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Idle Talk and Market Values


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#1 RavensDE

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 01:22 PM

Idle Talk
There is much talk of what players say and how they think or feel but those day to day pieces of information have little bearing on the scenarios at play. The player will let the agent perform his or her duties to better use the market and reach maximum dollar value for their contract. A man who is his own agent better be smart and willing to impart time and expertise to negotiating his contract and drawing maximum competing interest. In the end the player agent or no has the final decision to make about which negotiated position he would like to choose from, but his preference essentially has a monetary value on it that I would expect to be relatively small. Is preference worth a million dollars? Two million? Ten? How about if you know you’re only going to work 10 years at maximum? Five years max? What if this is your last payday? Market conditions and negotiating positions dictate about 90% of the contracts values and all the relative choices unless a person is making choices in opposition to their self-interest, and that sir is just plain un-American.

Market Value
A player’s market value is determined by the competing interests of teams willing and able to pay for his services. The other factor is the leagues supply of suitable alternatives for his skills. Those factors play out in the market as teams negotiate with agents, both of whom must have knowledge and understanding of the current market conditions (how good is the player? Who else is out there that could serve them similarly?). Teams that ignore these concepts overpay and players/agents who ignore these concepts are underpaid while transactions involving both informed parties meet at or near the market value.

Real Value
The actual value a player has to the team through his contributions on and off the field add to his real value to the team. Anything a player does to help the team helps his real value. This value is seen differently around the league. The team’s real value of the player is independent of the market value. Some teams use scouting agencies and some have in-house assessment operations. The goal is to win the super bowl but to do that you must have the best team. The goal in free-agency (for those who play it correctly, ie Patriots, Ravens) is to get the most valuable player at the lowest price. Teams follow the market and find players they value higher than the market value and fit within their cost structure / cap strategy.

Ravens Dogma
“A penny saved is a player earned.” – Me (and probably 100 others)
The Ravens are stingy. We are in cap hell because we have so many great players not because we overpay. In any given season some players diminish in skill but those factors that can be anticipated such as age are negotiated into the contracts. If an unanticipated event happens or the contract is no longer in the Ravens favor the team has had no trouble cutting players in an honest and professional manner (Mason, Heap, Foxwell, Carr etc.). Likewise the Raven’s will let valuable and important pieces walk in free agency if the market value is too high, that is to say the market value is higher than their determined “Real Value” or more than the Ravens can spare in cap space, whichever is lower. The Ravens will make the best offer they can make quietly with an attempt at mutual respect and let the players know they are aware that players must do what is best for themselves and families, just as the teams serves its own interests (JJàSD, WilsonàSkins, ReddingàColts and now Krugerà).

The magic to the game is the cap. The teams must get the best real value from every dollar. We will draft the best player available (aside from QB) at any position despite “team need” with only ties going to need (or relatively small bumps to team value). Why? Because we are maximizing our value per dollar. If needs be we can fill most gaps with cheap vets (Carr’s 1st contract, Corey Ivy, Ayenbadejo, Graham, Redding, B.Williams) and let our young players develop. Players that we sign are “at a Raven’s price” meaning that they present a high ratio of real value per dollar. When we sign stars despite their high price tags we pay the lower end of the range for market value every time and we use our negotiating positions to maximum effect. The team feels the players are just that good or we wouldn’t pay them. Would we let those guys walk or play under the franchise tag or hold-out or whatever? Absolutely. Would we let Joe walk? Under the right conditions yes but at the minimum we feel he is worth the franchise tag and there are very few scenarios I see with him leaving. (a whole different argument begins here about what the parameters are in the market for Joe and the two tag’s).

Some examples of supply and demand in Free Agency
Bryant McKinnie
Demand side pros: Played great in the playoffs, excellent pass protector, good game tape to watch (the playoffs, his solid career), currently healthy. Teams always need good pass protectors.
Demand side cons: Average run blocker, Motivation concerns/weight problem, professionalism issues (late to camp, sex scandal etc), age. The teams with conservative front offices may not even consider him because of concerns about ethic and ill judgment meaning there are less teams in the running. He is also older meaning he is only a short term solution.
Outlook of market supply: The league is not overloaded with available quality tackles in free agency or the draft and he would be a short term improvement for most teams in the league.
Prediction: McKinnie will sign a short term deal for a relatively low price tag for a starting LT. That puts us in the running but more likely than not someone who needs him more and has more cap space will pay him more.

Paul Kruger
Demand side pros: Very Good Pass Rusher, very good athlete, professionalism, toughness, played in the flexible Ravens defense, 2 sacks in the super bowl, age. Kruger is young and talented and can get to the quarterback. That’s a highly demanded tagline.
Demand side cons: Run stopping, pass coverage, tweener. Showed average play in the run game and in coverage (which forced the Ravens to allow him to rush more, forcing Suggs into a more coverage/less rush role despite Suggs’ better rush skills (due to the concept of comparative advantage). I think plenty of teams can live with that.
Outlook of Market Supply: Getting to the quarterback is a valuable skill that not many players have been able to evidence. The league is filled with players that have the “talent” for pass rushing and no numbers or evidence. It is in short supply of players who have shown it between the whistles. It’s a good time to be a free agent pass rusher as always.
Prediction: Kruger loves it here and I question his level of success without us just as I do for all of our expatriates but he is long gone. He bloomed a year too late and is far out of our reach. Goodbye Paul I hope you get big money, it doesn’t work out and you come back.
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#2 hawkprey

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 02:08 PM

McKinnie started, then took a paycut last year, then sat on the bench waiting for his time. He showed a lot of gratuity to the organization and I'd think we could sign him cheaper than other teams will.

Boldin, Jacoby, Flacco, Ellerbe, Reed, Kruger... they've all said they want to remain Ravens. The bad part about winning the Super Bowl is it drives players pricetags up. The good part is they're more likely to be loyal to the team.

Kruger is probably the only one of those whose pricetag would far exceed the price at which we can retain him - so he'll most likely be gone. Everyone else is likely to stay. Also I'm not too sure Cary's market value is as high as people think it is. But we probably won't keep him.
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#3 izvoodoo

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 03:36 PM

Cap hell?

Have you seen the Steelers? That is cap hell.
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Hawkprey is the best poster on the ravens forums.

Officially.


#4 Jitamon

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 01:06 AM

I am no GM, however I feel if a player rejects a fair offer then plays out his contract playing well, that the Ravens FO is already scheming to replace him.The best they do is offer a fair contract again or let them walk. It is how Ozzie and Company do things.
It has been proven he will let a very good player, a much needed player walk because they refused his offer. He also stated very clearly that the organization learned from the last super bowl mistakes and are prepared for this so that the team does not suffer this tie around.
This kind of thought and planning is what makes our front office the best in football.
I believe we will all be surprised when the cuts and the draft happen. I know I cant wait to see the 2013 version of Ravens Football.

Edited by Jitamon, 17 February 2013 - 01:09 AM.

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#5 Ravenseconbeast

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 02:18 PM

Cap hell?

Have you seen the Steelers? That is cap hell.


They are going to fall flat on their face next year.

We can be too, if we go overboard on paying our FA too high.
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#6 izvoodoo

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 03:05 PM

They are going to fall flat on their face next year.

We can be too, if we go overboard on paying our FA too high.

We're actually in the middle of the pack in terms of Cap.
http://www.spotrac.c...acker/nfl/2013/
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Hawkprey is the best poster on the ravens forums.

Officially.





#7 Tiz

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:29 PM

Cap hell?

Have you seen the Steelers? That is cap hell.


Them and Detroit
Worse thing about Detroit is they are in cap hell and have nothing of value to show for getting there
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#8 B-more Ravor

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 09:22 PM

We're actually in the middle of the pack in terms of Cap.
http://www.spotrac.c...acker/nfl/2013/


Those numbers aren't accurate and only include the 49 players (many making minimum salaries) presently under contract. It does not include the team's RFAs (Pitta, AJones, Dickson, etc) and ERFAs. Once those guys are tendered, much/most of that Cap space will go away. And, obviously, that doesn't include Flacco.
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#9 Jitamon

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 12:54 AM

Here is a great article about market values for 2013 http://russellstreet...ency-preview-2/
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#10 Capo

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 03:19 AM

McKinnie started, then took a paycut last year, then sat on the bench waiting for his time. He showed a lot of gratuity to the organization and I'd think we could sign him cheaper than other teams will.


That’s what I thought, until I saw this interview the other day. Seems like his mind is elsewhere…


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