular season, he's not charismatic, etc.

Flacco really has stepped it up. His pocket awareness has greatly improved and he has shown he can throw the deep when he needs to. He also got what he sorely needed: an O-line that can buy him time and a better playcaller in Caldwell. I still think he has a ways to go before solidfying his place as a top 5 QB, but I'm sure next season will be great for him.

Edited by MrPlankton, 08 March 2013 - 12:02 PM.

[Tiz]

Aaron Rodgers is the only QB joe has yet to take out. Among the elite that is. I can't wait for that game this season. As far as Joe's numbers, all the talk about average numbers will go out the window. That's the next foolish thing he'll take off the list of things that guyys like Jamie Dukes talk about.

2010: Can't win in Pittsburgh.....DONE
2011: Can't beat Ben.....DONE
2012: Can't win a Super Bowl....DONE

He'll have a huge season this year. Flacco's numbers under Caldwell was so much better on the road. His numbers we already great at home under Cam and to do it as well on the road. Wow. You also can't talk about him not doing it against the best defenses because SF and Denver had great defenses. Flacco will put the team on his back again in 2013 and squash all talks about if he was worth it.

Now we need dukes to say
"Can't win back to back"

[callahan09]

Take a look at this video of every Aaron Rodgers touchdown from his 2011 MVP season:


One that jumps out to me is the play that starts at 4:22, Greg Jennings catches a deep pass with no defender within 20 yards of him! And then he practically walks 45 yards to the end zone.

A couple other noteworthy plays:

1:38 - Throws 10 yards to an open receiver who then evades 4 defenders for 25 yards after the catch to the end zone.

1:45 - He has forever and a day to wait for his guy to get open, and he gets VERY wide open (one defender chasing him, a good 5 yards behind), for an easy deep pass.

1:53 - He has an open receiver for about a 10 yard gain, who then sprints 70 yards to the end zone, avoiding 5 defenders coming at him from various angles.

2:24 - He has forever to stand and wait for his guy to get open, who gains a good three or four steps on 3 different defenders. Must be nice to have a guy with no one within 3 steps of him, AND not a single pass rusher getting even the slightest pressure on you.

3:30 - Has an open receiver who proceeds to make several cuts and break about 3 tackles to get into the end zone after like 18 yards after the catch.

3:53 - Has a pretty well open receiver who makes some cuts and breaks a tackle and sprints into the end zone for about 65 yards after the catch.

5:31 - Look at this guy break that tackle and get into the end zone. When is the last time a Ravens receiver broke a tackle like that to get into the end zone?

6:00 - When your line of scrimmage is the 5 yard line, how the hell do you get a receiver THAT WIDE OPEN in the end zone?

6:08 - Defender completely misplays the ball, lets the receiver gain a step on him, there's no help over the top and he just goes straight into the end zone. This defender looks just like Rahim Moore on this play.

6:39 - Another red zone play where the receiver gets unbelievably wide open in the end zone. Nobody anywhere near him!

7:31 - He's got forever to wait, and his guys gets a good few steps open on all defenders, they never stood a chance.

I'm also seeing a ton of jump balls and contested catches happening in here. These are some monstrously good receivers he has. They get wide open. They fight for yards after the catch, they make ridiculous cuts and break tackles to keep the play alive. They make contested grabs. Over the shoulder grabs, blind grabs. I see guys making catches with the ball mere inches above the dirt. Guys are pulling miracles with their feet to stay in bounds on some of these catches. Do we have any great sideline receivers like that who will catch the ball out of bounds by extending the body and somehow keeping the toes down in bounds? What more could a guy ask for?

I could probably do a similar analysis for any of the great QBs. They have playmakers who help them out a lot making catches and yards after the catch. But because Flacco's receivers got open on a couple plays, made a couple of tough catches, he deserves no credit? I don't see the pundits and fans of other teams digging into the individual plays to discount and discredit the other great QBs for the help they get.

[The Raven]

Take a look at this video of every Aaron Rodgers touchdown from his 2011 MVP season:


One that jumps out to me is the play that starts at 4:22, Greg Jennings catches a deep pass with no defender within 20 yards of him! And then he practically walks 45 yards to the end zone.

A couple other noteworthy plays:

1:38 - Throws 10 yards to an open receiver who then evades 4 defenders for 25 yards after the catch to the end zone.

1:45 - He has forever and a day to wait for his guy to get open, and he gets VERY wide open (one defender chasing him, a good 5 yards behind), for an easy deep pass.

1:53 - He has an open receiver for about a 10 yard gain, who then sprints 70 yards to the end zone, avoiding 5 defenders coming at him from various angles.

2:24 - He has forever to stand and wait for his guy to get open, who gains a good three or four steps on 3 different defenders. Must be nice to have a guy with no one within 3 steps of him, AND not a single pass rusher getting even the slightest pressure on you.

3:30 - Has an open receiver who proceeds to make several cuts and break about 3 tackles to get into the end zone after like 18 yards after the catch.

3:53 - Has a pretty well open receiver who makes some cuts and breaks a tackle and sprints into the end zone for about 65 yards after the catch.

5:31 - Look at this guy break that tackle and get into the end zone. When is the last time a Ravens receiver broke a tackle like that to get into the end zone?

6:00 - When your line of scrimmage is the 5 yard line, how the hell do you get a receiver THAT WIDE OPEN in the end zone?

6:08 - Defender completely misplays the ball, lets the receiver gain a step on him, there's no help over the top and he just goes straight into the end zone. This defender looks just like Rahim Moore on this play.

6:39 - Another red zone play where the receiver gets unbelievably wide open in the end zone. Nobody anywhere near him!

7:31 - He's got forever to wait, and his guys gets a good few steps open on all defenders, they never stood a chance.

I'm also seeing a ton of jump balls and contested catches happening in here. These are some monstrously good receivers he has. They get wide open. They fight for yards after the catch, they make ridiculous cuts and break tackles to keep the play alive. They make contested grabs. Over the shoulder grabs, blind grabs. I see guys making catches with the ball mere inches above the dirt. Guys are pulling miracles with their feet to stay in bounds on some of these catches. Do we have any great sideline receivers like that who will catch the ball out of bounds by extending the body and somehow keeping the toes down in bounds? What more could a guy ask for?

I could probably do a similar analysis for any of the great QBs. They have playmakers who help them out a lot making catches and yards after the catch. But because Flacco's receivers got open on a couple plays, made a couple of tough catches, he deserves no credit? I don't see the pundits and fans of other teams digging into the individual plays to discount and discredit the other great QBs for the help they get.

Exactly!!! People say Flacco rode his receivers, but they fail to realize how much Rodgers' receivers do for him. He certainly doesn't ride them, and I'm in no way comparing Joe to Rodgers, but good receivers definitely help quarterbacks more than some like to admit.